Chris Jordan
100♦ OVER Padres/Marlins - With Kevin Correia and Chris Volstad toeing the slab, and this one being in Miami, I love this total to soar. Both teams have won two of three behind these pitchers’ last three starts, but Correia has a 4.08 ERA in his last trio of starts, while Volstad’s 7.24 ERA his last three trips to the hill is eye popping.
Florida is in after losing five of eight after winning nine of their previous 11. And since it trails Colorado by 4-1/2 games of the Wild Card race, I expect the Marlins to get this one started early. I won’t side with them though, given Volstad’s numbers.
Delving inside the numbers, the Over is on winning runs of 9-1 when the Friars are on the road and 8-3 when they play on Friday nights. With Florida, the high number is on upticks of 14-3 when it’s the favorite,13-3 when it’s at home and 7-2-1 when it plays on Friday nights. More importantly, the over has come in eight of the last times these two have met in Florida.
I know the first three meetings averaged 5 runs per game, but they were played in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. This one is at Land Shark Stadium, and the Marlins will dictate the high-scoring affair.
100♦ PATRIOTS (buy the hook down to -3 if in fact your book has the line at 3-1/2) - If this the dress rehearsal for the real season, and this one is in Foxboro, it’s a no-brainer for me to take the Patriots tonight, albeit we’re playing it safe and buying the hook. Why is this line so low, you might be asking? Well there are still the uncertainties with Tom Brady, plus, there’s the changing face of one of the NFL’s better defenses, as coach Bill Belichick is changing from his 3-4 defense to a traditional 4-3 front.
Last season the Patriots ranked 14th in the NFL in sacks, so with this new scheme, there’s the opportunity for more chances at getting to opposing signal-callers. No better time like the present to make things happen and for this defense to prove to itself that it can dominate once again. And the greatest thing about the mentality of the Pats’ defensive members is they’re not as worried about the ‘sack’ as much as they are pressuring the quarterback.
So no matter how much Washington quarterback Jason Campbell says he’s ready, there’s never a good time to face a Belichick-coached stop unit. This is a significant adjustment, something that is never easy for opponents to prepare for. Quite frankly, I don’t think it’s about Brady at all tonight, I think it’s the Patriots defense, which could become even more perplexing than ever.
100♦ RANGERS - This is an awfully interesting organization, you have to admit. With Nolan Ryan running the front office and Mike Maddux handling the pitching responsibilities, this team has turned things around and poses a real threat in the Wild Card race. Think about it, the Yankees have the best record in baseball and most certainly have been playing their best baseball the past month or so. Yet the Rangers just won a road series at the new Yankee Stadium.
I didn’t see anything bothering the Rangers in the Bronx either, as they became the first visiting team to win a series there since mid-June. Much of their resurgent ways can be credited to Maddux’s effort with the pitching staff, that’s a given; but let’s be real, Ian Kinsler is killing the ball, Josh Hamilton looks alive after seeing his average fall to .220 this month, and then seeing him bat .429 with 10 RBI over the past 15 games. The good news is, Hamilton is a .389 career hitter against the Twins, and keep in mind this one is in the Homer Domer.
Texas is on winning runs of 7-2 as a favorite, 13-4 on Fridays and 5-1 when Tommy Hunter starts the first game in a series. Meanwhile, the Twins come in mired in losing streaks of 3-9 against the American League West, 3-7 against winning teams and 0-4 as the home pup. Value road play.
BEN BURNS
2009 NFLX TOTAL OF THE YEAR!!
I'm playing on New England and Washington to finish OVER the total. As most of you are aware, the third week of the preseason is almost always the week where the starters see the most playing time. That should certainly be the case in this evening's matchup. While that means that both the defensive and offensive starters will see extended time, I expect both teams to place a high priority on getting their offensive starters on track. The Redskins won for me last week, scoring 17 points in the process. However, 14 of those came in the second half and starter Jason Campbell was ineffective for the second straight start. Campbell is definitely hearing the negative reviews and despite saying that he's saying he's "not concerned," he should be highly motivated to deliver a stronger performance. He was quoted as saying: "...Everybody wants to talk about 1 for 7. C'mon, there have been games when I've been 20 for 23, almost. So 1 for 7 is definitely something I'm not concerned about..." As for Coach Zorn, he was quoted as saying: "I want to see a sustained drive. I want to see us push it in when we get down to the 3-yard line..." While Campbell and co. should get plenty of playing time, the Skins also have a battle at the backup QB position and a serious fight for the #3 spot with Todd Collins, Chase Daniel and Colt Brennan all in the mix. Naturally, all will be looking to make the most of whatever opportunity that they are given this evening. I successfully played against the Pats last week, so I was happy that they only managed six points. That should work in our favor here too, as they should also be a little extra motivated to score some points. Brady is still considered to be among the very best in the game and a big game here would go a long way to remind every one of that fact. Note that the Redskins gave up 47 points last in their Week 3 game last preseason. Note that this is the second of three games that the Pats will play against teams from the NFC East this preseason. The first saw 52 points scored, a 27-25 victory at Philadelphia. It's also interesting to point out that the Pats faced an NFC East team (Eagles) in Week 3 of last year's preseason. That game saw 44 combined points scored, which was New England's highest-scoring preseason game of 2008. Overall, dating back to a 41-0 victory over the Redskins in Week 3 of the 2006 preseason, the Pats have seen the OVER go 5-1 their last six preseason games against teams from the NFC East. Those games averaged 45.16 points with five of them producing a minimum of 41. I expect more of the same here with this evening's final combined score finding its way above the low number. *10 NFLX TOY
Savannah Sports
3* Washington Over 37
3* New England -3
3* Green Bay +3.5
Eric Degarde
4* San Francisco -125
3* Philadelphia +110
Matt Fargo
9* WNBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *85% ANGLE*
9* Minnesota Lynx
I correctly went against Sacramento in its last game and it paid off as the Monarchs lost by 20 points in Atlanta. That snapped a two-game winning steak as well as a four wins in five games run and personally I think that knocked them out of the playoffs. Sacramento is now 2.5 games out of the playoff picture and the team it is currently chasing happens to be Minnesota. The Lynx have been a disappointment of late as they have dropped six straight games as well as six of their last seven at home. That is a run that is no doubt disappointing but one that can be clearly blamed on the schedule. The last four games have come on the road while 11 of the last 13 games have come against teams that are currently in a playoff spot. The Monarchs are 0-6 ATS after allowing 90 points or more over the last two seasons and 1-10 after scoring 80 points or more this season. The Lynx also fall into a solid play against situation. Play on home teams with a losing record but with a winning percentage greater than .400 after failing to cover two of their last three games against the spread and now playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 30-7 ATS (81.1 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +10.4 ppg. 9* Minnesota Lynx
C-Stars Sports
1000 Units Colorado/San Francisco over the total
1000 Units Boston Run Line -1.5 over Toronto
1000 Units Detroit over Tampa Bay
HalfBets
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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
9* Phillies +110
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Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
8* Orioles -105
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Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
7* Tigers +110
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds
7* Reds -1.5 +100
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San Diego Padres at Florida Marlins
3* Padres +135
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Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
2* White Sox -1.5 -115
JACK JONES
15* Philadelphia Phillies (+110)
Take the Phillies at home over the Braves tonight. I know that Braves' starter, Tommy Hanson has been great this year, but I have to give the edge to the Philadelphia offense. The Phillies average 5.4 runs per game at home and have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. Pedro Martinez makes his second home start and 3rd start overall for the Phillies. Pedro hasn't impressed so far with his numbers, but the Phillies are 3-0 in his starts for them. The Braves' offense is geared to hit left-handed starters, while they have struggled against righties. As a team they hit .259 as a team and score 4.1 runs per game when they face right-handed starters, both numbers well below their season average. Here you have one of the top 3 teams in the National League at even money or better at home. I'll take it.
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10* Take Washington (+3.5) over New England (NFL Power Play)
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• 1-4 SU & ATS in pre-season coming off a Thursday game
• 1-4 SU & ATS in pre-season when playing as a favorite
• 3-7 SU & ATS in all pre-season games the last 3 years
We Cover Spreads
1* Cardinals -3
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The Packers first team defense hasn't allowed any points yet in preseason but only one team ranked lower in total offense last season than their first opponent, the Cleveland Browns, who were in their first game under Mangini. The Buffalo Bills, their second preseason opponent, weren’t much better last season, when they ranked 25th out of 32 teams in total offense. They are in for a rude awakening here in the desert Friday night. Their back ups have been outscored in the second half 21-7 this August.
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Both teams come in nicked up but more so Green Bay. The biggest name for Arizona is Anquan Bodlin who is dealing with a hamstring issue. Arizona coach Whisenhunt wouldn't rule Boldin out of the Packers game, but he also said Boldin's injury would mean Jerheme Urban would start along with Larry Fitzgerald. Steve Breaston, the team's No. 3 receiver, has been limited in practice and isn't likely to play. The absences of Boldin and Breaston will give Lance Long, Early Doucet, Sean Morey and Onrea Jones more playing time. Those four players are competing for the fifth and sixth spots on the depth chart. We love backing teams with position battles in these August games. The backup QB position also is a battle for Arizona as Matt Leinart holds the edge but Brian St. Pierre isn't ruled out yet.
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Coach Whisenhunt plans to play most of his starters through the first half on Friday night, and some might play in the third quarter, too. He will gain some depth at running back as highly touted rookie Chris "Beanie" Wells makes his debut with the Cards. Whisenhunt doesn't take "dress rehearsal" week lightly; he is 2-0 ATS in week 3 of preseason and last year they manhandled Oakland 24-0.
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Despite the loss the Cards first team defense looked solid against the Chargers last week;they showed us an aggressive pass rush which sacked Philip Rivers four times in the first quarter, while also keeping LaDainian Tomlinson contained.
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Back up QB Matt Flynn is doutbful so Brian Brohm will likely close this game out and we'll see a lot of him and he's struggled in preseason and reports from the Green Bay media he has looked awful in practice this week. This is the game where the Cards get into more of the swing of a regular season game and we like how they stack up against Green Bay Friday evening
Tony George
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Green Bay Packers at Arizona
Play: Green Bay +3.5
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Arizona has stunk it up in the preseason at 0-2. Green Bay's defense has been absolutely stellar and their secondary can contain AZ's first team. Green Bay is averaging 24 ppg on offense and Az's offense averaged just 8 ppg to this point. The DEPTH of Green Bay's roster is KEY in this game. AZ's WR's Boldin and Breaston are both out tonight on offense. The Packs first road game here of the preseason but I think their defense, which is flying under the radar is solid and deep. Tyrell Sutton a rookie RB was second in the NFL in rushing in the preseason so far and he and Grant should be able to balance the attack and move the chains. Look for all GB starters to get 2 full quarters. Same with AZ. Like the Pack here tonight with the better defense and healthier secondary than last game.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COMFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play 1 Unit on Green Bay & 2 team teaser - Tease New England to +3, Tease Green Bay to +9.5 for a Half Unit Play.
Bob Balfe
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Patriots -3.5 over Redskins
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Washington's first team offense has done nothing this preseason and if they play bad again tonight you can bet there will be QB controversy talk. Washington will be without a lot of key starters tonight and I just don't see them hanging with Tom Brady and the Patriots in the first half. If the Patriots get a big lead I do not see the Skins getting back into this game in the second half with two young QB's. Take the Patriots.
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Packers/Cardinals Under 41
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The Cardinals offense has yet to get going this preseason, but I think its more the coaching staff not wanting to give anything away then the actual starters playing bad. I expect Warner to play a little better tonight, but the Packers first unit defense has been outstanding this preseason. When Aaron Rodgers leaves the game the Packers will be with out Matt Flynn so the struggling Brian Brohm will play most of the second half. I do not see him putting up great numbers. These teams also play each other later in the year so it would be foolish for either coach to show their cards. Take the Under.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Brewers -150 over Pirates
Parra/Duke
JASON JOHNSON
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Rockies at Giants
Pick: Under 6.5
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Don't let this low total scare you off. These two pitchers have been excellent lately and one of them is bound to throw another gem tonight.
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Tim Lincecum loves pitching at AT&T Park where he is 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA in his last six starts. The Cy Young winner also has an impressive 2.43 ERA on the season.
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Ubaldo Jimenez has picked up his game recently and has played a big park in the Rockies resurgance into the playoff hunt. The right hander is 5-0 with a 1.63 ERA in his last five starts.
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Take the 'under' here in a close 3-1 game.
Tony Bruno Wins
100x White Sox
Larry Ness
Perfect Storm NFL
ARZ Cardinals
SportsOddsAndPicks
GREEN BAY +3.5 over Arizona
SAN FRANCISCO -125 (with Lincecum) over Colorado