Dave Price
San Francisco Giants +106
I like the price we are getting with the San Francisco Giants as road underdogs to the Colorado Rockies today. While the Giants have everything to play for and are fighting to make the playoffs, the Rockies are out of contention. Albert Suarez has held his own in limited action this season, going 1-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 8 starts. Jorge De La Rosa should not be favored here considering he's 7-7 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.652 WHIP in 21 starts. The Rockies are 0-7 in De La Rosa's last 7 Wednesday starts.
Larry Ness
St. Louis vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
The St Louis Cardinals have taken the first two of a three-game series with the Pirates in Pittsburgh, 12-6 and 9-7. The Cards hit five HRs last night (three in the ninth inning, alone) and now own at least one HR in 25 straight games, which ties an NL record. The 73-64 Cards are just a half-game back of the Giants for the NL’s top wild card spot but are also only one game up on the Mets for the NL’s second wild card spot. Pittsburgh’s loss last night made in EIGHT in a row for the Pirates, who now, at 67-70, find themselves 5 1/2 games back in trying secure a wild card berth for a FOURTH consecutive season.
The Pirates badly need to avoid a home sweep Wednesday and will send rookie Jameson Taillon (3-4, 3.25 ERA) to the mound to face the Cards’ Mike Leake (9-9, 4.56 ERA). Leake hasn’t pitched since August 21 but returns from a stay on the DL (shingles) to make his 28th career starts against the Pirates. He’s 9-5 with a 3.28 ERA all-time vs Pittsburgh, although his teams are just 12-15 in all of his starts against them. Taillon was Pittsburgh’s No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft (No. 2 overall pick that year) and has lived up to expectations here in 2016. He’s recorded a quality start in nine of his last 10 outings, allowing just 19 ERs in those 10 starts for a 3.11 ERA.
David Banks
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners +105
The AL’s best team is the Texas Rangers winners of seven in a row before a 7-6 loss to Houston on Sunday. Beginning a four-game series with Seattle on Monday, the Rangers have exactly what it takes to make a pennant and World Series run. On Wednesday, the third game of the series, right-hander A.J. Griffin will start for the Rangers against lefty Ariel Miranda of Seattle.
The Mariners, 69-67 heading into Monday’s game, are 12.5 games out of first place and are sitting in third in the AL West. Seattle was making a move toward the postseason but then promptly lost seven of their last eight games. They still have one of the more powerful lineups in the American League with DH Nelson Cruz and his 35 homers (tied for fourth in the AL) and 82 RBIs. Robinson Cano bats .304 with 31 homers and 84 RBIs and third baseman Kyle Seager adds 25 home runs, 86 RBIs, and hits a respectable .290.
But, it is the Rangers that may be the scariest team in baseball. Any pitcher having to face Ian Desmond, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, and Rougned Odor in the No. 2 through 5 slots and then have to go up against catcher Jonathan Lucroy at No. 6 all the while facing the Rangers’ best hitter, Elvis Andrus (.295), in the No. 9 slot has to wonder how he can do it. It is that kind of lineup that allowed the Rangers to average 9.5 runs per game during their recent seven-game win streak.
Miranda, who was previously with Baltimore, is just 2-1 on the season. He won his last appearance last week, an 11-8 win over the Los Angeles Angels. He went six innings and allowed five hits, four runs, while striking out five. He will have his hands full trying to slow down Texas and will need the support of the Mariners heavy hitters if Seattle is to have success on Wednesday.
Bruce Marshall
Orioles -106
The Orioles have regained their balance the past couple of days at The Trop and look to complete the series sweep on Wednesday afternoon. A few recent efforts by Orioles rookie starter Dylan Bundy have been shaky but he did pitch five shutout innings vs. the Yankees in his last outing on Friday. Rays starter Drew Smyly has allowed five homers in his last three starts, bad news vs.n the O's.
Buster Sports
Houston at Cleveland
Play: Under 8.5
The Indians and the Astros play Game 3 of their 4 game series in Cleveland tonight. Taking the hill for the Astros is RH Doug Fister (12-10, 3.91 ERA) and he goes up against the Indians RH Carlos Carrasco (10-7, 3.06 ERA) Fister has pitched well for the Astros this year and has pitched really well against the Indians in his career. He has a 2.72 ERA with a WHIP of 0.966 when starting against the Indians. As for Carrasco he has been on fire as of late. In his last 3 starts he has a 1.40 ERA with a WHIP of 1.035. Over his career against the Astros he has a 2.13 ERA with a WHIP of 0.869. It looks like we might have a good old pitchers duel in Cleveland tonight. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 22-4-3 in the last 29 meetings between these clubs.
Oskeim Sports
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
Play: Philadelphia Phillies +117
Miami right-hander Andrew Cashner toes the rubber with a 5.00 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 4.71 xFIP and a 4.75 SIERA in 23 appearances this season (22 starts). The 29-year-old's command has been an issue this season (9.7% BB%; 3.87 BB/9), and he posted a 5.48 ERA and 5.01 xFIP in August with an alarming 12.5% (5.06 BB/9) walk rate.
From a technical standpoint, Miami is a money-burning 1-10 in its last eleven games, 7-20 in its last 27 games versus a right-handed starter and 0-5 in Cashner's last five outings. In contrast, the Phillies are 19-9 in their last 28 games versus teams with a losing record (4-1 L/5 on the road), 9-3 in Jeremy Hellickson's last 12 starts, 5-1 in Hellickson's last six road starts and 4-0 in his last four outings against Miami.
I also like the fact that Hellickson is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 8 career starts against the Marlins, while the Phillies own a 7-1 record in those contests.
Scott Spreitzer
San Francisco at Colorado
Play: Colorado -117
Albert Suarez will make his ninth start of the season and in his last four appearances he has allowed 11 runs and 19 hits in just 14 1/3 innings. Suarez heads into Coors Field with a 5.09 road ERA giving up 20 earned runs and 36 hits in 35 1/3 innings. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA since the All-Star break. Jorge De la Rosa gave up five runs in five innings in a 14-7 Colorado win over Arizona on Friday, however, all the runs were unearned and the Rockies have won his last three starts. San Francisco has lost five of its last six road games against left-handed starters and Colorado has won 10 of De La Rosa's last 13 home starts against the Giants. Also, Colorado has won 59 of De La Rosa's last 79 home starts overall. The Giants are 23rd in the majors with a .721 OPS versus lefties.
SPORTS WAGERS
OAKLAND -105 over L.A. Angels
This is a day game after a night game between two teams going nowhere so one can expect the Angels to sit some of their vets. Our position here is that Oakland cares more while the Angels will look forward to a day off tomorrow before returning home to face the contending Rangers for a three-game weekend set. It’s also rookie starter v rookie starter here and we give a big edge to not only Oakland’s rookie but to the A’s bullpen as well.
We suppose one could call Alex Meyer a rookie considering he’s pitched in only four MLB games in his career with two of those coming last year and two coming this year. Meyer is now 26-years-old and has spent the past five seasons in the minors where he has thrown 458 innings. He has a very impressive 532 K’s in those 458 innings but the problem is the 195 walks he’s issued. In his only start this year on May 3, Meyer lasted just 2.2 innings against the free-swinging Astros after walking three batters and allowing three hits and three earned runs. His xERA in that start was 6.99. In one relief appearance in late April, Meyer surrendered five hits in one inning and walked a better also. Those two aforementioned appearances came as a member of the pitching starved Minnesota Twins but at the deadline the Twinkies were able to deal him and Ricky Nolasco for Hector Santiago and minor leaguer Alan Busenitz. Meyer has thrown just 11 innings since August 12, He’s suffered two bouts of shoulder inflammation already this year that landed him on the DL. Once a major sought after prospect that was deemed a “can’t miss” top of the rotation guy, Minnesota finally gave up on Meyer when they dealt him for a nobody on deadline day.
When a team like Minnesota, who has not had an ace since Jack Morris in 1991, gives up on you, it is telling. Of all the teams in MLB, Minnesota is the very last one that can afford to give up on a prospect so they had to be damn sure about giving up on this one. That’s all the info we need to proceed against Meyer here.
The Athletics rookie is Jharel Cotton. The A’s promoted this 24-year-old from Triple-A to make his major league debut today (Wednesday, September 7). Cotton was obtained via trade from the Dodgers at the trade deadline and he certainly has a clear path to the starting rotation. Though not blessed with ideal size (5’11”), he is a terrific athlete. He’s gained velocity as he’s gotten older and now sits in the 91-93 mph range. He can also reach back and hit 96 mph on occasion. Cotton owns two breaking balls but his best pitch is his plus change-up that serves as his go-to pitch. It is potent against hitters from both sides and his arm speed is exactly the same as his other pitches. Cotton’s fastball also gives him additional deception, as he changes speeds with it as well as cleverly adding movement. Some scouts still see him eventually moving to the bullpen because of his natural arm action and effort-filled delivery. He could become a dynamic late-innings arm but he’s added stamina over the years and his size has yet to be a negative factor. He also pitched in the 2016 Futures Game. Over his last 12 starts in the very difficult Pacific Coast League, Cotton’s oppBA against was .220 or less in every single start. That’s incredible. Cotton has all the tools. He limits walks, he keeps the ball down in the zone and he can strike people out too. Oakland has tremendous value here as a small favorite with the superior rookie and a more favorable situation.
Atlanta +210 over WASHINGTON
Stephen Strasburg returns from the DL for this start and while it is quite conceivable that he thrives, it is also possible that he struggles, as many pitchers do their first game back. It’s usually oversimplified to say "health is everything" but take a gander at Strasburg’s skills history. Start with his xERA, move to his control/K-rates/command and first-pitch strike rate/swinging strike rate then to his overall skills. Strasburg has pitched around ankle, neck, back and oblique injuries since arriving and still dominates for stretches. "What if?”. Nonetheless, we deal with what is and Strasburg is too big a risk at a price like this against the pesky Braves and against a pitcher that will never be priced in this range again anytime soon.
Keep Mike Foltynewicz at the top of your list of undervalued pitchers because he is on the verge of exploding onto the scene. If Foltynewicz was pitching for a team like the Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays or Cubbies among others he would be a big favorite almost every start. It took a little time but Foltynewicz has now shown sustained signs in 2016 of translating his wicked raw stuff into skills. In spite of a 4.31 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, Foltynewicz has posted an impressive collection of skills: 8.2 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9, 43% grounders. Even more impressive was his 11.1% swing and miss rate in July and August and 33% ball%, a reflection of both his stuff and improving volume of strikes. In addition to his mid-90s fastball that has been highly regarded by scouts, Foltynewicz is getting a 10%+ swing and miss rate on four additional pitches. The window to buy low on him will close quickly, which makes too good to pass up on at a price like this. Incidentally, the Braves have been playing very competitive baseball over the past month and remain a tough out.
San Fran +101 over COLORADO
Albert Suarez already had been tabbed the starter in what would have been Matt Cain’s rotation spot against the Cubs on Sept. 2 and Suarez more than held his own in allowing two earned runs on three hits in his five innings. Manager Bruce Bochy has stated his intent to make Suarez the fifth starter, which means that Cain’s next appearance out of the bullpen will be only his fourth in what would be his 312th career game. Including the outing vs. Chicago, Suarez has started eight games for the Giants in 2016, with a 1.12 WHIP, 7.1 K’s/9 and 3.0 BB’s/9 in 42 innings during those starts. Suarez’s overall skills compares favorably to Matt Moore and Jeff Samardzija, making him a a decent, very under the radar target here.
Southpaw Jorge de la Rosa has a 10%/45% dominant start/disaster start split this season that is reflected in his uninspiring 5.09 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Dude has walked 55 batters in 120 innings for a troubling BB’s/9 rate of 4.0. de la Rosa will throw the occasional gem but his velocity drop and age assures us of some abbreviated starts too. There are more warning flags surrounding de La Rosa as well. His first-pitch strike rate over his past seven starts was a league low, 51%. His first-pitch strike rate in his last start was 44%. de la Rosa is 35-years-old and it is common to see him throw over 100 pitches to get through five innings. He's laboring through almost every inning he pitches. The increase in his ball % is a sure sign of fatigue. Do you really want to spot a tag at this park with a pitcher who is walking far too many hitters, iis constantly behind in the count and that is surrounded by traffic just about every frame? Play the value and take the Giants.
Bob Balfe
Marlins -120
This is not the best time of year to start slumping, but unlike the Pittsburgh Pirates I do believe this Marlins team still has a shot to grab the last wild card spot, but you can’t be losing to the Phillies of all teams down the stretch. We have two starting pitchers that have struggled as of late and in this case when we get to the bullpen early it favors the Marlins. This is a must win for Miami as they head into a huge series with the Dodgers.
Vegas Butcher
Arizona Diamondbacks +120 (1st 5 Innings)
Here’s what we know about Ray. He’s a top-20 pitcher with an elite K-rate of 28% and excellent advanced metrics of 3.5/3.4/3.5 FxS. His ERA of 4.5 is a full run higher though, partially due to a really inflated 0.358 BABIP. He’s coming off a poor outing at Colorado, a #1 ranked hitters’ park. Now he’s pitching in Dodger Stadium, the 27th ranked hitters’ park. I expect a strong bounce back. On the other side we have Brock Stewart, a young pitcher who is starting his 5th MLB game. He had a phenomenal outing in his last start, but in his first 3 he allowed 15 runs in 12 innings of work. The issue for him is his command, as he’s issued 9 BB’s in 17 innings pitched. He’s also really struggled against right-handers so far, with a 5.8 xFIP against them compared to 3.6 mark against lefties. Both Ray and Stewart are left-handed pitchers, which brings me to the second key factor in tonight’s matchup: offenses. Arizona ranks 2nd best against lefties while Dodgers are 28th. The numbers don’t lie as the difference in wRC+ is almost 35% between them. LA has a strong advantage in the BP so let’s take that out of the equation. DBacks are way undervalued in this matchup, and I expect a strong chance of this play cashing.
OC Dooley
2 Units Twins +135
Last night Kansas City All Star catcher Salvador Perez suffered a wrist contusion after being hit a by pitch so a major part of the lineup will NOT be available this evening for which I am taking advantage. Admittedly the Royals won with ease last night (10-3 final) but the fact of the matter is that lowly Minnesota who was FAVORED in that game actually received a RARE "quality" start as veteran Ervin Santana permitted just 3 runs in 6 innings. Infielder Brian Dozier has tied an all-time Twins record with HOMERS in FIVE CONSECUTIVE games (his 11 bombs are the most ever in a single-season by any player versus Kansas City). There has been NO offshore inflation regarding tonight's game even though Minnesota has the worst overall record in the majors which to me speaks volumes since Kansas City hurler Danny Duffy recently had an 11-1 winning stretch