Gold Key Picks
TAMPA BAY PRICE -L -1.5 Runs, -110 Over Kansas City
Kikí Sports
2* Mets
RatedPicks
Det Tigers RunLine -1.5 +110 3units
Chi Cubs -120 3units
Col Rockies -140 5units
Tor Blue Jays +115 2units
LA Dodgers +150 2units
igz1 sports
3* Detroit RL -1.5 (+120) (Jackson)
3* Over 10 (-105) LA Angels (Santana) vs Minnesota (Blackburn)
Matt Rivers
100,000* MONSTER MONSTER LOCK Plus Bonus Lock
1. 100,000♦ Red Sox
2. 50,000♦ Brewers
1. I am not going to at all try and defend the recent play from Terry Francona's Red Sox, save the last few innings yesterday, because it has been beyond brutal. Boston has regressed terribly over the past few weeks and it is a total possibility that they may not even make the playoffs, even with that last comeback win over the A'sJohn Smoltz gets the ball for Boston and he has been anything but good of late. The future Hall of Famer has struggled immensely and is not the same guy that was with the Braves, I fully understand that. But Smoltz was very solid in that game about a month ago at Camden Yards before the rains came and he had his win stolen from him because of the unreal Oriole 10-1 comeback where the birds prevailed 11-10. If there is ever a case that the baseball Gods or Karma or whatever you want to call it will even things up then this is it. I'm not saying that I handicap on those feelings at all because that is a bit silly but let's be honest here, Smoltz still has enough in the tank to be alright and the Red Sox are still the far superior team today with the much better bullpen.Jeremy Guthie is alright. The righthander can be very good at times but he also can be pretty poor at times. In other words he is a feast or famine type hurler so you never fully know what is up with him. His last outing was bad in Fenway and I don't believe we will see a 180 today and watch Guthrie look anything above mediocre.Look for Pedroia, Bay, Lowell, Big Papi, Ellsbury and the Sox to flex their muscles and take care of business here at this bargain basement price. We really are looking at a steal of a price as Boston wins this game a lot more than the oddsmaker seems to believe.
2. The Padres did play a little better in that last series in Cincinnati but don't let that fool you one bit as they flat out do not hit at home in PETCO Park. Besides Adrian Gonzalez there is very little talent and to get Fielder, Braun and the far more talented Brewers at this cheap cheap price is way too good to pass up.Both Braden Looper and Chad Gaudin are decent enough Major Leaguers. Neither is great but when push comes to shove I'll take my chances on Looper. He has been better for sure as a starter then when he closed games for the Mets and is your typical six inning three run type of a guy which is definitely good enough with his high powered offense.Obviously PETCO is a total pitchers' ballpark and with the Padres horrible offense I fully believe that Looper is going to have a really really solid outing and in the end that will be more than enough for the far better Brewers to do their thing.San Diego is probably the worst team in all of baseball and to get the Brew Crew at this number, even away from Miller Park, is just fine with me!
Matt Rivers Record
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NY YANKEES -115 (with Mitre) over Chicago White Sox
OAKLAND -125 (with Braden) over Toronto
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LT Profits
-- Major League Baseball --
Detroit Tigers r969 -1.5 (115) / 2 units
MLB DETROIT TIGERS -1.5 +115
Arizona Diamondbacks r957
New York Mets r958 u9.0 (-125) / 2 units
MLB DIAMONDBACKS/METS UNDER 9 -125
Philadelphia Phillies r965 -1.5 (-110) / 2 units
MLB PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5 -110
MLB PLAY OF THE DAY
Bob Balfe
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Braves -105 over Dodgers
MTI Top 5 star play
5-Star LA Angels +140 over MINNESOTA - The Angels beat the Tribe 9-3 on Wednesday to get to 60-40 on the season. They are a significant dog here because Blackburn has great numbers at home and the Twins have won four straight. However, the Angels have scored at least six runs in nine of their last ten games and they are very tough to beat when they are putting up big numbers. The Angels have not lost this season on the road when they are off a 5+ run win, going a perfect 8-0.
The Angels are motivated by three things: when they facing a team on a winning streak, when they are a dog vs a team with a worse record and when they are a dog when they won the last time they faced their opponent's starting pitcher. All three are active here. The Halos are a best-in-league 32-14 vs a team that has won at least their last four games (o:streak>=4 and date>=20050501 and team) including 15-6 as a road DOG vs a team that has won at least their last three games. Also, LA is 9-4 since May as an underdog vs a team that has a worse record and a scintillating 15-3 as a DOG when they won the last time they faced their opponent's starting pitcher. Yikes!
Both these teams are off wire-to-wire wins. However, Minnesota is 0-6 as a favorite of more than 110 when they are off a win in which they never trailed and the Angels are 6-0 THIS season in the first game of a road series when they are off a win in which they never trailed, with two of the six wins as a dog.
Many squares will lay this big number citing the fact that Minnesota is 11-1 their last dozen when Nick Blackburn starts as a home favorite and Ervin Santana lasted only three and two-thirds in his last start, allowing six runs. However, this information does not give any line value because the linesmakers KNOW that Blackburn has been a good investment at home and they KNOW that Santana was bombed in his last start. Less well known is the fact that the Angels are a staggering 21-4 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start! They are 11-1 their last dozen in this situation and they have not lost in this spot this season. Finally, the Angels are a perfect 10-0 with Santana in the first game of a road series - including 3-0 this season. We give the Angels a significantly better than even chance at winning here and they are a BIG dog. We're playing LA on the adjusted run line (-1.5 runs at a big price).
MTi's FORECAST: LA ANGELS 8 Minnesota 3
MTi's FALSE FAVORITE (4.5-Star)
4-Star LA Dodgers +155 over ATLANTA - Both these teams won on the road in extra innings by scoring multiple runs in the top of the tenth. LA broke a four game losing streak yesterday with a 5-3 win over the Cardinals in ten innings and the Braves broke a 2-game losing streak with a 6-3 win in Florida in ten innings.The Dodgers outhit the Cards 12-6 and this is a positive indicator. LA is 11-2 as a ROAD DOG after a win in which they had at least a dozen hits, including 8-1 THIS season and 5-0 their last five. In the first game of a series, the Dodgers are 8-1 THIS season when they are off a win in which they allowed six or fewer hits, including 4-0 if it is the first game of a road series.The Dodgers put their game faces on when they are a dog vs a team with a worse record, going 14-8 as an underdog vs a team that has a worse record.The obvious reason why the Dodgers are such a huge dog here is the pitching match-up. In his last start, Schmidt allowed five runs in three innings and the Dodgers lost 8-6 to the Marlins. In his two starts, he has received plenty of run support and we expect the Dodgers' bats to support him better than expected here. LA is a perfect 5-0 THIS SEASON when their starter went less than four innings in his last start, out-scoring their opponent by an average of 4.8 runs per game.In Hanson's last start, the Braves were shut out 4-0 as a dog in Milwaukee. Atlanta, unlike the Dodgers, does poorly when their pitcher got little run support in his last start. The Braves are 5-15 since late April as a favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start.The Braves won Hansen's first five starts, but are 1-3 his last four. There is a good chance that this will be his first home loss, as LA is a solid 3-3 their last six as a 150+ dog.
MTi's FORECAST: LA Dodgers 4 ATLANTA 3
MTi's CHEAP CHALK (4.5-Star)
4-Star NY METS -110 over Arizona - The Mets lost 4-2 in the nightcap yesterday to break a five-game winning streak. They led 1-0 after five, but the Rockies tied it up in the sixth and went on to win 4-2. We expect that they'll get right back to their winning ways tonight. The Mets are 8-1 since late April in the first game of a series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead. Their only loss was by a single run against the Yankees and Chamberlain as a 185 dog. More specifically, NY is 6-0 THIS season in the first game of a home series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead, winning each of the last four by multiple runs.
Hernandez has produced wins in two straight starts, going seven innings in each and allowing 2 and 3 runs respectively. The Mets are a reliable 5-0 since May at home when they won the last two games their starter started.
Arizona is off a 4-0 shutout of the Phillies and they send Doug Davis to the hill to face the Mets. The Diamondbacks are a huge money-burner in this spot. The Snakes are 0-19 as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and their starter lasted more than six innings (team=Diamondbacks and D and po:BL=0 and p:SIP>6 and 20080524<=date) - including 0-10 THIS season.
In his last start, Doug Davis went six innings and allowed no runs in a 7-0 win over the Pirates. Well, Arizona is 0-5 THIS season when Doug Davis starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs.
The price is right.
MTi's FORECAST: NY METS 5 Arizona 2
The Duke's Sports
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Chicago Cubs (-125) 1.5 Units
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The Cubs are finally living up to pre-season hype as a prolific run producing team; as a matter of fact, since the All-Star break, Chicago is #1 in the league in runs produced. We'll look for the run surge to continue tonight vs Volstad, who actually has done well vs Chicago (2.84 ERA in 3 starts). However, Volstad has struggled at home where he is 2-6 with a 5.57 ERA. And the Marlins are 1-6 at home vs a team above .500 with Volstad as the starter. Furthermore, Volstad has not fared well on Friday (1-5). On the other hand, the Cubs' Harden has been solid on the road (2.03 ERA) and currently in great form overall (0.95 ERA last 3 starts). Harden is 4-0 as aN road favorite in this price range and he is 6-1 in game 1 of a series. The Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 in this series and play the favorite role well (14-3). Cubs the call.
Premier Cappers
Twins and Angels Over 10 runs for 4 units
I will say this every time when we bet an over is that we need two struggling pitchers in a good spot to do it and I feel that we have that today in Minnesota. The starting pitching in this game is Santana (3-6 7.29 ERA) vs. Blackburn (8-5 3.82 ERA). Both pitchers just faced their opposing team last week in LA. Santana and Blackburn gave up 6 runs in 3.2 innings pitched. In Blackburn’s last 3 starts he has given up 17 runs in 15.2 innings pitched. Santana has been worse only having 2 quality starts in his last 9 games and giving up 5 ER or more in 7 outings. The Angels are 11-0 to the Over in their last 11 games against the AL Central and they are on a 23-6-1 run to the Over against a right handed starters. The Over is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 starts against right handed starters. With two struggling starters on the hill and with the Angels scoring runs at over 7 runs a game their last 10 games themselves I see a big advantage to the Over today.
Halfbets
6* Cardinals RL +120
Seabass:
30* NYM over
30* LAD
50* CHW
50* BOS
100* PITT
100* "steam" -COL