Larry Ness
10* Perfect Storm - Cincinnati Reds
One is beginning to get the feeling that things are starting to come together for the Cincinnati Reds. They entered the All Star break in first place for the first time since 1995, which was the last time the team had made the postseason. Then last night, they opened the second half of the 2010 season by ending a nine-game losing streak to the Colorado Rockies with a 3-2 win. More good news (actually GREAT news!) comes in the fact that the team is getting Edinson Volquez (17-6 with a 3.21 ERA in 2008) back earlier than expected from elbow surgery. Volquez was limited to just nine starts in 2009, after he was the team's ace in 2008 (21-11 in his starts and an All Star appearance). Volquez has been on the DL recovering from Tommy John surgery but is set to make his first start of the year tonight against the Rockies. His last major league start came back on June 1, 2009 but Volquez "is ready," after going 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA in six minor league starts (teams were 6-0), posting a 28-8 KW ratio. He will get to pitch in front of a team which leads the NL in batting and has scored more runs than any team in the senior circuit. The Reds are 28-19 at home, where they are averaging a very healthy 5.34 RPG. Opposing Volquez will be Colorado lefty De La Rosa, who has had a spotty 2010 season. Here's a guy who opened the 2009 season 0-6 in his first 10 starts (team was 2-8) but then went 16-3 the rest of the way, as the Rockies won 18 of his final 22 starts (16-9 with a 4.38 ERA / team was 20-12). He opened this season 3-1 (3.21) but then went on the DL after tearing a tendon in the middle finger of his pitching hand on April 25. He's just returned but looked very rusty on July 9 at home vs the Padres (4.1 IP / 7 runs, 5 earned), getting a no decision in a 10-8 Colorado win. De La Rosa is 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA in eight career games (two starts) against the Reds and faces a team this year which is 10-5 at home vs lefties, including averaging 6.6 RPG in home night games vs left-handers. This is a PERFECT spot for Volquez to return. Reds win.
Ben Burns
10* Minnesota Twins -150
The White Sox entered the series as the much hotter team and they grabbed Thursday's opener. The Twins bounced back with a solid 7-4 victory yesterday though. I expect the Twins to build some positive momentum from that victory and look for them to make it two in a row this evening.
Pavano goes for the Twins and he's been excellent lately. In fact, he's 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA in his last seven starts. For the season, he's 10-6 with a 3.58 ERA. Additionally, note that Pavano is 4-2 with a 2.81 ERA in six starts against Chicago.
Minnesota's Michael Cuddyer had this to say of Pavano, after his last start: "Carl has been our stopper so far this year. He went out there and did it again today."
Buehrle is also off a strong game and has also pitched well in recent weeks. He's 0-4 with a 7.16 ERA his last five starts at Minnesota though and he was mediocre (4 runs on 8 hits) when facing the Twins, at Chicago, back in April. Speaking of mediocre, he's just 8-7 on the season.
The Twins badly need to string together some victories. After yesterday's win, manager Ron Gardenhire noted: "We need to get on the right track. We've been floundering here for about a month. The crowds are coming out to support this baseball team, and we need to play a better brand of baseball for 'em. Tonight, hopefully that's a good start."
The Twins, who hit a lot better at home than the White Sox do on the road, have been excellent as home favorites in this range the past few seasons. They've also dominated the Sox, when the teams have met here at Minnesota. In fact, yesterday's victory brought the Twins to 15-5 the last 20 times that they were a host in this series. Behind another quality effort from Pavano, I expect them to build on those stats with another victory.
8* Chicago / Minnesota Under 8.5
The first two games in this series have both been high-scoring. Thursday's opener saw 15 runs scored. Yesterday's game finished with 11. With both starters in excellent current form, I expect a much lower-scoring affair this evening.
Pavano has been outstanding recently. In fact, he's 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA in his last seven starts. For the season, he's 10-6 with a 3.58 ERA. He's averaged seven innings per start and has seen the UNDER go 10-7-1. Additionally, note that Pavano is 4-2 with a 2.81 ERA (0.96 WHIP!) in six starts against Chicago. The UNDER was 4-2 in those games, including a 3-2 affair earlier this season.
Minnesota's Michael Cuddyer had this to say of Pavano, after his last start: "Carl has been our stopper so far this year. He went out there and did it again today."
Buehrle checks in having gone 5-1 with a 2.23 ERA in his last six outings. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings. That one finished above the total but Buehrle has still seen the UNDER go 3-1 his last four starts. For the season, the UNDER is 6-3 in his nine road starts. Dating back to last season, the UNDER is now a profitable 12-3 in his last 15 road starts.
Even with the results of the last two days, the UNDER is still 8-2 the last 10 times that the Sox played here at Minnesota. The UNDER is also 5-2-2 the last nine times that the Twins faced a southpaw starter. I expect those stats to improve here.
Lenny Del Genio
20* NY Yankees -130
The Yankees are only a short home favorite today as the Rays send Niemann to the hill. He’s been perfect on the road this season with a 8-0 team start record. However, we look for NY to snap that streak this afternoon. The Yankees are scoring 5.3 runs on the season and this is a bad sign for the Rays. Tampa Bay is 0-11 in the second half of the season against these high scoring type of teams. Another very good sign for the Yankees is that they are a very strong 16-2 against teams like Tampa who’s hitters draw 4 or more walks per season. NY starts Burnett and throughout his career as pitched very well against the Rays with a 12-5 record and 2.98 ERA. We’re backing the Red Hot Yankees who have won nine of the last 10 games. Play on NY Yankees.
20* Texas -130
Lee gets his second start tonight for the Rangers. His first wasn’t what Texas had expected as he was shelled by the O’s allowing six earned runs in a 6-1 loss. However, look for the lefty to come back strong tonight. On the road this season Lee has a very strong 2.24 ERA and impressive 0.941 WHIP. The last time Lee faced the Red Sox he pitched eight innings of shutout baseball, and that was the powerful Red Sox. Boston has been hit with major injuries and is a shell of their normal team. Boston gives the ball to Lackey tonight and he’s been nothing special this season with a 4.78 ERA and 9-9 team start record. Boston was beat up last night by this Texas lineup and we expect a similar result today. Boston is an awful 3-15 against teams like Texas who score 5.2 runs per game or more in the second half of the season. As we said Boston has a number of injuries and are averaging less than 2.75 extra base hits. Lee is extremely tough against teams like this posting an 18-5 team start record. Lee gets his first win as a Ranger. Play on Texas!
20* Toronto -130
The Blue Jays beat the O’s last night for the seven straight time this season. Today, the pitching matchup has Morrow for the Jays while Baltimore counters with Guthrie. The Baltimore right has been struggling of late with a 7.98 ERA in his last three starts. When he throws against a division opponent is it a disaster as he has an 8-30 TSR. Morrow hasn’t pitched very well of late but he is allowing 5.5 or less hits per start. Baltimore this season is 3-19 against pitchers that allow 5.5 or less hits per start. We’re backing Toronto make is eight in a row over Baltimore. Play on Toronto.
The Duke's Sports
Boston (+135) for 2 Units
We realize the Rangers have hammered the struggling Red Sox over the last few games in this series; however, we don't see them sustaining that run barrage against Lackey. Sure, Lackey has had more trouble with Texas than any other team he has faced, and he is coming off a dismal performance at Toronto July 10th. However, Lackey is a fierce competitor, and based on his history with the Angels, he should be focused here; after all, the Red Sox are 7-1 in Lackey's last 8 home starts. And the Red Sox have won 15 of their last 21 at Fenway. And keep in mind that the Rangers are a sluggish 14-37 in Boston. We'll look for Boston to settle in for this spot: they're 7-1 on Saturday and 5-2 in game 3 of a series. We'll look for Cliff Lee, who is coming off a shaky debut with Texas, to struggle vs a pretty good swinging bunch vs lefties.
BOB BALFE
Boston Red Sox +134
The Rangers won the first two games of the series and I do not see the the Red Sox getting swept at home. Cliff Lee lost his first game as a Ranger and I think he is a couple of games away from finding his groove in the Texas system and getting on the same page as Molina and the catching staff. Look for the Red Sox to win late into the game. Take Boston.
Street Rosenthal
*200 Tampa Bay Rays +126
*200 Minnesota Twins -150
*200 Toronto Blue Jays -136
*200 Texas Rangers -151
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St. Louis (-165) over LA Dodgers (POD)
Steve Budin
New York Yankees
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
9* Florida Marlins -1.5
MATT FARGO
10* Edmonton Eskimos
I have played on Saskatchewan both times this season and the Roughriders have treated me well with two wins the last coming on the road at British Columbia. This is definitely a team to be on the lookout for this season as they want to make up for the close call suffered last season in losing the Grey Cup by a single point against Montreal. Saskatchewan was able to get its revenge in the opener as it won against Montreal in overtime and followed it up with a big win on the road last week against an overmatched Lions team. Here comes another challenge this week and it is not looking good. I played on Edmonton on Sunday as despite winning the statistical part of the game by a large margin, the Eskimos lost against the Alouettes by 10 points as they were outscored by 15-0 in the four quarter which was culminated by an interception returned for a touchdown which iced the game and the cover. The Eskimos are now 0-2 after losing the opener at home against British Columbia in a game that was closer than what the final score indicated. It is a disappointing start to what was supposed to be a strong year but it is far from over and this is game that needs to be won to get the team going in the right direction. Because of the records, we get value in the number and also get a great contrarian situation to play. Play against home favorites that are coming off a win over a division rival in the first half of the season. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last five seasons. This has the makings of an outright upset for Edmonton. 10* Edmonton Eskimos