Wunderdog
5 Units Atlanta Dream -6.5
The Atlanta Dream have come a long way in a short time. The Dream took forever to win their first WNBA game, but are out of the gate a strong 6-1 to start 2010. The Sky have yet to turn the corner especially on the road where they are just 6-16 over their last 22. The inconsistency has also led them to a 3-12 ATS mark following a win. Atlanta is in a prime WNBA spot, one that shows teams losing their last game by 10+ points then facing an opponent that has scored 70+ in at least their last two games have gone 71-21 ATS! I'll go with Atlanta in this one.
John Ryan
7* New York Liberty +5.5
Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that NY will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a reasonable probability to win the game SU. The model shows that both teams will shoot between 40 and 44% from the field and this puts NY in strong positions for an ATS win. NY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when their opponents make 40% to 44% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 44% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a money line system that has produced a record of 171-136 and has made 78.3 units since 2004. Play on any team versus the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games facing an opponent after having won 2 of their last 3 games. Last, but not least, NY is a near perfect 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Take New York.
Master Sports
4* Cubs
4* Detroit
4* Ariz
3* S Fran
3* Yankees Under
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units NY Yanks -130
1 Unit Cubs -125
1 Unit Atlanta +150
Jeff Benton
50 DIME: TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Yes, the Yankees have won five in a row and six of their last seven. Howevar, all seven of those wins were in the Bronx, and all seven of those wins came against two teams – Baltimore and Cleveland – that are in dead last in their respective divisions and a combined 38 games under .500. Those points need to be made for three reasons: 1) Toronto (31-24) is seven games over .500 and just 3½ games behind New York in the standings; 2) Toronto, despite suffering back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Rays in its last two games, has won nine of its last 12 at home; and 3) the Yankees are a mediocre baseball team on the road (15-13, including 4-7 in the last 11).
Now, you could overlook those three facts and justify the Yankees being favored in this game if they had a huge advantage on the mound tonight. They don’t – not even close. While New York’s A.J. Burnett has been solid this year (6-2, 3.28 ERA), Toronto lefty Brett Cecil has been just as good (5-2, 3.81 ERA). And when you look at recent form, here’s what you see: Burnett has allowed 17 earned runs in his last five starts covering 30 2/3 innings (4.99 ERA), with New York going 3-2, while Cecil is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA over his last three starts. And going back to April 28, Cecil has been strong in six of his last seven outings, allowing just nine earned runs in 41 innings (1.98 ERA) in those six specific contests.
Back to Burnett: He hasn’t been as good on the road (4.29 ERA) as he has been at Yankee Stadium (2.27 ERA); he hasn’t been as good at night (3-2, 4.20 ERA in eight games) as he has been in day games (3-0, 1.23 ERA); and last year, the former Blue Jay pitched once in his former stadium and got rocked (five runs allowed in 7 2/3 innings of a 5-1 loss).
Finally, the Blue Jays continue to be disrespected by the oddsmakers, as evidence by the fact that they rank second in all of baseball in terms of the betting money list (only the Padres have been more profitable than Toronto).
Throw in the fact that the Blue Jays are on the following impressive runs – 5-2 versus A.L. East foes, 11-2 against right-handed starters at home, 4-0 after a day off, 5-1 on Friday, 6-2 behind Cecil this season, 6-0 when Cecil opens a series, 4-0 when Cecil pitches on Friday and 5-2 when Cecil pitches as an underdog – and I’ll cast my lot with the home pup in this one with my BIGGEST baseball play ever!
Bob Balfe
Pirates / Giants Under 7.5
Neither team puts up many runs and both pitchers in this game are capable of pitching 7 or 8 innings of low-scoring baseball. Zach Duke's last start was rained out so he has had extra rest. Look for a low-scoring game this evening. Take the Under.
Mike Lineback
Braves/Dodgers Under 8 POD
Tigers
Tigers/Royals Over 9
Phillies/Dodgers (Parlay)
JIM FEIST
20* High Roller Total: Reds/Nationals Under
Washington is a very large park, friendly to pitchers. The Nationals are 6-3 under the total their last nine home games. A pair of veteran aces take the mound here, ones who are pitching very well. Aaron Harang of the Reds has turned things around after a poor start, with a 2-0 record his last three starts, just 5 walks in 19 innings. He doesn't allow free passes, with a strong 52-15 strikeout to walk ratio. Veteran righty Livan Hernandez is having one of his best seasons, with a 2.15 ERA. He doesn't walk anyone, either. IN his 10 starts he has allowed 4 runs once, 3 runs once, and less than that in the other 8 starts. The team is 9-1 under the total in his 10 starts. Hernandez struck out four without walking a batter his last start, which is eight quality starts in 10 trips to the hill. Opponents are hitting .222 off him, meaning this total is too high. Play the Reds/Nationals Under the total
HOLLYWOOD SPORTS
25* MLB DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH
Rockies / Diamondbacks Over
Arizona (20-34) sends out Ian Kennedy who is 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA for the season. Yet despite these solid numbers, the deeper sabermetrics for Kennedy are troublesome. Kennedy has a BABIP (Batting Average for Balls In Play) for the groundballs that he is allowing of .216 -- as compared to the .261 groundball BABIP for all Diamondbacks' pitchers overall. When taking into account the Arizona defense, Kennedy's low GB BABIP suggests he has been lucky regarding where the groundballs he is allowing are actually going. Sabermetric theory argues that this figure should regress to the mean average -- which means Kennedy should see more groundball base-hits in his future. Additionally, Kennedy is allowing line-drive base-hits at a .781 clip as opposed to the MLB average of .724. We argue that allowing line-drive base-hits is attributable to the pitcher losing the battle with a hitter who successfully accomplished their goal of producing line-drive contact. This concern is consistent with Kennedy's high ISO (ISOlated power) of .195 for the season which indicates he is giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits. This is a dangerous combination with that low GB BABIP as it suggests more groundball base-hits will soon accompany these extra-base hits.
Colorado (28-25) sends out Aaron Cook who is 2-3 with a 4.91 ERA and a high 1.59 WHIP for the season. In Arizona's last 7 games against a pitcher with a WHIP over 1.35, all 7 of these games went Over the Total. Like Kennedy, Cook has a low GB BABIP of .200 for the season which is about 10% lower then the Rockies' overall .219 GB BABIP this season. This is evidence that Cook's ERA and WHIP should actually be worse then what it is so far this year. Cook's split stats worry us as well. On the road this year, Cook has a sky-high 7.04 ERA with a 1.96 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .336 -- as opposed to his significantly better 2.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .228 opponent's batting average at home in Coors Field. Cook also struggles against the Diamondbacks. In three starts in '09, Cook had a 7.09 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and allowed Arizona batters to hit him at a .393 clip. In the last 26 games Colorado has faced a team with a losing record with Cook on the mound, 19 of these games went Over the Total. The Over is 11-5-1 in Arizona's last 17 games against a right-handed starter. And the Over is 12-3-1 in the Diamondbacks last 16 home games against a team with a winning record. Together, these team trends produce our specific 49-15-2 combined winning angle for this game. In Arizona's last 5 games at home, they scored 41 runs while batting a collective .318. The linesmakers knew what they were doing in this situation as both pitchers are very vulnerable in this game. 25* NL West Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks listing both pitchers Aaron Cook and Ian Kennedy.
20* MLB TOTAL SABERMETRICS SPECIAL
Reds / Nationals Over
We don't trust Hernandez especially with a Total that has dropped to 8.5 in many locations. After compiling a 5.47 ERA in 135 innings midway through last season for the Mets, the journeyman right-hander was traded to the Nationals where he produced a 2-4 record with a 5.36 ERA in 48 2/3 innings. Not much was expected of the 35-year old this season except the hope that he would gobble up innings. Instead, Hernandez seems to have visited the fountain of youth in the offseason as he has produced a 4-3 record with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP so far in this campaign. But below the surface of these strong frontline numbers are some very troubling peripheral numbers that suggest bad times are soon to come. Hernandez's BABIP (Batting Average for Balls In Play) for the groundballs that he is allowing is an extremely low .102 -- as compared to the .227 groundball BABIP major league average. Granted, one of the reasons that the Nationals (26-29) are overachieving is their improved defense that is limiting groundball base-hits to just a .194 clip. Yet it is simply not sustainable for Hernandez to see only 1 of 10 groundballs he allows go for base-hits. Sabermetric theory argues that this figure should regress to the mean average -- Hernandez's GB BABIP number should double (at least) which will spell trouble for him. And the tide may already be turning for Hernandez as he is 0-1 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over his last three starts. Furthermore, Hernandez is 0-5 with a 6.51 ERA in his last five starts against the Reds. The Reds will likely continue to stymie Hernandez as 6 of their last 7 games against right-handed starters have gone Over the Total. Cincinnati (31-23) has a strong offense this season. They average 5.15 runs-per-game with a .275 batting average and 70 homeruns -- ranking 4th, 3rd and 3rd in the National League respectively. 6 of the Nationals' last 7 home games have gone Over the Total with Hernandez on the hill against a team with a winning record.
Cincinnati sends out Aaron Harang who is struggling with a 4-5 record with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Harang typically struggles when on the road. Last year, Harang had a 5.18 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and .324 opponent's batting average on the road versus his solid 3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .254 opponent's batting average when at home. These trends are continuing this season as Harang has an ugly 6.95 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and .355 opponent's batting average away from home while improving a bit at home with his 4.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .269 opponent's batting average in the Great American Ballpark. In the last 4 games the Reds have played a team with a losing Over is 5-1 and 5-2 for the Reds and Nationals respectively when coming off a loss. Together, these team trends produce our specific 26-5 combined winning angle. At 8.5 (or even 9), we are getting a very attractive Over/Under number given the vulnerabilities of both these pitchers. 20* MLB Total Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Washington Nationals listing both pitchers Aaron Harang and Livan Hernandez.
MR EAST
MLB FRIDAY WEST COAST WINNER
LA ANGELS @ OAKLAND A's
3 UNITS OAKLAND A's -1.5Dallas Braden has been a dynamic pitcher at home for the A's. He has worked 42 innings, allowing 10 runs, and pitching to a rock solid 2.14 ERA. The A's are finding some offense scoring 47 times in their last 9, good for 52 runs a contest. The Twin offense really struggled on the road in Seattle where they scored a single run in each of the last 3 games, all losses. The Twins road woes show just 2 runs a game over their last 7. A's dealing aces at home vs teams with a losing road record, at 21-7 in their last 28. I'll go with Oakland on the runline.
Don't know where this came from but LAA is playing Seattle tonight.
Roz Juarbe
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays
Condition: New York Yankees
Toronto lefty Brett Cecil has some great overall numbers and the team has won his last 4 starts. However, he has faced some lousy offenses: Orioles, Angels, Marines and White Sox. And the last good offense he faces, Texas, blasted him him for 8 runs in 2 innings. Now he faces the top offense in the AL in runs scored, and tops in on base percentage. He has pitched 8 innings against the Bronx Bombers....and has an ERA of 11.25, giving up 16 hits. A.J. Burnett (6-2, 3.28 ERA) faces his old team and has been sharp all year, fanning 17 in his last three starts (19 innings), just 6 walks an a 3.20 ERA. Play the NY Yankees.
MR EAST
MLB FRIDAY WEST COAST WINNER
LA ANGELS @ OAKLAND A's
3 UNITS OAKLAND A's -1.5Dallas Braden has been a dynamic pitcher at home for the A's. He has worked 42 innings, allowing 10 runs, and pitching to a rock solid 2.14 ERA. The A's are finding some offense scoring 47 times in their last 9, good for 52 runs a contest. The Twin offense really struggled on the road in Seattle where they scored a single run in each of the last 3 games, all losses. The Twins road woes show just 2 runs a game over their last 7. A's dealing aces at home vs teams with a losing road record, at 21-7 in their last 28. I'll go with Oakland on the runline.
Don't know where this came from but LAA is playing Seattle tonight.
Just a misprint on there part, they mention Twins in the writeup.
TEDDY COVERS
Angels/Mariners Over 8.5
Jacksonville Sharks +6
KELSO
50 UNIT UNDERDOG GOM Cincinnati Reds +105
15 UNIT Colorado Rockies +105
5 UNIT Chicago White Sox -1.5
3 UNIT Florida Marlins +100
Craig Davis
50* Red Sox -1.5
15* White Sox -1.5