Chris Jordan
600♦ BOSTON RED SOX RUN LINE (LIST Lester and Guthrie)
The five-game skid is over and the Red Sox should be in high gear to start a winning streak now. Off last night’s 3-1 win over the Orioles – its seventh win in eight meetings this season – Boston treks Jon Lester to the hill, and that’s an automatic for me when these two get together. The southpaw Lester is a perfect 8-0 in his career against the Orioles, and has already shut them down twice this year.
In 10 career starts against the O’s, Lester also sports a stifling 2.18 ERA, while he’s allowed a total of four runs while winning the last five in a row. In this year’s meetings, Lester has struck out 17 in 14 scoreless innings, while scattering nine hits. And get this: he’s sporting twice as many career wins against the Orioles as he has versus any other opponent.
He comes in with plenty of momentum too; the left-hander is 5-2 with a 1.75 ERA in his last nine starts overall. His success comes directly from a fearless approach of challenging hitters with four quality pitches. He has a heater that reaches the mid-90s, two crisp breaking balls and a baffling change-up that freezes batters on command. And what I love most about a guy like Lester, he’ll call upon any one of those pitches – not to mention the occasional slider and back-door curve – anytime in the count.
A pitcher with confidence is someone I always want on my side, and Lester is that type of guy. Like a Maddux, like a Clemens, and I guess these days, like a Buehrle!
Boston has won 14 of 16 against the Orioles since July 12, 2008 and also holds a 28-6 edge at Fenway Park against them; after last night, Baltimore has lost 10 straight in Beantown.
Delving into the numbers a bit deeper, the Orioles are mired in extensive losing streaks of 16-44 on the road, 16-51 in this series, 16-46 against intra-division foes, 15-43 as a road pup, 1-4 in Jeremy Guthrie’s last five against the East and 2-6 when the toes the slab on five days rest.
With Boston, the winning runs include a 10-0 spurt when Lester is a home chalk of two bucks or more, 25-5 when he’s installed as a home favorite, 14-4 against losing teams and 23-9 in the team’s last 32 division clashes.
And news flash to all, Boston’s lineup should be getting that boost today from Adam LaRoche, who is scheduled to make his debut with the team after being acquired this past week from the Pirates. Remember when Jason Bay debuted last season? Same situation, as everything points to the Red Sox in a blowout win tonight.
Al DeMarco
5 Dime - Atlanta Braves
When Atlanta cut Tom Glavine loose in favor of adding Tommy Hanson to the rotation, there was some immediate second-guessing after the 23-year-old rookie was hit hard in his first start against Milwaukee, a game in which he served up three homers and allowed six earned runs in six innings. But, Hanson has proven his worth and mettle repeatedly since, going 5-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his next seven starts, including 2-0 with a 2.66 earned run average in four road outings.
Hanson's mound opponent tonight, Yovani Gallardo, is 0-3 with a 5.09 ERA in his last four starts, a stretch in which he's allowed 39 baserunners in 23 innings. He will face an Atlanta team that's not only won 11 of 15, but one that has batted .316 and averaged 6.3 runs a game while going 7-2 since the All Star break.
Gallardo has pitched well in the past against Atlanta, going 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two previous outings. But considering his recent struggles, and Milwaukee's 6-13 swoon in July, taking a hot Atlanta team with a quickly maturing rookie hurler in Hanson as a slight road underdog is a wise investment strategy.
Drew Gordon
1. 100,000♦ Diamondbacks
2. 50,000♦ Brewers
1. Diamondbacks- Couple things I like about this match up for Arizona, but let's start with the fact they're seeing the ball well, recording 10 or more hits in 5 of their L7 games, despite going 3-4 over that span. True, the Pirates dropped 10 runs on the D-Backs yesterday, but don't be fooled, you don't trade away so many pieces without feeling an effect sooner or later. True, the emergence of Garrett Jones has helped soften the blow, but rest-assured, the Bucs will have their work cut out for them tonight.
Why you ask? Because I believe this is the spot where veteran southpaw Doug Davis bounces back. I know full well he's gotten stomped the last two times out, but before you putting him on your "fade list," consider he got touched up by to teams that happen to be solid against lefties (Florida 10-6 away vs lefties AND we all know Colorado kills lefties at Coors). Its only makes sense that he should settle down tonight at home (where he posts a solid 3.33 ERA) against a less potent Pirates offense.
Surprisingly the Diamondbacks offensive surge has taken place on the road for the most part, where they've been below average this season. Now in their first two games of this series back at Chase Field, we've seen a total of 14 runs on 23 hits! We know the D-Backs can hit at home, and that's bad news for the Pirates Ross Ohlendorf. Not only has the Pirates righty been atrocious on the road, going 2-5 with a 5.91 ERA this season, but we've seen a marked decrease in stamina over his last 3 starts. In other words, in his first full season as a starter, Ohlendorf is starting to fatigue. Look for the D-Backs suddenly surging offense to take full advantage tonight.
Finally, I leave you with one key stat... Did you know the Pirates are just 4-11 vs left-handed starters on the road this season?! They average a meager 4.3 runs per game in that spot, and are batting just .243 in the process. In the end, don't give up on Davis just yet, as the Pirates Ohlendorf gets into big trouble tonight on the road, giving Davis the support he so desperately needs.
Take the Diamondbacks behind Davis over the Pirates and Ohlendorf as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Brewers- Tommy Hanson at plus money? This is a "gift" from Vegas right? Of course NOT! Guys, how many times do I have to tell you: Vegas is not in the habit of giving away "gifts," and that remains true in this match up. So why take the struggling Brewers in this match up? Two words: Yovani Gallardo.
You see, bettors who are so enamored with Tommy Hanson seem to forget how well Gallardo pitched against Atlanta his last time out, he tossed 8 scoreless, allowing only 2 hits in one of his best starts of the season June 5th... And that was at Turner Field! In fact, the Brewers righty is 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 2 career starts versus Atlanta! Coming off a nice quality effort at Cincinnati, I'm looking for Gallardo to get his first win in almost a month tonight.
I'm not going to sit here and bad mouth Hanson, who is one of the more electric rookie pitchers out there. However, let's not get carried away, as the young gun still has a lot to learn, and just because he dominated a piss-poor Giants offense in his last start, doesn't mean he's going to do the same to the Brewers tonight. In fact, the only team to give Hanson trouble was the Brewers in his Major League debut, touching him up for 6 runs over 6 innings June 7th.
Bottom line, its never easy to go against a team that's surging like the Braves are right now, but if there's any pitcher who can throw a cold bucket of water on their offense, its Gallardo. On the flip side, I like Hanson as much as the next guy, but the Brewers have proven a tough match up for the young righty, and I suspect that'll continue tonight. In the end, the Brewers AND Gallardo are desperate for a W, and I say they get it tonight at Miller Park.
Take the Brewers behind Gallardo over the Braves and Hanson in this MLB match up.
Half Bets
8* Toronto ML -108
Wunderdog
Game: St. Louis at Philadelphia
3 units St. Louis +120
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St. Louis at Philadelphia
5 units St. Louis +1.5
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Minnesota at Los Angeles Angels
3 units Los Angeles Angels -1.5
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San Diego at Washington
2 units Washington -110
Jake Timlin
400♦ Philadelphia Phillies
List both Lopez & Lohse as starting pitchers or this play is void
Take the Phillies as they bounce back from last night’s home loss to the Cardinals.
Still winners of 15 of their last 18 games overall and 12 of their last 15 games at home I fully expect for the Phillies to rebound for a huge victory today. Now to help guide the Phillies to the win today will be Lopez who has been short of amazing since joining the staff going 2-0 with an ERA of 2.60 in three starts in which Philadelphia has won all three games, including his last start resulting in a 10-1 win over the Cubs just five days ago.
Countering for the Cardinal will be Lohse who is an awful 1-6 with an ERA of 6.19 over his last 7 starts. Even worst news for St. Louis is they don’t stand much of a shot at winning with Lohse today as the Cardinals have lost 10 of the last 11 road games when Lohse starts.
Well given that Philadelphia is still playing lights out and backed by the better pitcher I look for the Phillies to blast Lohse and the Cardinals today at home.
All Philadelphia
STU FEINER
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WHITE SOX @ TIGERS
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IT WILL NOT BE EASY BUT FLOYD WILL GET THE ROAD W THIS AFTERNOON. HE OWNS THE TIGERS. 1-0 THIS YEAR AND 5-0 LIFETIME AGAINST DETROIT. HE HAS WON 2 OF HIS LAST 3 STARTS AND HIS TEAM HAS WON 11 OF HIS 19 STARTS. JACKSON NEVER GETS RUN SUPPORT AND HIS TEAM HAS ONLY WON 10 OF HIS 19 STARTS EVEN THOUGH HIS ERA 2.52 FOR THE YEAR. HE IS 1-2 LIFETIME AGAINST CHICAGO AND WILL GET BEAT IN THIS SPOT TODAY.
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WHITE SOX +135 FOR A 1000 DIME SELECTION
BIG AL
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SATURDAY MAJOR LEAGUE ROADKILL WINNER!
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LA DODGERS
Scott Spreitzer
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MAJOR MISMATCH GAME OF THE MONTH! *30-8 Run!!
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HOUSTON ASTROS
Pat Hawkins
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Braves at Brewers
Pick: Brewers -1.5 +165
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Braves starter Tommy Hanson has been battling an ilness for the last week or so, if he goes he won't be 100%, if he doesnt go look for the Brewers to knock around his replacement. Gallardo will be the main factor in this game as he has been light out at home racking up big strike out numbers.
Scott Delaney
10-DIME SEATTLE MARINERS -1' RUNS (Action) - Not falling for this mini-streak the Tribe seems to be on, it’s simply not that good. Cleveland stunned Seattle last night, so what. Although it’s an auto-list of pitchers in a run-line situation, I am not concentrating on whom to go with specifically. Nonetheless, the M’s should get it back tonight with Erik Bedard making his second start against the Indians in seven days. The southpaw allowed just two earned runs and four hits while striking out six over 4-2/3 innings of a 5-3 win at Cleveland last Sunday. He’s allowed six earned runs in 14-1/3 innings over his last three outings, and should be psyched against Cleveland, as he is 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA in eight starts against it.
Despite winning its last two games, Cleveland is mired in losing streaks of 3-10 on Saturdays, 2-6 the last eight meetings with the M’s and 10-22 overall. And when Jeremy Sowers is on the hill, the Tribe is on losing streaks of 2-16 when he’s a road pup, 1-10 when he’s visiting a winning team and 2-9 overall.
All Seattle tonight.
5-DIME COLORADO ROCKIES -1' RUNS (WITH De La Rosa over Sanchez) - It’s short and sweet in this NL West showdown, as Jorge De La Rosa comes in on a personal five-game winning streak, while the Rockies are 8-1 in his last nine trips to the hill (including one relief appearance). Colorado is 5-0 in his last five outings (four starts) at home, including last Monday, when he limited the D’Backs to one run on four hits over seven innings of a 10-6 road win. He has a 1.98 ERA in his last four starts and should be fired up with a showdown with Jonathan Sanchez, who threw the first no-hitter of the 2009 season. This is a showdown for the National League Wild Card lead, and the Rockies will be out for revenge after last night’s 3-1 setback to Frisco, which is mired in a 3-6 slide. Lay the run line tonight with Colorado.
KBHoops
5* LA Dodgers UNDER 9 **POD**
5* NY Yankees UNDER 10.5
5* LA Angels UNDER 9.5 +116
5* Philadelphia UNDER 10 +105
5* Arizona UNDER 9 +105
Wayne Root
Chairman - Tampa Bay
PowerPlayWins
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Houston Astros -128
TONY BRUNO WINS
ARIZONA 20x
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