MTi Sports
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees
A. J. Burnett was struggling, but he has pitched very well in his last two starts. He is a streaky pitcher and we expect another great start from him here. In his last outing, he went seven innings and allowed two runs in a 6-2 win in Oakland. In franchise history, the Yankees are 9-0 at home with Burnett when he is off a road start in which he threw 100+ pitches on the road in his last start. Burnett had a quality start in each of the nine games and NY won by an average of 3.8 runs.
The Rays are excellent at winning the games they’re supposed to win, but they are 0-11 their last eleven as a road dog of more than 100 vs a divisional opponent that is ahead of them in the standings.
Yesterday, the Yankees scored five runs on only seven hits, while the Rays had nine hits and drew four walks of Sabathia but scored four runs. This is no reason to back the Rays. Tampa is 24-70 on the road after a loss as a dog in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent, including 1-5 their last five and the Yankees are 25-1 as a home favorite after a game in which their opponent left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series, as long as they did not lose that game by multiple runs.
Today, NY should win easier than yesterday.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY YANKEES 5 Tampa Bay 1
Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Houston Astros
In Bud Norris’ last two starts, the Astros were shut out by the Padres and Cardinals respectively. Norris’ WHIP was 0.86 and 1.04 in the two games. He should be able to take advantage of the drop in class here.
This is actually a great spot for Houston, as they are a very profitable 13-4 when they lost their starter’s last two starts. In addition, the Astros are 3-0 when Bud Norris starts as a dog when he lost as a home dog in his last start and the Pirates are 0-7 when Ross Ohlendorf starts vs a team that lost their starters last two starts.
As a team, the Astros are terrific at taking advantage of a struggling squad. Houston is 12-3 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series.
Pittsburgh is 0-7 vs a divisional foe that is ahead of them in the standings and a gutless 0-9 at home when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers.
Finally, the Pirates have a lot of trouble rebounding from a poor hitting performance, as they are 2-17 when seeking immediate revenge for a three-plus runs loss in which they had six or fewer hits.
MTi’s FORECAST: Houston 4 PITTSBURGH 2
Larry Ness
8* Weekend Wipeout Winner - Oakland Athletics
The A's opened the season 12-24 on the road but last night's 5-1 win at KC gives the team SIX wins in its last eight road games. It's helped that five of those wins have come over the Orioles, Indians and Royals but Oakland will take it. Expect Oakland to win again tonight in KC, as Trevor Cahill faces off vs Bruce Chen. Cahill had a solid rookie season in 2009 but wasn't called up from the minors this year until late April. He went 1-2 with a 4.37 ERA in his first four starts (team was 2-2) but has since gone 8-1 with a 2.49 ERA over his last 11 starts. The team is 9-2 in those games, losing only at home to the Yankees (and Sabathia) plus at Minnesota. Cahill has been particularly good on the road during this current stretch, going 4-0 (team is 5-0) with a 2.61 ERA in five away starts! Bruce Chen is a journeyman pitcher who has been around since 1999. This is his 10th team and really hadn't seen much action since going 13-10 (3.83 ERA) with Baltimore in 2005 until this season. He was 0-7 with a 6.93 ERA in 40 appearances (12 starts) in 2006 with Baltimore, made just five appearances for Texas in 2007, did not play in the majors in 2008 and then went 1-6 with a 5.78 ERA in 17 appearances (nine starts) for the Royals in 2009. He's made 18 appearances (eight starts) for the Royals this year with the team going 4-4 (4.01 ERA) in his eight starts. The Royals have lost four straight games (team ERA of 7.91 ERA during the slide) and now must count on Chen, who is coming off his shortest start of the season, allowing three ERs and six hits in 3.1 innings of an 8-2 loss to the White Sox on July 9. I don't think so. Expect Oakland to roll.
Executive
600% Cincinnati
Scott Rickenbach
8* NY Yankees / Tampa Bay Over
With yesterday’s game exceeding the number, the Rays are now on a 10-4 run to the over that dates back to late June. As for the Yankees, they are now 16-6 to the over this season when they are at home and the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs. The Yanks are also 19-11 to the over in divisional games this season. The Rays are 11-4 to the over this season when they are on the road and the total is 9 or 9.5 runs. Tampa Bay is also 20-12 to the over in divisional games and 24-13 to the over when facing teams with a winning record so far this season. A.J. Burnett is coming off of back to back strong starts but he had previously gone 0-5 in his six prior starts. Also, though he has good career numbers against the Rays, much of that was compiled against the weak Rays teams of years ago. The current Tampa Bay lineup is, of course, much tougher than the Rays of a few years back. As a result, it should come as no surprise that Burnett got pounded by Tampa Bay the last time he faced them.
Burnett went 0-5 in June with an 11.35 ERA. Though he enjoyed success in his last two starts, that came against his former team (the Blue Jays) where he road his emotions to the win and a game against the A’s who are one of the lighter-hitting teams in the league. Now he faces a stout Rays lineup that has averaged 5.2 runs per game in their last 10 games. Tampa Bay will surely need to score well today because we expect Jeff Niemann to struggle on the hill at Yankee Stadium. Even though he has a solid 2.93 ERA against the Yankees, the Bronx Bombers have hit .279 against him in three career appearances. Also, Niemann’s career road ERA is more than full run higher than what he’s produced at home. Additionally, while Niemann is a solid 19-7 in home games in his career, he’s just 3-3 in day games with a 4.03 ERA. In his last four road starts this season, Niemann has allowed six homers and it will be a very hot afternoon in the hitter-friendly Bronx today. He’s allowed 10 earned runs in his last 19 innings on the road. The Rays are 5-1-2 to the over in Niemann’s eight road starts this season. The Yankees are 7-2-1 to the over in Burnett’s ten starts this season where he was opposed by a right-handed hurler. That’s a combined 12-3 (80%) trend supporting the over in this one and we love the power of these two lineups coming together for a hot afternoon of offensive fireworks at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. One final note here, the Yankees bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack this season while the Rays bullpen has struggled some in recent weeks and they lost yesterday’s game for Tampa Bay too! Play OVER the total in the New York Yankees game as an *8* Regular Play selection.
7* Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Chicago Cubs
We lost a tough one with the Phillies yesterday as they had never trailed the entire game until the bottom of the eighth when the Cubs got the game-winning homer. Look for Philadelphia to bounce back behind Cole Hamels who is certainly enjoying a resurgence with the Phillies this season. After stellar seasons in 2007 and 2008, the 2009 season was a tough one for the Phils southpaw. He has certainly regrouped this season and Hamels’ 7-7 record is not reflective of how well he has pitched. The Phillies left-hander had a 2.45 ERA in May. Then, in June, he held opposing hitters to a .218 batting average. This month Hamels has a 2.49 ERA in his three starts. The Phils lefty is 3-1 in his five career starts against the Cubs and he’s held them to a .214 BAA while compiling a solid 2.61 ERA. In his last 7 starts, Hamels has given up just 39 hits in 47.2 innings of work! July has traditionally been one of Hamels best months as he’s 10-5 in July games in his career while compiling a 3.58 ERA and holding hitters to a .228 BAA. While Hamels holds the Cubs bats in check this afternoon, look for the Cubs Randy Wells to get pounded.
Chicago’s Wells has been pounded at a .293 clip by left-handed batters in his career and he will face a number of dangerous left-handed sticks in this match-up. Also, the Phillies offense could get a boost with the return of Placido Polanco for this afternoon’s game. Even if the infielder is not back in the lineup today, look for the Phils to take advantage of a hurler who is 1-7 in his last 8 decisions. While Wells has pitched better of late, he’s been rocked in day games this season as opponents have hit .317 against him while the right-hander has compiled a 5.47 ERA. The Phillies are 6-3 this season, and 37-17 the last three seasons, when they are on the road and their money line is -100 to -125. As for the Cubs, they are on a long-term run of 62-90 when they are a home underdog of +100 to +125. Since mid-June, the Phillies have only lost three straight games one time and we look for them to bounce back after dropping the first two games in this series. As for the Cubs, they’ve only won three straight games once since late May! They snuck out the win yesterday and they certainly deserve credit for that but, behind a huge performance from Hamels, look for the Phillies to get back into the win column this afternoon. Play Philadelphia on the money line as a *7* Regular Play selection.
10* Baltimore / Toronto Over
Yesterday’s game stayed under the total but today’s pitching match-up sets this one up well to fly over the total. The Blue Jays Brandon Morrow is 0-5 with a 6.80 ERA in his nine road starts this season. He hasn’t recorded a win in a road game since September 12th! Morrow also struggled in his prior start at Baltimore. That was back in April and five walks in just five innings helped lead to five Oriole runs in a short outing for Morrow. The only good news for Morrow here is that his teammates could bail him out again like they did in that April game. The reason we say that is because Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie is very likely to struggle in this spot! He hasn’t won a game since May 25th and the Orioles right-hander has gone 0-6 with a 6.32 ERA in his last eight starts. Guthrie also is 2-5 in his career against the Blue Jays. The Orioles are 9-2 to the over this season when they are a home dog in a range of +100 to +125. Baltimore has averaged 11 hits per game in their last 9 games while the Blue Jays have averaged 9.5 hits per game their last 8 games.
Before yesterday’s under, Toronto was 24-16 to the over in their road games this season. Before staying under in back to back games, the Blue Jays were on a 6-0-1 run to the over. Toronto is a dangerous home run hitting team and Guthrie has allowed eight homers in his last eight games! Also, it will be a very warm evening after a hot afternoon in Baltimore. Guthrie has walked 12 batters and struck out just 6 in his last 14.2 innings of work. He’s 2-8 in night games this season with a 4.95 ERA. Morrow is 10-4 at home in his career but 3-14 on the road with a 5.41 ERA in 148 career innings away from home. In Morrow’s starts on natural grass, the Blue Jays are 7-1 to the over this season. As for Guthrie, the Orioles are 5-2 to the over in his last seven starts. Also, the Blue Jays bullpen ERA has been on the rise and they now rank in the middle of the pack in the majors. As for the Orioles, their bullpen has a combined batting average against of .279 and that ranks among the worst marks in the majors. In other words, it’s runs early, often, and throughout this match-up. Play OVER the total in Baltimore as a *10* Top Play selection.
THE PREZ
7* Tampa Bay +122
Jeff Niemann won't have any restrictions when he starts today, convinced, and convincing to the coaches, that the back tightness that forced him out of Sunday's game is no longer an issue. The Tamp Bay righty shut down the Diamondbacks in his last start allowing just 1 ER in 7 1/3 while striking out 8 batters. All those strikeouts are refreshing considering the warm summer temps in New York and Boston during August and September, this if the Rays won't to challenge for the top two spots in the East. Niemann recorded 14 Quality Starts in his first 18 chances and has a 2.54 BB/9 mark (compared to 2.84 in ’09). The righty is 1-0 against the Yankees in his career with a 2.93 ERA in three starts. That Niemann has pushed his K’s into an acceptable range to go along with the rest of his good skills, 2.5 BB/9 and a 45% GB% he is a perfect fit against a patient Yankees lineup, as his career number suggest.
AJ Burnett put up an ERA of over 11.00 for the month of June and after five straight starts of the non-quality variety he was able to shut the Blue Jays out over 6 2/3 innings in his last start. He walked three and struck out six. It is true that Burnett has had some bad luck on balls in play this year but his velocity and control issues persist, and his contact rate against has gotten steadily worse, especially over the last two seasons. The Yanks right-hander is one of the top five pitchers in the American League, despite his age, that has shown a serious declining skill set. He is a play against for the remainder of the second half, especially against lineups that know him well, like the Rays and Red Sox.
Backing road underdogs (Tampa) with a bullpen that sports a WHIP of 1.150 or better coming off a blown save with a starter that sports an FIP of 3.50 or less when oddsmakers open the money line on the home team at less than -139. The trend is 40-17 (70%) over the last 13 seasons and the Yankees lose two out of every three games in this situation (understanding public shade) over the last decade.
TEDDY COVERS
DBacks/Padres Over 7
Orlando +9
Tulsa -5.5
SPORTS UNLIMITED
2* PITTSBURGH
DAVID BANKS
Phillies
Reds -120
Rangers -138
Royals +107
Padres -154
Mets +140
PLATINUM PLAYS
TOP PLAY
SD Padres
REGULAR PLAYS
Cards
Oak
RSox
NY Mets
KELSO
50 Units Texas Rangers -140
15 Units Oakland Athletics -115
10 Units GM1* Detroit Tigers -150 L
3 Units Saint Louis Cardinals -1.5
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units Oakland Athletics -110
5 Units Philadelphia Phillies +100
4 Units New York Yankees -130
Power Play Wins
Cincinnati Reds
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Colorado +115
1 Unit NY Yanks -135
1 Unit Texas -140
King Creole
2* Blue Jays / Orioles Over 9
JIM REYNOLDS gets the call behind the dish tonight in Game Two of this Orioles / Blue Jays series. Overall record on the year for Reynolds is 9-5-1 O/U. His results are even better in American League games, in which he has gone 'OVER' at a 80% rate (4-1 O/U / 10.8 combined runs per game). And in games featuring TWO right-handed starters facing off against each other, Reynolds has gone 5-1 O/U.... and 26-12 O/U in the last 2.5 seasons. We also note that he has gone 4-1 O/U on this particular Day of the Week (Saturday).
Taking a look at both of tonight's opponents also points us in the right direction in terms of the Man in Blue. Reynolds has gone 5-1 O/U in his last 6 BLUE JAY game over the last 3 seasons. That includes a PERFECT 3-0 O/U already THIS season... with an average combined 13.5 runs in Blue Jay games. He worked a Brandon Morrow start back in late May.... and the final score was 7 to 5 (OU line was 9). Reynolds has also gone 7-3 O/U in his last 10 ORIOLE games over the last 5 years. That includes a PERFECT 4-0 O/U 'In THIS Park'.... with an average of 12.0 combined runs per game.
These two teams have gone a combined PERFECT 11-0 O/U in Game Two of any series over the last 3 weeks. That's a nice place to start from a team perspective. The BLUE JAYS are 5-0 O/U after allowing 2 < runs in their last game... 5-1-1 O/U when playing off a win... and on a 6-2-1 o/U overall run in their last 9 games. The ORIOLES are 7-1-1 O/U in their last 9 home UNDERDOG roles... 4-1 O/U after scoring 2 < runs in their last game... 9-3 O/U playing off a loss... and 10-4 O/U on Saturdays.
Sealing the deal is the POOR current form for BOTH of tonight's scheduled starters. Brandon Morrow has an ERA of 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts, ALL three of which went 'OVER' the Total. His road ERA on the year is also on the high side, at 6.80 for the season. He's already faced the Orioles once this season... as he got tagged for 5 runs in 5 innings pitched (9.00 ERA) in a 7-6 slugfest ('OVER easy'). Jeremy Guthrie has an ERA of 7.98 in his last 3 starts... and is on a current 4-1 o/U run in his last 5 overall. He's gone 5-0 O/U in his last 5 underdog roles... and is 4-0 O/U in Game two of a series.
Marc Lawrence
Texas Rangers -140
The Rangers send recently acquired left-hander Cliff Lee to the hill in Fenway Park against John Lackey and the Red Sox this evening knowing Lee has issued six walks against 91 strikeouts in his 14 starts this season. He's also gone 14-4 with 13 walks and 80 strikeouts in his L18 road team starts and is 5-1 with three walks and 33 strikeouts in his L6 team starts during July. With Lackey 0-6 with a 9.24 ERA in his last six home team starts against Texas, and 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA in his last two starts prior to this contest, we'll back Lee and the Rangers this evening. We recommend a strong 3* play on Texas