Sportsbook Breakers
4* Yankees
4* Rangers
Chris Jordan
600 Units Blue Jays -1.5
PHIL MAXWELL
KANSAS CITY -126
KELSO
50 Units Saint Louis Cardinals -1.5
15 Units San Diego Padres -135
10 Units Chicago Cubs +115
3 Units Cincinnati Reds -135
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units Tampa Bay Devil Rays -110
4 Units Chicago White Sox +100
4 Units Los Angeles Angels -115
OC DOOLEY
3* Brewers
2* Oakland
1* Phillies Over 8
DAVE COKIN
10* Solid Gold - Houston Astros
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Milwaukee at Houston
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) PARRA, M vs. (L) HAPP, J.A.
Play: Houston (ML +103)
J.A. Happ just went from a playoff contender to a team with no shot. But it's actually a great opportunity for the southpaw to firmly establish himself as a legitimate starting pitcher rather than a back end spot type, which was pretty much Happ's role with Philly. We frequently see pitchers switching teams excelling when they join their new squad and I think there's a good chance Happ can follow that route here. I certainly have no problem betting against Manny Parra. The Brewers lefty will have the occasional game where his command is on and he looks like keeper material. But more often than not, this is simply not the case and wagering against Parra in spots where the price is no factor is a money maker. The Astros have had a good week and I like their chances of opening this somewhat meaningless NL Central series on a winning note.
Scott Rickenbach
10* GOM Washington / Philadelphia Over
Of course the Phillies acquisition of Roy Oswalt from the Astros is making a lot of noise. However, don’t be surprised if he struggles in his first start in a Phillies uniform. The last time Oswalt faced the Nationals he gave up four earned runs on four hits and three walks in an outing that lasted just 2.1 innings! Also, Oswalt comes into this start having allowed 8 earned runs on 16 hits in his last 9 innings of work! Despite having solid overall numbers on the season, Oswalt has been roughed up in five of his last ten starts. We believe the fade is on for Oswalt right now and that it may take him some time to “settle in” with the Philles after getting hammered in each of his last two starts with the Astros. Note that Oswalt is facing a Nationals team that has scored an average of 4.7 runs per game in their last 9 games. Considering that we’re working with a low total here that 4.7 average is nothing to sneeze at!
The Phillies bats have also been hot. They’ve averaged 5.8 runs per game in their last 8 games and that has helped lead the way to an 8-game winning streak that Philadelphia carries into this match-up. We don’t expect the Phils to slow down either! The Phillies are averaging 11.3 hits per game during this hot streak and they should have no trouble with the offerings of Craig Stammen. The Nationals right-hander faced Philadelphia in each of his first two starts this season and the results were atrocious. Stammen walked away with a 15.63 ERA and a .485 BAA in his two starts versus the Phillies this season. Also, Stammen comes into this start having allowed four earned runs or more in 6 of his last 11 starts. In his last nine starts the Nats right-hander has given up 60 hits in 50.2 innings of work. He’s very hittable and he’s facing red-hot Phillies lineup tonight. The Phils are 10-7 to the over this season when they enter a game with a winning streak of three games or more in progress. Additionally, the Phillies are 14-10 to the over the last three seasons when they are a road favorite of -150 to -175.
As for the Nationals, when facing a team with a winning record they are 8-5 to the over in the 2nd half of this season. As you can see, the Nats have been doing a better job of scoring runs against good teams since we’ve got past the midway point of the season. However, the trouble for the Nats has been stopping the opposition from scoring runs too! Recently the Nationals have benefited from getting some good outings from their starting pitchers but, with Stammen on the mound tonight, we certainly don’t see that continuing. In Stammen’s last 9 starts, only 1 of them has stayed under the total! As for Oswalt, even though he was pitching for the offensively challenged Astros, six of his last ten starts have gone over the total. Now, with the powerful Phillies offense backing him, look for a bigger “over trend” to develop and that starts tonight! Play OVER the total in Washington as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Tampa Bay / New York Yankees Over
Since reaching the midway point of the season, the Yankees are 5-0 to the over when facing teams with a winning record on the season. Also, with yesterday’s over winner, the Yanks are now 32-16 to the over this season when the posted total on their game is 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, on the road with a money line of -100 to -125, the Yankees are 7-3 to the over this season. The Yanks are also 21-11 to the over against AL East opponents and a perfect 3-0 to the over in games played in domes this season! The Rays are 23-14 to the over against divisional opponents this season. Tampa Bay is also 27-16 to the over this season when facing a team with a winning record on the season. The Rays, when Wade Davis starts, have mostly been an “under team” but note that they are 4-2 to the over when Davis is on the mound and Tampa Bay is the underdog in the match-up. Additionally, the Yankees are an amazing 12-3 to the over in the last 15 starts that Phil Hughes has made.
The Yanks Hughes is 12-3 on the season and, of course, that is a very impressive record. However, the right-hander has allowed 32 earned runs on 58 hits in his last 47.2 innings of work. As you can see, Hughes is not only getting hit hard over his last 8 starts, he’s also compiled a 6.04 ERA during this nearly two month stretch of work! In other words, his impressive full season numbers are masking the fact that he really hasn’t been pitching all that well of late. In fact, Hughes has given up 11 homers in his last 7 starts spanning just 41.2 innings of work. That’s an average of a homer every 4 innings and he is likely to continue to get pounded here by a Rays team that has averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 22 games. As for the Yankees, their offense has also been red hot as they’ve averaged 6.3 runs per game in their last 22 games! In fact, the Yanks are on a 9-4-1 run to the over entering this game.
The Yankees certainly should have no trouble with the offerings of Davis. The Rays right-hander went on a 2-8 run from early May through the end of June. Even though July has seen the Rays win all four of his starts, he’s still given up 26 hits in his 25.2 innings of work. In other words, he’s been far from dominant and he’s now facing a Yankees team that has pounded him at a .317 clip in his career. In his career, Davis has an ERA in night games that is nearly a full run higher than what he’s produced in day games. With the way these two offenses have been producing of late AND the way they’ve produced in divisional games this season, we feel this total is posted below where it should be and we won’t hesitate to step in and take advantage. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as an *8* Regular Play selection.
NSA
20* Giants Under 7
20* Padres Under 7
20* Philly -170
JEFF BENTON
20 DIME DBacks-Mets OVER
10 DIME Braves-Reds UNDER
DBacks-Mets OVER
There’s a lot about this game that screams 7-5 final score. First and foramost, because of its horrific bullpen and an offense that relies heavily on the long ball, Arizona is the most prolific “over” team in baseball, with a 61-39-2 over/under record, including 29-18-2 on the road. Coming into this one, eight of the DBacks’ last 13 contests have topped the total, with seven of those games reaching double digits.
Meanwhile, the Mets are a compleetely different offensive ballclub at Citi Field, where they hit .270 as a team and average nearly 5 runs per game. New York came home this week and put up 19 runs in its three games against the Cardinals, this immediately after scoring just 23 runs during an 11-game road trip (including four shutouts).
Of course, whenever you play a baseball total you first look to the starting pitchers. In this one, Arizona’s Ian Kennedy matches up against Mike Pelfrey for the second time in 11 days. Back on July 19 in the desert, Kennedy was dominant, allowing a run on four hits in five innings. Pelfrey was the complete opposite of dominant, surrendering six runs on seven hits in just 1 1/3 innings. Final score: Arizona 13, New York 2.
Although Kennedy has a decent 4.10 ERA on the season, he’s just 2-5 with a 4.70 ERA in 10 road starts, and he averages less than six innings when he’s on the road (which leaves at least three and somrtimes four innings for the worst bullpen in baseball to come in and light the mound on fire). And over his last five starts, the right-hander has gone 5 1/3 , 5 2/3, 5 1/3, 5 and 6 2/3 innings. Over those 28 innings, Kennedy has surrendered 18 earned runs for a 5.79 ERA.
As for Pelfrey, he is coming off his best start in a month, holding the Dodgers to two runs on six hits in five innings. That’s the positive. Here’s the negative: Even including that outing, he’s got a 10.53 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 23 runs, 36 hits and 12 walks in 19 2/3 innings. And with that disastrous outing at Arizona on July 19, Pelfrey is now 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA in six career starts against the DBacks, with the “over” going 3-1-1 in the last five.
Finally, there have been 29 runs scored in the first three games of the Mets’ homestand, while Arizona has topped the total in four of six overall, five of six as a visitor, seven of eight in series openers and 12 of 17 on Friday.
Braves-Reds UNDER
Love these two starting pitchers in this one. Despite little fanfare, the Braves’ Kris Medlen has been outstanding this year, going 6-2 with a 3.57 ERA in 29 games (12 starts). In his dozen starts, he’s held nine opponents to three earned runs or fewer.
As good as Medlen has been, Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto has been even better. He’s 10-2 with a 3.18 ERA, and going back to June 18, Cueto has made seven starts and given up a total of six runs (five earned) in 46 2/3 innings (0.64 ERA). And while Medlen is facing the Reds for the first time ever, Cueto has dominated Atlanta twice in his career, giving up a total of three runs, seven this and three walks with 12 strikeouts in 13 innings (2.08 ERA).
Cincinnati won both games by scores of 6-2 and 4-2, both staying “under” the total. The Braves just stayed under the total in all three games of their series at Washington (scoring just six runs) and they're also on “under” streaks of 7-1-1 when opening a series, 10-4 against right-handed starters and 11-5 against winning teams, while the Reds are on “under” stretches of 4-1 against winning teams, 3-1-1 in series openers, 4-1 when Cueto pitches on Friday and 16-6-1 when Cueto is coming off five days of rest.
HOT SHOT SPORTS
3* KC Royals
STREET ROSENTHAL
*200 New York Mets -140
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Phily -164
1 Unit Detroit +220
1 Unit NY Yanks -107
The Duke's Sports
LA Angels (-120) for 2 Units
The Angels, 9 games behind TX in the AL West, are in dire need of winning this series to gain some ground. We'll look for Ervin Santana to deliver the goods again. He was sharp Saturday holding the Rangers to just 2 ER over 8 innings, and he sports an impressive 1.57 ERA over his last 3 starts. We'll look for his mates to give him the needed run support. The Angels lit up tonight's starter - Tommy Hunter- to the tune of 7 ER in 2 1/3 innings September 28th -- the last time he was in Anaheim. Los Angeles is 5-0 following a day off and 5-0 in Santana's last 5 at home vs a winning team. And Santana is a strong 31-15 vs the ALW. With TX just 2-5 at Anaheim, we'll grab the desperate Angels.
Marc Lawrence
NY Yankees -110
The Yankees open a huge three game series with the Rays this evening when Philip Hughes takes on Wade Davis at Tropicana Field in Tampa. Hughes takes the mound knowing he is 12-3 in his last 15 team stats, including 4-1 his last five away with five walks and 31 strikeouts. He's also 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his only career team start in this park. On the flip side, Davis has dropped five of his last seven home team starts and is 0-2 with a 5.73 ERA in his career team starts against the Pinstripes. With Tampa just 3-13 on Fridays, their worst day of the week this season, look for New York to improve to 14-7 in this series, including 8-4 on this field, here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play in the Yankees.