Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Philadelphia (-180) over San Diego
Philadelphia pitcher, Cole Hamels has won 6 of the last 7 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he is 3-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 2.94. San Diego pitcher, Wade Leblanc has lost 3 of the last 4 games as an underdog of +150 to +200 and he is 0-3 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 9.00.
50* Play Colorado (-165) over Houston
Houston has lost 17 of the last 21 games as underdog of +125 to +175 and they have also lost 14 of the last 17 games vs. NL West Division Opponents. Wandy Rodriguez has lost 6 of the last 7 games when pitching on a Monday and he is 1-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 7.54.
EXECUTIVE
250% ARIZONA
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Houston at Colorado
Time: 8:40 PM EDT (Mon)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) RODRIGUEZ, W vs. (R) HAMMEL, J
Play: Houston (ML +150)
The Astros are obviously a lousy team, and one of their biggest disappointments to date has been the mediocre performances of Wandy Rodriguez. He's been way less than expected all season. But the lefty with the nasty hook may finally have turned the corner in his last start, as he looked much more like the Rodriguez who frustrated hitters for much of last season. Another plus for Houston here is that they're finally getting a little production from the meat of their order. The Rockies are clearly the better team and they're at home. But Jason Hammel is beatable and if Wandy has found his stuff, the Astros will be very live tonight. It's a big enough price to warrant going for the upset with the Houston side.
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Matchup: Atlanta at Arizona
Time: 9:40 PM EDT (Mon)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LOWE, D vs. (R) HAREN, D
Play: Arizona (ML -119)
The Diamondbacks are another lousy team, but most of the problems for the Snakes are centered around two major deficiencies. One is their horrendous discipline offensively, as the team is on yet another record-breaking pace for strikeouts. Secondly, their bullpen has been beyond awful far too frequently. But there are a few positives to find here. At the top of that list might well be that ace Dan Haren finally looked like a top of the rotation pitcher last time out, and I'm banking on Haren backing that effort up with another good showing tonight. Also, despite the fact that Derek Lowe is off his own outstanding start, I believe the Braves could be a bit flat coming out of a tense and tough series with the Dodgers, and before that their big sweep of the Phillies. I don't often look to lay even a small price with Arizona, but this looks like a good spot and I'll be backing the Diamondbacks tonight.
Craig Davis
30* M's/Rangers Under
JEFF BENTON
15 Dime: TEXAS RANGERS
I love Cliff Lee, but he’s never had much success pitching in Texas, there’s just no way the Mariners can be favored on the road against anyone, especially a quality hitting team like the Rangers.
Seattle has just seven wins in 24 road games this season, and when you throw in its final three roadies of 2009, the team is in a 7-20 slump on the highway. On the flip side, Texas has won 13 of its last 17 home games to improve to 20-10 at Rangers Ballpark. And the home-road splits are glaring: While the Mariners bat .237 on the road, Texas hits .294 at home; while the Mariners have a 4.46 ERA on the road (5.57 bullpen ERA), Texas has a 3.88 ERA at home (4.00 bullpen ERA).
The Rangers have owned Seattle this season, too, winning five of six meetings (those five wins came by a combined score of 26-8). In fact, the Mariners’ only win against Texas this year was a ninth-inning comeback (they trailed 3-1 and scored three runs in the ninth).
As for Lee’s history pitching in Texas, he’s given up 33 earned runs in 32 1/3 innings over six starts, posting a 9.19 ERA with the Rangers hitting .338 against him in Texas. The last two times he pitched at Rangers Ballpark, Lee gave up a combined 13 runs on 19 hits in 10 innings. And even though Lee pitched well against Texas in a game in Seattle on April 30 (three hits, no walks, eight Ks in seven shutout innings), he had nothing to show for it as the Mariners never scored in a 2-0 loss.
So why is Lee favored tonight? Two reasons: Because of his reputation, and because Texas right-hander Scott Feldman has struggled to build off a successful 2009 campaign. Feldman is 3-5 with a 5.82 ERA, but his best outing of the season came against the Mariners on April 11 when he gave up two runs (one earned) in seven innings of a 9-2 home victory. This after going 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA in four starts against Seattle last year (including two home wins when he surrendered a combined three runs and nine hits in 13 1/3 innings).
The Rangers are 4-2 in Feldman’s six home starts this year, they’ve won four straight games against left-handed starters and five straight home games vs. lefties (FYI, Texas is hitting .333 against southpaw pitching over the past 10 games). And in the last 66 Mariners-Rangers battles in the Lone Star State, Texas has come out on top 46 times!
Throw in the Mariners’ 5-18 slump against A.L. West rivals – including just losing three straight at home to the Angels over the weekend – and you gotta love Texas as a home ‘dog in this one.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
10* Rockies OVER
8* Cubs OVER
8* Boston OVER
BRUCE MARSHALL
Cardinals at Dodgers
Pick: Cardinals +140
Fortunate that the Braves could not deliver at the plate with runners in scoring position yesterday, the Dodgers might be hard-pressed to count on similar inefficiency from the Cards in tonight's series opener at the Ravine. St. Louis is hellbent to avenge a stinging loss in last October's first round of the playoffs, and might have a secret weapon tonight in rookie starter Blake Hawksworth, whom the Dodgers have never seen. With LA rookie starter Carlos Monasterios not lasting beyond five innings in any of his first four starts, expect the Redbirds to eventually get to the Dodger bullpen tonight. Play Cardinals
The Duke's Sports
LA Angels Under (8') for 2 Units
Both of tonight's starters are hitting their mark and should flourish in their respective role tonight. Scott Kazmir has not been the quality starter the Angels projected him to be after acquiring him from TB; however, Kazmir has shown spots in which he looks good, including his last two road starts.Tonight, he goes back to a ball park in which he sports a 5-2 mark with a 1.99 ERA. Oakland has hit lefties well this year but struggle vs Kazmir, and they're 0-4-1 O/U vs left handed starters. On the other hand, the red-hot Angels' bats might be cooled down by home dominant Ben Sheets who sports a 2.50 ERA at the Coliseum. The A's are 4-17 O/U at home vs a team with a winning record, and Sheets is 1-4 O/U in his last 5 at home when the 'total' is set between 7 to 8'. Kazmir is 3-7 O/U on the road and 1-5 O/U vs the ALW. We'll look for this series to go ""under" for the 5th straight time in Oakland.
SPORTBOOK GURU
1 Unit Houston +157
1 Unit San Fran +117
1 Unit Arizona -122
BEN BURNS
6* Phillies -182
The Padres won yesterday's game. However, the Phillies have still dominated them in recent seasons and I expect them to have a significant advantage for this evening's finale.
Hamels lasted only 2/3 innings in his last start and wasn't very effective over that span. However, the reason for the short outing was a rain delay, not because he got the hook. Prior to that, he'd been very sharp. Indeed, he entered that game having gone 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over his previous three starts. He's allowed four earned runs or less in 10 of his 11 starts this season, including seven straight.
While Hamels has had some issues on the road, he's been very solid at home. In five starts here, he's gone 3-1 (Phillies are 4-1) with a stellar 2.94 ERA. The Phillies are a perfect 3-0 his last three starts here. His only loss here was of the "hard luck" variety, as he allowed just two runs through eight complete innings but received no run support, taking a 2-0 loss. I don't expect lack of run support to be an issue here though. For starters, their offense has finally "woken up" the past couple of games. Additionally, they'll be facing a starting pitcher that is currently in really bad form.
Leblanc got off to a great start and still has pretty solid stats on the season. However, those numbers don't reveal how awful he's been lately. Over his last four starts, he's gone 0-4 with an ugly 6.43 ERA. Over his last three starts, he's gone 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA. He's allowed 24 hits in his last 21 innings and hasn't won since April. He's also allowed five home runs in his last in his last three starts. That was after he didn't give up a single home run in his first six starts.
Like Hamels, Leblanc has been tough at home but has had trouble on the road. In three starts away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park, he's got a dismal 6.59 ERA.
Hamels has made seven starts against the Padres and has allowed three earned runs or less in six of them. In those seven starts, he's gone 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA against them. The Phillies are 3-1 in his four home starts vs. San Diego, most recently a 9-4 victory last July.
The Padres are a money-burning 56-71 (-11.7) against southpaw starters the past few seasons. During the same stretch, the Phillies are 72-49 (+8.7) when facing a southpaw starter. Even with yesterday's extra inning loss, the Phillies are also still 15-7 the last 22 times that they hosted the Padres, including 7-1 the last eight. With Hamels getting the better of Leblanc, I expect them to bounce back and continue that series dominance here.
Power Play Wins
Atlanta
Larry Ness
Insider - Reds
Dr Baseball Guaranteed Selections
GRAND SLAM BASEBALL DOMINATOR
Oakland w/Sheets -124
Teddy Covers
Giants
Angles/A's Over
Sports Brokers Guaranteed Selections
BASEBALL LATE STEAM MAJOR WAGER
LA Dodgers w/Monaster -148