Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, September 7th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Jim Feist
Rangers at Mariners
Pick: Over
A pair of Top 11 offenses in baseball clash in Safeco. Texas is on a 12-3-1 run over the total. Starter A.J. Griffin (4.41 ERA) has a 4.61 ERA on the road walking 24 batters in 54+ innings. Seattle is home on a 6-1 run over the total, including 7-1 over against the American League West. Starter Ariel Miranda (5.76 ERA) goes for Seattle, allowing more hits than innings pitched plus 54 base runners in 29+ innings. The Over is 7-3 in the Mariners last 10 home games, plus 5-2 over when they clash in Seattle.
Jim Feist
Rangers at Mariners
Pick: Over
A pair of Top 11 offenses in baseball clash in Safeco. Texas is on a 12-3-1 run over the total. Starter A.J. Griffin (4.41 ERA) has a 4.61 ERA on the road walking 24 batters in 54+ innings. Seattle is home on a 6-1 run over the total, including 7-1 over against the American League West. Starter Ariel Miranda (5.76 ERA) goes for Seattle, allowing more hits than innings pitched plus 54 base runners in 29+ innings. The Over is 7-3 in the Mariners last 10 home games, plus 5-2 over when they clash in Seattle.
Bruce Marshall
Phillies at Marlins
Pick: Phillies
The Marlins have almost played their way out of the NL playoff picture and look a very risky favorite for tonight's game vs. the Phils, on the verge of a series sweep. The last couple of starts by Jeremy Hellickson have not been good, but for most of the season he has been reliable for Phils manager Pete Mackanin, with a 3.88 ERA. Andrew Cashner is not the pitcher Miami can count upon to break a slump, as evidence by his last start when allowing 6 runs in only 5 IP last Friday at Cleveland.
Rocketman
Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
Play: Baltimore -107
The Baltimore Orioles travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Rays on Wednesday afternoon. Baltimore is 75-62 SU overall this year while Tampa Bay comes in with a 58-78 SU overall record on the season. Dylan Bundy is 6-4 with a 3.76 ERA overall this year. Drew Smyly is 6-11 with a 4.94 ERA overall this season. Baltimore is allowing only 3 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 2.6 runs per game in dome games this season. Tampa Bay is scoring only 3.9 runs per game at home this year and 4.1 runs per game in day games this season. Tampa Bay is allowing 5.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Baltimore is 10-3 overall vs Tampa Bay this year. Tampa Bay is 26-48 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. We'll recommend a small play on Baltimore today!
Stephen Nover
Pittsburgh -125
Jameson Taillon has become the Pirates' best pitcher. I trust him to end Pittsburgh's eight-game losing streak here.
The Cardinals have never faced Taillon, who has a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight home starts. The Pirates are 8-3 in Taillon's last 11 starts. Taillon is a great control pitcher having walked only 12 in 83 innings.
This is a must-win spot for the Pirates, trailing the Cardinals by 5 1/2 games for a wild-card spot. The Cardinals may be a bit fat and happy here having won the first two games of this series, including pulling one out last night by scoring four runs in the ninth inning. This also marks the end of St. Louis' nine-game road trip. So the Cardinals' focus may be a bit off as they return home to host the Brewers on Thursday.
Along with a play-on Taillon and this being a good spot for the Pirates the third part of this handicap is a fade on Cardinals starter Mike Leake. He defines mediocrity in my book with a 9-9 record and 4.56 ERA. Leake hasn't pitched in more than two weeks having been sidelined by shingles.
The Pirates know Leake well having faced him 27 times with current members batting .278 against him. I'm not a fan of Leake to start with and I certainly don't like him when he's rusty and doesn't figure to go deep into the game.
Brad Wilton
My Wednesday comp play goes early on Baltimore to complete the sweep against a Tampa Bay team they have owned this season.
The O's enter play today with wins in 9 of the last 10 against the Rays, and starter Dylan Bundy is on a 6-3 uptick his last 9 decisions, and he just pitched his club to a big win over the Yankees his last time out.
Drew Smyly is 4-1 in his career against the O's, but that loss did come the last time he faced them on in June, as he allowed 8 runs in his 5 innings of work against Baltimore.
Orioles need this sweep desperately, and they will get it today.
4* BALTIMORE
Chris Jordan
Gotta love the way the New York Yankees have responded since Alex Rodriguez bowed out of baseball. The Bronx Bombers has won 12 of 21 since beginning life without A-Rod, and they come into this game having won three in a row.
Don't look now, but the pinstripes are 3.5 games back in the American League wild card race - the same distance they were on Aug. 13, the day after Rodriguez's release. They have won six of 10 and are maintaining well-played ball at Yankee Stadium. New York is 39-28 at home this season.
Meanwhile, the once A.L. East-leading Blue Jays arrive after appear to have run into a buzzsaw on 161st Street, and will conclude their series with the Yankees with their ninth straight road game in 10 days. This team is tired. And this team is not about to keep up with the Yankees.
During a 16-9 run, the Yankees have outscored their opponents 127-106, averaging more than five runs per game.
I'm banking on another win tonight.
5* YANKEES
Chris Jordan
Gotta love the way the New York Yankees have responded since Alex Rodriguez bowed out of baseball. The Bronx Bombers has won 12 of 21 since beginning life without A-Rod, and they come into this game having won three in a row.
Don't look now, but the pinstripes are 3.5 games back in the American League wild card race - the same distance they were on Aug. 13, the day after Rodriguez's release. They have won six of 10 and are maintaining well-played ball at Yankee Stadium. New York is 39-28 at home this season.
Meanwhile, the once A.L. East-leading Blue Jays arrive after appear to have run into a buzzsaw on 161st Street, and will conclude their series with the Yankees with their ninth straight road game in 10 days. This team is tired. And this team is not about to keep up with the Yankees.
During a 16-9 run, the Yankees have outscored their opponents 127-106, averaging more than five runs per game.
I'm banking on another win tonight.
5* YANKEES
Scott Delaney
My free play for Wednesday night is going to be the Kansas City Royals over the Minnesota Twins, after last night's wild one at Target Field. The Twins led 3-2 for much of the game, then the Royals tied it late. Fast forward to the top of the ninth, when the defending World Series champions scored seven times to produce a 10-3 victory.
The momentum from that will carry over in this one, as the Royals will keep things going, while striving to get back into the playoffs. Kansas City has won 21 of 29 to become relevant in the playoff conversation. Meanwhile, the Twins have lost 17 of 19 games now, and will struggle once again here.
Play Kansas City here, as it gets past Minny. Don't list the pitchers, not a smart idea tonight.
2* ROYALS
Jeff Benton
Your Wednesday freebie is the Red Sox on the Run Line over the Padres.
San Diego did win Monday's meeting, 2-1, but Boston rebounded with the dominant 5-1 win last night.
Same story tonight, as David Price comes into this one having won each of his last 5 starts. In those starts, the Red Sox have won them all by no less than 4 runs, and Price has allowed no more than 3 runs in any of those wins!
Jarred Cosart will counter and is coming off a start in which he allowed 7 runs without making it out of the 5th inning.
I have a feeling this one see the Red Sox score early and often, and Price keeps the Padres bats quiet for the better part of the night.
Boston on the Run Line will be easy money.
4* BOSTON -1.5
Brandon Lee
White Sox -118
Chicago is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Tigers on Wednesday. The White Sox bounced back from a loss in the series opener to take yesterday's matchup 2-0 behind a great performance from starter Miguel Gonzalez. I look for Detroit's hitters to struggle again here against lefty Jose Quintana, who has a 3.04 ERA in 27 starts and an even better 2.70 ERA in 11 home starts. Chicago's offense should be able to provide enough run support, as they face off against the struggling Anibal Sanchez. He's just 5-12 with a 5.99 ERA in 23 starts. Most of those struggles have come on the road, where he's 2-6 with an awful 7.36 ERA in 12 road starts. Tigers are 1-10 in Sanchez's last 11 starts following a loss.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -116
The Baltimore Orioles have a lot at stake right now. They are trying to chase down Toronto and Boston for the AL East lead, but they are also trying to just salvage a spot in the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Rays have nothing to play for but pride on the other hand.
I like the value we are getting with the Orioles today as small favorites, especially considering the edge they have on the mound in this one. Dylan Bundy is 6-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.177 WHIP with 53 strikeouts over 52 2/3 innings this season.
He'll be opposed by Drew Smyly, who is 6-11 with a 4.94 ERA over 26 starts while allowing 29 homers in 155 innings. Smyly has posted a 5.60 ERA in his last three starts as well. He has given up 13 earned runs and 5 homers over 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Orioles for a 10.97 ERA.
Tampa Bay is 1-9 (-9.7 Units) against the money line after two straight losses by 4 runs or more over the last two seasons. The Rays are 20-45 in their last 65 vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings.
Matt Josephs
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees +1½
Bryan Mitchell makes his 2016 debut for the Yankees on Wednesday as they continue their series with the Jays. Mitchell has a 4.29 ERA over six starts in the minors. He actually pitched his best in Triple-A where he allowed two runs and eight hits in nine innings striking out 14. Mitchell is facing a Toronto team hitting .235 on the road and .242 in their last seven games. Dellin Betances should be available in this one after not being used on Tuesday. Marcus Stroman is 5-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 14 road starts for the Jays. He has allowed nine runs and 14 hits in his last two starts against light hitting Tampa Bay and the Twins. The Yankees are 39-28 at home hitting .256 as a team there. They have won three straight and five of their last seven. Toronto's bullpen blew another one last night and now has 27 losses and 16 blown saves on the season. I think there's some value on the Yankees runline in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Mets/Reds Under 8½
We are getting some big time value on the total in today's afternoon matchup between the Reds and Mets. Two of the NL's best starters will be facing off in this one and runs are going to be at a premium.
Cincinnati gives the ball to Anthony Desclafani, who is one of the most underrated starters in the majors. Since joining the rotation in June, Desclafani has gone 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 16 starts. He's been absolutely dominant in his last two outings, giving up just 2 runs on 10 hits in 16 innings of work. The Mets counter with Noah Syndergaard, who is 12-8 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 26 starts. Syndergaard has been dominant on the road with a 2.63 ERA in 11 starts and has a 1.23 ERA and 0.545 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
UNDER is 20-8 in Desclafani's last 28 starts when listed as an underdog, 9-1 in the Mets last 10 after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less in 4 straight games and 14-5 in New York's last 19 day road games.