BOB BALFE
Brazil +120
Brazil and Portugal both are going to advance to the next round, but the winner will have a better spot in the round of 16 so this game still has a lot of significance. Brazil is a much deeper team, and I am not buying Portugals 7-0 rout of North Korea as them being 100% back on track. Take Brazil.
North Korea +1.5
North Korea had a horrible second half against Portugal, but really are not that bad of a team. With both teams having nothing to play for its hard to predict this game, but I do think North Korea will hang in there and cover this spread (and we only have to risk -130). Take North Korea +1.5.
Chile +550
This is going to be a great game where both teams could win the group or not advance at all. Chile has played great in the tournament. Again, it is not smart to go against any of the South American teams as they have been playing so well. This line holds great value. Chile has yet to allow a goal so I like their chances. Take Chile +550.
Switzerland -1
The Swiss are very much alive and, with a blowout win, they will advance to the next round. You have to figure the goal difference in the Spain/Chile game will not be much, so if the Swiss can go out and beat Honduras by a big margin, they will advance. Look for the Swiss to be the superior team today. Take Switzerland -1.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
The Phillies are the away team, but are really at home with the G20 Summit forcing this game to be played in Philly. Roy Halladay has lost 3 straight and is looking to get back on track against a pitcher he is much better than as well as against his former team. The Phillies will get the 9th inning at bat, if needed to score more runs, which is big when playing runlines. Take Philadelphia -1.5.
KEITH FREDRICK
Pittsburgh at Oakland
Pick: Pittsburgh +165
Yes, Pittsburgh IS 2-10 in their last twelve games, but (and this is key) SO IS OAKLAND! As such, cannot justify a line this high, and as such the dog is the play, especially since I really liked the way Lincoln pitched in his last game. He put in a quality start (going six innings and allowing three runs) but more importantly looked much more comfortable in that start than he did in his first two starts. Good value play on the Pirates here.
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units White Sox -134
1 Unit St. Louis +140
1 Unit Boston +112
3 Units Honduras/ Switz Under 2.5 -125
1 Unit Chile +750
Sports Investment Group
Cubs / White Sox Over 8.5
Seabass
200* KC
100* White Sox
100* SF
50* SD
50* SEA
50* Swiss
NSA
20* Washington -115
20* St Louis +135
20* Boston +115
Tony George
1 Unit Reds -1.5
First up the Reds will destroy these guys tonight but I am not laying -180 so lets drop it down in odds on the runline at +115. A GREAT Value tonight with the Reds at home. I also expect fireworks in this one as well, with both starters not in good form, and both bullpens giving up hits and putting runners in scoring position like crazy as of late. The Tribe have went over in 7 out of their last 10 games. Both starting pitchers have over a 5 ERA and both put guys on base. The Reds have went over in 6 out of their last 8 home games.
Craig Davis
50 Dime Mets
10 Dime Oakland -1.5
Paul Leiner
50* Giants -120
25* Det/Atl Over 9
Executive
250% Florida
DAVID MALINSKY
4* SAN FRANCISCO/BOSTON OVER 8
We are not supposed to be seeing an “8” in many Boston games right now, and certainly not in a Tim Wakefield/Jonathan Sanchez matchup with both bullpens weary. So with the wind blowing towards China Basin, we can get in play here.
The Red Sox have played 22 games in June, and only five finished with fewer than eight runs. An “8” as a Total has only appeared once, in a John Lackey/Ubaldo Jimenez hookup earlier this week that sailed Over. The 2-5/5.33 of Tim Wakefield does not bring anything special to the table, and the bullpen behind him poses major issues for Terry Francona. With Jonathan Papelbon almost assuredly out off of back-to-back nights, with a draining 32 pitches on Thursday, and Daniel Bard also off of a back-to-back (he has never worked three straight days in his career), the closer situation is cloudy, and with Scott Atchison out after 36 pitches last night, and Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez and Hideki Okajima all working two of the three games in Colorado, and all going last night, fresh set-up arms are not there either.
Jonathan Sanchez brings some market respect off of his 5-5/2.90, but this is a difficult matchup for him. Not only do the Red Sox lead the Major Leagues in runs and hits, but they are 3rd in drawing W’s, and that is his Achilles heel – a patient offense can force him deep into pitching counts, and out of his rhythm. Such challenges have been few and far between for him so far this season – of the 128 pitchers that have worked at least 60 innings, his difficulty of batters faced checks in at #126. He is coming off of a season high 27.4 PPI in his last outing, when he issued W’s to five of the 17 batters he faced at Toronto, the fourth time in the last 11 starts he has been pushed above 20.0, and we call for more of the same here. With Barry Zito and Matt Cain only lasting a combined 6.2 innings the last two days, the Giant bullpen also brings its own late-game issues, leaving the door wide open for runs throughout in this one.
Scott Rickenbach
10* Milwaukee / Seattle Over
Dave Bush is coming off of a win in his last start. However, that was on June 15th against the Los Angeles Angels and it was the first win for Bush since April 20th. Then, after a rare solid outing like that, Bush got skipped in the Brewers series with the Twins and he’s not happy about it. You can believe that this absolutely could impact him in this start as he takes the mound with some frustration in his mind certainly effecting his focus here. Bush did not want to be skipped after such a strong start and he now takes the mound a full ten days after his prior start! Bush has struggled this season and an extra layoff after a rare good start is certainly unlikely to do him any favors. Bush has compiled some ugly numbers this season and he’s particularly struggled at home where he’s winless in six starts in Milwaukee with a 5.57 ERA and he’s been pounded at a .313 clip. Note that Bush is 1-1 in three career starts against Seattle but he’s compiled a 4.96 ERA and been hit at a .286 clip. In his career night games, Bush has a 4.92 ERA. The Mariners certainly are known for being a lower-scoring team and for lacking offensive punch. However, playing their home games at Safeco Field plays a role in that as well. Note that in their last 9 road games the Mariners have only played to an under two times! Also, Seattle is 4-2 to the over this season when they are a road dog of +125 to +150.
The Brewers are 17-9 to the over this season when they are playing a team with a losing record. Also, Milwaukee is 17-12 to the over when the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs. The Brewers have won four straight games and they’ve averaged six runs per game in their last five games. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Mariners southpaw Ryan Rowland-Smith. In fact, the Brewers lead the National League with a .454 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers this season. While Rowland-Smith is coming off of a quality start he did have issues with his command (five walks), he recorded just two strikeouts, and that start was at home. Note that Rowland-Smith has had a very rough time in road games this season. The left-hander is winless in his seven starts away from home and he’s been absolutely rocked as Rowland-Smith has compiled an 8.04 ERA and a .393 batting average against. Also, it’s interesting to note that what little success Rowland-Smith has had this season has been confined almost exclusively to day games. As for his night games, the Mariners lefty has gone 0-5 with a 7.68 ERA and he’s been rocked at a .378 clip.
As for the two bullpens involved in tonight’s game, the Mariners pen has regressed dramatically this season> Seattle’s relief corps is normally a strength but, this season, their bullpen ERA ranks them 22nd out of the 30 teams. As for the Brewers, their ugly bullpen ERA ranks them 29th in the majors! You should absolutely expect runs early, often, and throughout this contest tonight on Friday! Yesterday’s over died early after the Brewers jumped out to a 5-0 lead. However, that 5-0 Brewers win was the 11th time this season that either Milwaukee or their opponent was shutout in their match-up. The Brewers are 7-3 (70%) to the over in the next game the first ten times that has occurred this season. We look for that record to improve to 8-3 tonight after yesterday’s rare shutout! Play OVER the total in Milwaukee as a *10* Top Play selection.
DAVID BANKS
White Sox -134
Marlins -113
Reds -173
Braves -160
Angels -153
Yankees -170
KELSO
25 UNIT KC Royals -150
15 UNIT Texas Rangers -1.5 RL
10 UNIT Chicago White Sox (4 PM)
3 UNIT NY Mets
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 units Marlins
4 units Giants
4 units Over Nationals/Orioles