Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday July 3,2009

Beatyourbookie
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100* Yankees

Dominic Fazzini
Friday's play 20 Dime -- Mariners (Hernandez) at RED SOX (Wakefield) under
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NOTE: List only Hernandez and Wakefield as starting pitchers
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Seattle’s Felix Hernandez (8-3, 2.54 ERA)
is probably the hottest pitcher going these days.
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The 23-year-old right-hander has allowed just five runs in his last 53 innings, and allowed one unearned run and four hits in eight innings Saturday in a 5-1 win over the Dodgers, striking out nine.Hernandez has given up two earned runs or less in each of his last seven starts, going 4-0 with a 0.85 ERA.His mound counterpart today, Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (10-3, 4.18) has been pretty impressive himself. The 42-year-old right-hander pitched six scoreless innings Saturday against Atlanta, and went 4-0 with a 3.45 ERA in five June starts.Wakefield hasn’t faced Seattle yet this year, but was 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in two starts last season.Hernandez also has had great success against Boston, going 3-1 with a 3.05 ERA in six career starts, and he has tossed 15 shutout innings in two career starts at Fenway Park, including a one-hitter in 2007.What does all this mean? It means there’s probably not going to be a whole lot of runs scored today. There’s only one way to go on this game.
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Take the under

IndianCowboy
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Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians - Friday July 3, 2009 7:05 pm
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Pick: 4 units (Play of the Day) TOTAL: Under 9 (-110)
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4 Unit Play. Take the Under 9 between the Oakland A's @ Cleveland Indians (Friday @ 7:05pm est). This is a good spot for us to take an Under as the A's take on the Indians on the highway. For starters, Cahill, the California native comes off one of his worst starts of his young career (born in '88), as he gave up 7 runs to the Rockies at home as the A's fell short 9-11. Prior to that, this young man did not have a non-quality start in 8 of 9 starts and had his era go up to 4.23 after the Rockies start. I look for Cahill to bounce-back strong on the road as he has done in previous contests on the highway including giving up 0 runs in 5 innings at LA winning as a +149 dog. Huff came off pitching 8 scoreless innings at Pittsburgh where he did not yield a quality run, and he had a let down coming off that start as he gave up 6 runs at home to the Reds as the Indians ended up losing that game 1-8. I look for both of these pitchers to have a quality bounce-back today as the A's are 4-0 to the Under in their last 4 contests as Underdogs and the Under is 6-1 for the Indians in thier last 7 home games.
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Betting as a Business
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Toronto / NY Yankees Over 9.5 1 Unit

Craig Davis Friday's Lineup
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20 Dime ---- MARLINS
10 Dime ---- TIGERS
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FLORIDA
Much like my third straight 25-dime winner on St. Louis last night, I'm not enthralled by this pitching matchup tonight for either side, but I can't help but ignore how well the Marlins have been playing lately, especially at home, and the fact the Marlins are getting better starting pitching, better bullpen work, and timely hitting. This team has all of a sudden become a contender, again, in the National League East and are locked in a virtual tie with the Phillies on top of the division.First things first. The Marlins have won eight straight games at home and 13 of their last 16 as the listed favorite while the Pirates have dropped 8 of their last 11 as an underdog. The Pirates are also atrocious away from PNC Park, dropping 26 of their 40 games on the road. Let's also not forget their 1-4 in their last five road games and 0-4 in their last four vs. a right-handed starter. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 12-2 in their last 14 as a home favorite and 8-2 in Volstad's last 10 starts when facing an opponent that allowed five or more runs in its previous game.Chris Volstad has really settled down since his start in Boston (8 ER in 3.2 IP), tossing 12 innings of 10-hit ball, allowing five earned runs and nine strikeouts. Let's keep in mind, he's still a bit on the young side and he's clearly still working through some mechanical issues, but you can't argue with some of his recent starts. You also can't argue with his career 2.38 ERA in the month of July or the fact that batters are hitting just .228 against him in this month.Charlie Morton counters tonight for the Pirates, and brings a respectable 4.09 ERA to the hill. What you probably don't know is that he's started against the Marlins three times already in his career, and his record is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, including a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Morton has started only three games this year, but those games were anywhere between 8 and 10 days from one another. That tells me they are only using him when someone gets hurt and the rotation gets out of whack. I may have never pitched in the Major Leagues, but I do know these starters need a little consistency and he's not getting it. June 10th, June 20th and June 28th... those are the dates of his starts this year. Is his arm really ready to start again this soon? We'll see... but I don't think he's going to go any further than the 5th inning tonight... and by that time the game should already be over.
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DETROIT
I'm going to back the Tigers in this spot tonight despite the fact the Twins do play better at home and the Tigers aren't very good on the road. We're getting a really good price and every so often it's worth it to take a shot on a road dog if the matchup seems right. Look, I understand all the trends are stacked against us tonight... the Tigers are 3-8 in their last 11 road games and 2-9 in their last 11 on field turf while the Twins are 58-27 in their last 85 home games, but one of the main reasons I like the Tigers tonight is the fact they are throwing a lefty the Twins have never seen before.Lucas French has thrown just 3 innings all season, but the lefty hasn't allowed an earned run in those two outings and facing an aggressive Minnesota offense could be exactly what he needs to get ahead in the count early. Kevin Slowey toes the rubber for the Twins tonight, having been shelled in his last outing vs. St. Louis. Slowey lasted just 3 innings, allowing six hits and five earned runs in a 5-3 loss. The bullpen did their job after the third inning, but it was already too late. On paper, it definitely looks like I'm on the wrong side of this contest, but in the end you'll see the Twins have no answer for French and the Detroit Tigers.
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Ron Raymond
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British Columbia Lions / Saskatchewan Roughriders Under 51.5

JACK JONES
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15* Blue Jays/Yankees UNDER 9.5
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Take the under in today's early game between the Yankees and Blue Jays. These are two pretty potent offenses, playing in a stadium that has already become notorious for being easy to hit in, but I like these two starters to keep the runs to a minimum. Yankees' starter A.J. Burnett has finally transformed into the pitcher they thought they would get, going 2-1 with a 0.44 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in his last three starts. Toronto's starter, Brian Tallet, doesn't have great numbers on the who this year, but he does have a 3.54 ERA on the road this season and a 2.65 ERA over his last three starts.

ColeLandon

ATL -130
OAK +120

2-0

Larry Ness
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20* club-80
Twins
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Stu Feiner
Trifecta
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Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #1
METS +140 FOR A 25 DIME WINNER
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Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #2
ROCKIES -125 FOR A 25 DIME WINNER
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Stu's 100 Dime Baseball #3
RED SOX -120 FOR A 25 DIME WINNER
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Jake Timlin
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400♦ Atlanta Braves
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Go with the Braves tonight as they make it 5 straight wins.
Fresh off sweeping the Phillies the Braves find them self’s right back in thick of things in the NL East. Well look for the Braves surge to continue over the next three days as they take advantage of playing the worst team in all of baseball in Washington who has lost 8 of their last 10 games. Continuing their losing ways the Nationals will throw Ross Detwiler is still winless on the year at 0-4 with a 5.24 ERA as Washington is an awful 1-7 overall when the lefty starts. Kawakami will counter for the Braves rested after 8 days off as the righty continue his strong pitching that has lead to a 3.13 ERA over his last ten starts and an even lower ERA of 2.57 over his last three starts. All Atlanta as they open up the weekend series a huge winner.
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Lou Panelli
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20* MLB Tampa Bay -140(100 Dime VEGAS KEY INFO)
10* MLB Dodgers -140
10* MLB Mets over 9.5
10* MLB Florida over 8.5
10* MLB Arizona over 9.5
10* MLB Oakland over 9
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Scott Spreitzer
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6-0 L6
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25* Blockbuster Blowout
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St Louis Cardinals

VIC MONTE
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500* SYNDICATE - FLORIDA MARLINS -150