Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, July 23,2010

Paul Leiner

50* KC/NYY Over 10

25* Twins -140

Totals 4 U

Top Play (Super Total)
NYY UNDER 10.5

Regular Plays
Atl OVER 8.5
SF UNDER 9
Minn UNDER 9
Tx UNDER 9.5

Platinum Plays

Premier Play (Highest Play)
TB

400,000K Play
Cincy

Regular Plays
Oak
Seattle
SD
SF

Dave Cokin

Solid Gold - Marlins

Pirates

Bos/Sea Under 8

Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play New York Yankees (-230) over Kansas City

Kansas City pitcher, Brian Bannister has lost 11 of the last 13 games when pitching on a Friday and he has also lost 21 of the last 30 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season. Brian Bannister is 2-5 in road games this season with an ERA of 7.04 and he is also 1-2 vs. New York over his career with an ERA of 15.07.

50* Play Philadelphia (-200) over Colorado

Philadelphia has won 11 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 7 and 7.5 runs and they have also won 10 of the last 13 games as a favorite of -200 or higher. Roy Halladay has won 6 consecutive games coming off a game where he did not walk a batter and he is 1-0 vs. Colorado over his career with an ERA of 1.17.

50* Play Texas (-190) over LA Angels

Los Angeles has lost 10 of the last 14 road games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and they have also lost 6 of the last 8 road games as an underdog of +150 to +200. Joe Saunders has lost 4 of the last 5 games as an underdog of +150 or higher and he is 3-6 vs. Texas over his career with an ERA of 7.19.

100* Play British Columbia (-2) over Toronto

Toronto has lost 15 of the last 17 non-conference games and they have also lost 10 of the last 11 games as a home underdog. Toronto has lost 11 of the last 12 games after covering the spread in their last game and they have also lost 4 consecutive games vs. British Columbia.

Beatyoubookie

Play Cincinnati (-160) over Houston (POD)

Houston is 3-14 as a home underdog of +125 or higher this season
Bud Norris is 1-6 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season
Bud Norris is 0-4 in home games this season with an ERA of 7.36

Tim Trushel

Oakland Under

Seattle Under

Ben Burns

9* EDMONTON PK

I've successfully played against the Blue Bombers in back to back games. I think this will be another good spot to do so. The Bombers earned an impressive victory in their opening game. That instantly raised expectations for the season. However, the fact is that the Bombers weren't that good last season and that they made numerous changes during the offseason. Naturally, the Bombers will be anxious to get back on track. The Eskimos should also be extremely motivated though. That's because they check in with a 0-3 record. They could easily have a 2-1 record though. They lost their first game, vs. BC. Their next two games both came against last year's Grey Cup Finalists, Montreal and Saskatchewan. In both cases, the Eskimos let a lead slip away in the fourth quarter. Still, they've been right there against a pair of this year's elite teams. That's a lot tougher schedule that Winnipeg has had to contend with. The Bombers split vs. Hamilton and lost, at home, vs. the Argos - a team which practically never wins on the road. While Edmonton has been "right there" in each game, the Bombers got crushed in last week's game, which was their first road game of the season. They were outgained by a 435 to 290 margin, in terms of total yards. They managed only 16 first downs, while allowing 33. Additionally, they possessed the ball for just 23 minutes to Hamliton's 37. Speaking of Winnipeg, note that the Bombers are expected to be without starting QB Buck Pierce. Pierce was knocked out of the last game which means Steven Jyles will likely get the nod. Jyles was solid in relief last week. However, that was when the game was pretty much out of hand. I believe that Pierce currently provides them with a better chance to win and I expect him to be missed here. The Eskimos are 7-4-1 the last 12 meetings in the series. Desperate to earn a victory and catching the Bombers without Pierce, I expect the Eskimos to improve on those stats by scoring the minor upset here.

10* CALGARY -3

I successfully played against both of these teams last week. Both were favored. Saskatchewan won but didn't cover. Calgary lost outright, at Toronto. The Stampeders were on the wrong side of a fourth quarter comeback. The Riders were on the right side of one. Those results have worked in our favor here. For starters, they've kept the Riders as the league's lone undefeated team. That's forced the oddsmakers to give us a little better line on Calgary than we normally would have gotten. Additionally, those results should have the Stampeders highly motivated to bounce back with a victory. Of course, the Stampeders' real motivation comes from the fact that the Riders knocked them out of the playoffs last season. The Stamps were the defending Grey Cup champs and the Riders took that away from them. Note that Calgary had a 381-338 edge in total yards in that game, which was at Saskatchewan. Last week, when playing against the Stampeders, I noted that they were playing on a very short week and with less rest than their opponent. This week, the Stamps are the team which is playing with more rest. As a result of last week's game occurring on a Wednesday, the Stamps now find themselves with 10 days between games. That extra preparation figures to have come at a good time. Not only were the Stamps off back to back nailbiters but this is a huge 'revenge' game vs. an undefeated team. While this is arguably the biggest game on Calgary's entire regular season schedule, the Riders have already played theirs - their Week 1 Grey Cup rematch vs. Montreal. Obviously, they want to keep their undefeated record in tact. That said, they may not be quite as 'hungry' as the Stamps. Already 1-0 SU/ATS here this season, the Stamps are now 14-2-1 SU and 11-6 ATS their last 17 games here. While they were 0-1-1 against the Riders here last season (scores were 24-23 and 44-44) the Stamps are still 11-7-1 the last 19 series meetings here. Playing at home and loaded with motivation, I expect the Stamps to hand the Riders their first loss.

Scott Rickenbach

10* Cleveland / Tampa Bay Over

There are a number of keys to this play and they don’t all have to happen to justify this selection but two important players are expected back on the field tonight – one for each of these teams. Shin-Soo Choo for the Indians is expected to be back in the lineup tonight while Carl Crawford of the Rays could also be back tonight. Those two key sticks would help to further boost what we already feel is a very strong situation. The Indians have averaged 10 hits per game their last 10 games. The Rays have gone 5-3 in their last eight games and have averaged 6.5 runs and 10 hits per game during this solid stretch. Tampa Bay’s lineup should enjoy plenty of success against Fausto Carmona of the Indians. Carmona is 3-1 in his career against the Rays but note the 5.52 ERA. Also, the Cleveland right-hander has averaged four walks per game in his last four starts. Carmona has given up 19 earned runs in his last 37 innings of work and that equates to a 4.62 ERA. Also, he’s 17-11 with a 3.82 ERA in day games in his career but note Carmona’s 25-33 mark with a 4.84 ERA in night games in his career! The Rays have been very hot at the plate and we don’t see him slowing them down.

Tampa Bay’s starting pitcher tonight is Jeff Niemann. The Rays right-hander certainly has impressive numbers on the season. However, Niemann’s 5-0 record on the road masks the fact that he’s been quite hittable in recent road outings. In his four road starts since June 1st, Niemann has given up 14 earned runs in 25.1 innings of work. That’s the equivalent of a 4.97 ERA and we like our chances with an Indians lineup that has helped lead Cleveland to a recent resurgence. The Tribe certainly won’t lack for confidence at home as they have beaten the Rays 17 straight times in Cleveland! Niemann is winless in three career starts against the Indians and they’ve pounded him at an amazing .350 clip! In his career, Niemann’s ERA is more than a full run higher on the road compared to at home. The Indians are 9-5 to the over in Friday games this season. They are 31-20 to the over when off of a loss and 13-9 to the over this season when they are at home and the total is 8 or 8.5 runs. Over the last three seasons, when playing after a day off, the Indians are a solid 29-20 to the over. The Rays are 11-6 to the over this month and they are 27-19 to the over in road games this season. Over the last three seasons, Tampa Bay is 23-17 to the over after a day off. In Niemann’s nine road starts this season, the Rays have recorded just one under! As for the Indians, they are 4-2 to the over in Carmona’s six starts against AL East opponents this season. Play OVER the total in Cleveland as a *10* Top Play selection.

8* Baltimore vs Minnesota Over

Brian Duensing gets the start for the Twins because Nick Blackburn has been so ineffective. Even though Duensing sports a very impressive 1.67 ERA this season, note that he’s making his first start of the season. He’s been used exclusively out of the bullpen and he’s expected to be on a pitch count of between 60 and 80 pitches tonight. In his career, Duensing’s ERA on the road is more than full run higher than what he’s compiled at home. His ERA in night games is more than two full runs higher that he’s compiled in day games in his career. Duensing has been used in mostly short relief this season. That is notable because, in the only outings where he’s pitched more than two innings, Duensing has given up 14 hits in 12.2 innings of work. We expect the shift back to the starters role to be a tough one for him.

The Orioles ended up getting handcuffed by Carl Pavano yesterday but, previously, Baltimore had averaged 10 hits per game in their last 10 games. We look for the O’s offense to bounce right back here. The Orioles are 10-3 to the over this season when installed as a home dog of +100 to +125. Also, the Twins are 9-5 to the over in Friday games this season and 41-25 to the over in Friday games over the last three seasons. Even with staying under the total in their last three games, the Twins are 13-6-2 to the over in their last 21 games. Minnesota’s lineup should have no problem with the offerings of Jeremy Guthrie in this one. The Orioles right-hander is coming off of a rare, strong start against the Blue Jays. Simply put, we’re not going to put too much weight into one start. This is especially true when you consider that Guthrie had previously given up at least four earned runs in six of his last eight starts. Guthrie also had been struggling with control as he had previously walked 16 batters (against just 11 strikeouts) in his five prior starts. In his five career games against the Twins, Guthrie has compiled a solid 3.16 ERA but note his .282 BAA. Also, lefties are hitting .292 against the right-hander this season and Minnesota will have their lineup loaded up with left-handed bats tonight. Also, in his career, Guthrie’s ERA is nearly a full run higher in night games compared to day games. Play OVER the total in Baltimore as an *8* Regular Play selection.

JR O'Donnell

2* Oakland A's

Play the A's - 148 tonight as the Oakland A's are throwing Cahill who is a powerful 9-3 and less than 4 ERA and the A's are starting to hit! The A's will pound Buehrle who is 0-6 with a 5 ERA in 10 battles there and the Chi Sox who have gone cold, The 48-47 A's are the sharp side tonight as the Rz express is all over the A' s @ home. The lines makers are giving respect for the A's and Cahill tonight. The Chi Sox have closer problems and the Power ratings have the A's at a 2+ run winner tonight 6-1 the last 7...#7 goes to the A's

Marc Lawrence

Oakland A's

The A's and White Sox square off at the Coliseum in Oakland in the first of a three game series Friday night when All-Star Trevor Cahill takes the mound against Mark Buehrle. Cahill enters in terrific current form, especially at home when he's cashed in nine of his last 11 team starts. He's also 3-1 at home during July in his career starts With the Pale Hose just 4-16 in Buehrle's last 20 starts against the A's, including 1-9 in 10 career team starts in this park, look for Cahill to improve to 2-0 in his career against the White Sox here tonight. We recommend a 3* play on Oakland.

Larry Ness

10* Pitching Mismatch of the Month - Oakland A's

The White Sox won 25 of 30 games heading into the break and the team's July 11 win gave them a half-game lead in the AL Central, for the first time all season. The White Sox remain in first place as of this morning (two games up on both the Tigers and Twins), although the team has gone just 3-4 since the break. Chicago lost three of four at Minnesota before taking two of three at Seattle, and now concludes its 10-game road trip with three games in Oakland. The A's will likely not catch the Rangers (trail by 7 1/2 games) in the AL West but they won their final two games before the break (over the Angels) and have won five of six since, giving them SEVEN wins in their last eight games (have outscored opponents 52-25). The White Sox have won two of three games in Oakland in each of the last two seasons but for most of the decade have struggled when visiting the Bay Area. Chicago lost 27 of 33 road games against the A’s from 2001-2007! Making matters worse is that Mark Buehrle, who has pitched well during Chicago's recent "rebirth" (he's 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA in his last seven starts, evening his record at 8-8 on the year), has been just AWFUL in his career vs the A's. He is a WOEFUL 3-12 with a 4.11 ERA in 20 career starts against the A’s, with the White Sox going 4-16 (an 80% "go-against!"). That includes an 0-6 record here in Oakland with a 4.95 ERA in 10 career starts! Trevor Cahill went 10-13 with 4.63 ERA as a rookie but opened the 2010 season on the DL. He was sent to the minors in mid-April from some rehab work and was called up on April 30 to make his first start. He's gone 9-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 16 starts (team is 12-4) and was a member of the AL All Star team this year. When he gets his 10th win (I'm counting on that happening right here!), he'll join Tim Hudson as the only A’s to earn at least 10 victories in each of their first two seasons (pretty good company). While the team is 7-2 in his road starts and a more modest 5-2 in his home starts, note that his road ERA is 4.07, compared to a home ERA of 2.14! Buehrle's 'nightmare in Oakland' continues!

Ben Burns

10* Chicago / Oakland Under 7.5

These teams have seen the UNDER go 13-6-1 the last 20 times that they have faced each other. This figures to be another well-pitched affair.

Cahill is having a very strong season. He checks in at 9-3 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He's been particularly dominant here at Oakland. Indeed, he's 5-1 with a 2.14 ERA in seven starts here. Opposing hitters are batting only .206 against him overall and just .200 here at home. In his last home start, Cahill limited the Angels to a single unearned run through seven innings, earning a 5-2 victory.

Buehrle's season stats are still fairly mediocre. He's 8-8 with a 4.18 ERA on the season. However, he's been much better than that lately.

Indeed, he's 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA in his last seven starts and 3-2 with a 2.80 ERA in his last five on the road.

For the season, Buehrle has seen the UNDER go 7-3 on the road. Meanwhile, Cahill has seen the UNDER go 6-0-1 at home.

Both starting pitchers are supported by solid bullpens. Chicago relievers have a combined 3.04 ERA on the road. Oakland relievers have a combined 2.79 ERA (1.129 WHIP) at home.

The White Sox have seen the UNDER go 36-18-1 the last 55 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range, including 9-2 their last 11 in that role. Meanwhile, the A's have seen the UNDER go 30-19-4 the past few seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range.

The A's typically don't score all that many runs vs. southpaws. They're averaging only 4.1 runs per game vs. left-handed starters, down slightly from their overall average. They've seen the UNDER go 15-9-1 their last 25 against southpaw starters and 73-49-6 the past few seasons. Given Cahill's commanding stats here, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair.

MTi Sports

Blue Jays at Tigers
Pick: Tigers +101

In the series opener yesterday, The Blue Jays took a 2-0 lead in the top of the second. Detroit scored one in the bottom of the fourth and then tied it with a lone run in the bottom of the fifth. It remained tied at two until the bottom of the eighth when the Tigers plated three to win 5-2.

This result activates two strong team trends. The Blue Jays are a defeatist 0-9 as a dog when they are seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they held the lead. The Tigers are a perfect 12-0 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit. All the games that make up these two trends are from THIS season.

In addition, the Blue Jays are 0-8 on the road when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings and 0-9 (-3.9 rpg) as a road dog vs a team on at least a two game winning streak, as long as their opponent has a record below 590. Conversely, Detroit is a reliable 12-1 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series.

In Porcello’s last start, he went eight innings, allowed a single run on six hits and did not walk a batter. The Tigers scored first, but the Indians tied it at one and won it 2-1 in extra innings. Detroit is 7-0 with Porcello at home when he went at least four innings and they lost his last start. Every win was by multiple runs.

Finally, the Tigers are the most profitable team in the league when ‘picking-up” their starter when they did not support him well in his last start. Detroit is 31-10 when they scored fewer than three runs in their starter’s last start and lost, making 21.2 net units. The Giants are a distance second, with a record of 32-19 and a profit of 15.2 units. Marcum is in a very tough spot here. Lay the small price.

MTi’s FORECAST: DETROIT 5 Toronto 3