Free Picks : Premium Service Plays for Monday August 3, 2009

Chris Jordan

300♦ TIGERS RUN LINE (LIST Verlander over Tillman) - Yep, I know, the biggest favorite on the board. But sometimes you have to simply say what the hell, and lay a price and the run line. The oddsmakers are telling you who the favorite is, and who should win this game, nd quite frankly, when you have a team coming in after giving up 18 runs, and now hve to travel to play a team hungry to keep pace in an always competitive American League Central ... well, you get the point.
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Eight different players had multiple hits for the Red Sox, who pummeled the Orioles 18-10 on Sunday, as Boston pounded out 23 hits and led 14-6 after four innings. The Red Sox outscored Baltimore 28-15 in completing their first three-game sweep on the road since June 2-4, ironically, right here in Detroit. The O’s are now 2-11 against the Red Sox this season, and they’re going to be so dejected after a loss like that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the O’s give up another double-digit figure.
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Even if the beat-down is coming from Detroit, which was humiliated yesterday, 11-1, by the lowly Indians. That loss makes me love this one even more. The loss dropped Detroit to 23-33 on the road, the worst mark of any first-place team, but since it’s playing 13 of its next 17 at home, this is the perfect jumping-off point to gain some momentum.
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Let’s get to the biggest culprit tonight, that being Justin Verlander. To help his Tigers maintain and possibly increase that 1-1/2-game edge over the White Sox, Verlander comes into this one on a 4-1 run and with a 2.00 ERA in his last five starts, in which he’s recorded 42 strikeouts over 36 innings.
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The right-hander is sporting an American League-best 172 strikeouts and needs just 12 to surpass his career high set in 2007. Don’t be surprised if he gets it against the Orioles, who hve lost 12 of 16 after being swept by the Crimson Hose.
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Verlander is 4-0 and has a 1.85 ERA against the Orioles, who are the junior circuit’s worst road team at 16-34 and have lost seven of their last nine away from Camden Yards.
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Lay the run line here and bank on Verlander over Chris Tillman, who made his major league debut Wednesday, when he gave up three runs - all on solo homers – in a 7-3 win over Kansas City. This one won’t be so easy. All Tigers.

David Banks
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TB Rays
Pitt Pirates
SF Giants (BEST BET)
Atl. Braves
Oak. A's

CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
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Chicago Cubs -138 (POD)
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San Francisco Giants -134
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Kansas City Royals +125

Dominic Fazzini

20 Dime -- TIGERS (Verlander) -1 1/2 runs over Orioles (Tillman)
15 Dime -- DODGERS (Kershaw) -1 1/2 runs over Brewers (Parra)
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TIGERS

NOTE: List only Verlander as Detroit's starting pitcher

Tigers starter Justin Verlander (12-5, 3.16 ERA) has been unreal at home this season, going 7-0 with a 1.15 ERA in nine starts at Comerica Park.
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But Verlander has been sharp just about everywhere he's pitched recently, having gone 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 36 innings over his last five outings.

The hard-throwing right-hander, who allowed four runs (three earned) and six hits in seven innings Wednesday at Texas, also has dominated the Orioles in his career. Verlander is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA in five career starts against Baltimore.
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Orioles starter Chris Tillman (0-0, 5.79) will be making his second major league appearance today. The right-hander gave up three runs -- all on solo homers -- and seven hits in 4 2/3 innings Wednesday against Kansas City.

Not only has Verlander been sharp at home, but Detroit plays exceptionally well at Comerica, with a 31-16 record. This is not a good spot for Baltimore today. Take the Tigers on the run line.

DODGERS
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NOTE: List only Kershaw as Los Angeles' starting pitcher

Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 2.76 ERA) is coming into his own.

The left-hander is 5-0 with a 0.79 ERA over his last nine starts, and he pitched eight scoreless innings Wednesday at St. Louis. It was the fifth time in nine outings he has held the opposition scoreless.

Brewers starter Manny Parra (5-8, 6.50) has been anything but sharp this year. The lefty gave up five runs and nine hits in six innings against Washington in his last outing, and gave up four runs and 10 hits in five innings vs. Cincinnati in the start before that.
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Milwaukee is 3-10 in Parra's last 13 road starts, 7-19 in its last 26 games in Los Angeles and 0-4 in its last four games against southpaws. Meanwhile the Dodgers at 18-11 against lefties this year, and 34-17 at home. Those numbers don't add up very well for the Brewers. Take the Dodgers on the run line in this one.

Power Play Wins
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Royals / Rays Under 8
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Detroit Tigers -1.5
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Arizona Diamondbacks -175
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Chicago Cubs -139
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Pittsburgh Pirates -140
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San Francisco Giants -132
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Texas Rangers +110
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Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
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Atlanta Braves -118

igz1 sports
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3* Chicago Cubs RL -1.5 (+110)
3* San Francisco RL -1.5 (+115)
3* LA Dodgers RL -1.5 (+100)
3* Kansas City vs Tampa Bay Under 8

Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play Kansas City (+125) over Tampa Bay (MLB TOP PLAY)
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Kansas City has won 16 of the last 22 games when playing on a Monday and they have also won 27 of the last 44 games as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Zack Greinke has won 7 of the last 9 games as a road underdog of +100 to +125 and he has an ERA of 1.80 over the last 3 starts. Scott Kazmir has an ERA of 8.16 in home games this season.

100* Play Pittsburgh (-140) over Washington (MLB TOP PLAY)
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Washington has lost 4 of the last 5 games and they have also lost 23 of the last 30 games as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Washington has lost 29 of the last 38 road games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and Garret Mock is 0-4 in all games this season with an ERA of 7.09.

100* Play Arizona (-185) over NY Mets (MLB BONUS PLAY)
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Arizona has won 3 of the last 4 games and they have also won 12 of the last 16 games as a favorite of -150 or higher. Dan Haren has won 7 of the last 9 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 points and he is 5-1 in road games this season with an ERA of 2.22.

50* Play Chicago Cubs (-135) over Cincinnati (MLB TOP PLAY)
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Cincinnati has lost 12 of the last 13 games and they have also lost 19 of the last 28 games as an underdog of +125 to +175. Aaron Harang has lost 10 of the last 14 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is also 0-3 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.30.

BEN BURNS
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AL West GOY
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I'm playing on OAKLAND. I really like the A's in this spot. The fact that the game is being played at Oakland is very important. For starters, the A's played here yesterday afternoon. The Rangers played a night game at Arlington and then had to travel. In theory, that should make the A's a little "fresher" for tonight's game. Additionally, like most teams, both these squads are better at home, particularly Texas. The Rangers are great at home but they've hit just .237 on the road, averaging only 4.2 runs. The fact that Oakland lost yesterday and Texas won doesn't bother me, either. If anything, that should provide the A's with some added motivation here. Most importantly, I also feel the pitching matchup favors Oakland.
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Brett Anderson has been very solid of late. His last three starts came against the likes of the~ Angels, Yankees and Red Sox, currently the top three teams in the American League. Despite the tough opposition, Anderson went 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in those games, averaging nearly seven innings per start. Looking back a bit further and we find Anderson is 3-1 with a superb 1.85 ERA in his last six starts. During that stretch, the rookie southpaw has 40 K's in 39 innings and is limiting opponents to a mere .173 batting average. For the season, he has a respectable 4.01 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in seven home starts, averaging better than six innings in those starts.
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Dustin Nippert goes for the Rangers (due to an injury to Millwood) and he's got an ugly 7.36 ERA and 2.044 WHIP in his two road starts. He didn't last four complete innings in either of those starts.
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With the total currently holding at 8.5, note that the Rangers are a money-burning 4-10 (-4.6) this season when playing a game with a total of either eight or 8.5. On the other hand, even with yesterday's loss (total dropped from 9 to 8.5) the A's are still above .500 (21-20) in that situation, earning a modest profit.
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While they've had trouble at Texas, the A's have won three of their last four home meetings with the Rangers. I expect them to provide Anderson some run support and look for them to start the series with a much-needed victory. *AL West GOY

Robert Ferringo

Take L.A. Dodgers (-1.5) over Milwaukee

Take Atlanta over San Diego

Today's Totals

Take ‘Over’ 8.0 Milwaukee at L.A. Dodgers

Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Atlanta at San Diego

Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati

Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Texas at Oakland

Craig Davis

40 DIME - TIGERS (With Verlander) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over ORIOLES (With Tillman)

Jake Timlin

400♦ Chicago Cubs (Action)

Charlie Sports

mlb. cubs @ reds under 8' runs & arizona @ mets under 7' runs( 500* 2 team parlay).
mlb. oakland-125 (30*)
mlb. kc @ tampa bay under 8 runs (20*)
mlb. astros+135 (20*)
mlb. atlanta-125 (10*)

mlb. kansas city+130 (10*) free play

IndianCowboy

4 Unit Play.
Take Under 7.5 between the Braves @ Padres

Kenshin Kawakami got shelled against Florida in his last contest as he gave up six runs in less than five innings. As the Braves are still in the playoff hunt, he will look to rebound and have a positive start today. Kenshin had pitched seveeral quality starts in a row prior to this as bear in mind he had given up a total of just 4 runs in less than about 18 innings prior to his start in Florida - a divsion rival he fail to produce a quality start against. Latos is a young kid from Alexandria, Virginia that has pitched very well thus far giving up five runs in less than seventeen innings. He consequently possesses a 2-1 record with a 2.7era. He went 2-0 on the road at Colorado and at Washington but did not win his contest at home. I look for him to have a quality start today at home in San Diego - and bear in mind, this is the Braves first look at him as well which works to his favor. The Under is 4-1 when Kenshin gives up five or more runs in his previous game and the Under is 7-0 for the Padres when the total is set this low.

Good luck,
IC

Eddie Roman

$10,000 MLB Underdog of the Month
SAN DIEGO PADRES +115 W/ MATOS
over ATLANTA W/ KAWAKAMI

$5000 AL West Game of the Week
OAKLAND A'S -120 W/ ANDERSON
over TEXAS W/ NIPPERT

Write Up
Eddie Rom
$10,000 MLB Near Even Money Lock of the Month

$10,000 MLB Near Even Money Lock of the Week
SAN DIEGO PADRES +100 W/ MATOS over ATLANTA W/ KAWAKAMI
When I released this play early in the morning, San Diego was +115, even +120 in some places. As of 1:30 pm est the line has moved dramatically and now they are +100 to -105 so I apologize to all for naming this my underdog of the month, however, I cannot control line shifts of this magnitude. It's also why I changed the name of the game because I didn't want to hear anyone crying that I stiffed them.
And as for the line shift, it's probably right because they valued Atlanta way to high today. Here's a team that played the late ESPN game last night, a game which didn't end until 11:30 pm est and then they had to catch a charter for a 5 to 6 hour flight to the West Coast without the benefit of a day off plus they have to deal with Jet Lag.
Matos has been very good for the Padres and the Braves aren't familiar with this kids stuff so they could struggle against him tonight. It's not like Atlanta is a good hitting team to begin with them coming off a 3 game series in which they had just 18 hits.
I haven't like Kawakami all year long and on the road he has had some struggles as he sports a 5.70 ERA on the highway as opposed to a 3.28 ERA at home. Look for him to struggle tonight against a San Diego team that is coming around. I did go against them yesterday as I used Milwaukee but going into that game Sunday they had won 5 straight. In this spot, I think San Diego is a great play.

$5000 AL West Game of the Week
OAKLAND A'S -120 W/ ANDERSON over TEXAS W/ NIPPERT
Oakland is a team that is 15 games worse then Texas is and this pitching match-up today isn't a huge advantage because the last time Texas saw Anderson they lit him up, yet, despite this Oakland is -120 today. Sounds like a dead giveaway to me. Oakland has to be the right side of this game as I expect Texas to struggle with the loss of Kinsler. Sometimes things are unexplainable and sometimes we have to listen to the oddsmakers, as crazy as it seems. They tell me Oakland should win this game tonight, I'm going to listen. Oakland is my secondary play.