Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, July 17,2010

Paul Leiner

50* Tigers -150 GM 1

DAVID MALINSKY

4* TORONTO over BALTIMORE

Both Brandon Morrow and Jeremy Guthrie sport similar ERA’s (4.86 vs. 4.77) and are off of recent struggles. But we see a major gap between the two in terms of the actual stuff in their arsenal right now, and that means a chance to also back the major team gap that exists.

Morrow was on a solid run until going up against the Red Sox and Yankees in his last two outings, but those games were not major sins – he still walked away with 11 K’s vs. three W’s against those lineups, and after facing eight winning teams in this last nine starts, he will relish the chance to step down in class here. Those chances have been rare – of the 126 pitchers that have worked at least 75 innings, his difficulty of batters faced is #8. That is one of two categories that help to keep him under-valued, with the other being that .358 BABIP, that is the second highest on our charts. When we note that he has 111 K’s vs. 99 hits allowed, despite the misfortune of the BABIP rates, he could be an excellent value play in the second half of the season.

We can not say the same about Guthrie. He has not won since May 25th, with the Orioles being out-scored by 27 runs in his eight starts since then, and his stuff has fallen off the table. He could not finish the 5th inning in either of his last two starts, with a 10.38 ERA in those games, and horrific counts of 16 hits and eight W’s vs. only two K’s. For the second straight season his W’s per 9 are up while his K’s per 9 are down, which ultimately leads to a crisis of confidence, especially in the brutal A.L. East – he is on an 0-14/5.67 slide against teams from this division since the All Star break LY, showing what happens when good hitters have seen all that there is from an arsenal that is nothing special.

ROCKETMAN

5* Houston Astros +110

Fantasy Sports Gametime

3-Team 100* Parlay

100* Play Atlanta (-210) over Milwaukee

Atlanta has won 11 of the last 14 games when playing on a Saturday and they have also won 3 consecutive games when revenging a home loss of 6 runs or more. Tim Hudson has won 5 of the last 6 games as a favorite of -110 or higher and he is 2-1 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 1.23.

100* Play Florida (-235) over Washington

Florida pitcher, Josh Johnson has won 9 of the last 11 games when playing in the month of July and he has also won 8 of the last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Josh Johnson is 6-0 vs. Washington over his career with an ERA of 3.65 and he is also 9-3 in all starts this season with an ERA of 1.70.

100* Play LA Angels (-185) over Seattle

Seattle has lost 8 of the last 9 games and they have also lost 23 of the last 30 games vs. division opponents. Ryan Rowland Smith has lost 9 consecutive games as a road underdog of +150 or higher and he is 0-5 in road games this season with an ERA of 7.38.

50* Play Saskatchewan (-7) over Edmonton

Saskatchewan has won and covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games in the month of July and they are averaging over 45 points a game on offense this season. Edmonton has lost 12 of the last 18 games as a road underdog and they have also lost 3 consecutive games coming off a two game home stand.

50* Play Seattle (-4.5) over Minnesota

Seattle has won 17 of their 19 games this season and they have also won 7 of the last 8games vs. Minnesota. Seattle has covered the spread in 10 of the last 11 games vs. division opponents and they have also covered the spread in 6 consecutive road games when the total posted is 150 points or greater.

Dave Cokin

Solid Gold Play - NY Yankees

Oakland A's

The Asian Executive (idiot)

Arena 1-3
CFL 1-4
WNBA 3-1
MLB -4.00
World Cup 1-1

Post All-Star Break Lock Total of the Year - Reds Over
Las Vegas Undervalue Mistake of the Month - Pirates
Waive The Rating Blank Check of My Career - Yankees
Arena Underdog of the Millenium - Orlando
Arena Lock of Our Generation - Tulsa
CFL Waive The Rating Blank Check of My Career - Edmonton
WNBA Lock of the Millenium - Seattle
WNBA Lock of the Millenium Part II - Connecticut

Joe Wiz

Big Information Internet Purchase - Rangers
Pay After You Win - Yankees

Bob Akmens

10* Detroit GM 1

10* St Louis

10* Colorado

NSA

20* Boston +135

20* Yanks -135

20* Padres -160

Scott Delaney

20 Dime Atlanta -1.5

Brett Vancise

Matchup: Arizona at San Diego
Time: 8:35 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LOPEZ, R vs. (L) RICHARD, C

Play: Over (7 EVEN)

Clayton Richard has been solid for the Padres this season, but went tumbling into the all-star break with a 6.27 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Diamondbacks never know what they are going to get from Rodrigo Lopez, as the righty followed up a flop against L.A. by tossing a good game against Florida in his last 2 starts. Petco park has been hitter friendly this season, with the OVER going 12-4-2 in San Diego in the last 18 games, and Arizona has one of the weakest bullpens in baseball with a 5.70 ERA. OVER is the play.

Dave Cokin

Solid Gold Play - NY Yankees

Oakland A's

Dave Cokin

Matchup: Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees
Time: 4:10 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) NIEMANN, J vs. (R) BURNETT, A.J.

Play: N.Y. Yankees (ML -130) Solid Gold Pla

Jeff Niemann has done some very good work for the Rays this season and he's still unbeaten for the year on the road. But I like the Yankees to get to the big righty today. Niemann was a little dinged up heading into the break and it's also important to note that he's been far less effective in his career in day games than under the lights. Streak AJ Burnett gets the ball for the Yankees, and he's off two straight good starts, so this seems to me to be the right time to back him. Most importantly, the Yankees continue to be tremendous at home and this price offers substantial value, as it could easily be another 15-20 cents higher. I'll go with the Yankees to make it two straight over the Rays.

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Matchup: Oakland at Kansas City
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) CAHILL, T vs. (L) CHEN, B

Play: Oakland (ML -114)

Trevor Cahill has been on a huge roll for the A's and I've been fortunate enough to be on the right side of several of those starts. His only bad effort over the last couple of months was mostly due to one bad pitch against the Yankees, as aside from that it has been one quality start after another for the talented young Oakland starter. Bruce Chen toes the rubber for the Royals tonight, and he has been a huge surprise in view of what has been his norm over the years. I've been waiting for the sell sign on Chen, and it may well have come in his most recent start as the lefty got hit pretty hard. I'm banking on Chen regressing to his career level, which means a few rough games till he gets moved back to the bullpen or simply cut loose. The Royals have been playing decent ball, so that's a concern here. But Cahill is cheap at this price against an adversary he clearly should outpitch, so I'm on the A's to pick up the win tonight.

Jeff Benton

30 DIME TEXAS RANGERS

10 DIME ATLANTA BRAVES -1½

Rangers

That Cliff Lee struggled in his Rangers debut last week was not exactly a shock. The talented lefty had gone through a whirlwind 24-hour period where he got uproated from Seattle and shipped to Texas, the third time in 11 months that the guy had been traded. Plus, Lee’s worst career numbers are at Rangers Ballpark (he’s now 4-4 with a 7.33 ERA in eight starts there).

Anyway, you can expect a MUCH better performance out of Lee tonight. For one thing, he’s had the All-Star break plus a couple of extra days to get acclimated to his new situation. More important than that, though, he’s facing a stripped-down Red Sox lineup that has been decimated by injuries. Boston’s starting center field (Ellsbury), second baseman (Pedroia), third baseman (Beltre), top two catchers (Martinez and Varitek) and two key bench guys (Lowell and Hermida) are all on the shelf. In fact, all but Beltre are on the disabled list.

That means Lee will be facing a lineup that includes the names Eric Patterson, Daniel Nava, Bill Hall, Kevin Cash and Mike Cameron. Not exactly the ’27 Yankees, right? Conversely, Red Sox right-hander John Lackey will be squaring off against the likes of Elvis Andrus, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Vladimir Guerrero and Josh Hamilton.

Speaking of Lackey, he’s in a funk. He gave up seven runs in 4 2/3 innings in last Saturday’s 9-5 loss at Toronto, and it was Boston’s third loss in Lackey’s last four starts, with the veteeran giving up 17 runs (16 earned) in 25 2/3 innings (5.61 ERA). And going back to his days with the Angels, Lackey has not enjoyed much success against Texas, going 11-12 with a 5.87 ERA in 32 starts. Since September 2007, Lackey has faced the Rangers 10 times and he allowed 39 runs in 45 1/3 innings (7.74 ERA), with the Rangers winning seven of those 10 contests.

Now back to Lee. Despite getting roughed up in last Saturday’s 6-1 loss to Baltimore, he still pitched a complete game, his fourth in his last five starts and fifth in his last seven. And since May 28, Lee has gone at least eight innings in nine consecutive starts, and despite playing for a Mariners team with a piss-poor offense, he’s still led his teams to wins in eight of his last 10 starts, and he’s held 11 of 14 opponents to three earned runs or less, with nine of those 11 getting two earned runs or fewer.

Finally, this rivalry has turned in Texas’ favor, with the Rangers going 10-4 against Boston since the start of the 2009 season, including two easy wins to start this series. Throw in the fact that Boston is sluoping (2-7 last nine games) and the Rangers are rolling on the road right now (11-2 last 13 on the highway), and I’ll gladly lay this cheap chalk with the better team, the healthier team and the much more dominant pitcher.

Braves -1½

The pitching stats tell the entire story here. Atlanta’s Tim Hudson has been remarkable all season, going 9-4 with a 2.30 ERA in 18 starts, including 5-2 with a 1.85 ERA at home. Only twice all season has Hudson failed to pitch at least six innings, and once was in a game with a long rain delay (he didn’t return) and the other time he went 5 2/3 innings.

Hudson has given up three earned runs or fewer in 17 of 18 trips to the mound (he allowed four earned in the other one), and breaking that down further he’s held 14 of 18 opponents to two earned runs or fewer. In his final start prior to the All-Star break a week ago today, Hudson outdueled the Mets’ Mike Pelfrey in New York, tossing seven shutout innings and yielding just four hits and two walks in a 4-0 win. Two starts prior to that, Hudson outdueled Stephen Strasburg in a 5-0 home victory.

I bring up Pelfrey and Strasburg because those two guys are legit big-league pitchers. Milwaukee’s Chris Narveson is not. The lefty has a 7-6 record, but it’s incredibly deceiving as his ERA is now 6.02 after getting destroyed in his last two starts, allowing 14 runs (13 earned) on 16 hits (four home runs) in just 8 1/3 innings in losing to the Cardinals (5-0 on the road) and Giants (15-2 at home). Milwaukee is actually 3-6 in Narveson’s last nine starts, with the losses being by 13, 5, 4, 1, 8 and 5 runs.

Despite losing last night, the Braves are the best home team in baseball (31-11), and they haven’t lost two straight home games all season. Also, they’ve still won five of seven and 11 of 17 overall. At the same time, the Brewers are just 4-6 in their last 10 games, with three of the wins coming at home against the crappy Pirates. And Milwaukee is still just 2-7 in its last nine games against the Braves.

Finally, as it pertains to laying the 1½ runs here, consider this: The final scores in Atlanta’s five home wins behind Hudson this season are 5-0, 3-1, 7-3, 13-1 and 10-1 – all easily covering the run line. And behind Hudson is a bullpen that has a 2.88 ERA at home (the Brewers relievers have a 5.01 ERA on the road).

Wunderdog

5 Units Pittsburgh Pirates -120

The Houston Astros have struggled on the road and when Bud Norris takes the mound, they have been outscored by over 2 runs a game in all of his starts, posting just two wins in his eight starts for the season. Ross Olendorf has just one win on the season, but the numbers are deceptive as he has pitched to a fairly decent 4.22 ERA - certainly more deserving of a single win. The Pirates are scoring 2 runs per game in his 13 starts, and sooner or later those numbers even out. The Astros sport just a 21-53 mark in their last 74 posted as a road dog, and just 16-44 on the road vs. a right-hand pitcher. I'll go with Pittsburgh in this one.