BIG AL
Elite Info - Twins / Rays Under
OC Dooley
3* Astros +145
2* Dodgers/Padres Over 6
BOB BALFE
New York Yankees -188
The Yankees are glad to be home after a sub-par road trip and will be facing a Blue Jays team that has dropped two in a row (at home to the Indians). The Yankees are one of the best home teams in baseball and should take care of business tonight behind AJ Burnett. Take New York.
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Minnesota Twins
Lee Kostroski
8* SD +115
KELSO
25 Units Cincinnati Reds -155
15 Units Atlanta Braves -140
10 Units San Diego Padres +115
Executive
400% Arizona
Evan Altemus
3 Units Atlanta -135
Both of these teams have shown a strong difference in their home and road performance this season. Atlanta returns home after another bad road trip, but I think they will turn things around at home tonight. Routinely this season teams have returned home after a bad trip to get a win in that first game. It doesn’t hurt tonight that they have a dominant pitcher, Tim Hudson, getting the start. Hudson has been pitching better and better with each start and has pitched well against the Mets and at home. This start is setting up perfectly for Hudson, as he is getting to face a New York team that isn’t playing well right now. Even if Mets starter Johan Santana pitches well, the bullpen has an ERA of 4.41 over their last 10 games, while the Braves bullpen has an ERA of 1.85 in that same stretch. Look for the Braves return to home, better bullpen, and Hudson to be the difference.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Atlanta -135
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Johan Santana heads to the hill for the visitors; Santana is coming off a rough outing and I expect him to have another letdown here; he allowed seven runs on 13 hits with one walk over 5 2/3's innings.
Important to note here that the Mets are just 6-15 their last 21 overall; just 1-6 their last seven on the road; just 1-5 their last six on the road against Atlanta.
In the other dugout: Tim Hudson gets the nod for the home side; Hudson allowed just one run on seven hits in 7 2/3's innings against the Nats on Wednesday; he had just one walk with seven K's.
He's 11-5 with a 2.40 ERA on the year; he's already thrown seven shut out frames against the Indians on July 10th.
And not only is Atlanta 18-7 its last 25 in front of the home town crowd, its also 39-30 (+2 units) in "night games" and 25-19 (+3.7 units) following a loss.
Bottom line: The Braves are coming off a disappointing 2-1 loss to the Reds yesterday; expect a concerted effort here in their own ball park.
The Braves are a major league-best 34-13 at home, and Hudson has won six of nine starts there behind a 2.31 ERA.
The Mets are reeling after their 14-1 loss to last place Arizona yesterday.
No need to over analyze this contest; when taking all of the above into account;
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota
The Twins open a four-game series with the Rays tonight when they send ace right hander Carl Pavano to the hill at Tropicana Field in Tampa. Pavano enters tonight's game knowing he is 9-1 in his last 10 team starts, including 6-0 his last six away. He's also 16-4 in his last 20 road team starts during the month of August. With the Rays off a satisfying series with the Yankees, look for Pavano to improve to 8-4 in his career team starts against Tampa Bay tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Minnesota.
DAVID BANKS
METS + 134
BREWERS -118
CARDS -155
YANKEES
TWINS +110
A's -200
NSA
20* Yanks -190
20* Braves -145
20* Dodgers -130
Jeff Benton
15 DIME MINNESOTA TWINS
Both the Twins and Rays are scorching hot, but Minnesota is the right side here for two reasons: 1) It has the better, more experienced pitcher on the mound; and 2) Tampa Bay is in a prime letdown spot.
Let’s start with the first point: Crazy as it sounds, the Twins’ Carl Pavano has had a tremandous season, going 13-6 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Pavano has delivered a quality start in 15 of his 21 starts this season, and he’s won eight consecutive decisions and given up three earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. The right-hander finished off July by going 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in his last four outings, including two complete games. In fact, Pavano has pitched into the seventh inning in 12 of his last 13 appearances, prodeucing four complete games in his last eight.
Pavano also has solid career numbers against Tampa Bay, going 5-3 with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts. In five starts against the Rays since 2008, Pavano has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each contest.
Pitching opposite Pavano tonight is rookie Jeremy Hellickson, who is making his big-league debut. All reports suggest Hellickson is the real deal – he was 12-3 with 123 strikeouts against just 35 walks in 117 2/3 innings at Triple-A. However, how will he respond when the bright lights are on him and he’s pitching for a contender that’s just one game back of the Yankees in the A.L. East? How will he respond when facing a Twins squad that’s won 13 of its last 16 games, including eight in a row (and scored 66 runs in those eight games)?
Maybe Hellickson blocks out the pressure and confounds the Twins’ offense, but I’m betting on the opposite happening. As for the letdown situation, Tampa Bay just took two of three from the Yankees this weekend to close that gap in the A.L. East race. After such an important, high-pressure series over the weekend, don’t be surprised if the Rays aren’t exactly 100 percent focused on tonight’s contest. And keep this in mind, too: While Tampa Bay has been surging – it is 19-6 in its last 25 games – it has done it mostly with pitching. The Rays have allowed three runs or fewer in eight of their last 10 games, but they’ve been held to four runs or fewer in seven of those 10 contests (including the last four in a row).
With Pavano going tonight, it’s doubrful that the Rays’ offense is suddenly going to wake up and explode for six runs or more. That puts even more pressure on this rookie Hellickson in his first major-league start.
In addition to going 13-3 in its last 16 games, Minnesota has won five straight and six of seven on the road. The Twins are also 6-0 in Pavano’s last six road starts and 7-2 in his last nine as a road underdog.