JR O'Donnell
2* Chicago Blackhawks -105
The Black Hawks will get back in the Winners column behind A Neimi who is a rock in the late season. The Black hawks also get a boost tonight as A Ladd returns to the line up and he will add the spark that takes the Hawks over the top! The public will ride the Flyers at this cheap price but we will ride a hot road team and we will pound the Chi Boys as a side winner
Dave Cokin
He is in a slump (seems like everyone got lit up yesterday) but still very much up on the year. Good luck to all.
Matchup: Tampa Bay at Texas
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) DAVIS, W vs. (L) WILSON, CJ
Play: Tampa Bay (ML +106)
The Rays just keep on rolling, and they look every bit like the team to beat right now in the American League. This team has no problems at all playing on the road, and they continue to produce quality starts throughout the rotation, which makes life a lot easier for the solid Rays bullpen. Texas is happy to back home where they have played good ball all season. But CJ Wilson has been struggling lately, and I have to think the converted reliever is wearing out some as the innings begin to accumulate. Making matters worse for Wilson tonight is him having to face a TB lineup that has been crushing southpaws all season. Even though Wade Davis is probably the least dominating of the TB starters, he's not bad and I give him the nod tonight to get the job done better than Wilson. With the Rays posted as a small dog, they're definitely the right side in my view.
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Matchup: L.A. Angels at Seattle
Time: 10:10 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) SAUNDERS, J vs. (R) SNELL, I
Play: L.A. Angels (ML -110)
The Mariners have suddenly shown some life with a trio of wins in succession against the Twins. But I don't like their chances of extending the run here. Even though the Mariners beat up Joe Saunders last weekend, the Angels lefty has awesome numbers vs. Seattle and he's a perfect 5-0 lifetime at Safeco. Ian Snell is on the hill for the Mariners, and he's simply one of the weakest starting pitchers in the game. The Angels are not really missing a beat since the Kendry Morales injury and are off a series win at Kansas City, so they're in good enough form heading into this contest. I like Saunders over Snell, and the price is right for a play on the Angels to get the victory.
Fox Stat Sheets
Super Situations
MIL at STL
Play On - Any team (MILWAUKEE) with a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL)
64-46 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.2% | 36.2 units )
7-8 this year. ( 46.7% | 1.7 units )
Situational Power Trends
BOS at BAL
BOSTON is 12-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in Road games after 4 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: BOSTON (6.0) , OPPONENT (3.7)
MR EAST
MLB FRIDAY WEST COAST WINNER
MINNESOTA TWINS @ OAKLAND A's
3 UNITS OAKLAND A's -1.5
Dallas Braden has been a dynamic pitcher at home for the A's. He has worked 42 innings, allowing 10 runs, and pitching to a rock solid 2.14 ERA. The A's are finding some offense scoring 47 times in their last 9, good for 52 runs a contest. The Twin offense really struggled on the road in Seattle where they scored a single run in each of the last 3 games, all losses. The Twins road woes show just 2 runs a game over their last 7. A's dealing aces at home vs teams with a losing road record, at 21-7 in their last 28. I'll go with Oakland on the runline.
Beat Your Bookie
10* Play Cincinnati (+105) over Washington
Washington is 1-5 over the last 6 games and they are also 15-25 when playing as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Washington pitcher, Livan Hernandez is 4-8 when pitching in the month of June over the last 3 season and he is 2-7 vs. Cincinnati over his career with an ERA of 5.64.
5* Play Colorado (+105) over Arizona
Arizona is 0-10 over the last 10 games and they are also 1-9 after batting .200 or worse over the last 3 games. Arizona is 3-17 coming off two or more losses and they are also 5-19 when the line posted is between +125 to -125.
Tony George
Kansas City +120
Worth the stretch on Kansas City with Chen on the mound tonight. His ERA is under 3 in his last 3 starts and off a tough loss to the Angles last night, I like KC to bounce back at home. Bullpen ERA is under 3 for KC the last 3 games while the Tigers bullpens ERA is over 6 in their last 3 games and not in good form, with Schezer, the Tigers starter having an ERA of 6 on the year himself. KC squeaks one out here.Play 1 Unit on Kansas City +120.
NSA
20* Yanks -130
20* Red Sox -170
20* Flyers -115
BOBBY MAXWELL
500 UNIT Tampa Bay Rays
KARL GARRETT
20 DIME Cincinnati Reds
10 DIME Tampa Bay Rays
DEREK MANCINI
10 DIME Houston Astros
5 DIME Detroit Tigers
MICHAEL CANNON
25 DIME SF Giants
10 DIME LA Angels
5 DIME Tampa Bay Rays
STEPHEN NOVER
60 DIME Cincinnati Reds
ATS Lock Club
5 Units Giants
4 Units A's
4 Units Rangers
Scott Rickenbach
10* Toronto vs New York Yankees Over
The Yankees are 11-3 to the over this season when they are on the road and the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, against divisional opponents this season, the Yankees are 15-5 to the over. Interestingly enough, the Yankees are 6-2 to the over on Fridays and the Blue Jays are 7-1 to the over on Fridays. That means we’ve got a combined trend of 13-3 working in our favor here. The Blue Jays were off yesterday and they are 3-1 to the over this season after a day off. The Yankees are a perfect 3-0 to the over this season when playing on artificial turf and we look for a big night for them at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. Look for the Yanks to pound Brett Cecil. The southpaw compiled an 11.25 ERA in his two starts against the Yankees last season. Cecil has been very impressive on the road this season but, at home, the southpaw has a 6.19 ERA so far this season. Also, in his career, Cecil has a 3.42 ERA in day games but a 5.46 ERA in night games. Cecil, like most southpaws, is much more susceptible to right-handed batters than lefties and he’s facing a Yankees team whose roster of position players is made up of mostly right-handed hitters and switch-hitters. Also, one of the few left-handed bats that is likely to be in the lineup for the Yanks tonight is Robinson Cano and he’s not only red hot right now, he’s also 4 for 5 in his career against Cecil.
The Yankees send AJ Burnett to the mound to face his former team. He’s facing team that leads the majors in homers. Also, Burnett’s only start at the Rogers Centre since leaving the Blue Jays in 2008 saw him allow five earned runs in seven innings last season. Overall, Burnett has faced the Jays three times (all last season) and they’ve hit .284 against him. Burnett is 3-1 on the road so far this season but note the 4.29 ERA and the .274 BAA. Also, the Yankees right-hander is 3-0 in day games with a stellar 1.23 ERA but, in night games this season, Burnett is just 3-2 with a 4.20 ERA and he’s been hammered at a .277 clip in those games! The Yankees have averaged nearly 7 runs per game in their last 8 games while the Blue Jays have scored at least 5 runs in 13 of their last 19 games. With neither bullpen performing very well so far this season (and the Jays come into this match-up off of multiple blown late leads), the power – literally – is going to rest with the offenses in this one. Play OVER the total in Toronto as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Washington vs Cincinnati Over
Cincinnati is hitting the ball very well right now as well as on the season. The Reds .275 batting average, 5.1 runs per game, and 70 homers on the season all rank Cincinnati among the top teams in the league in those categories. Their offense should certainly continue to “click” tonight but the concern for the Reds will be their pitching and that’s why the play here is the over. Cincinnati’s bullpen has been about as big of a disappointment as the offense has been a positive surprise. Making matters worse for the Reds tonight is that the bullpen could be called upon very early in this one. Cincinnati sends Aaron Harang to the mound tonight and he’s compiled a 5.48 ERA so far this season. Also, the right-hander has been particularly dreadful on the road where he’s compiled a 6.95 ERA and been pounded at a .355 clip! As for his career numbers against the Nationals, don’t be fooled by his respectable 3.99 ERA. Harang has been pounded at a .304 clip by Washington bats and he’s winless in five career starts against the Nats. Harang is coming off of a solid start against Houston in his most recent outing. However, prior to that, the Reds right-hander had allowed four earned runs in each of his last three starts. Note that he’s facing a Washington team that is hitting .286 at home this season (among the best in the majors!) and it’s going to be a warm and humid night in D.C. so conditions are ripe for the ball to carry well in this one!
The Reds offense will do their best to “bail out” Harang tonight. Cincinnati should have very little trouble with the offerings of Livan Hernandez. The Nationals veteran right-hander pitched well early this season but the Nats have lost three of the last four starts he’s made and he’s been hit hard in those three outings. In the three Washington defeats Hernandez allowed 22 hits in 17.1 innings of work. Though Hernandez has pitched well at home so far this season, he has allowed five homers in his last four home starts! Also, he’s an ugly 2-7 with a 5.64 ERA and a .298 BAA in his career outings against the Reds. The Nationals have gone over the total in 6 of their last 9 games. Cincinnati is 21-12 to the over this season when facing a right-handed starter. Also, the Reds have gone over the total in 12 of their last 18 games. That means we’ve got two teams on long-term 67% trends to the over and the way the Nats have hit at home this season, the way the Reds have hit this season, and with this pitching match-up and a weak Cincy bullpen, we won’t hesitate to step in here. Play OVER the total in Washington as an *8* Regular Play selection.
8* Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs Chicago
The Flyers have simply shown no signs of being intimidated in this series and, in fact, they have proven they match up quite well with the Blackhawks. Philadelphia has outshot Chicago in two of the three games in this series and, in the other game, the shots on goal were equal. The Flyers have battled and battled all the way so far in this series and they got their just reward with a Game Three overtime win after having dominated the third period against the Hawks. Chicago’s Dustin Byfuglien – such a key factor in earlier post-season series – has been, as we expected, neutralized by the Flyers 6’6 defenseman Chris Pronger. The Flyers big man has had a huge post-season and he’s the only Flyer on the roster who has won a Stanley Cup and his experience and locker room presence has proven invaluable to these “never say die” Flyers. They have never let Chicago run away from them in this series and we’ve been very impressed with how crisp the Flyers have been in terms of their passing and stick-handling.
Philly is simply on their game and playing at the highest level we’ve ever seen from this team. That’s why they are now in position to even this series up. The Flyers have gotten solid scoring from beyond their top line and guys like Danny Briere are simply having phenomenal success in this post-season. All that said and still the Flyers are a very small home favorite in this Game Four match-up. Keep in mind, Philadelphia is 8-1 in the post-season on home ice, Michael Leighton has rebounded from his Game One struggles to resume his great success in this post-season, and the Flyers record on home ice ever since the calendar hit 2010 is a stellar 23 wins in 30 games! Behind another huge crowd at the Wachovia Center and, again, benefiting from getting to match their lines better with the Hawks line changes by virtue of being on home ice, look for the Flyers to notch their 9th home win in 10 post-season games tonight. Grab the value with the home team at the small price. Play Philadelphia on the money line as an *8* Regular Play selection.
ASA
5* Philadelphia -115 over Chicago
The Flyers got the big win they needed in Game Three. For all the talk - coming into this series - of the Blackhawks being too much for the Flyers that simply has not been the case. Philadelphia has not been outshot in any of the 3 games in this series. The Flyers offense has been even better than expected in terms of creating opportunities against the Hawks defense. As for the defense, Chris Pronger has proven to be the big post-season presence the Flyers have needed on the blue line. With him anchoring the defense and Danny Briere having a fantastic post-season up front, the Flyers have shown no signs of withering in this series. They have battled in each and every game and easily could be up 2 games to 1 in this series. Even with how well Philly has played - and they are 8-1 at home in the post-season - they are still priced as a very small home favorite in this spot. Chicago is certainly a strong team and has had a great post-season but the Flyers just aren't getting the respect they deserve on home ice. They get the line change edge by virtue of being at home and they will also have another raucous crowd supporting them. Wednesday's crowd was the largest crowd to watch a hockey game in Pennsylvania history. They were not disappointed Wednesday and they will not be disappointed Friday either. The Flyers already came back from a 3-0 deficit against the Bruins in these playoffs. A 2-0 hole certainly has not phased them and they've played very well and can tie the series up tonight...and they will do just that.
Paul Leiner
100* Twins -110
50* Yanks -130
25* Marlins -110
KEITH FREDRICK
Indians at White Sox
Pick: White Sox -1.5
Masterson has lost eight games for the Tribe this season (team start wise) and ALL EIGHT have been decided by more than two runs, with the last three being -4/-5/-3 on the scale. Indians also fit a 1-7 underdog angle and are facing John Danks, he of hte 1.96 Home ERA this season. The last two times he has faced the Indians the ChiSox have won 6-1 and 7-2, and I see another comfortable win this time around.
Anthony Redd
30 Dime - Rays/Rangers Under
5 Dime - Padres
5 Dime - Blue Jays
5 Dime - Royals
5 Dime - Chicago Sky
Chris Jordan
300 Units Red Sox -1.5
100 Units Astros
Chuck O' Brien
20 Units Astros
10 Units Cardinals -1.5
Al DeMarco
15 Units Cardinals -1.5