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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Monday August 31,2009

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Dave Malinsky
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Top of the Ticket - Total
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4* CHICAGO CUBS/HOUSTON UNDER
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On a cool August evening in Wrigley with the wind blowing in, Rich Harden and Roy Oswalt have a chance to dominate the proceedings. Our key is that with Oswalt showing a 7-5/3.86 and Harden an 8-7/3.99 for the full season we are getting much more to work with than we should in terms of this Total. Injuries were factors for each of these veteran starters, and as such the numbers lag behind their form. Oswalt?s season has been interrupted a couple of times, but in his last two starts we saw the clear indications that he is getting his full strength back, not walking a single batter in holding the Diamondbacks and Cardinals to three runs over 13 innings. Meanwhile Harden has been as good as any pitcher in the game since the All Star break, sporting a 3-1/1.80 that only tells part of the story ? a commanding ratio of 60 strikeouts vs. only 25 hits allowed is about as good as it gets over that length of time (eight starts). The offenses do not get in the way here ? the Astros are averaging 2.7 runs per game on this road trip through the first six outings, while the Cubs are forced to step way up in class after facing the likes of Garrett Mock, Livan Hernandez, J. D. Martin, Patrick Misch, Bobby Parnell and Nelson Figueroa the past six games, a group that they did not distinguish themselves against anyway. And with no fatigue issues for either bullpen, the limited amount needed from them will be in good hands.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:01 am
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Fantasy Sports Gametime

50* Play NY Yankees (-170) over Baltimore
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New York has won 4 of the last 5 games and they have also won 9 of the last 12 games vs. Baltimore. Andy Pettitte has won 5 consecutive games when playing in the month of August and he is also 20-6 vs. Baltimore over his career with an ERA of 3.69.

50* Play Texas (-160) over Toronto
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Toronto has lost 5 of the last 6 games and they have also lost 12 of the last 15 road games as an underdog of +150 or higher. Brett Cecil has lost 3 consecutive games as an underdog of +125 to +175 and he is also 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 8.26.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:01 am
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Savannah Sports
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3* Minnesota +3.5

Eric Degarde
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3* Chicago WS +100
3* Kansas City +120

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:03 am
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Dominic Fazzini

10 Dime -- MARLINS (Johnson) -1 1/2 runs over Braves (Kawakami)
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Heading into one of the biggest series of the season for both the Braves and Marlins, Florida has exactly who it wants on the mound today.

Marlins ace Josh Johnson (13-3, 3.04 ERA) is 6-1 with a 3.58 ERA in his last eight starts. The right-hander allowed three runs and nine hits with seven strikeouts in six innings Wednesday to beat the Mets 5-3.
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Johnson wasn't at his best in that outing, and that's what makes it so impressive. If he can throw a quality start without his best stuff, he'll probably shut down Atlanta's offense today if he's on his game. He is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts vs. the Braves in the past two seasons.

Tim Hudson originally was scheduled to start for Atlanta, but he has been pushed back to Tuesday, making way for Kenshin Kawakami (6-10, 4.08) to get the ball today.

Kawakami is probably finished in the rotation once Hudson gets back in the mix after coming off of the disabled list. Kawakami gave up four runs and seven hits in 5 1/3 innings Wednesday in a 12-5 loss to San Diego.
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The rookie right-hander is 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in two outings against Florida this year, and 4-5 with a 4.54 ERA in 12 road starts.

Johnson is 7-1 with a 2.26 ERA in 13 outings at Land Shark Stadium this season. With the two NL East rivals in the hunt for the wild-card spot, I expect the All-Star hurler to come up with a big game against Atlanta. Take the Marlins on the run line tonight.

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:04 am
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Anthony Redd
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25 Dime Texans

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:05 am
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igz1 sports
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3* Minnesota vs Houston Over 38.5

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:05 am
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Tim Trushel

20* Oakland

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:20 am
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Craig Davis

30 DIME - WHITE SOX (With Floyd and Blackburn as listed pitchers)

10 DIME - Vikings - Texans UNDER
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WHITE SOX ---- I realize I'm tempting fate here, but I have a feeling the White Sox will pull it together in Minnesota tonight. After a dreadful series (being swept) in New York, preceded by a terrible series in Boston (losing 3 of 4), the White Sox can only go up. They've watched as the Twins and Tigers have been winning over the weekend and are in danger of falling too far out of the Central race if they don't get their act together... starting with this series in Minnesota.

The Twins did a nice job against the Rangers, finishing the series with an impressive 5-3 win over the Rangers by scoring 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th. For the first time in a long time, the White Sox are now looking UP at the Twins from the third place position in the AL Central, but they're only 1.5 games behind the Twinkies and with a couple of road wins, they could be right back on top and once again focusing on chasing the Tigers for the division lead.
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Chicago sends Gavin Floyd (10-8, 3.95 ERA) to the hill this evening in an attempt to stop the bleeding, having pitched very well in his last road start (6.2 IP, 2 ERs in Boston). Floyd has 8 career starts vs. Minnesota in his career, and although his ERA is higher than he'd probably like (4.19), his W/L record is 4-3 and he beat them the last time he faced them.

Minnesota counters with Nick Blackburn (8-9, 4.29 ERA), and although he's not pitching as poorly as he did in July, I still wouldn't consider him "back to form". He hasn't allowed less than 3 earned runs in his last four starts and allowed 9 hits and 4 runs in his last home start vs. lowly Baltimore. At even money with a better starter on the hill, my money is on the White Sox to end this losing skid and get back to respectability.

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VIKINGS/TEXANS UNDER --- Let's be honest... Brett Favre still isn't ready to play a full four quarters in the NFL... at least not yet. Shoot, if last week's performance is any indication, he might not be ready to play two quarters. Favre is still learning the playbook, learning the ebb and flow of the offensive skill players, and trying to get himself back into game shape. Favre was 1-for-4 last week in his debut, and although I don't think he's going to be quite that bad in this game, I'm still not expecting 200 yards and two TDs. Remember, this is a run-first team that wants to play ball-control offense in an attempt to keep their own defense off the field as much as possible.

The Vikings have already played two pre-season games in 2009 and have scored a combined 30 points in those two games. Ironically, the Texans have also played two pre-season games and have scored a combined 30 points. Folks, I'm not looking for a shootout tonight as I believe the emphasis will be on defense. Houston was torched for 38 points in a 24-drubbing at the hands of the New Orleans Saints last week. I expect Gary Kubiak and his staff to do whatever they can to stop Adrian Peterson and/or Brett Favre tonight, including several new blitz packages that they've installed.
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As for Houston's offense, they still want to get a better look at the backups and third teamers, so even though the starters are expected to go until halftime, I wouldn't be surprised to see the backups sprinkled in with the starters much of that first half. I'm expecting a few quick scores, but in the end the defenses will take over and the final score will be somewhere around 17-13

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:22 am
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HalfBets

8* Astros +140

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:23 am
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Trace Adams

1000* - White Sox w/Floyd over Blackburn
500* - NY Yankees-Baltimore OVER (Pettitte vs. Guthrie)

The White Sox road trip from hell continues tonight, but after losing 3 of 4 in Boston, and all 3 in New York, I expect the Pale Hose to open tonight's big Central Division series with the win over the Twins.

Minnesota is now ahead of Chicago in the standings, so this is a key series for both clubs with just around 30 games left in the season.

I don't trust Nick Blackburn at all, as the Twins righty has lost his way, going 0-5 over his last 8 season starts. The last time Blackburn notched a win was way back on July 10th, and the Twins are just 1-7 in those 8 starts.

Gavin Floyd has cooled off a little, but a look at his splits shows 2 earned runs or less allowed in 5 of his last 7 starts, and he is also 4-0 the last 5 times he has started against Minnesota.

The White Sox have not done well in the Metrodome, losing 14 of their last 16 there, but tonight is the night they do something about it.

Take the Sox.

1000♦ - White Sox w/Floyd over Blackburn

Andy Pettitte has had a great month of August, and while I expect him to end the month with another "W", I have a feeling that tonight he is going to give up a few runs to the Orioles.

Baltimore has scored 5 runs or more in 4 of their last 6 games, so you can assume they are going to be around that mark this Monday night.

As for Orioles starter Jeremy Guthrie, he has thrown well in his last 2 starts, allowing just 2 earned runs in his last 14 innings of work.

Problem is, those 2 starts only lowered his season ERA to 5.26, and in 3 starts against the Yanks this year, he has allowed 11 runs in 19 innings of work.

The Yankees have been slugging away of late, averaging over 7 runs per game their last 7 games, and 4 of the 6 season series meetings at Camden Yards this year have played HIGH.

I am taking the OVER in the Yankees-Orioles game this Monday night.

500♦ - NY Yankees-Baltimore OVER (Pettitte vs. Guthrie)

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:37 am
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INDIAN COWBOY
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4 Unit Play.Take Under 8.5 Kansas City Royals @ Oakland A's
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I look for Hochevar and Gonzalez both to have quality starts today. Hochevar gave up 4 runs in 7 innings in his last effort and picked up the loss to the A's in Oakland. The young man picked up the loss but of late has pitched well including back to back quality starts. I look for him to have a solid effort today in a bit of a revenge effort while Gonzalez comes off a tough outing as well. Gio comes off a loss to the Marainers but he got in trouble in a couple of spots where I believe he is improving on. Tack that on with 70% of the public favoring Oakland in this game and the juice is not all that high makes me believe that Hochevar is likely to have a competitive start today. I like the Under here as the early line movement also favors the Under. The Under is 8-2-1 for the Royals facing a lefty and the Under 7-3 for the A's when they face a pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30 of late

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:38 am
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Kiki Sports

1* Detroit

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 11:50 am
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Doc's Sports

4-Unit Play Take Texas Rangers (1.5RL +120) over Toronto Jays

Had Tampa Bay 3 units

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 12:12 pm
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RatedPicks

Washington Nationals: +135 1 units
Texas Rangers: -1.5 (+125) 2 units
Oakland Athletics: -130 2 units

Minnesota Vikings: +3.5 1 units

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 1:23 pm
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Vegas Informer

4 Unit Play. Take Minnesota -110 over Chicago White Sox

This play is all on the White Sox troubles as of late! Chicago has lost six of the first seven games on the road of an 11-game road trip. A visit to the Metrodome may not help Chicago turn things around, the Sox have lost 14 of their last 16 matchups. The White Sox are just 1-5 on the road against the Twins so far this year. Minnesota is 7-2 in their last 9 games.

2 Unit Play. Take Over 8 (-120) Atlanta at Florida

The Braves Japanese rookie (Kenshin Kawakami) is 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in two starts against Florida. We should see some offense from the Marlins tonight at home!

 
Posted : August 31, 2009 1:24 pm
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