Trace Adams
2000♦ One-and-Only Interleague Game of the Year Washington Nationals
Here we go boys, breakeng out the big guns tonight and backing the Nationals as they look for their 4th win in a row.
I don't know if you watched Strasburg make his ML debut the other night, but his start has definitely energized this Washington team. The Nats are a pretty solid team, and the middle of the lineup with Dunn, Zimmerman, and Willingham is certainly capable of puttting some runs up on the board in Cleveland tonight.
Indians starter Jake Westbrook has had some nice turns over his last few starts, but his last start was rather ugly, as he allowed 6 runs in just 5 innings of work against the White Sox. For the season, Westbrook is 0-1 at home in 4 starts, and has an ERA that stands at 5.56. Believe me, Washington will hit this guy.
Luis Atilano has been a find for the Nats, and catcher Pudge Rodriguez surely knows this ball park from his AL days, so expect Pudge to guide Atilano through the foreign terrain. Atilano has gone a perfect 4-0 on the road this year, and has a road ERA of just 3.18.
Cleveland showed some fire in their series with Boston (especially last night!), but the fact remains, this Indians team has won just 10 times against 16 losees at home for the year.
As I said, Washington has a pep in their step since Strasburg joined the team, and their winning streak hits 4 in a row with the win tonight.
Lenny Del Genio
Boston -140
The Red Sox pitching faltered the last two nights as they allowed the lowly Indians to put up 19 runs. They’re back home tonight and expect a much better pitching performance from their starter Lackey. The Red Sox righty is starting to get settle in Boston. In his last three starters he has a 3.72 ERA and 2-1 team start record. He should be able to shut down this Philly team who’s been struggling at the plate hitting only .243 and scoring 3.7 runs in their last seven games. Philadelphia sends out Moyer and the Red Sox are licking their chops. Boston has murdered lefties this season scoring 6.1 runs in their 21 games against southpaws. That scoring output should continue tonight against Moyer who has a lofty 4.59 ERA on the road this season. Philly was shutout last night and they don’t respond very well with a 1-9 record after being held scoreless. The Phillies bull pen hasn’t performed very well of late and the Red Sox are an unbelievable 15-1 over the past three years against teams with pen’s that have a 6.00 or more ERA in their past 10 games. Play on Boston.
Texas -115
The Red Hot Rangers visit Milwaukee tonight having won three straight. The Texas bats have been sizzling pounding out 7.6 runs per game and hitting .327 over the last seven games. They shouldn’t have any trouble staying hot against the Brewers start Narveson who can’t get anyone out of late. The Brewer lefty is 0-3 in his last three outings with a lofty 7.47 ERA. Texas has posted +$925 in profits this season in night games versus lefties. Harden gets the start for Texas and he should have no problem tonight against the Brewers who are an awful $-845 this season at home versus righties. The Brewers are $125 dogs tonight and they’ve been a money losing 3-11 this season when the number is between $-125 and $+125. Rangers pound the Brewers! Play on Texas.
Minnesota -140
Tough spot for the Braves tonight as they come into Minnesota after visiting LA and Arizona. The Braves have been playing very good baseball but they’ve struggled against lefties on the road, and tonight they face a very good southpaw in Liriano. He’s been very tough here in Minnesota with a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in four starts. In those outings he’s fanned 24 batters and on the season has whiffed 76 in only 72 2/3 innings. Hudson gets the start for Atlanta and he comes in with a 2.44 ERA, but that’s a good sign for the Twins. Minnesota is 11-2 in Interleague play when opposing a pitcher with a 3.50 or better ERA. The Twins have been a money machine this season when favored by $-150 or less posting a 21-5 record. The Twins beat the Braves in this series opener. Play on Minnesota.
Cajun Sports
5* Game of the Month - Twins -127
This weekend’s baseball action will consist of Interleague play with the exception of one NL series. Our focus for Friday’s card is on the Braves-Twins series where Atlanta will send right-hander Tim Hudson to the bump to face left-hander Francisco Liriano of the Twins. Hudson is 6-1 on the season with an ERA of 2.44 but his teammates have struggled on the highway posting a record of 15-20 on the year. Atlanta’s bullpen has also found the going tough on the highway blowing five saves in ten chances. This fact could come into play tonight even though Hudson has a very good record this season it has all come against NL opponents and his Interleague record has seen him go 1-13 in fourteen Interleague starts. Atlanta is 1-6 their last seven Interleague road games facing left-handed starters and 0-4 versus the American League Central Division. The Twins on the other hand have been dominating at home going 20-9 this season and 10-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Minnesota is 7-1 when Liriano takes the bump versus National League opponents, 5-1 when he starts Game 1 of a series and 4-1 when he is a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins are 20-6 versus NL East teams, 16-5 at home versus National League teams with a winning record, 40-13 versus National League right-handers, 53-18 as a home favorite in this price range, 21-7 in Game 1 of a series and 56-20 their last seventy-six Interleague games overall. Minnesota is 11-2 versus NL starters whose ERA is 3.50 or better and 10-1 versus NL starters who have a WHIP of 1.250 or better on the season. A check of the database reveals two powerful league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest. The first one tells us to Play AGAINST MLB NL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season and the team is averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game on the season. Playing against these underdogs has produced a record of 63-23 the last five years for 73.3 percent winners and +33.2 Units of profit. The second system tells us to Play AGAINST NL road teams in this price range with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better, with a team on base percentage of .340 or better on the season. When fading these road teams the record is 39-13 the last five seasons for 75 percent winners and +26.5 Units of profit. This system is also 4-1 during the 2010 campaign. Our TPR Index favors the Twins by 2.49 runs over the Braves and our Math Model projects a Twins victory by 2.02 runs. With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for Minnesota we will lay the short price as they get an easy win over the Atlanta Braves on Friday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Minnesota Twins 4 Atlanta Braves 2
Scott Sprietzer
5* Minn
3* St Louis
3* Clev
3* Boston
Tony Karpinski
10* Interleague Game of the Year - Minnesota Twins -134
Minnesota has been rock-solid in their new park with a 21-9 start, and starter Francisco Liriano is 2-1 with a 2.25 home ERA. So far teams have struggled in their first game in this new park. The Braves are also playing for the 9th day in a row plus travel from the long hot game in Arizona on Thursday.
Atlanta throws out Tim Hudson who is 1-11 with a 7.27 ERA in 14 interleague starts since he was traded to Atlanta before the 2005 season. He hasn't won an interleague start on the road since beating Pittsburgh on June 20, 2002.
Meanwhile, Liriano, who has never faced the Braves, is 7-1 with a 2.67 ERA in eight career interleague starts. NL opponents are batting .198 against the left-hander, who has struck out 61 in 54 innings and is back to his old form.
Jason Heyward was in the lineup on Thursday but playing bruised up. Him and Nate McLouth collided in the outfield in Wednesday's game and Nate seems to have taken the worst of it being out of yesterdays game. Heyward hasn't done much at the plate lately, going 6 for 40 (.150) in his last 10 games. He has no homers and two RBI in that span. Heyward has hit a bit of a rookie wall. Liriano looks to continue his dominance of the NL as he catches a banged up and road weary Braves team tonight. Lets bang home the Minnesota Twins on Friday night as our 10* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR!
John Ryan
New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles
25* graded play on Baltimore as they take on the Mets in inter-league action set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Orioles will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 55-28 making 26.5 units for 66% winners since 2004. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season and where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season. Mets are just 19-53 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons; 3-21 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons; 8-29 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 16-9 (+14.4 Units) against the money line after having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. Mets are batting just 233 with a horrid 297 OBP in 26 road games this season. Bull has struggled in those road games posting a 5.51 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. Since Dickey went 6 shutout innings at Philadelphia his last two starts have been shaky at best. He has allowed 16 hits and 7 ER in 13.3 innings spanning those two starts. Guthrie is a vastly under rated starter and flies under the radar simply because he is in Baltimore. He has posted a 3.71 ERA and a 1.133 WHIP in 12 starts this season and has posted a 3.26 ERA and a 1.293 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He has pitched at least 6 full innings in 7 straight starts and we have no doubt that this will be a 7+ inning gem. Guthrie has an excellent 2-seamer and a top rated slider that he can throw for a first pitch strike or use as his out pitch. His FB has enough movement on it that he can even throw it when behind in the count and the batter sitting on that pitch. He has been very dominating to RH batters allowing a 191 BA on the season. Mets starter Dickey throws knuckle ball 67% of the time and FB the other third. Hitters are batting 303 on that FB and even the knuckle ball is that all that effective with hitters batting 284. In addition 20% of his pitches are low and away and that allows batters to look that way and take the pitch opposite field. Given that his FB is not all that dominating he is not going to fool many hitters with the FB and given that it will be low and away makes it that much easier to rope. Take Baltimore.
RJ Robbins
Mariners/Padres Over 6.5
Orioles -113
The Duke's Sports
Oakland Over (6') for 2 Units
Very low scoring series history gives us "over" value with 2 starting pitchers that have not been efficient with their pitches as of late. Oakland's Gio Gonzalez walked a combined 7 over his last few road starts and averaged around 20 pitches per inning over his last 3 road starts. SF is batting a healthy .326 vs lefties at home and should give him trouble;moreover,Gonzalez is 6-1 O/U on 4 days rest. On the other hand, Tim Lincecum is having trouble getting back into CY Young Award winning form; after all, he has allowed 17 ER over his last 22 1/3 innings of work. And the once dominant SF bullpen is now giving up runs (4.15 ERA last 10). With Oakland batting a healthy .326 vs righties this month, we'll look fro the "over" to hit.
Sportbook Guru
2 Units Texas/Milwaukee Under 9.5
2 Units Toronto/Colorado Over 7.5
2 Units Arizona +120
2 Units Cleveland -125
2 Units Atlanta +125
2 Units Milwaukee +105
Executive
250% Orioles
BEN BURNS
Added
Cleveland Indians -125
Baltimore Orioles -115
FREDDY WILLS
4'5* Twins -144
Jeff Benton
20 Dime: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -1½
10 Dime: BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Giants -1½
Break’s over for the two-time reigning N.L. Cy Young Award winner – time for Tim Lincecum to wake up and resume being his dominant self. And I say the wake-up call comes tonight against the A’s, who have been brutal as a road team and whom Lincecum has embarrassed three times in the last two seasons.
First, a word about Lincecum’s recent performances. They haven’t been up to his standards – not by a long shot. He’s given up 17 earned runs in his last four starts, pitching a combined 21 2/3 innings (7.06 ERA). He doesn’t have a decision in any of those four games, during which the Giants went 1-3. Compare those numbers to Lincecum’s first eight starts when he went 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA and San Francisco won seven of those contests (five by multiple runs).
Why is it a good idea to jump back on the Timmy bandwagon tonight? Well, for one thing, Oakland is just 11-17 on the road this year with a .250 team batting average and a 5.27 team ERA. For another thing, Lincecum has blown the A’s away three times in a row. In 2008, he led the Giants to a 1-0 win, scattering five hits and three walks in seven shutout innings. Last year, he pitched two complete games (winning 3-0 and 4-1) against Oakland, yielding just one run, 14 hits and three walks in those 19 innings.
Lincecum’s K/BB ratio in his last three outings against the A’s? 31 whiffs vs. 6 free passes!
Now, obviously, Lincecum can’t do it himself tonight. He’ll need some offensive help, meaning the Giants need to hit Gio Gonzalez, who has been tough most of the season, going 6-3, 3.58 ERA, including 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in his last five starts. The fourth start during this run was a brilliant 1-0 win over the Giants (Gonzalez gave up just two hits in eight shutout innings).
However, it’s important to note that game was played in Oakland (the A’s – like the Giants – are much better at home than on the road). It’s also important to remind you that Gonzalez pitches left-handed, and San Francisco murders lefties at home (.326 team average, compared with an average below .250 at home against southpaws). One more thing about Gonzalez: He’s been a totally different pitcher when working under the sun (4-0, 1.26 ERA in four day games) as opposed to working at night (2-3, 5.08 ERA in eight starts).
Finally, this is a BIG payback series for the Giants, who got swept by their little Bay Area brother last month, losing three games in Oakland by a combined score of 10-1. Don’t think that won’t be on the players’ minds tonight. Besides, the home team has won seven of nine in this rivalry, and 20 of the last 22 meetings since 2006 have been decided by more than one run (the only exceptions being a pair of 1-0 contests).
Oakland has lost eight of 11 in N.L. ballparks, 14 of 20 as a road underdog, 15 of 21 on the road against right-handed starters and seven of eight when an underdog in interleague play. Conversely, the Giants are on runs of 9-3 at home, 4-0 as a favorite, 8-0 when returning from a road trip of 7 or more days and 20-9 when Lincecum works at home.
In the end, I see this as a very low-scoring game, with a rejuvenated and angry Lincecum ensuring that the punchless A’s have the lowest score of all: ZERO! Giants roll by three or more in this one!
Orioles
Never easy to lay chalk with a team that’s lost 19 of its last 24 games and hasn’t won consecutive games in about a month, but I absolutely believe the Orioles provide value tonight. First, they’re coming off a much-needed, confidence-building 4-3 win over the Yankees last night (they jumped ahead 2-1, fell behind 3-2 and rallied back for the victory).
Secondly, they’ve got their best, most consistent pitcher on the mound in Jeremy Guthrie, whose 3-6 record doesn’t do him justice, as he’s posted a 3.71 ERA in his 12 starts, nine of which have been quality outings (he gave up three earned runs or fewer and pitched at least six innings in those nine specific outings). Guthrie has been very strong at home, going 2-3 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP (he’s surrendered 33 baserunners in 33 innings).
Third, the Mets are a dreadful road team, having won just eight of 26 games as a visitor. Going back to last season, New York is 16-39 on foreign soil. New York’s biggest problem on the road? An inability to hit. The Mets bat just .233 as a team outside of the Big Apple, and that average dips even further against right-handed pitching (.225). Then again, the pitching (5.01 starters ERA; 5.51 bullpen ERA) hasn’t helped the cause on the highway, either.
Bottom line: After running through the A.L. East gauntlet over the past 12 games (six vs. the Yankees; three vs. the Red Sox; three at Toronto), the Orioles finally get to pick on somebody their own size. And considering they’ve won four of their last five interleague home games and five of six when facing right-handed pitching from the N.L. – while the Mets are 2-6 in their last eight interleague contests, all versus the mighty A.L. East – I’ll side with Guthrie and the O’s at this cheap price. After all, there’s no way Baltimore (17-43) is going to play sub-.300 baseball all season – the wins will come, and one comes tonight!
JAY MCNEIL
200 DIME Colorado Rockies -1½
MARC LAWRENCE
3 Units Minnesota Twins -130