DAVID MALINSKY
4* PITTSBURGH +1.5 -125 over PHILADELPHIA
Our rule of thumb is an automatic one for settings like this – we will not back a team of Pittsburgh’s class to win a game outright when the closer is not fresh, and with Octavio Dotel having pitched each of the last two games, that is an issue. Octel only needed 22 pitches to finish those games, which could have him available anyway here, but we will choose the Run Line as the path, since it fits most of the base logic anyway – we will force a limited Philadelphia lineup to get a margin. The Phillies are just 14-25 as -1.5 on the road this season (we count the Toronto series as home games), and most of those games came with much more on the field than they can send out tonight.
It is naturally a signifcant difference when Chase Utley and Placido Polanco are sidelined, which has shown in the last two games, but there will be an additional dropoff tonight, with Brian Schneider likely to miss with a hyperextended left thumb. That would force either Dane Sardinha or Paul Hoover into the lineup, leaving a group that should not frighten anyone. And with Ross Ohlendorf having overcome those early control problems (six W’s over 23 IP of his last four starts, at at least a 1.40 ratio of ground ball outs to fly outs in each of those games), and actually sporting a 7-4 as +1.5 over his 11 starts, something that the 0-6/4.90 of the pitching forms will completely miss, we have a good fit.
So why are the Phillies in such a range despite their issues? The appearance of great current form by Jamie Moyer. But while we truly admire what the geriatric left-hander has been able to do this season, they are now setting up unrealistic price points in terms of going forward. That 4.30 ERA is a nice shaving off of LY’s 4.94, but a great deal of that comes from baseball geometry – his BABIP sits at .231, and of the 131 pitchers that have worked at least 60 IP, no lone has a lower rate. That count could easily increase by 50-60 points over the course of the summer, and that makes this the ideal time to begin stepping in against him.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* SD Padres -155
Analysis: For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Roy Oswalt gets the nod for the visitors; Oswalt allowed eight runs in 4 2/3's innings on Sunday in a 10-1 loss to the Rangers (my MLB "GOY").
He walked four and struck out two; "I was missing spots, throwing it over the middle of the plate," Oswalt said. "The ball was running on me a little bit. ... It was location more than anything."
Houston has scored less then three runs a game for Oswalt; he's 5-10 on the year with a 3.55 ERA.
Important to note that Houston is in fact a poor 3-5 (-0.8 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +150 range.
In the other dugout: Mat Latos heads to the hill for the home side; Latos is coming off a 4-2 win over the Marlins on Sunday; he struck out five; he's 8-4 on the year with a 2.85 ERA.
Keep in mind that San Diego is an awesome 22-11 (+12.8 units) after a loss; 4-0 (+4 units) this year as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range.
Bottom line: Although Oswalt has enjoyed success against the Padres, I believe he'll stumble once again here as the trade rumors continue to swirl around him; a very decent price on Latos when taking all of the above factors into consideration; 10* "BIG EA$Y" on the SAN DIEGO PADRES!
Larry Ness
Perfect Storm - LA Dodgers -115
The D'backs hired AJ Hinch as their manager despite no managerial experience (at ANY level) and have now fired him, along with GM Josh Byrnes. Arizona is 31-48 in 2010 (15 games out of first place in the NL West) and was 89-123 overall, under Hinch. The D'backs have replaced him with Kirk Gibson and NATURALLY, Gibson faces the Dodgers in his first game as interim manager, the team he helped to a World Series title in 1988 by hitting one of MLB's most dramatic HRs in postseason history (can't make this stuff up!). The Dodgers were an awful 4-11 in IL play (2-10 during the just completed 17-day stretch) but celebrated their return to intraleague play by sweeping a three-game series up in San Francisco (Mon-Wed). The starting pitchers are Hiroki Kuroda and Edwin Jackson for tonight's game. Kuroda went 9-10 (3.73 ERA) as a rookie in 2008 and was named LA's Opening Day starter in 2009. However, he suffered an injury during a bullpen session in early April and was not able to rejoin the rotation until June 1st. Despite missing much of the season while battling numerous injuries, Kuroda made 20 starts in 2009 and finished with a 8-7 record and 3.76 ERA. He's 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA in 15 starts this season (team is 10-5). While the Dodgers are 6-2 in his home starts and 4-3 in his road starts, his road ERA (2.93) is better (3.55 home ERA). Edwin Jackson was once labeled a "can’t-miss" prospect in the Dodgers’ system. However, he never delivered and was traded in 2006 to the Rays. He had a awful 2007 season (5-15, 5.76 ERA / team was 8-23) but went 14-11 (4.22) when the team made the 2008 World Series. Still, he was traded to Detroit before last year and had strong first half (made All Star team), finishing 13-9 (3.62). He was traded in the off-season again, to Arizona. He got off to a very poor start, including a HORRIFIC six-start stretch (April 16-May 12) when he went 0-4 (team was 0-6). He allowed 10, eight and six ERs in THREE of those six games! However, he's 4-1 in his eight starts since May 17 (team is 5-3), including pitching a no-hitter in his last outing. As most know, it was an ODD performance, as he walked EIGHT batters (seven in the 1st three innings) and threw 149 pitches, the most in a MLB game in FIVE years! I realize that Jackson has shone vs his former clubs this year, posting a combined 1.05 ERA in outings at Dodger Stadium (June 2), Comerica Park (June 19) and Tropicana Field (June 25, site of his no-hitter). However, coming off that no-hitter, I expect him to struggle. Remember, his ERA is 4.63 in 16 starts this year, including 5.17 here at Chase Field! The Dodgers have beaten the D'backs SEVEN straight times and let's also note that LA is 21-5 vs NL West rivals in 2010, including winning 16 of their last 18!
Lenny Del Genio
CWS / TEX Over 9.5
We had Texas under last night and they delivered in their 2-1 loss to the Angels. However, that game was in LA and that game was against Weaver. Tonight, the Rangers are back at home where they are scoring 6.2 runs per game and hitting .306 on the season, and they’re facing Garcia. The Sox righty has been roughed up on the road this season with a 5.18 ERA in 7 starts and two of those outings were against the weak hitting Pirates and Nationals. Tonight, it will be much different facing this Texas lineup. Over the last three seasons the Rangers are 33-15 over the total against AL Central opponents and this season are a very profitable 22-13 over when their last game went under the total. Lewis gets the start for the Rangers and although he has good numbers he has a 12-1 over mark against teams like Chicago who are averaging 4.7 runs or less per game. Add in the fact that the White Sox are 15-6 over this season when facing a pitcher like Lewis who strikes out 5 or more batters per start and it all adds up to a high scoring game tonight in Texas. Play the Rangers and White Sox Over.
King Creole
2* Phillies / Pirates Under 8.5
Yesterday's Game One of this series had a final score of 3 to 2. It easily went UNDER the Total of 8.5 runs. And the outcome was NOT surprising... given the OU tendencies of this series. When the Pirates take on the Phillies, the UNDER has gone 3-10 O/U in the last 13 meetings since the 2008 season. Average OU line: 9.0. Average combined runs scored: only 6.9. And in the games played IN Pittsburgh, the results have been 1-4 O/U in the same time span.
Crafty Southpaw JAMIE MOYER gets the call for the visiting Phillies. It certainly helps our cause when we see that the Buccos are hitting only .192 vs lefties in their last ten games. And Moyer comes in to tonight's start in his BEST form of the season. Total earned runs allowed in his last 3 starts is just 2, 1, and 2 overall (ERA of only 1.96). Opponents are hitting only .159 vs him in those starts... and his K/BB ratio of 17 to 2 indicates another slid outing is in order. Dating back to late May, He's gone UNDER the TOTAL at a 75% clip. Moyer is also 1-7 O/U in his last 8 favorite roles... 0-4 O/U in Game Two of a series... 1-4 O/U on 4 days rest... and 2-6 O/U on Fridays. His Phillie teammates are 2-9 O/U in their last 11 road favorite roles (0-5 O/U as RF's of -150 or less).... 8-22-1 O/U on Fridays... and 6-15-1 O/U in Game Two of a series.
ROSS OHLENDORF of the host Pirates is ALSO off his BEST start of the 2010 season. He just went 6 innings on the road vs the Oakland A's on Sunday. He allowed ONLY 2 hits overall and ZERO earned runs in a 3-2 loss. His ERA at home vs the Phillies in his career is just 2.84. His current OU trends include: 1-15-2 O/U when pitching on 4 days rest... 1-11 O/U in Game Two of a series... 3-12 O/U as a dog of +150 or less.... 1-5-1 O/U vs winning (> .500) opponents... 1-5-1 O/U pitching off a Quality Start... 2-6 O/U in his last 8 home starts. His Pittsburgh teammates have gone UNDER in EACH of their last 6 games (0-6 O/U).
Sealing the deal tonight is the man 'behind the dish'. MIKE ESTABROOK is one of our favorite UNDER Umpires. He's already tied for second-BEST in Under results for the 2010 season with an overall record of 4-11 O/U. That includes 0-2 O/U in his last 2 games (only 3.5 RPG)... and 2-6-1 O/U in his last 9 games dating back to the middle of May (only 6.7 RPG). When we're on an UNDER Umpire, it's important to side with a guy that has a high strikeout-to-walk ratio. A lot of 'punch outs' (strikeouts) means an out WITHOUT advancing a base runner. And a lack of walks means no FREE (or extra) baserunners. Estabrook's K/BB ratio in his last 5 games is a very impressive 98 to 31. That's a ratio of 3.16 K's for every walk.
NSA
20* Yanks -155
20* Red Sox Over 10.5
20* Angels -165
TEDDY COVERS
Mets
Phillies/Pirates Under 8.5
KELSO
50 Units TB Rays -115
15 Units LA Angels -160
10 Units Oakland -120
3 Units LA Dodgers -115
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units TB Rays -115
4 Units Atlanta Braves UNDER 7
4 Units Oakland A's -120
Hot Shot Sports
3* SF Giants
MIKE LINEBACK
4* Phillies/Pirates Over 8.5
4* W.Sox/Rangers Over 9.5
JEFF BENTON
40 DIME LOS ANGELES DODGERS
10 DIME CLEVELAND INDIANS
Dodgers
How can I fade a pitcher who is coming off a no-hitter? Easy: That pitcher needed a career-high 149 pitches to toss that no-hitter. And that right there is the main reason for this play on the Dodgers. I just don’t trust Arizona right-hander Edwin Jackson – despite an extra day of rest – to bounce back strong after such a taxing performance at Tampa Bay a week ago tonight.
The reason it was so taxing was Jackson couldn’t find the plate, walking eight Rays over nine innings. And that 149-pitch outing marked the 10th consacutive start that Jackson has thrown over 100 pitches, and he’s topped 113 pitches six times in his last nine trips to the mound. Eventually, that type of workload is going to catch up to you, and I’m betting it happens tonight against the Dodgers, who have already defeated Arizona twice this season with Jackson starting (6-3 in Arizona on May 12 and 1-0 in Los Angeles on June 2).
In fact, Los Angeles is 8-1 against the DBacks this season, winning the last seven games in a row. Going back to last season, the Dodgers have won 24 of the last 32 meeteings, going 6-1 in their last seven games at Chase Field.
While Arizona tonight hands the ball to Jackson, who is just 2-3 with a 5.17 ERA in eight home starts this season, the Dodgers are going with Hiroki Kuroda. The right-hander has a 3.27 ERA in 15 starts (10 of which L.A. has won) and a 2.93 ERA in seven road starts. He’s also 5-3 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 nighttime starts (with the Dodgers going 8-3).
Kuroda has faced the DBacks eight times since moving from the Japanese leagues to the big leagues, and he’s given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of those contests. That includes a two starts this year, with Kuroda yielding four earned runs while striking out 16 in 14 1/3 innings as L.A. prevailed 6-5 (home) and 6-3 (road).
Finally, the Dodgers arrive in the desert with plenty of confidence, having just swept a three-game series at San Francisco by scores of 8-2, 4-2 and 4-2, and they’ve now won four in a row on the road. L.A. is also 65-28 in its last 93 games against N.L. West rivals (including the seven straight victories over Arizona), and with Kuroda on the mound, the Dodgers are on runs of 8-2 in series openers, 4-1 against N.L. West foes, 12-4 when he’s coming off five days of rest and 4-0 on Friday.
Conversely, the DBacks are in slumps of 11-24 overall, 16-35 versus N.L. West foes, 11-23 against winning teams and 0-6 when Jackson pitches against divisional opoonents. And Arizona is just 18-18 at Chase Field for the season, thanks mostly to an awful bullpen that has a 6.98 ERA overall and a 6.66 ERA at home.
Indians
Cleveland is coming off a four-game sweep of the Blue Jays and has won its last five in a row since Sunday (a streak that comes on the heels of a seven-game losing skid and a 1-11 slump). The reason for the Tribe’s resurgence has been pitching. It has given up just nine runs in its last four games, and right-hander Mitch Talbot got it all started in Sunday’s 5-3 win at Cincinnati. He gave up just one run on three hits and three walks in seven innings, and that followed a two-run, four-hit, three-walk, seven-inning effort at Philadelphia on June 22.
Actually, Talbot has delivered six outstanding starts in his last seven, and he’s pitched at least into the seventh inning in five of those contests. Take out an ugly home outing against the Mets (8 runs allowed in 5 2/3 innings), and Talbot’s ERA going back to May 25 is 2.58.
In fairness, I should point out that A’s lefty Gio Gonzalez has been on his game, too. He’s allowed just two runs (one earned) on eight hits and five walks in his last two starts covering 13 innings. However, both those games were at home (vs. the Reds and Pirates), and Gonzalez has proven to be a much different pitcher in Oakland (4-2, 2.36 ERA) than on the road (2-3, 5.44 ERA). Also, Gonzalez has been immensely better in day games (4-0, 1.30 ERA in five starts, with the A’s going 5-0) than at night (2-5, 5.11 ERA in 11 starts, with the A’s going 3-8). At the same time, Talbot is 5-3 with a 3.48 ERA in nine night contests, and Cleveland is 6-3.
Yes, Oakland has won seven of eight against the Indians since last year, but six of those wins were in California. The A’s, who have lost 25 of 40 roadies this season, are 1-6 in their last seven games in Cleveland. In fact, the home team is on a 12-2 roll in this rivalry.
The Duke's Sports
Pittsburgh (+138) for 2 Units
To metaphorically sum up MLB's worst teams, the sun eventually shines on a dog's ass now and then; even cellar dwellers make a run now and then. Pittsburgh won 4 of 5 in April and in early May, yet hasn't matched that since; therefore, we believe the stars are aligned in favor of Pittsburgh delivering tonight; after all, they're facing a struggling Phillies team that's had trouble at Pittsburgh (1-4), 0-4 as a road favorite of -110 to -150, and just 1-9 on the road when the 'total' is set at 7 to 8'. And the only bright spot on Ohlendorf's resume for Pitt is that he is 6-2 as a home dog in this price range. And throw in the fact that Pitt 's only favorable stat is that they're 5-3 in game 2 of a series following a win and the Buc's may get sun where the sun doesn't usually shine.
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Chi. White Sox at Texas
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) GARCIA, F vs. (R) LEWIS, C
Play: Chi. White Sox (ML +165)
The White Sox have cooled off a little since their double digit winning streak, but I like their chances of scoring the upset win tonight. Freddy Garcia is on fire for the visitors, and a big part of that hot streak has been the veteran righty's outstanding control. He's just not walking anyone, and that means it's necessary for teams to string together multiple hits to get their runs against Garcia right now. Colby Lewis has done a terrific job for the Rangers. But the fact that Texas bumped him back a couple days off a poor outing suggests he may be in one of those dead arm periods. The Rangers are traveling back from a critical series at Anaheim, while the White Sox got a day off on Thursday. Even though the Rangers have been monsters at home, this looks like a tough spot for them tonight. At the big dog odds, I think the White Sox are an excellent value play.
Street Rosenthal
*300 Detroit Tigers -174
*200 Colorado Rockies -102