JEFFERSON - SPORTS
KC OVER 37 -125
Larry Ness
20* Total (1-0 start w/totals)
My No. 1-rated NFLX total is a 20* on Cle/GB Over at 8:00 ET. Eric Mangini takes over as the head coach of the Browns and he was 8-4 SU in preseason games with the Jets. The Browns have a real QB 'battle' in the preseason, as Derek Anderson will try and hold off Brady Quinn. Anderson was terrific in 2007 (3,787 passing yards with 29 TDs and 19 INTs / 82.5 rating) but his numbers fell way off in 2008, as he fought injuries (1,615 yards with 9 TDs and 8 INTs / 66.5 rating). I'm not completely sold on Quinn but he did show some promise in a trio of starts last season (Weeks 10-12), before his season ended with a broken finger. I expect both QBs to "work hard" while they are on the field. Mangini had not named a starter for Saturday's game as I'm writing this (Friday afternoon) but that matters little, as both QBs are expected to receive an equal amount of snaps. The Browns were an awful 19-45 (.297) from 2003-006 but then went 10-6 in 2007. Although they failed to make the postseason in '07, hopes were high heading into 2008 and the team's 4-12 finish was unacceptable (thus Mangini replacing Crennel). As for the Packers, don't blame Aaron Rodgers for last year's "fall from grace." In a very tough situation (replacing Brett Favre), Rodgers completed 63.6 percent of his passes for 4,038 yards with 28 TDs and just 13 INTs (93.8 rating). Both Jennings and Driver topped 1,000 receiving yards last year and the Green Bay passing game will be just fine in 2009. RB Ryan Grant's "coming out party" in the second half of the 2007 season was a huge reason the Pack went 13-3 that year and while he wasn't as dynamic last year, he still ran for 1,203 yards (averaged just 3.9 YPC). Green Bay was 4-3 heading into its bye week last year, then lost the next two weeks by three (in OT) at Tennessee and by one the following week at Minnesota. Green Bay beat the Bears in Week 11 by the score of 37-3 but then lost five straight games before beating the Lions in Week 17. The record will show that Green Bay lost seven of its final nine games after the team's bye week but it should be pointed out that six of those lessee came by 3 (OT), 1, 4, 3, 4 and 3 (OT) points! The Packers outscored their opponents (419-380) and outgained them (by about 17 YPG), which is hardly indicative of a 6-10 team. My point is, Green Bay could easily reverse its 2008 mark and go 10-6 in 2009. While I don't expect to see too much of Rodgers in this one, I also don't see any reason why the Packers can't move the ball vs the Cleveland defense. As for the Browns, I really like their chances of scoring 24 points or more and similar to my over call on the HOF game, I believe this game should be in the 21-to-28 point range at the half. NFLX Week 1 20* Total Cle/GB Over.
Craig Davis
50 DIME ---- RANGERS (With Holland and Penny as listed pitchers)
10 DIME ---- SEAHAWKS
TEXAS RANGERS (With Holland and Penny as listed pitchers) --- The stupid Texas bullpen cost me a perfect 3-0 sweep last night and I'm not letting them get away with it. After leading the entire game, the Rangers promptly imploded in the top of the 9th inning, allowing six runs on seven hits (thanks Frankie) and watched a 4-2 lead evaporate to the tune of an 8-4 loss. That's not going to sit well with the Rangers as they get set to battle the Sox again in Arlington. Remember, these two teams are in a heated battle for the Wild Card spot and neither team can afford to drop a game like that, so that's why I believe the Rangers are coming out with revenge on their minds. You just don't go into a place like Texas (where the Rangers are 37-22) and take a win away from the home team like that and expect not to get a battle the next time you step on the field. Texas will bring the heavy artillery tonight.
There's also a huge pitching discrepancy for Boston when comparing last night to tonight. John Lester has proven himself as an ace. The guy is one of the better left-handers in the big leagues and has been pitching quite well as of late. He did his best for 6 innings (11 Ks), but Kevin Millwood was just a little better. In the end, it didn't matter though. Tonight the Red Sox hesitantly trot out Brad Penny and hope to get at least five or six solid innings out of him. I don't see it happening. This overweight righty has really struggled recently, allowing 15 earned runs in his last 17 IP and 21 earned runs in his last 28 IP. What's interesting about Penny is the fact he's pitched 5 times at home in his last seven games, and the two roadies he's had have been some of his worst of the year. In those two contests, Penny allowed 14 hits and 11 earned runs in 11 innings of work. That's right... a 9.00 ERA in his last two road starts... and he's expected to come into a hitter's paradise like Texas and keep them down? Good luck.
For Texas, I really like what I've been seeing from this kid Derek Holland. The young lefty from Ohio doesn't have great stuff yet, but in two of his last three starts he's been as good as any pitcher in baseball. His last start was a complete game, three-hit shutout in Los Angeles. Two games before that he went 8.2 innings allowing just one run in a 7-1 win vs. Seattle. What's most impressive to me is his ability to keep his pitch count down to the point the coaches can keep him in the ball game into the 8th and 9th. After watching last night's bullpen implosion, I think this is the best thing for the Rangers. Holland is still learning and doesn't have a great season ERA (5.04), but you can't judge a young pitcher based on what he did early on... you have to look at what he's done for you lately --- and the Rangers couldn't be more happy than this. Texas has won 9 of their last 11 at home while the Red Sox have dropped eight straight road games when listed as the underdog. By the time you bet this game, the Red Sox will be the dog. Play the Texas Rangers as your top play of the day.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS --- The NFL pre-season games have been tough to predict early on, but I did nail a nice 10-dimer on the Minnesota Vikings last night and I will continue that trend with an easy winner on the Seattle Seahawks.
First things first. These two have hooked up in each of the last three pre-seasons and six of the last seven... and the 'Hawks have covered the last two and four of those six. They've come into these pre-season games primarily as the underdog and tonight is no different as we'll be getting at least 3.5 points... but more likely 4 by the time the game kicks off. I'd suggest that you hold off on placing this wager until later in the afternoon. Don't worry, you'll have plenty of time to make your wager as this game doesn't kick off until 10 pm ET. If you notice, for some reason, that this game is going in the wrong direction, bet it at +3 before it gets to +2.5 (though I don't see that happening).
Seattle will be displaying a lot of new faces, including first round draft pick Arron Curry, a linebacker who is expected to play into the third quarter. He'll be moved from linebacker to defensive end in an attempt to see what type of pass rush he can bring. He might not have a tremendous amount of success early, but when the Chargers start moving in some of their second and third stringers, Curry could have a field day. WR TJ Houshmandzadeh will also make his debut in a Seattle uniform and should play a few series with QB Matt Hasselbeck. For San Diego, we won't see much of Philip Rivers and might not see LaDainian Tomlinson or Antonio Gates, which means a lot more of Darren Sproles and even more of Jacob Hester. This game obviously means more to Seattle and new HC Jim Mora Jr. than it does San Diego and their veteran staff. Seattle not only covers this line, they win the game outright.