Scott Rickenbach
10* NY Yankees / Boston Over
The last time these teams met they combined for 33 runs in just two games. The Yankees were without Posada, Granderson, and Swisher in those games back in mid-May. They’ve all returned now. Even though the Red Sox are the ones that are currently dealing with injury issues, note that they have been battling through it quite well. Boston is on an 7-3 run in their last 10 games and they’ve averaged a solid 4.6 runs per game during this stretch. Even though Youkilis is now on the disabled list the Red Sox now have Lowell back in the lineup. Certainly they will miss Youkilis but coach Francona feels much better about it than he otherwise would if Lowell was still unavailable. Lowell is a solid veteran stick that the Red Sox are happy to have back. This is especially true with a big series like this getting underway. Note that the Yankees have been pounding the ball and that is also what is helping to lead us to the over here. The Yanks are averaging a solid 5 runs per game in their last 13 games and they’ve been especially strong at the plate when at home this season.
Even though Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox certainly has impressive full season numbers this year, the right-hander is winless in his four career starts against the Yankees and he’s compiled a 6.53 ERA in those outings! The Yanks were off yesterday and they’re 9-3 to the over after an off day this season. Also, the Yankees are 24-15 to the over in divisional games this season. Also, as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this year, the Yanks are 6-2 to the over. The Yankees are most impressive 11-2-1 to the over in their last 14 games and we look for their long-term success against Buchholz to continue in this match-up. The Yanks send Javier Vazquez to the mound for this one and he’s 3-7 with a 4.21 ERA in his career against the Red Sox. Boston is 9-5 to the over on Fridays this season and they’re 24-16 to the over in divisional games this season. Vazquez has a 4.87 ERA in home games this season and he’s recently been rocked over the last two weeks. In his last three starts Vazquez allowed 11 earned runs on 22 hits (including 4 homers) in 18.1 innings of work. He’s given up six homers in his last four home starts and the Red Sox should enjoy plenty of success against him this evening as the long ball continues to be an issue for Vazquez in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Play OVER the total in the New York Yankees game as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Baltimore / Chicago White Sox Over
Baltimore has won three straight games and they’ve scored 20 runs in the process. Also, the Orioles have averaged 5.4 runs per game in their last 7 games. In that stretch the O’s have averaged 10 hits per game. As you can see, the Orioles sticks have been “in the zone” of late and the winning they’ve had since Buck Showalter took over as manager has led to a positive vibe in a clubhouse that hadn’t felt that in a long, long time. Look for the Orioles to feed off of that vibe and have another big day at the plate. The only trouble for Baltimore is that the White Sox are likely to enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight too. Chicago has won 9 of their last 11 games and they’ve averaged 6 runs per game during this 9-2 run. The ChiSox have also averaged nearly 11 hits per game during this solid 11 game stretch. The point is that we have two confident lineups going at it tonight and both clubs (thanks to their recent winning streaks) bring plenty of confidence to the plate tonight.
The pitching match-up is also conducive to an over tonight. John Danks gets the start for the White Sox and he’s allowed at least five earned runs in four of his last seven starts. In his career, Danks has a 3.15 ERA in day games but a 4.42 ERA at night. This season, the southpaw has a 2.87 ERA at home but a 4.20 ERA in road games. Danks has had solid success against the Orioles in his career but, the way Baltimore is swinging the bats right now we just don’t foresee Danks shutting down the O’s. Additionally, the White Sox bullpen is hurting as Bobby Jenks continues to get rocked in the closer’s role. As for the O’s pitching situation, their bullpen has been a trouble spot for much of the season and that issues could raise its ugly head again tonight as Brad Bergesen may not last long tonight. Bergesen gets the start this evening and the Baltimore right-hander is 0-7 with a 7.26 ERA in his last 11 starts. Bergesen faced the White Sox twice last season and don’t be fooled by his low ERA in those starts, Bergesen got hit at a .304 clip by the ChiSox. Also, though he’s off of a solid outing in his most recent start, Bergesen had previously given up 39 hits in his last 22.1 innings of work. The right-hander has allowed 9 homers in his last 6 starts and he’s facing a White Sox team that has seen their games go over the total in 9 of their last 13 games. As for the Orioles, they’ve recorded just 4 unders in their last 12 games! Play OVER the total in Baltimore as an *8* Regular Play selection.
ATS LOCK CLUB
12 Units San Francisco Giants Under 7.5
5 Units Detroit Tigers -120
4 Units Tampa Bay Devil Rays -120
KELSO
25 Units Kansas City Royals -155
15 Units Colorado Rockies Over 8
10 Units Chicago White Sox -165
NSA
20* Philly -130
20* Texas -155
20* Yanks -150
Wunderdog
5 Units Rangers / Athletics Under 7
Any time they hand the ball to Cliff Lee, you’re going to get a quality start and he is going to eat a lot of innings. The bullpen really becomes a non-factor when he takes the mound. Lee, in his last nine starts, has needed the bullpen to work just 2.2 innings. Needless to say with an ERA of under 3, don't expect much from the A's here. Dallas Braden has done his best work at home where he owns a 3.17 ERA, so the Rangers won't be digging in for any big innings here either. When facing lefthanders on the road, the Rangers have been 27-9-1 to the UNDER in their last 37. The A's are 23-9 to the UNDER in Braden's last 32 starts at home. I'll play this one to stay UNDER the total.
Ben Burns
CFL Game of the Year
Edmonton Eskimos -6
Bob Balfe
Pittsburgh Pirates +126
The Pirates are not that bad at home and Zack Duke is one of the best pitchers in the league (when healthy). Believe it or not, the Pirates have owned the Rockies in recent history and should get a big home win tonight behind Duke. Take Pittsburgh.
MIKE LINEBACK
4* Pittsburgh Pirates RL
4* SD Padres
4* Texas Rangers
PARLAY
4* NY Yankees/LA Dodgers
THE PREZ
7* Rays / Blue Jays Under 8.5
Matt Garza followed up his no hitter with a solid effort versus the Yankees and it's safe to say the Rays' right-hander has found his form. Garza struck out nine and walked just won in 7 innings of work. Garza’s K/BB ratio continues to head in the right direction: 2.09/2.17/2.39/2.52 which assists in what has been a declining GB percentage: 47.7%/41.7%/39.7%/34.5%.
After an impressive April and May (3.55 and 3.89 ERAs, respectively), Brett Cecil struggled in June but returned to form in July. Cecil’s overall numbers remain significantly better than his rookie season and while he is winless in his last three starts he's limited the big hit recording a 2.79 ERA trumps with a middling K ratio of 12/9. Cecil has lowered his BB/9 from 3.66 to 2.72 and HR/9 from 1.64 to just 0.84 in 86 innings of work this year and decreased his FIP from 5.37 to just 3.75 to go along with a 1.20 WHIP (compared to 1.65 in ’09).
Tampa Bay is 14-3 to the UNDER when facing a team with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games.
After overtaking the Yankees and move to the top of the AL East, the Rays have dropped consecutive games to fall back into second place. Consistency on offense has been an issue since the injury to Carlos Pena and it remains tonight against a tough road test against a capable southpaw.
Jeff Benton
15 Dime White Sox -1½
I know the Orioles have been playing inspired baseball this week with new manager Buck Showalter looking on from the dugout, sweeping a three-game series from the Angels. But Showalter isn’t some miracle worker, and the fact remains that this team’s 32-73 record prior to Showalter’s arrival had very little to do with the team’s skipper. In fact, managerial ineptitude probably ranks 99th out of 100 on the list of reasons why Baltimore stinks.
Ranking closer to #1 on that list of 100 reasons is Brad Bergesen. The Orioles’ right-hander has been atrocious this season, going 3-9 with a 6.63 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. Baltimore’s record in Bergesen’s last 13 appearances (11 starts)? 1-12. That includes six losses in his last six trips to the mound. For the season, the O’s are just 4-13 when Bergesen starts.
On the other hand, the White Sox are 7-3 in John Danks’ last 10 starts, including 3-1 on the road. In seven of those 10 contests, Danks gave up a total of eight earned runs in 52 2/3 innings (1.37 ERA), and he went 6-1 in those seven games (with five of the six being by more than one run). Also, Danks went 3-0 with a 2.46 ERA in three starts against the Orioles last season, and the final scores in those games were as follows: 8-2, 12-8, 4-1, all easily covering the run line!
While the Orioles deserve kudos for winning three in a row, the fact is the Angels are an ice-cold baseball team right now. Conversely, the White Sox have been on fire for two solid months. Chicago is 39-14 in its last 53 games overall, including 9-2 in the last 11. Those nine victories were by margins of 5, 11, 1, 4, 5, 3, 10, 3 and 2 runs.
Two final points: 1) The O’s have won four straight games just twice all season (they haven’t won more than four in a row); and 2) 36 of Baltimore’s last 42 losses have been by more than one run.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* LA Dodgers -1½
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is the Dodgers on the "run line":
John Lannan heads to the hill for the visitors; Lannan threw five frames on Sunday vs. the Phillies and received a no decision.
That was his first start since being recalled from the minors; he's just 2-5 on the year with a 5.63 ERA.
It's important to point out that Washington is in fact 6-17 its last 23 on the road overall; also just 8-15 its last 23 vs. LA.
In the other dugout: Clayton Kershaw gets the nod for the home side; Kershaw threw seven strong on Sunday vs. the Giants; he had six K's and walked four, but picked up the loss due to lack of run support.
He's 10-6 on the year with a very respectable 2.94 ERA.
Keep in mind that the Dodgers are in fact 4-2 their last six in front of the home town crowd; 10-1 their last 11 at Dodger Stadium vs. the Nats.
Bottom line: Coming off a shutout loss, and after struggling at the plate of late, I look for the home side to come out and play with an extremely concerted effort; when taking into account the rest of the above stats and trends, and when considering the discrepancy of talent of the starting pitchers;
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta -150
A battle of division leaders takes place in the opener of this three games series when the Braves send Tommy Hanson to the hill against the Giants at Turner Field in Atlanta. Hanson enters tonight contest with a sparkling 2.17 ERA in his last six starts. He's also 3-0 at home in his career team starts during the month of August. With that, look for Hanson to improve to 2-0 in his career team starts against San Francisco this evening. We recommend a 3-unit play on Atlanta.
Lenny Del Genio
Detroit -115
We lost with the Tigers yesterday, but we’re coming back with them again tonight against the hapless Angels. LA came from Baltimore where they were swept by the O’s, that’s right I said swept by the O’s. The Tigers haven’t been playing very good baseball slipping under the .500 mark, but their last 3 series have been versus Tampa Bay, Boston, and the White Sox, three pretty good teams. Good pitching matchup tonight has Weaver versus Verlander. The Angels starter has struggled this season on the road posting a 4.38 ERA and 5-7 team start record. Meanwhile, Verlander has been very tough at home posting a 8-2 team start record and impressive 2.65 ERA. The Tiger righty has been almost unbeatable at home versus losing teams like the Angels posting a 29-5 team start record. Weaver comes off a game in which he didn’t allow an earned run, and that’s not a good sign as Weaver is 2-9 over the last two years after allowing no runs in his last start. Tigers get this opening game tonight.
SEABASS
100 Yankees
50 White Sox
50 Dodgers -1.5
400 Edmonton
100 Montreal
200 Steam Yankees Over
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
BOOKIE BUSTING BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER
Kansas City and Seattle UNDER 7
BOOKIE BUSTING BASEBALL RUN LINE WINNER
Minnesota w/Liriano -1.5 -107