Tony George
Colorado -135
Cannot look any other way here other than the Rockies. The Rockies stink on the road, granted, but Pitt is 2-7 their last 9 games and were wiped last night by the hot hitting Rockies. The boys from Colorado are hitting over .300 as a team and have the better starter, hitters, defense, player depth, and bullpen. As a matter of fact the Pirates bullpen has an 8.71 ERA the last 3 games, and with a starter whose record is 1-9 on the year and going to a weak bullpen, against a hot hitting team, I smell blowout all over this one. Play 2 units on Colorado.
Evan Altemus
4 Units Philadelphia -125
Both New York and Johan Santana have not played well lately. Santana hasn’t pitched as well in his last two starts compared to his shutdown stuff earlier in July. He has gone through rough stretches like this before and it doesn’t help that the Mets are slumping anyway. New York has gone 3-6 in their last 9 games, and they are 1-3 in their current road trip. The Mets bullpen has also posted a 6.53 ERA in their last 10 games, so even if Santana pitches a great game, the Mets bullpen could blow the game. In addition, Philadelphia’s best players in today’s line-up have had success against Santana. The Phillies are still dealing with injuries to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Shane Victorino, but that doesn’t matter because Philadelphia his hitting really well as a team without them. They have also won their last 5 games and 8 out of their last 10 games. They are hitting .306 as a team in their last 10 games while New York has only averaged .238. Essentially Philadelphia has the edge in momentum, hitting, starting pitching, and bullpen. Look for the Phillies to get the home win against the slumping Mets.
NSA
20* Philies -125
20* Braves -145
20* Twins -140
Al DeMarco
5 Dime Rockies
5 Dime Texas
5 Dime Yankees - 1½
Rockies
The Rockies are back on another roll, winning six of their last eight. Tonight's starter, De La Rosa, is making his sixth trip to the hill since returning from the disabled list where he spent most of the season with a finger injury. In his first two post-DL starts, he had an earned run average of 12.92. In his last three, that number is 3.51 and he's struck out 21 in 19.2 innings. One of those outings came against the Pirates July 27 at Coors. De La Rosa lost that game but pitched well, scatternng six hits and allowing three runs (two earned) over seven innings in which he fanned eight, lowering his career ERA to 2.81 in four starts against the Bucs since 2008.
Pittsburgh's Ohlendorf was knocked out of his last start against Colorado - literally - after just 2/3rds of an inning on July 28 at Coors when he was hit in the head by a line drive. His earned run average in three career starts versus the Rockies is 6.94.
The Bucs are 5-12 behind Ohlendorf this season and he is personally 1-5 in 10 home starts with a 4.56 ERA.
Texas
Texas is on a 5-1 series roll against Oakland following Friday's 5-1 victory. Today they send one-time Athletic Harden to the mound for his second start since a seven-week stint on the disabled list. His first outing was outstanding as he bested the Angels with seven innings of five-hit, one-run ball.
Harden, who was drafted by the A's and spent the first 5 1/2 years of his career with them, beat his original team in his first time facilng them earlier this year, prevailing May 3 at Oakland with seven innings of two-hit shutout ball in which he struckout nine batters.
The Rangers' power outage is seemingly over. After being held to five runs in a 1-2 stretch, they've plated 22 while winning three in a row to square their current road trip record to 4-4.
Yankees - 1½
New York's Sabathia is coming off consecutive losses at Tampa and Cleveland, but now he's back in the Bronx where's he's 12-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 17 starts since his last loss back on July 2, 2009.
Sabathia has failed to register a decision in three outings versus Boston this season, but his only home outing againat the Sox so far was the best of the trio as he held them to four hits and one run over seven innings in a May 18 outing. He had won his final three starts against Boston last year and is 3-0 with a 2.82 ERA in his last six versus New York's arch rivals overall.
Boston's Lackey was pounded by Cleveland at Fenway in his last start, getting tagged for nine hits and six earned runs in 5.1 innings. He didn't help his cause either by walking five batters in the contest.
Lackey has struggled on the road this year with a 4.25 ERA in 10 outings, allowing 101 baserunners in 65.2 innings.
The Red Sox, despite all their injuries, have managed to win eight of 11, including four in a row on the road. The Yankees, despite all their offensive firepower, have struggled to score runs of late. A reversal of fortune and a return to normalcy is called for today in the Bronx.
Anthony Redd
30 Dime Rangers
Chris Jordan
200♦ FLORIDA MARLINS -1.5
100♦ METS / PHILLIES UNDER
MARLINS -1.5
A shame what Jake Westbrook will have to endure tonight, but he’s in a complete mismatch against Josh Johnson, who is 10-4 with a 1.96 ERA, and in my opinion, is still a viable candndate for the National League Cy Young title. I know the Marlins have tallied just 11 runs while going 0-5 in August, but there’s no one better to hand the ball to, with hopes of snapping this skid.
Johnson, who is in with the lowest ERA in the majors despite struggling in his last start, comes in after allowing as many runs as he'd given up in his previous five starts combined when he gave up five in 5-2/3 innings of a 5-4 loss last Sunday in San Diego.
It was the first time in 20 starts Johnson didn't pitch at least six innings, so you best believe, in front of a home crowd, he’s going to want this one real bad. Johnson is 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA in three starts agalinst the Cardinals, who are mired in an 8-19 slide on the road against right-handed starters.
Florida, on the other hand, is in on winning runs of 9-2 after an opponent allows the Marlins two or less runs the last time out, 6-1 with Johnson on the hill and in the previous game it allowed five or more runs, 15-5 with Johnson at home against winning teams, 24-8 at home, 8-3 when he’s up on Saturdays and 5-2 when he throws against Central Division foes. This is a run line play for sure.
METS / PHILLIES UNDER
Something tells me we’re in store for a low-scoring game tonight, as Johan Santana and Cole Hamels will dazzle everyone in this pitchers’ duel.
Santana, who was throttled for 10 earned runs over four innings by the Phils back in May, is going to be out to avenge that loss, even though it was more than three months ago. This guy doesn’t forget things like that, and has this date circled – believe that! The Mets are on a 7-2 Under run when he toes the rubber on the road, where he has a stifling 2.98 ERA.
On the other side, Hamels has given up merely three earned runs in his last two outings against the Mets, spanning 13 innings for an ERA of 2.07. At home, he is 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA, while the Phils are 13-9 Under when he’s on the bump – including six of 10 at home.
For the Mets, the Under is on additianal runs of 5-2 against intradivision foes, 4-1 versus southpaws, 13-5 when they’re in off a loss, 7-3 on the road, 8-3 when Santana is up on a Saturday and 5-2 when he’s throwing on four days test.
With the Phils, the Under is on additional streaks of 8-1 against southpaws, 12-5 when Hamels is pitching on grass, 6-1 when he’s throwing on five days rest and 11-5 when he allowed five or more runs the last time out. This one stays low.
Chuck O'Brien
25 DIME GIANTS / BRAVES UNDER
15 DIME TAMPA BAY RAYS
GIANTS / BRAVES UNDER
I scored a winner with this play on Thursday, when Tim Lincecum matched up against Jair Jurrjens and the result was a 3-2 final. And this pitching matcnup may be even better. Let the numbers do the talking: San Francisco’s Matt Cain is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last four starts, going 7, 8, 7 and 7 2/3 innings, so he now has a 2.98 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP on the season. The Braves’ Tim Hudson is 12-5 with a 2.36 ERA overall, 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA in his last three starts and 7-3 with a 2.24 ERA at home. … Cain last faced Atlanta in 2008 when he made two starts and gave up a total of two runs in 13 2/3 innings, while Hudson’s last three starts against the Giants have been quality (eight runs allowed in 23 2/3 inning). … San Francisco is on “UNDER” runs of 5-1 overall, 13-5-2 with Cain starting, 6-2 with Cain pitching on the road, 19-6-1 when Cain pitches on Saturday and 42-19-2 when Cain faces winning teams. The Braves carry “UNDER” trends of 6-1 overall, 8-2 with Hudson on the mound and 5-1 when Hudson faces a winning team. … Finally, the Braves have stopped hitting, poslting a .226 batting average over a 10-game stretch leading up to Friday’s game.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
I’m banking on the fact that James Shields has turned his season around. He’s won his last three starts, and he was dynamite in the last two against the Tigers (two runs in 6 2/3 innings) and Yankees (no runs in 7 1/3 innings), striking out a combined 18 in those 14 innings. Most importantly, Shields – who surrandered 22 home runs in his first 20 starts – kept the ball in the ballpark against the Yankees and Tigers. And that will be the key today, as no team in baseball has gone deep more frequently than the Blue Jays (their 167 home runs are 24 more than second-place Boston). … Another reason to love Shields is he’s been a workhorse lately, going at least six innings in six straight starts (and into the seventh inning in the last three in a row). He’s also been an innings-eater against Toronto, going at least six frames in all 13 career starts, including pitching at least into the seventh inning 11 times. And although he’s just 6-4 in those 13 starts, he’s got a 3.57 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and the Blue Jays are batting just .239 against him. … Tampa Bay is on a 38-19 roll in this division rivalry and it is 14 games over .500 on the highway this year (33-19). The Rays also enter this game on additional positive surges of 21-9 overall, 36-17 against A.L. East foes and 14-6 against opponents with a winning record
Derek Mancini
30 Dime - Braves
Are you tempted to bet the red-hot Matt Cain (9-8, 2.98 ERA) at this price? Of course you are, as are most of bettors out there. Everyone is looking for value, but you can't ignore the obvious in the process. The obvious question is why is Hudson costing you so much more, especially matched up against Cain? And the answer is clear: oddsmakers are begging you to bet the Giants because they know the right play here is Atlanta.
Why? Well if Cain is going to vulnerable, its going to come on the road, where his ERA rises to a more beatable 3.50. Both his WHIP (1.29 away vs. 0.97 at home) and OBP (.315 away vs .254 at home) are considerably higher away from AT&T Park as well. Can't say the same about his counterpart, as Hudson (12-5, 2.36 ERA) has been a beast at Turner, going 7-3 with a 2.24 ERA. His WHIP (1.07) and OBP (.283) are both better at home. All signs are pointing to another strong effort from Hudson, and that is why he's well worth it tonight.
Neither team's offense has shown up this series, and while both hit righties well, the proof is in the pudding. In other words, Atlanta is 25-10 against right-handed starters at home this season, while the Giants are just 22-20 on the road in the same spot - home field makes a big difference, especially for Atlanta. Lastly you throw in a surging Braves bullpen (1.59 ERA L17 innings) and I'm more than willing to lay it with the home team here. Atlanta (Hudson) over San Francisco (Cain) Saturday.
Karl Garrett
20 Dime Houston
Last night the Brewers hung on for the 6-5 win to cool off the Astros, but I like the efnort the Astros have been bringing to the diamond this month, as Houston has still won 7 of their last 9 games, and they have their most consistent starter going tonight at Miller Park.
Brett Myers has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 6 straight starts, and he is 3-0 over those 6 starts, so you can assume that he will have Houston in this game all night long.
Randy Wolf is just 7-9 with a season ERA near 5 this year, and you have to keep in mind that Wolfman left his last start - which came against Houston - after getlting hit by a line drive on his wrist, so that is a situation that bears keeping an eye on.
Milwaukee was just swept at Houston last week, and have only won 3 of their last 9 games overall. The Brewers are also just 4-6 in the season series versus the Astros this year.
Nice value with Myers and the undardog 'Stros, and the G-Man will grab them as my top dog.
10 Dime Colorado
Rockies dumped the Pirates 6-3 last night, and now get to face the 1-9 Russ Ohlendorf.
Colorado has claimed wins in 6 of their last 8, while Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 9.
G-Man gets the feeling the NL West is still a wide open race, and if the Rockies want to keep climbing in the standings, then they had better take care of a Pittsburgh team that has won just 38 games thus far this season.
Jorge De la Rosa has been turning in some nice work, and he is looking to avenge a tough loss he suffered 2 starts ago at home when he held the Pirates to just 2 runs in 7 innings but wound up on the short side.
De la Rosa to get his revenge, as the Rockies rock the Pirates
Michael Cannon
20 Dime Phillies
Philadelphia has won five straight overall and have won 12 straight at home.
I know the Mets have Johan Santana starting tonight, but he’s been off recently. The left-hander has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts, a span of 12 2-3 innings. Santana was roughed up at Philly back in early May when he allowed a career-high 10 runs in 3 2-3 innings.
The Phillies will counter with Cole Hamels, who hasn’t recorded a decision in four outings since the All-Star break, but Philly as a team has won them all. The left-hander is 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park.
Philly’s offense has been so strong recently I can’t fade them at home.
Take the Phillies as they grab the home win
Stephen Nover
35 Dime St. Louis Cardinals
Yes, Josh Johnson is pitching at home for Florida. But the Marlins don't deserve to be such a high favorite even with Johnson on the mound.
Florida is in a horrible tailspln right now having lost all five of their games this month. They are averaging 2.2 runs during this time span.
The Marlins' best hitters are either slumping, injured or in the American League. Hanley Ramirez is 5-for-30 in his last eight games. Dan Uggla is 0-for-7 in his last two games. Gabby Sanchez is questionalble with a hamstring injury. Cody Ross is doubtful with a stiff neck. Jorge Cantu is with Texas.
If the Marlins aren't hitting, they're in big trouble because they are terrible defensively and not good at manufacturing runs.
Johnson is by far their best pitcher. He's coming off a rare bad performance, though. He allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings at San Diego. That's at Petco Park, the top pitcher's park in the majors. The Padres got to him for seven hits and drew four walks. Despite the short outing, Johnson still threw 109 pitches. He's averaging 114 pitches during his last 12 starts. That heavy toll could be getting to him.
Johnson will have to deal with a red-hot Albert Pujols, who is batting .500 with five homers in his last six games.
Jake Westbrook is set to make his second start for St. Louis. Westbrook is helped by not only coming into the National League via Cleveland, but also gatting to be coached by pitching guru Dave Duncan.
20 Dime Houston Astros
The Astros lost a tough one on Friday when closer Matt Lindstrom blew a 5-2 ninth inning lead. But the Astros are loose and playing good ball, having won seven of their last nine despite that loss.
The Brewers have dropped six of their last nine. They are banged up in the outfield and own an underwhelming 25-28 home mark. The Astros have been much better in NL Central Division play going 30-22 compared to Milwaukee's 24-28.
The key to this handicap, though, is the pitching matchup and mindset of the two teams.
Brett Myers doesn't seem to get much respect from the marketplace with an 8-6 record. Myers, however, has been as good as just about any pitcher during his last six starts. During this span, he hasn't surrendered more than two earned runs a game. He's struck out 35 during this span, while giving up an equal number of hits and walks.
Houston's bullpen can be shaky as Lindstrom demonstrated last night, but Myers can be counted on to go deep into games. He has thrown at least six innings during his past 22 starts. The Astros are 5-0 during Myers' past five outings. The right-hander is 4-2 lifetime against Milwaukee with a 3.02 ERA.
Myers has been better at home this season, but he has a 2.99 night ERA. Brewers starter Randy Wolf, on the other hand, has a 5.40 night ERA. Wolf is a flyball pitcher and has had trouble adjusting to Miller Park because of that. He's 2-4 at home this year with a 4.63 ERA.
The Astros just saw Wolf this past Sunday. Wolf had to leave that game prematurely after taking a line drive off his wrist on a ball hit by Hunter Pence. There was some concern if Wolf would even make this start. The lefty has a 7.23 ERA during his last three outings. The Astros have won the past four times they've faced a southpaw. They've also defeated the Brewers four of the past five times.
The Astros are going with youth having dealt Lance Berkman at the trade deadline. The result has been new life for Houston. The Astros are playing with passion and their youngsters, particularly third baseman Chris Johnson, are doing well taking advantage of their opportunity. They aren't a sexy team, but they usually get underpriced, which is the case here with Myers pitching.
The Brewers realize they don't have the pitching to make a run in the NL Central and that they most likely are going to lose Prince Fielder after the season. That's a depressing thought.
Red Dog Sports
Tampa Bay at Tulsa
Pick: 10* Tampa -2
The Arena Football playoffs are this weekend and I like TB -2 on Saturday night. They are coached by Tim Marcum, who is one of the best in the league and they have the best defense in the AFL. Tampa Bay lost at Tulsa to start the season and have played well since then. Their quarterback (Brett Dietz) should be able to use his experience to lead the team to a win and cover. This league has had some odd results this season based on different factors but I like TB on Saturday. They are favored on the road for a reason.
MTi Sports
Padres at D'Backs
Pick: Padres-1.5
In the series opener yesterday, Daniel Hudson went seven and two-thirds and allowed a single run on three hits for the Snakes. San Diego never led and managed a total of three hits. One of the reasons why the Padres are in first place is that they gain fast revenge. The Padres are 15-1 THIS season when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they never led.
San Diego has won these 16 games by an average of 3.3 runs. Also, the Padres are a reliable 10-0 as a road favorite when they are off a loss in which they had fewer than six hits.
The Diamondbacks are as bad in this revenge situation as the Padres are good. Arizona is a gutless 3-27 since May 2008 as a dog when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series.
Arizona’s starter, Rodrigo Lopez, is also not much for personal revenge, as the D-Backs are 0-6 with Lopez when they lost the last time he started vs this opponent, losing by an average of 4.0 runs.
Clayton Richard is not off one of his best starts. He allowed ten hits and walked three in only five and a third innings. However, we can count on him to refocus here. The Padres are 12-0 (+4.3 rpg) in franchise history with Clayton when he is off a start in which he did not pitch more than six innings and had a WHIP of at least 1.5. Every single one of the Padres’ victories was by multiple runs.
Finally, the Diamondbacks are 0-5 this season with Rodrigo Lopez when they won their last two games. As we see no reason why the D-Backs will be competitive here, take the Padres on the run-line.
MTi’s FORECAST: San Diego 6 ARIZONA 3
ASA
3* Cincinnati Reds
Executive
400% Seattle