STU FEINER
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KANSAS CITY @ MINNESOTA
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THIS LINE HAS BEEN DROPPING ALL WEEK AND CONTINUES TO GO DOWN SO BET IT ASAP. IF THE GAME DROPS BELOW 3, BUY IT BACK UP TO 3 JUST IN CASE. BUT SAYING THAT, I THINK KANSAS CITY WILL WIN OUTRIGHT EASILY. YES I KNOW KC IS 1-9 ATS THEIR LAST 10 PRESEASON ROAD GAMES. YES I KNOW THE HOME TEAM HAS WON AND COVERED THE LAST 3 MEETINGS. WE THROW ALL THAT OUT THE WINDOW. NEW COACH TODD HALEY HAS RUN A VERY STRICT CAMP AND TONIGHT THEY ARE PLAYING TO WIN. WITH THE DEEPEST QB ROTATION IN PRESEASON, LOOK FOR CASSEL, CROYLE, THIGPEN AND MARTIN TO CONTROL THE GAME. WITH FAVRE JOINING MINNY THIS WEEK, I BELEIVE THERE ARE TOO MANY DISTRACTIONS FOR THEM TO BE FOCUSED TONIGHT. KC WINS GOING AWAY.
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KANSAS CITY +3 1000 DIME SELECTION
Ben Burns
#1 NFLX Non-Conf. GAME OF THE WEEK!
Kansas City Chiefs
Fairway Jay
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20* Dallas/Tennessee OVER 37.5
ASA
Diamondbacks at Houston Astros
Play: 3* Under 9
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The Astros and Diamondbacks have both cooled off at the plate with Arizona batting .240 over the last ten games and Houston batting .251. Just twice in the past eleven games has Arizona topped four runs and Houston has scored two or fewer runs in five of the last seven games. The ‘under’ is 34-24-4 in games at Minute Maid Park this season and less than 8.6 runs per game are being scored in Houston despite a reputation as a higher scoring park.
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The Diamondbacks are batting just .235 in road games this year and Roy Oswalt allowed just one run over seven innings in his last start against Arizona in June. Oswalt has just six wins this season but he has allowed one run or less in seven of his last 13 starts. The ‘under’ is 6-4 in his home starts and he owns an impressive 3.08 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Oswalt’s ERA in night games is just 3.67 and the Houston bullpen owns a 3.85 ERA in home games.
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Yusmeiro Petit has terrible numbers for the season but he has allowed just ten runs in his last four starts. Petit owns a 4.15 ERA in his road starts as his main struggles have been at home at Chase Field. Arizona’s bullpen has shown significant improvement in the last month and the ‘under’ is 9-4 in the last 13 Arizona games which they have played as underdogs. The ‘under’ is also 32-24-3 in Arizona road games.
Scott Rickenbach
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TOP PLAY
Royals vs. Twins Over 9.5
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We are getting some line value here due to the absence of Justin Morneau of the Twins for this game. We’re not going to lie to you. We’d sure love to his bat in there tonight. However, what’s funny about things like this is that Morneau is 0 for 4 in his career against Luke Hochevar of the Royals. Morneau’s replacement in the lineup is expected to again be Michael Cuddyer. Note that Minnesota’s Cuddyer is 2 for 6 with a double and an RBI against Hochevar. In other words, we sometimes get line value that is even “better than usual” in a situation like this. Morneau misses but Cuddyer comes in and knocks the cover off the ball. It is very likely with the way things have been going for Hochevar and the Royals pitching staff!
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Kansas City’s Hochevar is 0-3 with an 8.59 ERA in his last four starts. Also, it’s not just Hochevar that’s struggling for the Royals pitching staff. Their team ERA, during their current 6-21 slide in home games, is a lofty 5.78 in these 27 home games! One of the few bright spots on this staff is closer Joakim Soria but even he is nursing a twisted ankle. Hochevar did have a very strong start versus the Twins on June 29th. However, look what’s happened since then! Hochevar had a 5.74 ERA and a .315 BAA in July. Also, in August he’s 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and a .361 BAA in his three starts this month. Even though he had that great outing versus Minnesota earlier this season, note how he’s faded ever since then. Also note that Hochevar’s only other career start against the Twins certainly did not go too well! The right-hander allowed five earned runs on nine hits in 5.1 innings of work in his 2008 outing versus Minnesota. Look for another rough one here and, keep in mind, the bullpen has really struggled for the Royals.
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The Twins are certainly not without their own pitching issues in this one. They hand the ball to Nick Blackburn and this outing has the makings of a disaster for him. Blackburn has always struggled more against lefties than righties in his career and the Royals are loaded with left-handed sticks! Additionally, Blackburn’s current form has simply been awful of late. Blackburn is 0-4 with a 10.17 ERA in his last six starts! In addition, don’t be fooled by his solid long-term numbers against the Royals. The last time Blackburn faced Kansas City he had one of his worst outings of the season. That start came less than two weeks ago and that means the Royals are getting a quick second look and, hence, another chance to get some very good cuts against him! Blackburn has lasted five innings or less in four of his last six starts and that will further tax a struggling Twins pitching staff. Minnesota has allowed 6.7 runs per game in their last 19 games and we look for more of the same here. Play OVER the total in Kansas City as a Top Play selection on Friday night!
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
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NY Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
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For a number of different reasons I feel that we're getting great value on the home side as the Red Sox look to end a recent slump vs. the Yankees: Boston dominated this rivalry over the season?s first half, winning the first eight meetings and taking a three-game division lead into the All-Star break as a result. The Yankees won their first eight overall after the break, though, and led the Red Sox by 2 1/2 games when Boston arrived in the Bronx for four contests starting Aug. 6, which the Yanks swept. New York has continued to play well since then, however they'll be in tough today; Boston has scored 42 runs in winning all six meetings between the clubs at Fenway this season, and also won the final matchup there last September. The Yankees will send Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.09 ERA) to the mound for the series opener. The veteran left-hander has given up two runs or fewer in each of his last four starts, but has a mere 1-0 record to show for it as he?s received a total of six runs in support during that span. The Red Sox counter with Brad Penny (7-7, 5.22), who is 0-3 with a 7.54 ERA over his last four starts. He didn?t face the Yankees earlier this month but threw six shutout innings against them June 11, when he didn?t get the decision in Boston?s 4-3 win. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees. Penny is 5-2 with a 4.70 ERA at home as well. The lack of ball support that Pettitte has been receiving lately, the fact that the Red Sox were swept by the Yankees in their last series, and that Boston is a great 30-18 (+10 units) against division opponents means that I must recommend a play on the RED SOX! 6*
Lenny Del Genio
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Minnesota vs. Kansas City
Take Minnesota
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We look for the Twins to get back on track after an 11-1 drubbing at the hands of Texas last night against the struggling Royals, whom they have revenge on their minds for a 5-4 loss back on 8/13. Kansas City actually won two of those three games in the Metrodome, but we find Minnesota at 8-1 on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite since the start of last season. Neither of these pitchers are in good form, with each seeing their team lose each of their four previous starts. However, the Twins? bats have excelled in division play, hitting .288 and scoring nearly six full runs per game. Over the last seven days, the Royals offense is averaging just 3.6 runs per game and hitting .214 as a team. Take Minnesota.
Evan Altemus
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San Francisco vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado -1.5
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San Francisco's line-up has struggled to hit lately, especially in their recent series against Cincinnati. Their hitters simply have problems producing offense on the road. The Rockies have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last few months, but the media hasn't really noticed, which means there is still great value on them. Colorado has a great pitching advantage today with Aaron Cook going against Jonathan Sanchez. The Rockies hit him hard the last time they faced him, while Cook shutdown the Giants just a few starts ago. Cook struggled in his last start, but I look for him to be motivated to have a strong outing today because of that. Colorado crushes lefties at home, both this season and especially recently. The Giants are also dealing with several injuries to starters. Look for Colorado to get a run line win.
Doc's Sports
3-Unit Play Take Chicago Cubs +135 over Los Angeles Dodgers
Charlie
Chiefs +3, Rams +3 & Chiefs @ Vikings Over 37 (500* 3 team rd robin)
Dallas -3 (30*)
Reds +125 (20*)
Toronto -125 (20*)
St. Louis -130 (10*)
Yankees -110 (10*) free play
Matt Fargo
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9* NFLX DARK HORSE DANDY *78% ANGLE*
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Kansas City Chiefs
JACK JONES
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15* Boston Red Sox +100
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Take the Red Sox at home over the Yankees. Boston is a solid 38-18 at Fenway this season, including 6-0 so far against the Yankees. New York has been hot lately, but they are definitely a different team on the road. Brad Penny gets the start for the Red Sox and though is numbers aren't all that impressive at home, Boston is 8-4 in his 12 starts.
Mike Neri Sports
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Philadelphia w/Hamels -179
Risk 1 Unit to make .56 Units
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St Louis w/Lohse -128
Risk 1 Unit to make .79 Units
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LA Angels w/O'Sullivan +115
Risk 1 Unit to make 1.15 Units
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Tampa Bay w/Kazmir -170
Risk 1 Unit to make .59 Units
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3* Kansas City +3
KBHOOPS
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5* CHIEFS +3 **Preseason Game of the Week**
2* Rams +3
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5* Washington +112
5* Angels +115
5* Redsoxs +102
Jimmy Boyd
5* 17-0 Friday Night *BASES BEST BET* on Indians -115
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The Tribe has the big edge tonight in this battle of southpaws. The Mariners are one of the worst hitting teams in the league against lefty starters, hitting just .255 and scoring only 3.7 runs per game this season. Meanwhile, the Indians are one of the best hitting teams against southpaw starters, hitting .285 and scoring 6.0 runs per game. The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter, 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 5-0 in Huff's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. The Mariners are 5-11 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Plus, they are 17-38 in their last 55 games as a road underdog. Look for the Tribe to pick up its 4th straight win over the Mariners tonight.
4* Major NFLX Underdog of the Week on Chiefs +3
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In case you haven't heard (yeah right), Brett Favre is aboard for the Vikings and is expected to get the start. While I do expect Favre to have a positive impact on this team this season, I don't expect it to be in his first preseason game after just a couple days of practice. It is also worth noting that Sage Rosenfels has missed considerable practice time this week with a sprained ankle, which likely means that Tarvaris Jackson and John David Booty will see the majority of the snaps - that's good for our side. The Vikings won their first preseason game and this one is just about getting Brett a few snaps and seeing what the youngsters can do. KC, which lost its first preseason game, will take a different approach. Wins mean a lot more to teams that are rebuilding in the preseason and I think you'll see a hungry Chiefs squad tonight. Lastly, history is on our side as plays against home teams in the preseason after a win by 10 or more points against an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 25-7 ATS since 1993. Plus, the Vikes are just 1-3 their last four preseason home games. Take the points.