Scott Rickenbach
10* Cleveland vs Detroit Over
While it is true that the Indians are currently battling through a number of injuries, it is also true that they’ve seen a number of hitters step up as replacements. That’s why we won’t hesitate to step out with a play on the over here as the Indians continue to battle through injuries. While Jayson Nix isn’t hitting for average, he’s coming up with some big hits including 3 doubles and 6 homers in his 59 at bats. Catcher Carlos Santana has a .568 slugging percentage! First baseman Matt LaPorta is hitting .357 since he was recalled from the minors. It’s guys like this that are stepping up and helping to make up for the absence of guys like Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, and Asdrubal Cabrera. As for the Tigers, they are averaging nearly 11 hits per game in the month of July and that certainly has helped play a role in their recent run of going 5-1-1 to the over in their last 7 games. Detroit is 23-15 to the over this season when facing a team with a losing record on the season. Also, the Indians are 12-7 to the over as a home dog of +100 to +125 this season. Cleveland is also 30-20 to the over this season when they are coming off of a loss.
As for the pitching match-up here, note that the Tigers Max Scherzer since he was recalled from the minors. However, a number of his starts since then have come against struggling clubs and/or National League teams that weren’t familiar with him. He now faces an Indians team that just saw him about two months ago and Cleveland pounded him for five earned runs on nine hits in just five innings of work. Additionally, Scherzer is 5-2 at home this season but note that he’s gone 1-4 on the road with a 5.44 ERA. Also, Scherzer has a 2.81 ERA in day games this season but a 6.06 ERA in night games. The Tigers bullpen also has faltered some of late and that has certainly played a role in Detroit allowing a total of 80 hits in their last 7 games. The Indians have their own pitching issues to be concerned with here.
Cleveland’s bullpen has an ERA this season that ranks them among the worst pens in the majors! Additionally, the Indians are sending a “suspect” Jake Westbrook to the mound tonight. We use the word “suspect” when describing Westbrook because he’s been very inconsistent in recent outings. This includes allowing three homers in his final start before the All-Star break. Of significant concern here is the fact that Westbrook has not enjoyed success against the Tigers in his career. The Indians right-hander has gone 5-8 against Detroit while compiling an ugly 5.69 ERA and been rocked on the mound to the tune of a .299 batting average by Tigers hitters. Uncharacteristically, Westbrook did enjoy success against the Tigers the last time he faced them but he’s now catching them at the wrong time. The Detroit lineup rolls into this game with plenty of confidence based on their recent results at the plate. Knowing that they’ve enjoyed success in their careers against Westbrook also certainly helps the confidence level and they should have little trouble scoring early and often in this one as they improve to 6-1-1 to the over in their last 8 games! Play OVER the total in Cleveland as a *10* Top Play selection
Teddy Covers
NY Mets
Bill Marzano
Matchup: Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) SHIELDS, J vs. (L) SABATHIA, CC
Play: N.Y. Yankees (-1.5 +106)
I really like the NY Yankees in this game vs the TB Rays...big pitching advantage here for the Yankees with CC Sabathia on the hill...CC has eight straight victories while allowing just one earned run or less in each of his last five starts...the Yankees are 23-5 in Sabathias last 28 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance...13-3 in Sabathias last 16 starts during game 1 of a series...J.Shields has really struggled as of late...Shields has just one win in his last nine starts and has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts...the Rays are just 1-10 in Shields' last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game...1-10 in Shields' last 11 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game...0-6 in Shields' last 6 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5...0-7 in Shields' last 7 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200...0-9 in Shields' last 9 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200...I like the Yankees run line
King Creole
2* Rangers / Red Sox Under 9.5
In last night's Game One of this series, Texas put up a 6-spot in the FIRST inning... and the game STILL went Under the Total. That result played right into the OU tendencies of this series. Texas and Boston have gone 3-11 O/U in the last 14 meetings in this series... with an average of only combined runs per game. That includes 2-6 O/U 'In this Park.
Felix Doubront makes his second start of the season for the host Red Sox. We were on the UNDER in his debut last week, and the result was a final score of 3-2 in his start vs the Tampa Bay Rays... in which he allowed only 2 earned runs. One of the nicer aspects of Doubront is that he is a lefty.... and the Rangers have been having their share of problems hitting against southpaws as of late (.238 vs lefties last 10 games).
He'll be facing Colby Lewis of the Rangers... who come in with FIVE Quality Starts in his last 6 outings. In those games, he has allowed 3 earned runs or less in five of 'em... with an ERA of only 2.85 and a fantastic K/BB ratio of 46 to 10. He's actually been a BETTER pitcher in his road starts this season, with an ERA of 3.26 and a 2-7 O/U record overall. And he's been a MUCH better pitcher in NIGHT starts (2.87 ERA / 3-9 O/U)... than in DAY starts (4.85 ERA).
Behind the dish tonight at Fenway Park will be PAUL EMMEL... one of our favorite 'UNDER' Umpires. His YTD record stands at 5-11-2 overall with a 2.46 to 1 K/BB ratio... and an average of only 7.2 combined runs per game. And he's done even BETTER as of late. Emmel has gone a PERFECT 0-5-1 O/U in his last 6 games dating back to the middle of June. Average combined runs in those games is only 6.6.
Dwayne Bryant
LA Angels -131
Yes, Felix is a phenomenal pitcher and he's been on quite a tear, but these Angels just seem to have his number. Hernandez is 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA in 18 starts versus Los Angeles, and the M's have lost 6 of Felix's last 8 starts against the Angels. Hernandez's worst start of the season came against the Angels. He surrendered 8 runs in 3 1/3 innings of a…n 8-0 defeat on May 7th in Seattle.
Many will point out Jered Weaver's last two starts, in which he allowed 9 runs in 12 1/3 innings, and say that he's in a funk. I disagree. I say, "Throw out those last two starts because they were ROAD starts." Not only that, but his K/BB ratio was still 12/1 in those two games, so you know he's still in good form. It's just that Weaver is a different pitcher at Angel Stadium. In 11 road starts, Weaver owns a 4.37 ERA, .246 BAA, and .417 opponents slugging percentage. But in his 8 home starts (ALL Quality Starts), he sports a 1.70 ERA, .194 BAA, and .291 opponents slugging percentage.
Then we look at the offenses. On the road, Seattle is batting .233 and scoring 3.5 runs per game against righties. At home, the Angels are hitting .256 and scoring 4.7 runs per game against righties. That's a nice 1.2 runs per game edge for LA.
Just in case they're needed for an inning or two: Seattle's pen owns an 8.27 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, and .318 BAA in their last five outings. The Angels pen has been much more respectable in their last five games, sporting a 2.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and .265 BAA. Home/road bullpen splits also favor the Angels, who own a 4.02 ERA and .254 BAA at home. Seattle's pen sports a 5.24 ERA and .284 BAA on the road.
Bottom line: We have the better bullpen (in better current form as well) and the better offensive team. The starting pitching edge could go either way. Some would call it even. Some would favor Felix. I favor Weaver based on his home numbers. But even if Felix matches Weaver pitch for pitch, we have the better offensive team and bullpen behind us.
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units Washington Nationals -120
4 Units Cincinnati Reds -130
4 Units NY Yankees Over 8.5
KELSO
25 Units Kansas City Royals -145
15 Units Nationals / Marlins Under 7
10 Units Atlanta Braves -1.5 +121
Rocketman
5* Houston -115
My 1st post goes to blade.
Thanks for seperating the premium and free plays man. I know it takes time.
Thanks again,
Ice
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Houston at Pittsburgh
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) MYERS, B vs. (L) DUKE, Z
Play: Houston (ML -115)
The Astros are not much good on the road, and the Pirates are actually not far from being a .500 team at home. But I'm looking for Houston to emerge with the win tonight. Brett Myers is throwing it really well for the Astros, and there's no reason he can't put together another quality start facing a popgun Pittsburgh attack that has been notably feeble against almost every decent righty they've faced. Duke is off an injury, and his two rehab stints with Altoona, while reasonably effective, were just seven innings total in duration. It's also interesting to note that while Duke is not a strikeout pitcher, he had just one K in the two AA games, low even by his standards. The Astros are not horrible against lefties, and I like their chances of notching a win tonight as cheap road chalk.
Lee Kostroski
10* SF Giants -120
Jeff Benton
20 DIME ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
10 DIME HOUSTON ASTROS
Cardinals
Simply put, the Dodgers cannot win in St. Louis. With last night’s 7-1 shellacking, Los Angeles dropped to 6-20 in its last 26 games at Busch Stadium. That includes three losses in games that Chad Billingsley has started under the arch. In fact, the Dodgers are just 1-4 all-time when Billingsley faces the Cardinals, and if you take away the one win – a 7-3 home victory last August – Billingsley’s ERA against the Cards is 5.23.
Billingsley’s counteapart tonight is rookie left-hander Jaime Garcia, who might have been the biggest snub of all at this week’s All-Star game. Garcia failed to earn a spot on the N.L. roster despite an 8-4 record and a 2.17 ERA. At home this season, Garcia has been brilliant, allowing just six earned runs in 45 innings (1.20 ERA).
Garcia is facing a Dodgers offense that has not hit left-handed pitching very well this season (.256 average compareed with .271 against righties). Also, the Dodgers have now dropped below .500 on the road (21-22). Conversely, the Redbirds are now 28-15 at Busch Stadium, and the main reason – as we saw on Thursday with Chris Carpenter – has been pitching, as St. Louis’ staff sports a 2.80 team ERA at home.
The Cards have won eight of their last 11 home games against right-handed starters and 21 of their last 28 on Friday (L.A. is 1-4 in its last five Friday contests). Finally, the home team has dominoated this rivalry lately, winning 13 of the last 18 meetings, including all four clashes this season.
Astros
Obviously, nobody’s gotten rich playing the Astros on the road, especially as a favorite. But I’m willing to give Houston and Brett Myers a shot tonight in Pittsburgh for several reasons.
First and foremost, the Astros have manhandled the Pirates this season, winning all six meetings by a combined score of 33-13. Granted, all six games were played in Houston, but still, going back to last year, the Astros are 22-6 against the Pirates, including 4-1 in the last five games at PNC Park.
As for Myers, he’s been very good of late, holding seven of his last 10 opponents to two earned runs or less. In his final two starts prior to the All-Star break, Myers surrendered just three runs on nine hits and one walk in 14 innings. And the right-hander has been durable as hell, going at least six innings in each of his 18 starts this season.
Myers owns a 10-3 victory against the Pirates this season, and he’s got a 2.68 career ERA against Pittsburgh in nine appearances (eight starts).
The Pirates get lefty Zach Duke back from the disabled list tonight, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. He’s just 3-8 with a 5.49 ERA this year, including 0-4 with an 8.18 ERA in his last four outings before going on the shelf.
Throw in the fact the Astros have won four of five as a favorite and five of seven against N.L. Central rivals, while the Pirates have lost 38 of 52 overall (including the last six in a row) and five of Duke’s last six home starts, and this is a strong play at a cheap price.
Bob Akmens
10* San Diego Padres
Street Rosenthal
*200 Florida Marlins +110
*200 Kansas City Royals -144
*200 LA Angels -130
Lenny Del Genio
Kansas City Royals -135
The Royals and A’s open their second half of the season tonight in KC. Looks like a good pitching matchup with Gonzalez facing Greinke. However, we think it’s going to be a pitching mismatch. KC’s Greinke has an awful 6-12 team start record this season, but his ERA is a very good 3.71. In his last three starts he’s recorded a perfect 3-0 team start record and an outstanding 2.74 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. In his last outing he went seven strong earnings without allowing an earned run and whiffed 9 opposing hitters. Meanwhile Gonzalez has a lofty 4.71 ERA on the road this season and was rocked in his last outing going only four innings and allowing five earned runs. His control has been a big problem of late walking 13 batters in only 16 2/3 innings. In looking at career numbers Greinke has faced these A’s seven times and has allowed three runs or less in all seven games. For Gonzalez it’s been quite the opposite in his two outings versus the Royals going 9 1/3 innings and allowing 8 earned runs. On a team aspect the Royals, believe it or not, hit the ball very well at home posting a .294 batting average while the A’s on the road hit only .259. Also, the A’s have struggled against pitchers like Grienke who have a WHIP of 1.200 or better posting a 7-29 record. It all adds up to a easy Royals win.