Dave Malinsky
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4* KC Under
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4* Florida Over
PrimeTime Sports Advisors
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Dodgers -135
C-Star Sports
1000 Units Top Play - Florida over Pittsburgh
John Ryan
10* play - PHILLIES w/ LOPEZ
Betting as a Business
Seattle - Boston: 3 Plays Total Risk 2 Units
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Seattle +118 / Boston 1 Unit
Seattle / Boston Over 8.5 0.5/Unit
Parlay: Seattle +118 & Over 8.5 Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.14 Units
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We're going to show you the right time to play "franchise" pitchers. Last night we were on Seattle over the Yanks on the road in Yankee Stadium going against CC Sabathia citing the huge overlay demanded by books to back NY with their newest pitching sensation and we went on to explain how we were fully ready to lose our 1 unit of risk but the price, the way we laid it out, was too good to pass up. We wound up making 3.47 units on our 1 unit. Tonight we'll stay on the Mariners but in a much different role. Seattle starts their ace Felix Hernandez AND HE'S A DOG! OK, the Sox are sending Tim Wakefield to the hill but so what? Wakefield has been known to get hammered from time to time
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Let's look at the difference in team contribution between CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez. As we told you yesterday, the Yankees are 8-8 in CC's 16 starts and with a 1 unit risk on each of his starts, a bettor is down 3.98 units (-25%/volume), but in the case of Felix, the M's are 11-5 in his starts and a 1 unit risk on each yielded a PROFIT of 4.76 units (+29.75% on monies put into action)... BIG difference!
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We're on this game for a couple of reasons. First, as stated, Wakefield has had some very shaky outings this season but has managed to duck and dodge and come away with a very good record for his numbers. he's 10-3 with a 1.36 WHIP and a 4.18 ERA... too much of being in the right place at the right time and we all know that's not something you want to have to depend on. So with Wakefield coming off of a 6 inning start giving up just 3 hits and 1 walk, we feel tonight is his time to get hit and hit hard. Although Hernandez has pitched close to perfect ball this past month, he's also thrown alot of pitches (115 avg last 3 starts), so we can't see him going past the 6th or 7th tonight.
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So we're at risk here for a total of 2 units with a plus side of 2.72 units. A Seattle win guarantees us a profit here but we need the ! over to really get paid. We can also cut our exposure to 1.1 units with the Seattle scoring 4 runs because then the only way for Seattle to get beat is with the game going over.
Tampa Bay -140 / Texas 1 Unit
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We're picking back up with the Rays tonight. We were on them a couple of times this week against the Blue Jays citing that this is a team in a groove winning 9 of their last 11. The gap in the AL east is tightening as Tampa is just 5 games out of 1st behind the Yanks and Boston.
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Kansas City -145 / Chicago WS 1 Unit
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Arizona / Colorado Under 9.5 1 Unit
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LA Dodgers -135 / San Diego 1 Unit
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Houston / San Francisco Over 8.5 1 Unit
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Parlay: LA Dodgers -135 & Over 7 Runs Risk 0.5/Unit to win 1.04 Units
We Cover Spreads
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Mariners+110
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Tonight we get the hottest pitcher in the Bigs with an underdog price. Felix Hernandez has allowed 2 or less runs in his last seven starts. He has a 8-3 record with a 107/32 strikeout/walk ratio on the season. He has been flawless on the road with a 5-1 record and a 1.72 ERA on the highway. Hernandez is 1-1 at Fenway in his career allowing just five earned runs in his two starts there but this season he is simply on a whole other level than he ever was in the past. Right now the young hurlers' confidence and play is soaring through the roof and his value is unimaginable as a pup tonight.
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The Red Sox are 1-7 in Wakefields last eight starts vs. the Mariners. He has amazing stats all season and in his last three starts he has been rock solid. If you look deeper into it two of those last three starts were against Atlanta and one against a Florida team who struggles against off-speed stuff. We're not sold on Wakefield out-pitching Hernandez tonight. Especially the fact Hernandez can pitch a complete game or at least give you a guaranteed seven or eight innings; veteran Wakefield rarely makes it past six innings of work. It's hard to pass up on a pitcher like Hernandez who has given up just five earned runs in his last seven starts. We'll back the Mariners to carry momentum from last nights big win over the Yankees and ride the arm of their young ace this evening.
Bob Donahue
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White Sox at Royals
Pick: White Sox +132
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Will continue to ride the white hot Chicago White Sox, and tonight we get them at a nice price against Greinke. Yes, Greinke has been rock solid this year, but there appear to be chinks in his armor, and we will back Danks for Chicago to hold the bats of Kansas City at bay enough for Chicago to eek out a win.
Steve Janus
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3* on Dodgers/Rockies OVER 7.5
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This total is set low because neither team has been playing that well offensively, but the starters in this match up make me like the over. San Diego starter, Chad Gaudin has a 5.11 ERA in 12 starts this season, including a 4.76 ERA at the usually-pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Dodgers starter, Hiroki Kuroda, has been solid on the road in 3 starts this season, but has a 4.71 ERA over his last 3 starts. I expect the Dodgers to bounce back on offense with an emotional boost from getting Manny Ramirez back in the lineup and I look at Kuroda to give up a handful of runs to the Padres. Take the over a 7.5 or better if you can get it.
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3* on Tampa Bay Rays -135
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Rays starter, Scott Kazimir has really struggled this season, but somehow Tampa Bay is still 6-4 over his 10 starts. That's a credit to both the Rays' offense and their relief pitching, each of which have been amongst the best in the league. The Ray's are hitting nearly .280 and scoring just under 6 runs per game against right-handed starters this season, and their bullpen has posted a collective ERA of 3.33 with a record of 13-8. Kazmir just needs to put together a solid outing like he did in his last appearance against the Marlins, going 5 innings and giving up just 2 runs on 4 hits. If he can do that, the rest of the Rays will finish off the Rangers.
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3* on Kansas City Royals -145
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I'm looking to Zack Greinke to stop Chicago's six-game winning streak tonight. Greinke has been amazing the season, going 10-3 with a 1.95 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 16 starts. He is currently 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA in 9 home starts, and though his numbers have elevated some in his last three starts, he is still 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The White Sox will have trouble finding runs against the Royals tonight.
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5* Blue Chip Bet on St. Louis Cardinals -112
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Take the Cards over the Reds tonight. Cincinnati starter, Homer Bailey, has long been touted as one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball, however, each time he gets a call up from the Minors, he gets shelled. Bailey has two starts this season, and though he is 1-0, his ERA in those starts is 8.68 and his WHIP is 2.04. Meanwhile, Joel Pineiro has been a model of consistency for the Cardinals. His 6-9 record is very misleading, because Pineiro has just a 3.44 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 15 starts this season. In his last three starts, he's managed a 1.59 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP. I'll take the Cards against the struggling Bailey tonight.
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3* on Cardinals/Reds OVER 9
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Cincinnati starter, Homer Bailey, has long been touted as one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball, however, each time he gets a call up from the Minors, he gets shelled. Bailey has two starts this season, and though he is 1-0, his ERA in those starts is 8.68 and his WHIP is 2.04. He puts so many runners on base, there will be a lot of opportunities for the Cardinals to score runs. St. Louis may come close to this number themselves and the Reds will tack a few on for good measure.
Marc Lawrence
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Houston Astros
Ron Raymond
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Athletics/Indians Under
Rocketman
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KC Royals
Mike Lineback
St Louis Cardinals
Nick Parsons
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Boston Red Sox
Lenny Del Genio
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White Sox/Royals Over
Stephen Nover
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LA Dodgers