KBHoops
5* Pittsburgh +158 **POD**
5* NY Mets -107
5* Washington +170
5* Kansas City +230
5* Oakland +148
Tim Trushel
20* Seattle
Jeff Benton
10 Dime: ASTROS on the run line (-1 1/2 runs over Nationals) ... NOTE: Specify Oswalt and Olsen as starting pitchers. If either does not start, this play is VOID!
5 Dime: Marlins-Diamondbacks UNDER the total ... NOTE: Nolasco (Florida) and Haren (Arizona) must start this game or this play is VOID!
Astros (-1½ runs)
I made a bad call with Washington last night, but I’m not about to make the same mistake twice, and the reason is Houston starter Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has been a dominant second-half pitcher in recent years, going 25-6 with a 2.53 ERA after the All-Star break, including 10-2 with a 2.24 ERA in 13 post-break starts last year. Well, it looks like Oswalt gotten a head start in 2009.Over his last three starts, the hard-throwing right-hander has given up a total of three runs (single runs in all three contests) on 12 hits with just five walks against 22 strikeouts over 23 innings. That equates to a scintillating 1.17 ERA. In his last two outings – both road victories over the Giants and Padres – Oswalt was virtually unhittable, giving up just five total hits and two runs in 17 innings with a 14-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.After struggling with consistency through the first 2 ½ months of the season, Oswalt is now 5-4 with a very respectable 3.81 ERA and a rock-solid 1.24 WHIP. In fact, he’s now got an 89-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and after serving up 12 home runs in his first 12 starts, he’s been taken deep just twice in his last six outings covering 44 innings. And no surprise to those who have followed Oswalt’s career, the guy is once again proving to be a workhorse, going at least six innings in 16 of 18 starts (and that includes one start in which he got yanked after one inning because of a lengthy rain delay).Granted, the Astros haven’t exactly been world beaters when Oswalt pitches, going just 8-6 in his last 14 outings. But the last seven of those wins have been by multiple runs. No reason to think #8 won’t come tonight. After all, not only is Oswalt in a serious groove right now, but he’s 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA in his career against the Nationals/Expos, and his opponent tonight is lefty Scott Olsen. While Olsen is coming off back-to-back quality starts (five runs allowed in 15 2/3 innings against Florida and Atlanta), he’s still just 2-4 with a 6.04 ERA, including 1-3 with a 6.68 ERA on the road.Washington is 2-7 overall in Olsen’s nine starts (1-5 on the road), and six of those seven defeats have been by more than one run. Finally, one of Olsen’s worst outings of the season came at home against Houston on May 5, when he gave up five runs in five innings in a game that was suspended in the 11th inning with the score tied at 10-10.Throw in the fact that each of Houston’s last eight wins and 12 of the last 15 have been by multiple runs, while Washington has failed to cover the run line in 11 of its last 14 losses, and this one’s a no-brainer. Lay the 1½ runs with a dominant Oswalt and the home team.
Marlins-DBacks UNDER
How do you play an under when these two teams combined for 21 runs just last night, with Florida scoring 10 runs in the eighth inning alone? Easy: Just look at the starting pitchers in this contest. Start with Florida’s Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has absolutely rediscovered himself since being sent to Triple-A after a horrid start to the season. In six starts since rejoining the big club, the big right-hander has given up a TOTAL of seven earned runs in 41 innings for a 1.54 ERA with a whopping 41-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last five starts. And not only is the under 5-1 in Nolasco’s six starts since his recall, but the five “unders” have featured combined run totals of 5, 3, 7, 6 and 5 runs.One more note about Nolasco: He’s 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA in four career starts against the DBacks, including 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA in three starts last year with Florida winning those three games by scores of 3-1, 3-1 and 5-2, all of them going under the number.As for Arizona starter Dan Haren, what really needs to be said? The All-Star has a 2.16 ERA and a ridiculous 0.83 WHIP (100 baserunners in 121 innings) for the season. He has a 1.95 ERA in eight home starts, allowing just 13 runs, 35 hits and eight walks while striking out 58 in 60 innings. And get this: Not only has Haren recorded eight consecutive quality starts, but he allowed one or two earned runs in all eight games while pitching at least seven innings in seven of those eight contests. In fact, prior to going six innings on Sunday in Colorado – Arizona won 4-3 – Haren had pitched at least seven innings in nine straight starts, and he’s lasted at least six frames in every single one of his 17 starts this season. Additionally, Haren faced Florida twice last year, giving up four earned runs in 13 1/3 innings (2.70 ERA), and though the DBacks lost both games, the scores were 4-0 and 4-3, both staying under the total.
Street Rosenthal
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
*200 Baltimore Orioles -104
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I am taking the Home team tonight for the Win. Here are several trends to back up the selection. First, we have the Blue Jays as 11-26 SU since 2004 season on the road within 20 cents of pickem when they blew a lead in their starter's last start. Plus, I have other trends totaling 16-59 SU against the Blue Jays. Take the Orioles for a Home win tonight.
Free Play
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
*300 Philadelphia Phillies -166
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I am backing the Phillies for a nice home win tonight vs the Pirates. Here are several nice trends in our favor. First, we have the Pirates as 2-17 SU since 2004 season as 140+ dogs after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and it is the first game of a series. Next, we find the the Pirates starter, Zach Duke, is 0-10 SU since 07-09-2006 as Away dog and line greater than 130 and they scored less than 3 runs in their last game. Finally, we have Phillies as 22-4 SU since 2004 sesason as a home favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit and it is the first game of a series. Take the Phillies tonight.
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket: Yanks/Angels Over
Marlins/D-backs Under
Steve Janus
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
5* Blue Chip Bet: NY Mets -120
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I'll take the Mets over the Reds tonight with Bronson Arroyo mathing up against Fernando Nieve. Arroyo has struggled this season, somehow earning an 8-8 record despite a 5.85 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Arroyo has been particularly bad, however, in his last three starts, where he is 0-3 with a 10.29 ERA and 2.71 WHIP. Meanwhile, Fernano Nieve has been a welcome addition to the Mets' rotation, going 3-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 5 starts, including an 0.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 2 starts in New York this season. Both teams have struggled offensively over the past week, but I like the Mets to get it going at home against Arroyo.
Pat Hawkins
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Marlins at D'Backs
Pick: UNDER 8
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Last night the Dolfins beat the cardinals 14-7 as the dolfins scored two TD's late in the game. Seriously last night game was a shoot about, there was no pitching to be found as we thought. Tonights game is the total opposite as both pitcher have been red hot. Nolasco has been un hittable of late, racking up double digit strike outs and limiting hits. Haren has been solid all season at home with a 1.95 ERA. Fla might be without Rameriez tonight so take advantage.
Sports Insight
Seattle +105
Oakland +151
Stephen Nover
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Lenny Del Genio
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
NEW YORK YANKEES
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Mike Lineback
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Marc Lawrence
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
COLORADO ROCKIES
squarepicks
5* Pittsburgh/Philadelphia Under 9 -115
5* Cincinnati/NY Mets Under 9 -105
5* Atlanta/Colorado Over 9.5 -107
Sharp Money
OVER in #977 Yankees
#601 UNDER San Antonio in the WNBA
#967 OVER in Cleveland
Robert Ferringo
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-180) over Washington
3.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-1.5, +110) over Washington
Note: This is my Game of the Week.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
If you can’t play the runline, I’m sorry, but I DO NOT recommend a 5-Unit play at -180. That’s just way too much juice. What I’ve done here is set up a wager of 620 to win 535, which has actually reduced the juice on this game to -115 (620 divided by 535). Now, if Houston wins by one run overall the play is a loss, but to me the value is better doing it this way than by having a 5-Unit Play at -180 or at -1.5, +110. You just have to trust me that the math works out better this way, and that win or lose this play offers the best value on all sides.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Now, I love Roy Oswalt. That I have professed time and time again. He is coming off three straight great outings and he has his “good stuff” once again. But that’s because he’s a second-half pitcher. This guys has a career mark around .500 in April and May but is an absolutely incredible 76-24 after July 1. On top of that he is 58-23 (72 percent) at Minute Maid Park, 51-24 (67 percent) against a sub-.500 team, and 55-21 (72 percent) as a home favorite. His opponent, Washington, is 14-41 in its last 55 games, 10-41 as a road underdog, 10-41 on the road overall, and 9-48 against a right-handed starter. That’s a lot of trends that are 70 percent and above. On top of that, Scott Olsen is on the mound for Washington. One of my favorite things to do is to fade a pitcher – especially mediocre, mid-level guys – after a complete game. If everything went right in the last start that usually sets the arm up for a significant letdown the next time on the bump. Well, Olsen went 8 and two-thirds in his last outing, which isn’t a CG but in my eyes it’s close enough. He threw 116 pitches, by far his most for the year. Over the last three years he is a putrid 5-12 in his next start after throwing 100 or more pitches. He’s just not a power guy and has a tough time bouncing back. He’s never been a good road pitcher and on a team that doesn’t play well behind him on the road that’s trouble. Also, Houston has been raking against left-handed pitching. I actually think that there numbers are a little off because they are No. 5 in the MLB against southpaws but just 4-7 in their last 11 against lefty pitchers. I think that by playing them against lefties right now we are catching them in the middle of a statistical regression. They dominated last night for a win and I think that backing their ace on a Friday night they will have their top game and keep it rolling. This team is back in contention and I think that they’re feeling it a bit.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
2.5-Unit Play. Take L.A. Dodgers (-135) over Milwaukee
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Tough, tough series for the Brewers this week against the Cardinals. In the meantime, the Dodgers were rocking the Mets and getting reacquainted with Manny Ramirez. I think that Chad Billingsley finally gets himself back together and gets that 10th win that he’s been hunting for. He’s been getting beat up lately but I think that he’s going to roll the Brew Crew today. Dodgers are 12-5 when he’s a favorite and the Brewers are just 4-9 as a home dog, which means that the oddsmakers have had them pegged pretty well. The Dodgers are one of the few teams that play well in Milwaukee. They are 35-17 against the Brewers over the last few years and I think that they jump out and get the first game in this series.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
2.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-125) over Chicago White Sox
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
John Danks has not been good on turf in his career and hasn’t been great against the Twins. Minnesota has been on a little slide against the red hot Yankees, but they are still 22-6 at home against a lefty starter. The White Sox overall aren’t very good on turf, going 7-20 in their last 27 and 0-4 in their last four meetings in the Metrodome. Nick Blackburn is 11-1 in his last his last 12 starts as a home chalk and 16-5 overall in his last 21 home starts overall.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
2-Unit Play. Take N.Y. Yankees (-120) over L.A. Angels
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I really like the value that Joba Chamberlain is producing for the Yankees. Joe Saunders is one of my favorite bets in the bigs and is the only reason this play is smaller. But the Yankees are just killing lefties right now. I think the Angels are primed for some kind of letdown after losing a series to Texas at home and after losing Vlad Guerrero for a little bit.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Boston (-1.5, -120) over Kansas City
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
This now opens up a Runline Chase on the Red Sox after last night's loss. KC won't escape Fenway without one ass-whooping.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (-1.5, +120) over Pittsburgh
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1-Unit Play. Take #979 Texas (-115) over Seattle (9:30 p.m., Friday, July 10)
Today's Totals
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
We have a LOT more totals today than usual because we got swept on our totals last night. Very rare occurrence. But I still feel confident in this recent ‘under’ system because it’s been working for weeks. Let’s go to the well until the well is dry. But as the weather warms up I’m getting close to ditching it, so this might be the last weekend/week of it.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Kansas City at Boston
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Florida at Arizona
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Cincinnati at N.Y. Mets
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Oakland at Tampa Bay
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Washington at Houston
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 San Diego at San Francisco
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Detroit at Cleveland
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
1-Unit Play. 5-INNING LINE. Take ‘Under’ 5.5 Atlanta at Colorado
NOTE: This is a 5-inning line.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
This is actually the first five-inning line that I’ve ever released with Doc’s Sports. See, I want to stay on the ‘under’ in this series as part of my system. But we have Paul Schrieber behind the dish and he has the smallest zone in the game. I think that Lowe and Jiminez can hold up for a few innings, but I don’t trust the bullpens to handle the 9.5 total on this game. So I’m going to roll the dice here and roll our system into this “short” play. If you can’t play 5-innings or just don’t want to I would say that there is no shortage of other action on the board for us.
Squarepicks
5* Pittsburgh/Philadelphia Under 9
5* Cincinnati/NY Mets Under 9
5* Atlanta/Colorado Over 9.5
Mike Neri
Colorado w/Jimmenez -135