POWER PLAY WINS
New York Yankees -103
Dwayne Bryant
Red Sox -131
Ricky Romero has been dominant at home, posting a 1.45 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 7 starts at Rogers Centre. The problem for Romero tonight is that Boston, despite all of their injuries, has a lineup that has hit him very well. Romero went 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA in five starts against the Red Sox as a rookie last season, failing to pitch through the sixth inning in any outing. Here are some Boston numbers against Romero: With just a few AB's, Bill Hall is 2 for 3 and Adrian Beltre is 1 for 2. With more than a handful of AB's against Romero, we have J.D. Drew at 5 for 10, David Ortiz at 6 for 12 with 3 doubles and a homer, and Kevin Youkilis at 4 for 9 with a double and 2 homers. I like our chances of run production from Boston with those numbers.
On the flip side, Jon Lester has been dominant no matter where he pitches. In 8 road starts, Lester owns a 2.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He is 10-1 with a 1.84 ERA over his last 14 outings. Lester has flat out OWNED this Jays lineup. He faced the Jays at Rogers Centre back on 4/28 and held them to ONE hit and NO runs while striking out 11 in 7 innings of work. Only Jose Molina (.385 in 13 AB's, but all singles) is hitting better than .250 against Lester. Lyle Overbay is hitting .250 with 2 doubles against Lester in 16 AB's, but nobody else has done much against him. Bautista, Buck, Encarnacion, Gonzalez, Hill, Lind, McDonald, and Wells are a combined 15 for 96 (.156) with 5 doubles and 2 homers against Lester.
Bottom line: Boston has hit Romero well in the past, so I see no reason why they won't score on him tonight. Lester has owned the Jays lineup for the most part. The Jays rely on the homerun, but Lester has only given up 5 homers in 114 innings this season, and NO homers in 52.1 innings on the road. After hitting 5 dingers last night, I wouldn't expect more than one tonight, if any at all. The Jays are only batting .205 and scoring 3.5 runs per game against lefties at home, and they'll be hard-pressed to match those numbers against Lester tonight.
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St Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
The Cardinals are in a vulnerable spot here. They are facing a divisional opponent that is well behind them in the standings, they are a big favorite and their starter is pitching very well. Many would use this information as a reason to lay the 200. However, the actual results reveal that St Louis is a money-burning 3-6 since April 15, 2010 as a 200+ favorite vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings for a net profit of $885 when playing against. Also, looking at Wainwright’s results we uncovered the fact that the Cardinals are 0-6 THIS season with Wainwright on the road when they won his last start. Finally, it is worth mentioning that St Louis is 3-6 as a road favorite of more than 120 when they won their starter’s last two starts.
This has been a terrific spot for the Astros. Houston is 6-2 THIS season as a 170+ dog vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the divisional standings and 4-0 their last four series openers. Bud Norris is off a start in San Diego in which he went seven innings and did not allow a single run. The Astros lost 1-0 when the Padres pushed across a run in the bottom of the eighth. Norris went deep into the count on many batters in that game, needed 113 pitches for 26 batters. This is a good sign, as Houston is a perfect 4-0 in franchise history as a 170+ dog with Bud Norris when he needed more than four pitches per batter in his previous start. Also, Houston is 3-0 in franchise history with Norris as a 170+ dog when they scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start.
Finally, Norris has faced the Cardinals four times in his young career. The Astros won those four games by scores of 2-0, 3-0, 5-1 and 4-1. Really. The Astros have to be at least a coin flip here. We’ll grab the inflated price.
MTi’s FORECAST: HOUSTON 3 St Louis 2