Jeff Benton
20 DIME: CHARGERS (plus the points vs. Cardinals) ... NOTE: Do whatever it takes to grab +3 with San Diego in this game. At the very least, if you can only find 2 1/2, buy the half point and take 3 if at all possible. Do NOT get beat buy the hook in this contest!
5 DIME: Jets-Giants UNDER the total
5 DIME: SEAHAWKS (plus the points vs. Chiefs) ... NOTE: Do whatever it takes to grab +3 with Seattle in this game. At the very least, if you can only find 2 1/2, buy the half point take 3 if at all possible. Do NOT get beat by the hook in this contest!
Chargers
Although San Diego is coming off a 17-6 victory at Arizona, the Chargers didn’t exactly look all that good. The first-string offense produced just one touchdown in a half of action, and QB Philip Rivers was planted on his backside four times. All in all, the performance – particular that of the offensive line – could not have pleased Norv Turner and the rest of the coaches. That’s why I fully expect San Diego’s starters to get an extensive look in Atlanta tonight, just as they normally do in Week 3 of the preseason.
More than that, though, I expect the Chargers, who have played things very close to the vest to this point in terms of play-calling on both sides of the ball, to do some actual game-planning and run some of the stuff that they’re going to run in the regular season. As it is, Turner has said his starters, including Rivers, should be prepared to play three full quarters. I doubt that will end up being the case, but if they play for into the latter stages of the third, I really like our chances.
After all, Atlanta coach Mike Smith committed his starters only for one half tonight, saying that “maybe” they’ll start the third quarter. If Smith is true to his word, then there’s the potential for the Chargers’ first-string units to get nearly a full quarter against the Falcons’ backups. As it is, you have to think Smith won’t expose QB Matt Ryan very long, simply because Ryan has looked fantastic through two preseason games, completing 80 percent of his throws with one TD and no INTs. Of course, Ryan did that against two pretty weak defenses (St. Louis and Detroit); tonight, he’ll be facing a physical, attacking defense that’s vastly superior to what Ryan saw the last two weeks.
By the same token, the Falcons’ defense is in for a rude awakening tonight. After facing QBs named Matthew Stafford, Daunte Culpepper, Drew Stanton, Kyle Boller, Brock Berlin and Keith Null, Atlanta will face a much tougher stable of passers in this one. It starts with Rivers, who was the NFL’s top-rated passer in 2008. And once Rivers leaves, longtime veteran backup Billy Volek will take over, and all Volek has done in two games against scrub defenses is complete 73.7 percent of his passes, average 9.9 yards per pass attempt and post a passer rating of 122.3! Even San Diego’s third-string QB (Charlie Whitehurst) has been with the team for four years.
What about the Falcons’ backup QBs behind Ryan? Well, there’s veterans D.J. Shockley and Chris Redman and rookie John Parker Wilson, who have passed for a total of 178 yards with no TDs and two INTs.
Finally, with last week’s win in Arizona, the Chargers are now on a 4-1 SU and ATS run on the road in preseason play. They’ve also won both of their Week 3 exhibition contests since Turner took over as coach. Throw in the fact we’re getting some points here – and underdogs have been killing it so far in Week 3 – and I’ll back San Diego with complete confidence.
Jets-Giants UNDER the total
Let’s start with the fact a nasty storm, one with a ton of wind, hit the Meadowlands yesterday, and it’s a storm that’s expected to linger throughout this game. So far this preseason, there have been two games played in rainy weather, both in Florida. In Week 1, the Dolphins hosted the Jaguars and won 12-9. Then on Thursday, Miami went to Tampa Bay and sloshed its way to a 10-6 victory. Obviously, both games stayed WAY under the total.
It’s easy to see why wet weather leads to low-scoring games, particularly in the preseason: The last thing a coach wants is to see a star player slip and pull a muscle or tear a hamstring and end up being sidelined for a long period of time. So you can be sure that with a wet field tonight, both Tom Coughlin and Rex Ryan will be very conservative with their play-calling, and don’t be surprised if both yank their starters earlier than they’d want to.
So now that we’ve established that we’ve got a weather advantage in this contest, let’s look at the main reason I love this play so much: These rivals meet every single summer, almost always in Week 3, and over the last eight preseasons – going back to Aug. 25, 2001 – the Jets-Giants exhibition battle has stayed under the total … eight straight times! That’s not a misprint: The under is on an 8-0 run in this preseason rivalry. Here are the final scores in those eight contests, beginning with the 2001 clash: 17-14, 28-7, 15-14, 17-10, 15-14, 13-7, 20-12, 10-7. Not one of those games hit tonight’s posted total, which sits at around 36.
Not only have the last eight meetings between these teams gone under, but the Giants have played to the under in nine of their last 14 preseason contests overall, including a 17-3 dud in Chicago last week. Guys, if the weather forest holds, we’re going to see a lot of straight-ahead running by both offenses and very little passing. As a result we seriously could be looking at a game in which the first one to 14 wins – if that! Play this one UNDER the total.
Seahawks
Think that 8-0 “under” trend in the Giants-Jets preseason series is impressive? It’s nothing compared to this: By winning their first two games of the preseason in pretty convincing fashion – 20-14 at the Chargers in Week 1 and 27-13 over Denver at home in Week 2 – the Seattle Seahawks have now covered the pointspread in eight consecutive preseason games. With the upset win in San Diego, Seattle has also won eight of its last 11 preseason road contests, going 9-2 ATS, and it is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 when catching points in August.
That’s not all. The Seahawks have been a strong bet-on team in the all-important Week 3 dress rehearsal, going 5-1 SU and ATS the last six summers.
On the flip side of the coin are the Chiefs. Going back to 2004, they’ve lost 17 of their last 22 preseason games, going 4-18 ATS – that’s right: 4-18 versus the number. Kansas City has failed to cover in five straight preseason home games (losing four of them outright), and it was favored in each of those contests at Arrowhead Stadium. And when it comes to Week 3 with the Chiefs, I’ve got one word for you: UGLY! While the Seahawks have won and covered five of their last six in Week 3, Kansas City has gone 1-5 SU and ATS in Week 3 preseason action. Two summers ago, the Chiefs hosted the Saints in Week 3 and lost 30-7. Last year, they went to Miami and got walloped 24-0. I’ll do the math for you – that’s two defeats by a combined 54-7 score.
Now, maybe I’d be reluctant to make this play if Seattle looked sluggish in the first two weeks of this preseason and/or if Kansas City was clearly making strides in new coach Todd Haley’s offensive system. But, uh, neither has been the case. The Seahawks have scored 47 points in their two wins (with top QBs Matt Hasselbeck and Seneca Wallace combining to complete more than 65 percent of their passes with four TDs and no INTs). On the other hand, the Chiefs have managed just 23 points in losses to the Texans and Vikings, and new QB Matt Cassel has been mediocre at best. In fact, word out of Kansas City is that backup QB Brodie Croyle has had the best training camp of the four Chiefs passers on the roster, but guess what? Croyle almost certainly will sit this game out, as Cassel is slated to be replaced by Matt Gutierrez and Tyler Thigpen.
Simply put, I like what the Seahawks have done since the end of last season, and with Hasselbeck looking like he’s back to 100 percent healthy, I think Seattle is a big-time sleeper team this season. On the other hand, this is going to be a loooong rebuilding year for the Chiefs (1-13 in their last 14 games, including the 0-2 start to this preseason). Throw in the fact that two of the Seahawks’ recent Week 3 preseason wins have come at the expense of the Chiefs (by a combined score of 17 points), and I’m all over Seattle plus the points in this one.
Dave Cokin
NFL Pre-Season Game of the Year!
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS / ATLANTA FALCONS
Take: 10 Stars ATLANTA FALCONS
Great spot for the Falcons and I expect them to respond with a big effort. It's Atlanta's home opener, and excitement about this year's team is at a peak right now. Head coach Mike Smith has announced that he is game planning for this contest as though it's a regular season game. The regulars will play through the first half and perhaps well into the third quarter. The Chargers are very talented and I was impressed with the businesslike attitude of this team during my visit to training camp last week. But the offensive line has been very shaky and I don't see their prep for this game being quite at the same level as the Falcons. Don't minimize the coast to coast travel factor, either, as that was huge last year in the NFL. It's all systems go for the Falcons in this game and they're the choice as my NFL Pre-Season Game of the Year!
Scott Spreitzer
2009 NFL-X **GAME OF THE YEAR!**
I'm playing the Tennessee Titans, my Preseason Game of the Year. Tennessee plans on playing their healthy starters into the second half, the typical week-three approach. That means we'll see Kerry Collins in his most extensive duty of the preseason. It also means we'll see the Titans' ground game at their very best for the first time. That ground game, along with the direction of Collins, will attack a Cleveland defense that is less than healthy. We all knew about Tennessee's "Smash & Dash" backfield (LenDale White & Chris Johnson), but did you know the Titans now have a "Ringer" in the backfield? That would be rookie-RB Javon Ringer, who has all but won the third-back position over veterans Chris Henry and Quinton Ganther. The plethora of quality RBs means the Titans can keep pounding the ball right at the Browns throughout the second half, shortening the game after building a lead with the starters. It should be "Smash Mouth" football at its best. The ground game will also make things easier on Vince Young and Patrick Ramsey. And one could argue that Tennessee's second and third string QBs are better equipped to handle NFL defenses than either QB fighting for the Browns' starting job. As far as I'm concerned, you can have Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. Neither has established himself as a true NFL starting QB. And one thing we definitely know about the Browns; the players are definitely not seeing eye-to-eye with new HC Eric Mangini and staff. I had the Browns last week and cashed in a 27-10 win. But this is a much different situation, obviously, in week-three. We also have the Titans off a poorly played, 30-10 defeat in Dallas. I had the Cowboys in that one. Again, in a completely different situation. Now, with the starters butting heads, I'll side with the much more talented squad, that has nothing but respect for their coaching staff, over the dysfunctional Browns. I'm playing the Tennessee Titans, my 2009 NFL-X Game of the Year. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Michael Cannon
20 Dime – ROCKIES (With Marquis as listed pitcher)
Take the Rockies for the road win over the Giants.
Colorado needs a win.
Bad.
The Rockies have dropped three straight and their wild card lead is shrinking as a result.
The good news is they will send Jason Marquis to the mound tonight. The right-hander is one win behind C. C. Sabathia and Adam Wainwright for the league lead in wins.
Marquis is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his last three starts and has been very effective in six career starts at San Francisco, going 4-1 with a 1.97 ERA.
The Giants will counter with Barry Zito who has pitched well but can’t buy any run support from his teammates. The left-hander has received just one run of support in his last three starts and has received just four runs in four starts against Colorado in San Francisco.
The Rockies bounce back with a much-needed win tonight.
Take Colorado for the road win.
10 Dime – TITANS
Take the Titans plus the small number over the Browns tonight.
Tennessee got crushed at Dallas last week and I expect Jeff Fisher to have his troops ready for tonight. This is the last real dress rehearsal for the first-team and that’s where Tennessee is going to make its mark tonight.
The Browns are still trying to decide on a quarterback and the Titans are just going to pound the ball offensively while pressuring both Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn defensively.
Basic football is what Tennessee plays and it’s always successful against poor defensive teams like Cleveland.
Coach Jeff Fisher stated that his starters would play a little bit more than last week, and that means they will be out on the field for the start of the second half.
That’s enough for me to like the Titans here.
Grab the points with Tennessee as they get it done over Cleveland.
5 Dime – GIANTS 1ST HALF
Take the Giants minus the number for the first-half over the Jets.
I’m not sold on the Giants depth but I am sold on their first-team units on both sides of the ball and that’s why I like them for the first half bet.
The Giants offensive line is incredible and will give Brandon Jacobs and company plenty of room to run. I know the Jets brought in some good defensive players and Rex Ryan is a good defensive mind, but the guys in the trenches are the ones that make it happen and nobody has a better unit than the Giants.
Plus you have rookie Mark Sanchez being named the starter and he’s scheduled to play the first half.
I don’t trust rookie quarterbacks whether it’s preseason or not and you saw how befuddled Sanchez was going against the Ravens defense last week.
The Giants can bring the heat on defense and that’s going to make it tough for the rookie to accomplish anything tonight.
Take the Giants for the first half over the Jets.
Tony Weston
30 Dime Saints
10 Dime Cowboys
Saints at Raiders
SAINTS - So far in the preseason no team has looked as good as the New Orleans Saints. After beating up on Cincinnati in the preseason opener, winning 17-7 as a 3-point favorite, the Saints destroyed the Texans in Houston 38-14 as a 3-point underdog.
Today, the Saints are on the road once again where they’re laying 2 1/2 points at the Raiders and will cruise to an easy victory.
New Orleans comes into this game having gone a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in road games in August and is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in preseason Week 3 games. Over the last two seasons the Saints have outscored their opponents in Week 3 by a combined 43-7.
Now they battle a Raiders team that has won and covered in only 2 of their last 6 Week 3 preseason games. Oakland is also just 2-4 ATS its last 6 preseason games when installed as an underdog.
Things won’t get any better today as the Saints cruise to an easy win in Oakland.
49ers at Cowboys
COWBOYS - You want to talk about dominance? Then you want to talk about the Dallas Cowboys playing at home in the preseason.
Over their last 12 home preseason games since 2003, the Cowboys are 11-0-1 SU and 9-3 ATS. Under current coach Wade Phillips, Dallas has gone a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.
Tonight, they’ll cash in once again against the visiting San Francisco 49ers.
Dallas enters the game laying about 7 points, depending on where you’re playing this, but it won’t matter.
San Francisco comes into this game having failed to cover in each of its last three preseason games and is a horrible 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS its last 11 preseason games on the road.
This will be the Niners’ first roadie of this preseason and despite being 2-0 SU the team is 0-2 ATS.
Dallas is coming off an impressive 30-10 victory last week at home against the Titans as a 3 1/2 point favorite and will dominate once again tonight. Lay the points and take the Cowboys at home.
Scott Delaney
5-Dime Marlins -1' Runs
5-Dime Tennessee Titans
5-Dime San Francisco 49ers
Trace Adams
1000* - Texas w/Feldman over Pavano, 500* - LA Dodgers RUN LINE (Haeger vs. Maloney), 500* - Atlanta
Brutal loss for the Rangers last night, as Both the Angels, and the Red Sox notched wins.
I expect Texas to bounce-back with the "W" tonight, as they are 7-2 their last 9 games following a loss, and starter Scott Feldman has been dealing nasty of late, and he is a blistering 9-1 on the road this season with an ERA of 2.97!
Carl Pavano will counter, and while he has had a successful comeback season, the fact remains his season ERA is still over 5 for the year.
The Texas bats were quiet last night, tonight they wake up and get a much-needed win to cool down the surging Twinks.
1000♦ - Texas w/Feldman over Pavano
The Reds took down the Dodgers last night, but today knuckleballer Charlie Haeger will baffle the Cincy bats, and LA will cruise to an easy win.
Haeger has worked 14 innings for the Dodgers in the starting rotation, and is 1-0 with 3 earned runs allowed.
I can see him tossing 6 or 7 shutout frames today, and the LA bats exposing Matt Maloney who is making his 1st start since the middle of June. His last call-up to the big club did not go so well, as Maloney went 0-2 over 3 starts with an over 6 ERA.
Even with the Dodgers loss last night, they are still 23-6 their last 29 games played against the Red-Legs.
I am taking the Dodgers on the RUN LINE in this one!
500♦ - LA Dodgers RUN LINE PLAY (Haeger vs. Maloney) - 4:10 pm
Preseason NFL for Saturday night, and this one is all about the scheduling!
You cannot tell me the Chargers who have played at home, and have played close to home at Arizona last week, and will be at home next Friday night for a date with the 49ers want any part of being on the field this Saturday night in Atlanta!!!
As for the Falcons, they have played at Detroit, and at St. Louis, a pair of teams with new head coaches looking to make statements. Now Atlanta comes back home for their home opener this evening, and will also close at home against Baltimore.
I have a feeling the Falcons will be ready to soar in this spot in front of a fan base that is sure to be excited for this upcoming season after the promise new coach Mike Smith, and the team showed last regular season.
It also helps that Atlanta is on a 3-1 spread run the last 2 preseason's at home.
Take the Falcons.
500♦ - Atlanta Falcons
Karl Garrett
20 DIMER - SAN FRANCISCO (Zito over Marquis)
10 DIMERS - TEXAS (Feldman over Pavano), &KANSAS CITY
20 DIMER - SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (Zito over Marquis)
Momentum is only as strong as your next day's starter. That's how the old saying goes, and right now, I am liking the momentum Barry Zito brings into this home start for San Francisco.
Zito just battled Colorado starter Jason Marquis his last time out, and went 6 scoreless. Marquis worked 8, and allowed 1 run. Neither factored in the decision.
Zito's last 12 innings have been SCORELESS, and I think he has a few more in his bag of tricks tonight.
The Giants are a whopping 39-19 their last 58 at home, and 42-21 overall at home this season. They have also bested the Rockies in 3 of the 4 meetings this year by the bay.
Colorado has now lost 3 in a row, and it seems that momentum is not something that is in their corner right now.
Take the Giants.
10 DIMER - TEXAS RANGERS (Feldman over Pavano)
The Rangers have done a good job of late when they are playing off a loss, as they are 7-2 their last 9 games following a setback.
I like them tonight, as starter Scott Feldman has been a true "road warrior" this season, sporting a 9-1 road mark with an ERA under 3.
Feldman and Pavano just worked against each other on the 15th in Arlington, and both were knocked off the mound early in that start.
For the season, Pavano sports an over 5 ERA. Minny has been resurgent of late, but my money is on Feldman, and that 9-1 road mark.
Take the Rangers in this one to bounce back.
10 DIMER - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
If there was ever such a thing as a "must win" in the preseason, this is it for the Chiefs.
Kansas City hasn't shown much this preseason, dropping both of their games, while scoring only 23-points. On the bright side, the Chiefs have allowed just 33-points in their pair of losses under new coach Todd Haley.
Tonight is the night Kansas City breaks the scneid, as this will be their last preseason home game, and I expect them to have their way against a Seattle team that has looked tip-top this August, winning and covering both of their preseason clashes.
Look for the Seahawks to give little resistence in this one this evening, and for KC to get the win and cover.
Jim Feist
Week 3 5-Star Preseason Shocker
BALTIMORE RAVENS VS CAROLINA PANTHERS
Take: BALTIMORE RAVENS - 5*
The starters play the most in Week 3, and no one wants to face this Baltimore starting defense. The Panthers have injuries, problems at stopping the run, plus turnovers. The Panthers have fumbled 10 times in their first two exhibitions, losses against the New York Giants (six) and Miami Dolphins (four). They've lost five of them. Carolina Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams has a "sore knee" and is likely out. Worse, the Carolina defense has been soft up front, allowing 139 and 141 yards rushing in two games. It's been another week of bad news for the Panthers' defense. As they prepare for their third preseason exhibition, the Panthers have learned they'll be without linebacker Jon Beason (sprained knee) and safety Charles Godfrey (broken hand) for an indefinite period. Nose tackle Maake Kemoeatu (torn Achilles) has already been lost for the season. The wrong team opened as the favorite. Play the Ravens.
Jefferson-Sports
TENNESSEE +3 -140 7 units
TENNESSEE +2 or +1 5 units
Pointwise Phones
3* Denver
2* San Fran
Kelso
50 units New York Giants
Northcoast
3* Falcons -2.5 -120
3* Titans +2.5
MR EAST
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Tennessee Titans @ Tennesse Titans
3 units Tennessee Titans +2.5
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The Tennessee Titans have 2 solid QB's that should get most of the minutes in this one, as well as a top rated defense that will get a lot of time on the field here as well. The Cleveland Browns face a lot of negative preseason indicators for this game, as Tennessee is coming in here with 3 of my top rated ATS systems pointing to them, with each shoing a better than 60% chance that Tennessee covers this game. Jeff Fisher, unlike many coaches, has shown a propensity to not only play these games, but to win them, and I'm going with Tennessee in this one.
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San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
5 units San Francisco 49ers +7
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The Dallas Cowboys will host the San Francisco 49ers in week 3 of the preseason. There is one thing clear about the 49ers under coach Mike Singletary, they play hard, regardless of the game situation. He is very intense, and even in the preseason he takes on a winning attitude. That becomes a dangerous situation for teams laying a TD in an exhibition game, and history shows, when teams come into a game 2-0 as a big dog they very often deliver the cash. teams that have won 2 consecutive games entering here as a dog of 3.5-10 have gone 23-4 ATS since 1993, and have played their opponents basically even, being outscored by just a half-point a game in the 27 games. Teams getting 6 or more points in the NFLX are covring over 60% of the time since 1996. teams that have 2 or more wins in the NFLX, vs teams with exactly 1 win have covered the spread 70% of the time the last 12 years as well. Away dogs have covered 65% of over 115 games coming into the game with 2 wins. I like San Francisco in this one, and it is my NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR
Chris Jordan
200♦ N.Y. GIANTS (buy the hook down to -3 if your book has the line at 3-1/2) - I’m not sold on the reclamation project with the Fly Boys. I am sold on the giant step the 2008 Super Bowl champs will take this season, and feel their much better than what is being discussed.
This is a well-rounded, deep lineup the Giants boast, and the fact is head coach Tom Coughlin has always stressed defense when it comes to winning in the regular season. Thus, the loss of Plaxico Burress, as worrisome as it may seem, is nothing to be alarmed about when there is plenty of talent on this team. Not to mention when there is plenty of defense to give the offense ample opportunity to put points on the board.
And this is one week Coughlin takes as serious as the regular season, even more so than the ‘Week 3 theory’ that everyone plays more time. The Giants leave everything on the field; and against the Jets, I have faith Big Blue is going to be bringing that suffocating defensive front to thwart rookie Mark Sanchez.
I know the Giants are dealing with injuries and will be without the likes of Canty, Alford, Pierce and Ross, but the way the Ravens were able to rattle the USC grad with their strong pass rush, I expect the Giants’ defensive line to do the same thing to force errant passes.
And when the Giants do get the ball, it’ll be a chess match, as the Giants will look to run the ball and creep systematically up field, wearing down the Jets’ defense, while eating time and picking the right spots for the Eli Manning to strike.
This matchup has typically stayed under – four straight years now – so if you’d like to play that as a comp play, go ahead. My play is on the Giants because for as good a defensive coach as Rex Ryan may be, I don’t think he knows what he’s in store for against this offense.
I’m all over the Giants tonight, and don’t forget if your book has a 3-1/2, buy it down to -3. Most books, however, are sitting at -3. This is why it’s important to shop your number all the time.