Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday August 21,2009

The Gold Medal Club
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Titans @ Dallas
PLAY ON DALLAS -3 18K
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Kansas City @ Minnesota
PLAY UNDER 37 14K

Wunderdog
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Game: Atlanta at St. Louis
3 units St. Louis +3 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
3 units Game Total UNDER 36 -110
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The Rams new head coach Steve Spagnuolo showed a desire to create a winning culture as he won his first NFLX game on the road with a late fourth-quarter TD. The Falcons dropped their opener, allowing 454 yards to the lowly Lions - truly an indication that, coming off a playoffs year, there is more evaluating going on in Atlanta than desire to win. Second-year Coach Mike Smith played things differently a year ago, establishing a winning attitude, covering three of four. How different is the approach this season? Consider the fact that Atlanta allowed three TDs in the entire preseason under then first-year coach Smith, while they allowed three in week one to the Lions. The Rams are in the role under a first year head coach and playing at home, so he will want to show the fans that there is some meaningful football to be played in St. Louis this season. Over the last eight years, they have been premier at home, playing to an 11-5 mark in their home preseason games and I look for the Rams to cover here. I also like the UNDER here as games involving home dogs in certain situations have hit at a 70% UNDER mark including 10-4 UNDER the past three seasons.

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Game: Kansas City at Minnesota
2 units Kansas City +3 (+100) (risk 2 to win 2)
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Todd Haley, newly appointed head coach for the Chiefs, will be looking to getting his first win under his belt after dropping the opener to Gary Kubiak's Houston Texans, who are now winning 61.5% of their preseason games under Kubiak. The Vikings made a splash this week (sigh) by signing Brett Favre to a two-year $25 million contract, and the speculation is that they will be cutting Tarvaris Jackson free. That will leave them with a QB dilemma in this one as Favre is not ready to be taking snaps, and even if he does, he will not be very effective. The QB rotation for the Vikings is in trouble in this one. This definitely looks like a good spot for Haley to get win number one, so I'll go with the Chiefs here.

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Game: Tennessee at Dallas
3 units Game Total OVER 38 -110
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Both of these coaches, Wade Phillips of the Cowboys and Jeff Fisher of the Titans, have shown a penchant for winning in the preseason as they both have winning records with a combined record of 40-30. It is unusual to see teams put up 20 points or more in an NFLX game, but when you look at what Dallas has done under Wade Phillips, there is obviously a different approach. The Cowboys have played 10 preseason home games under Phillips, avareaging 21.2 ppg. The Titans under Fisher have taken a similar approach as the Fisher-led Titans have scored 20+ in eight of their last eleven preseason games. This one has the makings of a 40+ game, and I will go with the over here.

Larry Ness
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Insider - Cowboys

Chris Jordan
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200♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX RUN LINE
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100♦ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -

Vegas Sports ExpertsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COMFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
10* Take Minnesota (-3) over Kansas City (NFL Power Play)
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Minnesota
• 4-0 ATS in pre-season non-conference games the last 3 years
• 5-1 ATS in pre-season after allowing 200 yards or less in the previous game

SMOOTH44
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MINNESOTA VS. KANSAS CITY
PLAY: KANSAS CITY +3 POD
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The Vikings return home off an impressive 10 point win over the Colts. This week the Vikings dominated headlines with the signing of Brett Favre. Favre is expected to start before giving way to Rosenfels and Jackson. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off a 16-10 loss to the Texans in a game where starting QB Matt Cassel struggled. Cassel will extra work tonight before giving way to Croyle and Thigpen. The Chiefs find themselves in the same situation as the Bengals last night which involves week 2 preseason underdogs with zero wins – these teams have covered the number 2/3 of the time over the long run (54-28 L82). In another very strong angle week 2 teams coming off a poor previous season are an incredible 27-9 ATS L36 when playing on the road and against an opponent coming off a good or average season. All signs point to Minny, especially at home and with the return of Favre, but I love the Chiefs to get their first preseason win just like the Bengals did last night under the same set of circumstances!
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PREDICTION: KANSAS CITY 17 MINNESOTA 13

Power Play Wins
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New York Yankees -110

Paul Leiner

50* Falcons -3

25* LA Angels

FANTASY GAMETIME SPORTS

50* Play Philadelphia (-165) over New York Mets

Philadelphia has won 8 of the last 9 games and they have also won 11 of the last 16 road games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs. Philadelphia has won 20 of the last 27 games when their on base percentage is .300 or worse over the last 15 games and they have also won 27 of the last 39 games after having won five or six of the last seven games.

50* Play Colorado (-165) over San Francisco

Colorado has won 6 of the last 8 games and they have also won 12 of the last 13 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200. Jonathan Sanchez has lost 9 consecutive games as a road underdog of +100 or higher and he has also lost 6 of the last 7 road games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs.

BEN BURNS
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Personal Favorite
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I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY
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The Rays were upset as large favorites yesterday. They're still a solid 4-1 their last five games though and they're still an outstanding 40-20 at home on the season. On the other hand, despite yesterday's victory, the Rangers are 1-2 their last three games. Additionally, they're just 27-28 on the road. While the Rangers did sweep the Rays at Texas in a 3-game set over the July 4th long weekend, they're an ugly 2-8 their last 10 trips to Tampa and just 4-12 their last 16 visits here. I expect the revenge-minded Rays to have the advantage once again for tonight's series opener. Kazmir is a much better pitcher than his current stats indicate. The Rangers can attest to that. Indeed, Kazmir is 4-1 with an excellent 2.06 ERA in eight starts against the Rangers. He limited them to two earned runs or fewer in each of those games with the Rays going a profitable 7-1 (+5.9). It's also worth noting that Kazmir is 3-0 with a solid 3.26 ERA in his last three home outings. The Rays are 5-0 his last five home starts and 15-5 his last 20 home starts. Conversely, the Rangers are just 1-3 (-1.3) in Nippert's four road starts, including 0-3 the last three. During that 4-game stretch, Nippert has gone 0-1 with a poor 5.40 ERA, averaging less than five innings per start. Nippert also got rocked in his lone start vs. the Rays. That came last season and also happened to come against Kazmir. Kazmir was solid. Nippert was not. In fact, he got hammered for seven runs in just four innings. Tampa won by a score of 7-4. The Rays have fared very well as home favorites in this range. Behind another strong effort from Kazmir, look for them to start this series with a victory. *9 Personal Favorite

Seabass
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100* Steam- Chiefs (buy up to +3)

KELSO
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15 Units La Angels (+115) over Bluejays
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Los Angeles Angels (73-46) +115 over TORONTO BLUE JAYS (55-64) Pitching for Los Angeles: RH Sean O’Sullivan (3-1, 5.91) Pitching for Toronto: LH Marc Rzepczynski (1-3, 3.98) Angels Trend Profile: Last 10: 8-2, Streak: Lost 1, Road Record: 37-24, Against LHP: 28-11. Blue Jays Trend Profile: Last 10: 4-6, Streak: Lost 1, Home Record: 31-29, Against RHP: 39-39.
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Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.

Anthony Redd
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15 Dime Falcons

Wunderdog
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Game: Milwaukee at Washington
3 units Washington +110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)
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The Brewers lost Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia from last year's playoff team, but didn't skip a beat and surprised early by leading the NL Central. Reality has dealt a blow to those early-season hopes and surprises, and the Brew Crew now finds themselves back to reality. That 25-14 start has turned into a horrible 33-48 mark in their last 81, and recently really falling off the cliff by losing four straight, and just 16-27 in their last 43. That includes just 8-18 in their last 26 on the road. That puts the suddenly hot Nationals in prime position as a dog at home here, as the Nats are 15-10 in their last 25, but they are also 14-7 in their last 21 against a team with a losing record. I'll go with the Nats to win this one.

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Game: Milwaukee at Washington
4 units Washington +1.5 runs -150 (runline) (risk 4 to win 2.7)
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There has been a distinct role reversal for these teams over the last month. The Brewers, once 25-14, have fallen fast and hard and are now just 33-48 in their last 81, and 16-27 in their last 43, including 8-18 on the road. The Nats have been plenty hot at home, and when you consider them on the +1.5 runline, they would be 10-1 in their last 11 at home. That is troublesome to a Brewer team that appears to have cashed it in, and has dropped four straight. I'll go with Washington on the runline in this one.

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Game: Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
4 units Los Angeles Dodgers -145 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2.8)
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The Dodgers have been the team to beat all season in the NL West. While the Cubs, expected to do big things, have found the road to the 2009 playoffs full of land mines. The Cubs used a stellar 16-6 stretch to push themselves over .500, but have gone back to struggling once again, as they are just 4-10 since. The offense continues to be a problem, and they have scored three runs or less in nine of the 14 games. Last night's loss to the Dodgers moved the Cubs to 10 games under .500 on the road, and now 14-37 in their last 51 as a dog, and have dropped six straight to teams with a winning record. The Dodgers meanwhile, continue to feast at home where they are now 62-27 in their last 89 as a home chalk. The Cubs had huge revenge motive for the playoff sweep at the hands of the Dodgers last year, and couldn't get it done. That makes the task here even more difficult. The Dodgers get the call.

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Game: Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
3 units Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs +145 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.4)
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The Dodgers are churning out wins as a home chalk at the rate of 70% winners. Randy Wolf on regular four days rest has turned in a excellent 21-7 mark for the Dodgers in his last 28 starts. The Cubs' big failures have come against a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or less, as they are just 5-18 in their last 23 against top pitchers. And as good as Wells has been, he can't turn the tide as the Cubs are 0-4 with him on the mound as a dog. The Cubs' bats have been quiet on the road, and in their last 15 road losses, 14 of the 15 have been by two runs or more. I also like the Dodgers on the runline here.