Glenn McGrew
NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE YEAR
New York/Los Angeles Under
Los Angeles Dodgers (51-45) opened their four-game weekend series with the New York Mets (49-47) by defeating the east coast visitors 2-0 on Thursday evening. Both teams are really struggling offensively right now, with the New Yorkers having scored just 21 runs total over their last dozen contests (1.75 rpg) and Los Angeles plating just 20 runners over their last 8 contests (2.5)! Not surprisingly, last year these two combined for just 16 runs in a three-games series at Dodger Stadium. Friday's contest will feature to very hot pitchers, Johan Santana (7-5, 2.87) for the hosts and Vincente Padilla (4-2, 3.65) for the visitors. Santana again pitched brilliantly to no avail this past Sunday in San Francisco, absorbing a no-decision after limiting the Giants to a single run in eight innings. Still, Santana is 2-0 with a 0.58 ERA over his past four starts. He threw six shutout innings against the Dodgers in April and stands an eye-opening 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA in three career starts vs. the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Padilla hasn't allowed a run over his past two starts, a span of 14 innings, and he hasn't allowed more than two runs IN ANY START besides his first since coming off the disabled list in June. The 32-year old Nicaraguan has gone an impressive 4-1 over his last eight starts, posting a spectacular 2.38 ERA. Padilla has won 10 of 13 lifetime decisions over the New Yorkers, manufacturing a 3.54 ERA. When you add in the fact these two clubs have two of the National League's better bullpens to back up these two strong starters, it's easy to make a major play on the under. Play New York/Los Angeles UNDER
Roz Juarbe
Baseball Game of the Month
Minnesota Twins
Out is Nick Blackburn for the Twins and in is Brian Duensing, tonight's starter. Duensing makes his first start of the season though he is 3-1 this year with a 1.67 ERA. Duensing was 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA in nine starts last year. Good news for Duensing is that he faces a weak Baltimore team that has dropped six of its last seven. In addition, the O's have scored two runs or fewer in five of those games. And guess what, Minnesota has pitched a shutout in the last two games. And, against the Twins it's even worst for the O's, having scored a total of one run while losing all three games. Looks like trouble here on Friday for the Orioles, don't see them doing much at all. Take the Twins and enjoy the win.
Hollywood Sports
25* Nationals/Brewers Over
Washington (42-54) is heating up with their bats after scoring 22 runs over their last three games. They are hitting .275 against left-handers which should leave them chomping at the bit when traveling to Milwaukee to face the left-handed Narveson. For the year, Narveson is 8-6 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.54 ERA. Narveson is struggling over his last three starts as evidenced by his 9.42 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over that span. Narveson also does decidedly worse at home in Milwaukee this season where he has a 6.12 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .312 as opposed to his 5.58 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .280 opponent's batting average when on the road. The deeper sabermetrics are troubling as well for Narveson. Narveson is giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits as indicated by his high .201 ISO (ISOlated power, slugging pct minus batting avg). Furthermore, Narveson is allowing his opposing hitters to have a high line-drive BABIP (Batting Average for Balls put Into Play) of a high .813 as compared to the .723 National League LD BABIP average at the moment. Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the “hitter-versus-pitcher” battle. Batters are finding more than average success in placing their line-drives as base hits against Narveson which indicates hitters have been able to zero-in on him. The Brewers enter this game coming off a 3-2 win in Pittsburgh yesterday -- and Milwaukee (44-53) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total coming off a win.
Washington sends out Craig Stammen who is 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.48 WHIP for the season. Like Narveson, Stammen is struggling even worse as of late given his 7.36 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over his last three starts. Stammen is particularly vulnerable on the road where he has a 6.15 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and .205 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 4.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .293 opponent's batting average when at home this season. Stammen has also struggled in his two career starts against Milwaukee last season where he had a 6.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .311 opponent's batting average in eleven innings of work. And in the Brewers' last 31 games when facing a right-hander, the Over is 20-8-3. Stammen's deeper sabermetrics also spells trouble for him. He has a high .185 ISO which indicates that he is also giving up too many extra-base hits. Not surprisingly then, his LD BABIP of .770 (versus that NL LD BABIP average of .723) is evidence to the fact that hitters have been able to take advantage and place their base-hits against him. Additionally, Stammen has a low ground ball BABIP of .205 as compared to the Nationals' (52-43) overall GB BABIP team mark of .246 which suggests that he has actually experienced some good luck regarding the balls he is allowing into play being hit at his infielders. As this number regresses up towards Washington's team mean, he will be then surrendering even more base hits. Washington enters this game coming off a 7-1 win in Cincinnati -- and they have gone Over the Total in 5 straight games with Stammen on the mound after they scored at least five runs in their previous game. Additionally, in their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their previous game, the Nats have continued that momentum by going Over the Total 6 times. Together, these team trends produce our specific 35-11-3 combined winning angle for this situation. 25* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals and the Milwaukee Brewers listing both pitchers Craig Stammen and Chris Narveson.
Anthony Redd
75 Dime Cleveland Indians
The Duke's Sports
San Diego (-115) for 2 Units
The Padres have had incredible success at Pittsburgh (20-9) and we won't fade them here. SD is 8-0 after their opponent scores 2 runs or less in previous game, and they're 11-3 after allowing 5+ runs in their previous game; moreover, SD controls a 24-9 mark after previously scoring 2 runs or less. We won't get late innings out of Kevin Correia, but he should have a respectable start and allow the solid SD bullpen to finish; after all, Correia sports a decent 3.31 ERA vs Pittsburgh. Furthermore, SD sports a 6-2 mark vs lefty starters and should get the best of Paul Maholm who has experienced several stages of inconsistency. And after back-to-back solid efforts for him, he is due to succumb here. The Pirates are 3-12 in Maholm's last 15 following a quality start. We'll look for SD to get the best of him here.
BOB VALENTINO
40 DIME Texas Rangers -1.5
Executive
250% SF Giants
Kevin Francis
Texas -187
Dwayne Bryant
Cincinnati -145
Just a major pitching mismatch here. Travis Wood is the real deal. The lefty has made three Quality Starts out of four, and he has been very good in his three road starts (2.18 ERA, 0.68 WHIP). The only bad start Wood has made was his second start. It came against the Mets in New York, and he allowed 5 runs (3 earned) in just 4.2 innings. I don't think it's a coincidence that that's the same start in which the Reds tried to start him on just three days rest. They haven't done it since.
Now Houston has to face Wood for the first time, which gives the young southpaw a very nice edge early in this contest. Houston has struggled to hit lefties lately, batting just .185 and scoring a pathetic 1.3 runs per game against southpaws over their last 10 games. Speaking of their last 10 games, Houston's pen owns a whopping 8.04 ERA, 2.17 WHIP, and .370 BAA during that span. Yikes!
Speaking of "Yikes," Bud Norris has been a complete train wreck for Houston. Norris owns a 6.09 ERA & 1.65 WHIP in his 13 starts, and that balloons to a 7.36 ERA & 1.70 WHIP at home. Norris has actually pitched well in day games, sporting a 3.64 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 5 starts under the sun. Unfortunately for Norris & the 'Stros, this game is a night game. And in Norris' 8 starts under the lights, he owns a 7.98 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. The Reds faced Norris in Houston back on 4/27 and tagged him for 5 earned runs on 6 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings. I don't see why things would be any better tonight.
Bottom line: We simply have a major pitching edge no matter how you slice it. I mentioned just how much the Houston pen has struggled lately, but the Reds' pen owns a 3.99 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and .199 BAA in their last 10 games. The Reds are 17-5 in their last 22 games against Houston, including 7-1 in their last 8 at Minute Maid Park. I expect more of the same tonight.
Lenny Del Genio
NY Mets / LA Dodgers Under 7
Great pitching matchup tonight in LA with Santana squaring off against Padilla. Both pitchers have been lights out in their last three starts; Santana with a 0.37 ERA and Padilla an 0.87 ERA. On the road this season Santana has received no support from the Mets hitters as despite a 2.93 road ERA he’s posted a 3-7 record. But, in those eight road starts the Mets have gone under the number in six of the eight. If you look at Padilla, since coming back from injury, after that bad first start against the Red Sox he’s made five starts only five earned runs in 34 and 2/3 innings. Against these Dodgers Santana has made three starts and posted a 0.44 ERA. The Mets haven’t faced Padilla since the 2005 season, and if I was a Mets hitter don’t think I would like to be facing him now. Both of these teams are big time hitting slumps as the Mets are hitting .188 in their last seven games and LA is scoring only 2.7 runs in their last 7 games. On the situational front, the Mets are off a loss and Santana has a 15-4 under mark pitching when his team lost their last game. Low scoring game tonight in Dodger Stadium.
20* Tampa Bay Rays -145
The Indians have been playing very good baseball of late winning six straight before losing on Wednesday in Minnesota. Tonight they send Carmona to the hill who’s having a pretty good season with a 3.65 ERA in his 19 starts. However, it’s going to be a tough one tonight as he faces the Rays Niemann who has an awesome 15-4 team start record and 2.92 ERA. Most impressive is his 9-0 team start record on the road. These two teams just met down in Tampa a few weeks ago and the one Indiana win in the 3-game series was by Carmona when he pitched Cleveland to a 9-3 win. However, tonight the Rays get revenge. Neimann has pitched the Rays to two wins over Cleveland this season, both in Tampa, and we think he’ll make it three straight tonight. The Rays have been money in the bank this season as road favorites of $150 or less posting a 17-6 record. Also, Neiman loves pitching against bad power team like the Indians posting a 14-0 team start record against teams averaging .9 or less homers per game. Carmona is good, but Neimann is better. Rays beat the Indians tonight in Cleveland.
Andrew Lange
20* Phil Under 7.5
Jeff Benton
60 Dime MLB Total of the Year
Royals-Yankees OVER the total
I’ll be honest with you: I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Yankees put this game over the total all by themselves. After all, they scored 10 runs in each of their last two games against better starting pitchers than the one they’re facing tonight.
K.C. right-hander Brian Bannister has been a complete disaster lately, giving up 32 runs in his last seven starts covaring 36 1/3 innings (7.93 ERA). And that includes a 1-0 victory at Washington when he pitched six scoreless innings. Throw that performance out and Bannister’s ERA since June 12 soars to 9.50!
Now check out Bannister’s career numbers against the Yankees: four starts, 14 1/3 innings pitched, 24 runs allowed (six home runs), 30 hits, 12 walks and 8 strikeouts. He has a 15.07 ERA and a 2.93 WHIP against New York, and the Bronx Bombers are batting .448 against Bannister. Three of those four games hurdled the posted total with final scores of 11-5, 12-11 and 15-6.
The moral to this story: Bannister is god awful, and the Yankees (49 runs last seven games) are going to knock him all over the yard tonight.
The good news is the Yankees don’t exactly have Roy Halladay on the mound themeselves. A.J. Burnett is 7-8 with a 4.99 ERA, and since June 1 he’s 1-6 with an 8.15 ERA in eight starts, with four of the last five going OVER the total.
One final point to make about these two starting pitchers: Both Burnett (3-2, 3.48 ERA) and Bannister (4-1, 3.05 ERA) have thrived in day games in this year. But when the lights come on and they’re forred to pitch at night, Burnett is 4-6 with a 5.66 ERA and Bannister is 3-7 with a 7.45 ERA.
Throw in the fact that Bannister has yielded six home runs in his last three starts while Burnett has been taken deep 10 times in his last eight starts since June 1, and this one has slugfest written all over it. And FYI: the Yankees have topped the total in seven straight games overall and eight straight at Yankee Stadium, while the Royals are on “over” streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-0 against right-handed starters and 6-0-1 when the total is set high (from 9 to 10½ runs).