Totals 4 U
Top Play
Cincy UNDER 9
Reg Plays
Colo UNDER 7
NYM UNDER 9.5
LAD OVER 8.5
RSox OVER 8.5
Platinum Plays
Premier Play of Day
SF
Top Play
RSox
Reg Plays
Milw
NYM
Det
Tor
CRAIG DAVIS
50 Dime Colorado Rockies -1.5
BIG AL
SF Giants Under
Boston Under
Colorado
Champ Club - Detroit
Scott Rickenbach
8* Detroit / Texas Over
Yesterday the Tigers game with the Indians snuck under the total and cost us a 3-0 sweep of our totals plays. We won’t hesitate to back the Tigers over the total again on Monday. Today, Detroit is hosting a Rangers team that brings plenty of momentum to Comerica Park after scoring 21 runs in their four games at Fenway Park and taking three of four from Boston! Playing an afternoon game on a Sunday and, as a result, having extra time to get ready for a Monday game, has benefited the Rangers offense nicely. They are 23-14 to the over in Monday games the last three seasons. The same holds true for the Tigers as they are 6-3 to the over in Monday games this season and 24-16 to the over in Monday games the last three seasons. Surprisingly, the Tigers last three games stayed under the total. Keep in mind, this was on the heels of a stretch where the Tigers had recorded just one under in a span of eight games. Note that Detroit should see their sticks bounce back tonight as they are at home where they have enjoyed amazing success this season. The Tigers are 5-1-1 to the over in their last seven games at Comerica Park.
Jeremy Bonderman of the Tigers has allowed 29 earned runs in his last 42 innings. That’s equivalent to a 6.21 ERA over his last 7 starts and it’s not surprising that the Tigers right-hander is just 3-4 in his last seven decisions. Bonderman is 2-1 in his seven career starts against the Rangers but note his 4.93 ERA and 1.60 WHIP against Texas. Also, Bonderman is 1-4 with a 5.51 ERA in his night starts this season. Bonderman will be opposed by Scott Feldman of the Rangers and he’s been struggling with consistency all season long. That’s part of the reason Feldman is 3-5 with a 5.94 ERA on the road this season. Overall, in all starts both home and away, the Rangers right-hander has been pounded at a .314 clip. Feldman comes into this start having allowed 19 earned runs on 46 hits in his last 31.2 innings of work. As you can see, Feldman has been especially hittable over his last five starts. Also, in eight games (including three starts) in his career against Detroit, Feldman is winless with a 9.00 ERA and the Tigers have pounded him at a .398 clip! The Rangers are 12-5 to the over in Feldman’s 17 starts this season! The Tigers have gone over the total in each of Bonderman’s last three starts overall and also, each of his last three home starts! Play OVER the total in Detroit as an *8* Regular Play selection.
10* Minnesota / Cleveland Over
Yesterday the Indians game with the Tigers snuck under the total and cost us a 3-0 sweep of our totals plays. We won’t hesitate to back the Indians over the total again on Monday. Today Cleveland is visiting the Twins and the Tribe has plenty of momentum after sweeping the Tigers over the weekend. Cleveland scored 21 runs in the four game sweep and they’ve continued to see players step up to make up for the absence of some key hitters in their lineup. The Indians should certainly stay hot at the plate against a struggling Scott Baker. Note that the Twins right-hander has lost three of his last four starts and he’s compiled a 6.56 ERA in the process. Additionally, the Minnesota hurler is dealing with elbow problems which, in our opinion, start to get into a pitcher’s head. He’s hoping to better after the All Star Break. He’s hoping to pitch well Monday but, invariably, injury problems for a pitcher can start to play into the mental aspect of their game as well and that is what we expect with Baker here. He’ll have trouble slowing down the Indians as their confidence is rising with each win.
Cleveland is a big road dog here but they are 15-9 (63%) to the over the last three seasons when they are a road dog of +175 to +200. Also, they’re visiting a Minnesota team that is known for crushing the ball at Target Field and the Twins are consistently pounding out overs right now. Minnesota is 12-3-2 to the over their last 17 games. Additionally, the Twins are on a long-term run of 28-15 to the over as a home favorite of -200 to -225. This run dates all the way back to 1997 and it shows how the Twins take care of business with their sticks when they are installed as a big favorite. Minnesota also is 145-116 to the over in night games the last three seasons and they are 4-1 to the over in Monday games this season. They should have no trouble with the offerings of Aaron Laffey here and the Indians starting pitcher is backed by a Cleveland bullpen that ranks among the worst in the league. As for Laffey, he’s 4-2 in his career against Minnesota but note his 4.71 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and .287 BAA versus the Twins in his career. Also, Laffey has a 6.33 ERA on the road this season and the southpaw has been rocked at a .297 in night games this season. In his career, Laffey has a 2.92 ERA in home games but a 5.93 ERA in road games. This is a huge disparity and it’s a home/road dichotomy that we will use to our advantage tonight. Look for the Twins offense to stay hot at home tonight but the Indians also will continue their recent surge as the injuries seem to have brought out the best in the players who have been stepping in. Two struggling hurlers on a muggy night in Minnesota means plenty of offense in this one. Play OVER the total in Minnesota as a *10* Top Play selection.
The Duke's Sports
Oakland (-110) for 2 Units
We're going to look for the A's to win their sixth straight behind Ben Sheets. Sheets, has been a dominant home pitcher at home since his early days in Milwaukee. The A's are 4-1 as a home favorite with him on the mound, and he is currently in good form (2.79 ERA last 3 starts). On the other hand, Matsuzaka has shown some good stuff on the road (one of reasons for "under"), but with injuries to key Red Sox hitters, we don't feel the run support for him will be there. Boston is batting just .229 this month vs righties; moreover, they're 3-7 on the road vs righty starters. And with the Red Sox at 1-6 in Matsuzakas last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in previous game, we'll look for the A's to continue their winning surge.
David Banks
Rays -172
Cardinals -119
Pirates +107
Tigers -113
White Sox -113
Giants +110
Tony George
KC / Toronto Under 9
Cecil and Davies are both in good form and neither team in this one lighting up the scoreboard. KC has went UNDER to open Monday series7 out of the last 8 times. These two teams have went 5-0 in Unders in their last 5 meetings. Both bullpens are under a 3 ERA and Toronto's bullpen has a 0.78 ERA in their last 3 games. KC has dropped 6 straight after getting hot, and will play it close to the vest at home. Davies does not get lit up early very often and both starters should see 6 innings and runs will be at a premium here tonight in KC, a game I will be at in person.
Evan Altemus
5 Units Tigers
Texas is coming off of a great road series against Boston, including a win yesterday against Boston’s best pitcher Jon Lester. As a result, there is obviously a letdown factor here since they have to travel to Detroit. The Tigers have been great at home and horrible on the road this season, and they are coming off of a very poor road series against Cleveland. Luckily they get to face Rangers starting pitcher Scott Feldman, who has really been struggling lately. Detroit has really hammered Feldman in the times they’ve faced him. Meanwhile, Tigers starter Jeremy Bonderman has pitched much better at home on the road, making this a great opportunity to back a starting pitcher who is being priced on his overall performance including road starts. Look for Bonderman to pitch fairly well tonight and Detroit’s line-up to have no problems hitting Feldman.
JEFF BENTON
30 DIME Detroit Tigers
I know the Rangers are riding high after just taking three of four at Fenway Park over the weekend to improve to 12-3 in their last 15 road games. And I know the Tigers are licking their wounds after getting swept in a four-game series at crappy Cleveland, giving them five straight losses going back to the Sunday prior to the All-Star break.
Still, to be getting Detroit at home – where it is 32-13 this season, including 17-3 in its last 20 – and with the superior starting pitcher on the hill (Jeremy Bonderman vs. Texas’ Scott Feldman) is a massive bargain that I can’t let slip by.
Yes, Bonderman has strugaled over the past month, giving up 18 runs in his last four starts covering just 22 1/3 innings. But he’s still got a 4.79 ERA for the season, which is certainly better than Feldman’s 5.32 ERA. And like his team, Bonderman has been strong at home all season, going 3-3 with a 3.63 ERA in eight starts (Detroit won five of those eight games). By compareison, Feldman is 3-5 with a 5.94 ERA on the road (and going back to last season, the Rangers have dropped eight of Feldman’s last 11 road starts).
Back on April 26, Bonderman faced the Rangers in Texas – a brutal pitcher’s park, as you know – and he led the Tigers to an 8-6 victory, giving up four runs in 5 2/3 innings. So Detroit is 5-2 in Bonderman’s seven career starts against the Rangers. On the flip side, Feldman has faced the Rangers once in each of the last three seasons – all at home – and Texas lost all three games, with Feldman posting a 9.75 ERA. That includes an 8-4 loss on April 24 this season, with Feldman giving up eight runs in 3 2/3 innings.
One more point to make about Feldman: He flat-out stinks against quality opponents, as Texas has lost his last seven starts against teams with a winning record.
Finally, get a load of this: The Rangers have dropped 11 consecutive games at Comerica Park, and they have just four wins in the last 14 meetings overall against Detroit!
Bottom line: Texas’ strong performance at Boston last weekend was quite deceiving, as the Red Sox were without a bunch of injured starters, including Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez and Jacoby Elsbury (all on the DL). And their recent 12-3 run on the road is also misleading, as eight of those wins came in interloague play versus the Astros, Marlins and Brewers, three teams way under .500. At the same time, there’s been nothing fluky about the Tigers’ success in Motown, where they’ve won 17 of their last 20
Anthony Redd
75 Dime Arizona -1.5
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Detroit Tigers -120
4 Units San Francisco Giants +105
KELSO
15 Units Colorado Rockies Under 7
10 Units Philadelphia Phillies +115
3 Units Milwaukee Brewers -115
Executive
250% Oakland
NSA
20* Florida Under 7
20* Red Sox Over 8.5
20* Blue Jays -140