Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Cincinnati Reds -122
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Jason Hammel heads to the hill for the visitors; there isn't many negative things you can say about Hammel; he's on a 5-0 run and is 7-3 with a 4.08 ERA on the year.
He got a no decision in his only start against the Reds this year.
Keep in mind though that Colorado is in fact just 3-10 (-6.8 units) as a road dog in the +100 to +125 range this season.
In the other dugout: Bronson Arroyo gets the nod for the home side; Arroyo went 9-4 with a 4.04 ERA in the first half of the season; he's gone 4-1 with a 2.76 ERA over his last seven starts.
Remember, the Reds are 5-2 their last seven in front of the home town crowd; 33-28 (+5.2 units) vs. right handed starters.
Bottom line: Hammel's road ERA balloons to 6.11, which is nearly three runs higher than at home.
Home field advantage and the break can not be overlooked here;
Stan Lisowski
3* SF Giants
The Giants have been hitting lefties pretty good at home this season, batting .295 at home against them so far. San Francisco is a solid host club going 26-17 while the home team is 55-34 in Mets’ games this year. The Giants have won 6 of Zito’s home starts while he has a 2.83 ERA pitching in those games.
KEITH FREDRICK
Dodgers at Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals -135
Dodgers are 2-7 as away dogs of this range this season and are going against a Cardinal team that is - after yesterday's win - 28-15 at home on the season. St Louis starter Garcia has a 1.20 Home ERA on the season and tossed seven shutout innings in his last outing. Thought this line would be closer to the -150 range; Cards get the call.
BOB BALFE
Pittsburgh Pirates -103
Both teams are going nowhere this season, but I like Zach Duke coming off the DL. He will be fresh and excited to pitch tonight. The Pirates are not as bad as their second to last place record in the MLB would indicate. Look for Pittsburgh to get a good outing from Duke at home and score enough runs to pick up the W. Take the Pirates.
MATT FARGO
9* Winnipeg Blue Bombers
I love the way this game sets up for Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers are not expected to do much this season after retooling pretty much the whole team from GM to coach to quarterback. However, those types of changes can be great for a team, especially one that had a disappointing season a year ago. Winnipeg should be 2-0 right now as it dominated Toronto last week but came up with the short end of the stick in a two-point loss. If anything, that provides motivation going forward. The Blue Bombers took easy care of Hamilton in the first game of the season and while that provides a revenge spot for the Tiger Cats, there is something in the way that is more important. They had a chance to defeat powerhouse Calgary but came up a point short and that is a tough loss to overcome. It can be said that the motivation for revenge can overtake that but I don’t think that is the case as Hamilton actually came into that game as the favorite and basically laid an egg when it had a chance to shine. Even though it has already won one of the meetings this season, I see the Blue Bombers coming out to play as they were robbed of a win last week and it is backed up by a superior power situation. Play on underdogs or pickems playing a division opponent that is coming off a loss as a home favorite. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. We should see another Winnipeg victory on Saturday. 9* Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Triple Threat Sports
2* Tampa Bay Rays
Just no way to pass up this type value with a team as good as the Rays are and in a spot in which they have a lot of statistical edges. Note that Tampa Bay is 28-14 on the road this season and is an outstanding 22-8 vs left handed starters on the year. For their part the Yankees are just 6-4 as heavy home chalk, actually minus units on the year in this spot. A look at the respective bullpens shows that the Rays have a 3.28 bullpen ERA (2.75 Away) as compared to the 4.14 (5.30 Home) mark of the Bronx Bombers. With all due respect given to the fact that this is the first game for the Yankees since George Steinbrenner's passing, these teams are just to close in talent, season long performance, and current form (both are 8-1 last nine games) for this line to be this high. Have to take a shot with the Rays here.
The Duke's Sports
Washington Under (7) for 2 Units
This series has gone 2-4 o/U this season and we believe the setting is right for another "under" here. Both of tonight's starters are in great form: Strasburg has been dynamic since he stepped on major league soil. And Florida is batting a meager .240 vs righties this month. On the other hand, the Marlins' Ricky Nolasco has been hard to hit at home and should breeze by a Nationals' lineup that is batting just .235 on the road vs righties. Nolasco is 6-0 with a 2.98 ERA in 8 starts vs Washington. And the Florida bullpen sports a respectable 2.64 ERA this month. "Under" the call.