Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday July 10,2009

Ron Raymond
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
5* Indians / Tigers Over 8.5

Tony George
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Braves / Rockies Over 9

Chris Jordan

600♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS RUN LINE (Niemann over Mazzaro)
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Off the series sweep of the Blue Jays – thanks to back-to-back walk-off wins - the Rays have now won 12 of their last 18 and are suddenly surging once again; and the defending American League champions should have absolutely no problem picking up more steam heading into the final weekend before the All-Star Game.

The Rays have to feel especially confident since yesterday’s win came against arguably the best-performing pitcher of the first half, Toronto’s Roy Halladay. And all due respect to Oakland’s scrappy rookie Vin Mazzaro, who made his MLB debut at the beginning of June, Tampa will be much more confident at the plate.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The last time the A’s and Rays met here was in May, and though they split the four-game set, the Rays welcomed Oakland to the series with a 13-4 rout in the opener. They also won the previous series-opener, in Oakland back in April, 8-2.

And since Mazzaro suffered his fourth loss in five games and strolls into this one with a 2-4 mark and 3.59 ERA after his first five weeks as a big-league hurler, I don’t think he stands a chance in this road starts. Not when he’s given up 12 earned runs in 17 innings of work over his last three starts.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Instead, I am counting on Tampa Bay hurler Jeff Niemann, who is back in the rotation after skipping a turn so Tampa Bay ace James Shields could make an extra start before the midsummer classic. Tonight the 26-year-old rookie makes his 16th start of the season - his first since June 29 in Toronto, where he beat Roy Halladay – and I think he’s going to catch the fire the Rays have ignited recently to produce one of his best starts of the campaign.

Oakland comes in mired in a 5-11 skid, and the Rays have won nine of Niemann's previous 10 starts. Tonight is his second career start against the A's after allowing three earned runs on eight hits in eight innings for his first win at Tropicana Field on May 18.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Lay the run line here, as the Rays win this by at least five runs tonight.

Scott Rickenbach
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Top Play: Yankees / Angels Over
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Regular Play: A's / Rays Over

Lou Panelli
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
20* Yankees -125 (100 Dime VEGAS KEY INFO)
10* Colorado -145
10* Dodgers -135
10* Phillies over 9
10* St Louis under 8
10* Florida under 8

Rated Picks
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+130) 5 units
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Colorado Rockies -140 2 units
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+140) 2 units
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Minnesota Twins -130 2 units

Halfbets
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
8* Chicago Cubs ML +110

Jamie Tursini
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: St Louis Cardinals
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Have to love the small road favorite here.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
C.Carpenter has a road ERA of 2.26, with a WHIP of 0.79!
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
In daytime starts he's incredible. 3-1 with an ERA of 1.23, having allowed only 15 hits and 5 BB's in 36.2 innings! Having struck out 33 leading to a WHIP of only 0.55.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
R.Harden has struggled big time. At home he's 2-4 with a WHIP of 1.67, and an ERA of 7.65.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
In daytime starts he's been hit big time as well. 1-4 with a WHIP of 1.70, and an ERA of 7.41.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Too big of an advantage to not lay this price.

Jimmy Boyd
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
5* MLB Revenge Game of the Month on Boston -1.5 -115
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
After blowing a 4-0 lead to lose to a Royals team that is 10 games below .500 last night, you can expect Bean Town to bounce back in a big way. The Royals send Brian Bannister to the hill and he is 0-3 lifetime with an ERA of 8.22 and a WHIP of 1.696 when starting against Boston. Plus, the Royals are 0-7 in Bannister's last 7 Friday starts, and 0-4 in his last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. The Red Sox send southpaw Jon Lester to the mound. The Red Sox are 9-0 in Lester's last 9 starts as a home favorite of -201 or greater. Lester is also 11-0 against the money line when pitching against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season (according to games remaining) over the last 3 seasons with Boston winning these games by an average score of 7.4 to 2.9. Also, plays on all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (BOSTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, in the second half of the season are 45-4 since 1997. I like Boston by at least two runs here so I'll take them on the run line to avoid paying the heavy juice.

FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
3* Friday Night MLB Mound Mismatch on Astros -1.5 +114
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Houston has a huge edge on the hill tonight. The Nats send Olsen to the rubber and they are only 1-5 in his road starts this season where he has posted an ERA of 6.68 and a WHIP of 1.871. The Astros send ace Roy Oswalt to the mound and he has been unhittable of late, going 2-0 with an ERA of 1.17 and a WHIP of 0.739 over his last 3 starts. Washington is 0-10 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season (according to games remaining) over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 1.9 to 4.1. Also, Oswalt is 38-5 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season in his career, with his team winning these games by an average score of 5.9 to 2.6. Bet the Astros behind Oswalt.

Dave Busk

ATL +180 COL
CLE +130 DET

Find Big Winners from 7/9
Hottest Services Listed Over 16 Days
Coldest Services Listed Over 22 Days
Listed @
Service Plays Summary for July 9
http://www.thespread.com/forum/index.php?topic=64664.0

Rocketman Sports

4*-Texas (Morrow/Feldman)

Discreat Cat

Friday, July 10, 2009

1-for-2 on Wednesday,
with a winner on Octogarian ($5.00). Over Andover was scratched.

Hollywood - Race 5
#6 Allaboutimage (7/2 ml)
Latest New Zealand import from the Sadler/Doubledown tandem. Obviously, we've had a ton of success with this angle, the most recent example being Angus ($21.40) back on April 26. I've lost track of the American-debut win percentage for these Doubledown entrants, but i know it's well over 50%, with several of the winners becoming stakes horses (Crossing The Line, Black Mamba, Belmont Cat). Even one of the losers, Royal Taat, came back to score a huge win in her second American start. Also, at least three that i can remember (Parmar Day, Crossing The Line, Angus) scored their wins over this same Hollywood turf-sprint course). Hard not to like this one.

Hollywood - Race 8
#7 Pacific Halo (4/1 ml)
I gave this horse out a few weeks ago, and he ran very well as expected (opening up a nice lead in midstretch) but just seemed to get a little bit tired at the finish. He did have a right to get tired coming off a 4-month layoff, and figures to be more fit this time around. Still think he's a very nice horse (as maiden-claimers go), and the expected improvement would make him pretty tough here.

KBHoops

Early Release
Afternoon Game
5* Chicago Cubs -102

Other to follow later

Malinksy

6* Under Florida/Arizona
4* over 8.5 cinc/mets

REASON FOR PICK: 4* #956 NY METS/CINCINNATI Over

Struggling starters and tired bullpens are hardly the recipe for a pitcher’s duel, and that is why we were so surprised to find the 9’s left open as “win” numbers for this one. In a game in which there will be a vulnerable pitcher on the mound in every inning except for perhaps the 9th, asking each team to scratch out four runs does not make us beggars.

We are not sure that Bronson Arroyo should be pitching right now. A bout with carpal tunnel syndrome has turned his season into a mess, and the Reds have already stated the off-season surgery is in the cards. So why wait? Although cortisone shots have eased the pain a bit his game is a disaster right now, with an 0-3/10.29 over his last three starts that has actually been even worse than those baseline numbers. He allowed six home runs in only 14 innings in that span, with far more walks (9) than strikeouts (6), and a stratospheric 2.71 WHIP does not fully translate to the ERA column because there were a couple of unearned tallies that do not show up. There just is not any reason to believe that he turns around here, and with the Cincinnati starters only lasting 22 innings over the last five games a tired bullpen may reach overload. This will also be the second look for the Mets at him this season, and Arroyo has worked to an awful 8.85 over four second-look outings so far.

Fernando Nieve’s 3-2/2.73 helps to bring a low price here but that is not who he is. Like many call-ups he had an adrenaline rush through a few starts, which led to a couple of solid performances, but now that has worn off, and opposing teams also have scouting reports. As such he has lasted only nine innings over his last two starts, allowing six runs on 17 hits, with an ugly ratio of seven walks vs. only four strikeouts, and you can see part of where this bargain line comes from in that distribution – if you allow 17 hits and seven walks over nine frames, but only six runs scored, you have cashed a lottery ticket. Nieve is not a candidate to go deeply into a game even when his limited stuff is on, and that is bad news for the Met bullpen, after the starters could only generate 12 of the 27 innings in the series vs. the Dodgers.