Stephen Nover
30 Dime Tigers
Sports Investment Group
Boston / Toronto UNDER 7.5
Chuck O'Brien
50 Dime Colorado Rockies -1.5
Young Guns
5* Seattle
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units San Fran +143
1 Unit Atlanta -115
1 Unit Boston -130
BOB BALFE
Cincinnati Reds +107
The Phillies are not hitting the ball well right now and have a ton of injuries. Last night, they had 3 or 4 innings that they were lucky to get out of, as the Reds couldn't push runners home. The Reds remind me a lot of how Philly was two years ago. This Cincy team has the potential to make a run deep into the playoffs this year. Take the Reds.
ATS LOCK CLUB
20 Units LOCK OF THE YEAR Arizona Diamondbacks -135
5 Units Boston Red Sox -130
5 Units Detroit Tigers -130
Sean Michaels
25 Dime Colorado Rockies
Mike Lineback
4* Jays/Red Sox Under 7.5
4* Yankees/Mariners Under 7
Added
4* Detroit Tigers
4* Chicago White Sox
King Creole
2* Indians / Rays Over 8
JIM REYNOLDS is one of the best 'OVER' Umpires in all of Major League Baseball in the last 3 seasons. Any guy that has 25 MORE 'Overs' than 'Unders' will definitely get the attention of sharp OU Players. In American League games this season, Reynolds has gone 'Over' at a 75% clip (10.8 combined runs per game). And in "Righty versus Righty" pitching matchups, his percentages are even higher (4-1 O/U / 80% this year / 26-12 O/U last 3 years). Reynolds has also gone 4-1 O/U in Indian ROAD games over the last 4 years.... and 8-2 O/U in Tampa Bay Ray games (including 4-1 O/U In THIS Park). He's also a PERFECT 3-0 O/U in career James Shields starts. Finally, we note that Reynolds has gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U on FRIDAYS...
Fausto Carmona's ERA in his last 3 starts is approaching 6 runs per game (5.71). And he's allowed MORE walks than strikeouts in those 3 starts.. an indicator of a possible shellacking tonight. In 5 career starts vs the Rays, Carmona has gone a PERFECT 4-0-1 O/U... with an ERA of 6.65.
James Shields is in a rough patch of his own these days. ERA in last 5 starts is a whopping 8.26. He's gone 4-1 O/U in those 5 starts. In his last 3 home starts, his team has lost by scores of 8-5... 14-9... and 5-4 (ERA of 12.32!).
2* Marlins / DBacks Over 8
The Fish and the Snakes went "OVER" in Game One of this series last night... and we'll look for a similar outcome in Game Two. After all, tonight's two starters (Haren and Nolasco) have combined to go 18-5 O/U in all NIGHT starts this season. Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins has a nighttime ERA that's almost a full 3 RPG more (5.35) than his daytime ERA (2.73). His lone 2009 start in this park resulted in 7 earned runs allowed in only 6 innings pitched. He's 10-3 O/U as a road dog of +150 or less... 6-2-1 O/U on Fridays... and 4-1 O/U off a Quality Start. Meanwhile, Dan Haren has gone a surprising 14-4 O/U in all starts this year. He's 8-1 O/U pitching off a Quality Start.... 11-2 O/U on 4 days of rest... 6-2 O/U on Fridays... and 8-2 O/U as a home fav.
Getting the call behind the dish will be ROB DRAKE. He comes in on a big-time "OVER" run as of late. His last 9 games dating back to late May have seen a record of 7-1-1 O/U overall. Average combined runs scored during that run has been 11.0. He just worked a game on Monday night that saw a whopping 21 runs scored (Balt @ Det). Drake has gone 7-3 O/U in Marlin games in the last 3 years (including 5-1 O/U when the Fish take to the road). Also 7-3 O/U in Arizona D'Back games (4-1 O/U at home)... and 1-0 O/U in career Dan Haren starts
1* Yankees / Mariners Over 8
This is a play on the "Over" REGARDLESS of whether Cliff Lee is traded to the Yankees today... or not. The Man in Blue in Seattle tonight is RON KULPA. He's had TWICE as many "Overs" as "Unders" on the season... and his 12-6 O/U overall is ranked #3 in overall Major League Umpire results thus far (10.0 combined RPG). His numbers have been even stronger as of late. Kulpa has gone 6-1 O/U in his last 7 games since the beginning of June. Total runs scored in those games has been: 13... 9... 5... 14... 15... 12... and 11 (11.4 RPG).
Phil Hughes of the Pin-Stripers is coming off a couple of rough starts in a row in which 13 and 11 total runs were scored (ERA of 8.48). He just faced the Mariners 11 days ago and lost by a score of 7-4. He allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings of work. His last 9 starts have seen a record of 8-1 O/U overall... and his Yankee teammates have supported him with an average of 7.6 runs per game on offense. If Cliff Lee DOES start tonight for the Mariners, we note that he has gone a PERFECT 3-0 O/U in his last 3 starts....
KELSO
10 UNIT* MLB* Florida Marlins, +130 ML
15 UNIT* MLB* Los Angeles Angels, -110 ML
25 UNIT* MLB* Detroit Tigers , -130 ML
3 UNIT* MLB* Cincinnati Reds, +105 ML
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Brewers -146
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Paul Maholm gets the nod for the visitors; Maholm got rocked in his last outing; he lasted just three innings on Saturday; he allowed eight runs off ten hits and lost 12-4 to the Phillies.
He's a dismal 1-3 in his last five starts; his ERA went from 3.98 to 4.50 because of that loss.
He's a disturbing 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in two starts vs. the Brewers this season.
And remember, this is a spot that Pittsburgh has struggled in all year; 1-6 (-4.6 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +150 range; 11-34 (-13 units) on the road; 20-40 (-8.1 units) in "night games".
In the other dugout: Doug Davis heads to the hill for the home side; Davis returns to the starting line up after a two month hiatus due to a heart issue.
On his rehab assignment he went 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA and had 16 K's and five walks over three starts.
Bottom line: Both teams are dealing with significant issues right now, but I believe that home field advantage can't be overlooked in this case.
The Pirates however have been absolutely brutal; they got just one hit in a 2-0 loss to the Astros yesterday.
The Brewers were swept by the Giants and will be hungry to erase that memory at the expense of the visiting Pirates.
Milwaukee was just 3 for 42 with runners in scoring position in that series; suffice to say I expect them to rebound here.
Look for Davis to have a big night in his return; 10* 1ST HALF GAME OF THE YEAR on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS!
JEFF BENTON
20 DIME COLORADO ROCKIES -1½
5 DIME HOUSTON ASTROS
Rockies -1½
Gotta ride the scorching-hot Rockies tonight, even though their starting pitcher tonight (Jorge De La Rosa) is coming off an 11-week stint on the disabled list and hasn’t pitched since April 25.
Colorado just swept the Cardinals – including two incredible come-from-behind victories on Tuesday and Wednesday – and it has won four in a row, six of seven on its current homestand and eight of 10 (including two wins in San Diego). With this recent surge, the Rockies are a season-high nine games over .500 and just 2 ½ games back of the Padres in the N.L. West.
As for De La Rosa, I know he got lit up in his final rehab start last week, but he was solid in his first two minor-league outings. Besides, pitching in the Pacific Coast League is not necessarily a gauge on how good a guy’s stuff is. Rather, take a look at what De La Rosa did before tearing a tendon in his finger in late April: He went 3-1 with a 3.91 ERA in his first four starts, including 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA at home. That includes a dominating 7-0 win over the Padres on April 9 (the lefty gave up just one hit and one walk with nine Ks in seven innings). And going back to last September, Colorado is 3-0 when De La Rosa faces San Diego, and De La Rosa was brilliant in two of those three starts (one run, six hits in 14 innings).
The Rockies (now 29-15 at home) have won six of nine from San Diego this season, and they’re 4-1 the last five times they’ve faced Padres right-hander Kevin Correia (all since the start of the 2009 season). In those five games, Correia gave up a total of 18 runs in 25 1/3 innings (6.40 ERA), including two losses this year by scores of 5-2 and 10-6 – and both of those games were in pitcher-friendly Petco Park!
Correia is coming off a strong 1-0 home win over the Astros, but his ERA since the end of May is still a bloated 6.50. Also, he’s 2-2 with a 6.07 ERA on the road this year, and all six of San Diego’s losses with Correia starting this season have been by multiple runs.
The Rockies are 8-2 in De La Rosa’s last 10 starts dating to last September (five wins by multiple runs) and they’re an astonishing 21-5 in his last 26 trips to the mound, 13-3 in his last 16 Coors Field starts, 5-0 in his last five Friday outings and 6-0 the last six times he’s opened a series.
Astros
Why not take a shot with Houston at this rich underdog price at home? The Astros just finished off a three-game sweep of the Pirates (giving up just five runs in the three victories), and they’ve won five straight home games. St. Louis just got swept in a three-game series at Colorado and it has lost six of its last eight overall and 11 of 15 on the road (including the last four in a row).
I know the pitching matchup here – on paper anyway – favors the Cardinals in a big way (hence the big odds). But as great as Adam Wainwright has been this season for the Redbirds, he’s a sub-.500 pitcher on the road (3-5 despite a 3.20 ERA, and St. Louis has lost six of his nine road starts). And while the Cardinals are 6-0 when Wainwright pitches in day games, they’re 6-6 when he throws at night.
Yes, Wainwright has dominated the Astros the last three seasons, leading the Cardinals to nine wins in 10 tries since the start of the 2007 season (and he’s given up just 12 runs in 70 innings (1.54 ERA). But look at what Houston right-hander Bud Norris has done in four career starts (two this year, two last year) against St. Louis: 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA (he’s allowed two runs – one earned – in 26 innings).
In fact, since the start of last August, Norris is 4-0 with a 0.35 in four starts against the Cardinals, but 4-9 with a 6.94 ERA in 17 other starts!
With Norris leading the way, the Astros have won four straight against the Cards this year (all in St. Louis), and Houston is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Texas
CSTAR SPORTS
5000 Units Detroit over Minnesota
5000 Units Texas over Baltimore
5000 Units White Sox/KC Under the total
5000 Units Arizona/Florida over the total
TEDDY COVERS
Red Sox
Braves/Mets Under 7.5
Padres/Rockies Over 9.5