BOB BALFE
Germany +230
Germany/Argentina Over 2.5
Lionel Messi is the best player in the world but individual effort does not get a team very far in the tournament. Germany is a physical team and they have fresh legs being so young. Expect both teams to easily push the ball up and down the field and to have great scoring chances via the counter-attack. This should be a goal-fest with Germany winning in the end. Take Germany and the Over.
Spain -250
Paraguay had a great tournament run, but David Villa and Spain will be too much to handle today. The Spanish are a much better team and, if they play smart, should win with ease. Take Spain.
Cincinnati Reds -119
Johnny Cueto is having a great year and the Reds are coming off a 12-0 trashing of the Cubs yesterday. It's hard to come back from a 12-0 defeat and even more so when you are facing a pitcher like Cueto. Take the Reds.
Asian Exec (Idiot)
0-2 L2 CFL
Arena Orlando: Cleveland is 2-5 SU on the road and one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Home favorites are 19-8 SU this season. Home favorites are 14-13 ATS. The line is -3 so let's take a chance on Orlando -3.
Sports Investment Group
Toronto / NYY UNDER 8.5
JR O'Donnell
Red Sox -1.5
The Red Sox were limited last night to 3 runs and tonight they crush a poor Baltimore O's team that will not be able to handle Jon Lester and his remarkable win streak vs. the @24-55 O's. Lester is 9-3, 2.86 ERA and a smooth 11-0 with a 2.06 ERA in the last 14 battles with the O's. The Lester show will be the "Winning" show tonight as the Red Sox just keep winning at Fenway. The O's counter with Guthrie who is 3-9 so far and the Sox have the swagger to take out the O's tonight at home.
King Creole
2* Blue Jays / Yankees Under 8.5
2 Starters in great current form.... a low-scoring series history... two teams that are offensively-challenged versus southpaw pitchers... and a home plate Umpire on a great 'Under' run. Add 'em all together and you have the ingredients for a 4* Best Bet.
This 'Lefty vs Lefty' pitching matchup has LOW SCORE written all over it. The Jays are hitting only .205 vs lefties on the year... and only .201 on the road. In fact, they average TWO full runs per game less against southpaws than they do against righties (3.0 RPG versus 4.9 RPG). It's not much better for the Pin-Stripers. New York is averaging ONE full run per game less on offense against southpaws (4.4 RPG vs 5.6 RPG) than against righties. In their last ten games, the Yankees are hitting only .203 as a team against lefties....
With yesterday's Game One of this series going UNDER (6-1 in extra innings), that puts the New York / Toronto series at a PERFECT 0-4 O/U so far in the 2010 season (only 6.2 runs per game).
BLUE JAYS: 1-5 O/U vs fellow AL East opponents... 3-8-1 O/U on the road vs southpaws... and a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in their last 5 SATURDAY games.
YANKEES: 1-7 O/U in their last 8 home games... 1-5-1 O/U vs fellow AL East opponents... 1-6 O/U vs opponents with a < .500 road record.
Lefty RICKY ROMERO is on a roll. 1.96 ERA in his last 3 starts... including two games in which he allowed ZERO earned runs. He started against the Yankees June 5th at home... and won by a final score of 3-2 (OU Line was 8.5). In that game, he went 8 innings... allowed only 5 hits... and 2 earned runs. We also note that he's a MUCH better pitcher in DAY games (only 1.43 ERA)... than NIGHT games (4.30 ERA). Romero is 1-5 O/U on Saturdays... 1-6-1 O/U in last 8 road starts... 1-3-1 O/U in Game Two of a series.
ANDY PETTITTE comes in with a home ERA of only 2.81 on the season. He's allowed 2 or LESS earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts (2.75 ERA). He also happened to be on the receiving end of that June 5th game (3-2 loss = easy Under). He also looked sharp in that one (7.6 IP / 2 ERA / 10-3 K-BB ratio). And just like his counterpart, he's a MUCH better pitcher in DAY starts (1.87 ERA) than he is at NIGHT (3.69). Pettitte: 1-5 O/U on 5 days rest... 1-4 O/U on Saturdays...
Sealing the deal is the 'Man in Blue'. DAN IASSOGNA gets he call behind the dish. He comes in with a 5-11 O/U record on the year... and only 7.6 combined runs per game. But he's done even BETTER as of late. Iassogna has gone 2-9 O/U in his last 11 games since early May.... with an average of only 5.9 RPG. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has also been extremely high as of late... which is what we look for in a potential 'UNDER'. K/BB ratio in that 2-month span is 2.71 to 1 (141 K's to only 52 BB's)...
Tony George
Texas -139
The Rangers off a loss last night which is rare at home where they are 21-7 their last 28, this is a GREAT bounceback spot with an undefeated starter in Tommy Hunter who has a low WHIP and a 2.15 ERA on the season going up against John Danks for the WS. The Rangers are red hot at the plate but only had 7 hits last night and gave up 14. I see the opposite scenario tonight and a Rangers home win to even the series at a decent price. Play 1 Unit on the Rangers
Larry Ness
Daytime Dominator NYM/Was Over
RA Dickey is in his eighth big league season. He entered this season 22-28 with a 5.43 ERA in 144 appearances (48 starts), having allowed 519 hits in 442.2 innings. Those are not exactly impressive numbers. Dickey made his NY Met debut on May 19 of this year, allowing five hits and two ERs (six innings) in a 5-3 loss to these Nationals in which he received a no decision. However, the knuckleballer then won SIX consecutive starts, posting a 2.23 ERA, How is that? Well, the Marlins put an end to his winning streak this past Monday, as Dickey allowed five hits and five ERs in five innings of a 10-3 loss. It was his first loss of the season but SURELY won't be his last! In fact, look for Dickey to return to his past form. The Nats will like getting a second shot at him and with Stephen Strasburg on the mou~nd, they will really WANT to get the young phenom some runs. Everyone knows about Strasburg and after a 2-0 start, his teammates have provided him with one total run of support over his last three outings! “I feel for him. I feel for our whole ballclub,” manager Jim Riggleman told the team’s official website. Expect Dickey to be "just what the doctor ordered" for Washington's struggling bats. Now I don't expect the Mets to clobber Strasburg but let's remember, this is just his SIXTH big league start and he has allowed 15 hits over his last 12.1 innings (two starts) and the Braves did reach him for four runs (three earned ) in his last outing. This total is so low that the Nats could make it go over by themselves but I'm counting on both teams helping this VERY low total to soar over.
Lenny Del Genio
Chicago White Sox +125
The White Sox took the first game of the series last night and we think they’ll win again today. Texas has struggled against winning teams this season posting a 7-16 record versus teams above .500. Danks gets the start tonight for Chicago and he’s been consistent again this season with a 3.62 ERA and 1.206 WHIP. He was roughed up a bit by the Cubs in his last start, but the two previous were very strong pitching 15 innings and allowing only 5 earned runs in both Sox wins. The White Sox haven’t hit a home run in their previous two games, setting up a very good situation. Chicago is 10-2 after not hitting one out of the park in two straight games. Texas starts Hunter tonight who was injured to start the season, spent time in the minors, and has now made 5 starts. Over his numbers are good but if you look at them closely you’ll find that his last two starts were against the weak hitting Astros and Pirates, and prior to that had to leave the Florida game after 2 1/3 innings. This young guy will face a much better White Sox team tonight and we think he’ll have a rough time! Play on White Sox.
KIKI SPORTS
1 Unit Atlanta -165
1 Unit White Sox +125
1 unit Paraguay +775
Dave Cokin
Arizona D-Backs
James Patrick Sports
5* Grand Slam - Texas Rangers -120
Having Rangers Ballpark almost assures Texas will score runs and the Rangers believe a healthy Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero will only enhance their ability to circle the bases. 3B Michael Young is a professional hitter and Ian Kinsler is a dead-fastball hitter with his quick bat. Nolan Ryan has altered the organization, bringing in aggressive hurlers that throw strikes and the results yielded the first winning season since 2004. Texas is (5-0) with Hunter on the mound, (7-0) at home versus left handed starters, (21-6) in their past (27) home games and the White Sox are just (3-8) in the past (11) meetings with the "Lawman".
KELSO
50 Units Texas -140
15 Units Giants/Rockies UNDER 7.5
10 Units Reds -120
Jeff Benton
15 DIME CINCINNATI REDS
15 DIME Blue Jays-Yankees UNDER
15 DIME NEW YORK METS
Reds
The Chicago Cubs are an abject disaster, and their season is spiraling down the toilet in a hurry. And for this to be a virtual pick-em game with red-hot Johnny Cueto on the mound for Cincinnati is a joke.
The Cubs have dropped the first two games by scores of 3-2 and 12-0. Going back to May 30, they have 10 wins against 20 defeats. They’ve been shut out five times in their last nine losses and scored one or zero runs 11 times in their last 20 losses; and they’ve scored three runs or fewer in 20 of their last 30 games, including 10 of the last 11 and the last five games in a row. Take away an 8-6 win at the White Sox on June 27, and Chicago has prodaced 12 runs in 10 games since June 22!
So how is an offense that is so inept – one that was batting .215 over a 10-game stretch PRIOR to yesterday’s 12-0 loss! – going to do anything today against Cueto? The Reds’ right-hander is 8-2 with a 3.74 ERA overall, including 2-1 with a 0.87 ERA in his last three trips to the mound (the one defeat was a 1-0 loss to Cliff Lee and the Mariners). In those three games, Cueto has held the Mariners (road), A’s (road) and Phillies (home) to 17 hits and six walks in 20 2/3 innings. What’s more, Cueto hasn’t given up a home run in five consecutive starts going back to June 7.
What about Cubs right-hander Randy Wells? He’s been below average and incredibely inconsistent. Going back to May 28, when he gave up five runs without recording an out in a home game against the Cardinals, he’s surrendered the following run totals: 5, 0, 6, 5, 2, 6 and 1. The Cubs’ record in those seven games? 1-6, including 1-3 at home. You know how much support Wells got in those seven games? 15 runs, and five of those runs came in a 10-5 loss to the White Sox. In fact, on Monday, Wells actually had a decent outing against the Pirates, giving up a run on three hits and four walks with six strikeouts in six innings. Yet Chicago lost 2-1 at home.
The Reds, who have won four straight against Chicago and six of eight on the season, are 9-2 in their last 11 games and come into today at 46-35 and in first place in the N.L. Central. The Cubs are a season-low 12 games under .500 at 34-46 (including 19-22 at Wrigley Field), and they’re 11½ games back of Cincinnati. Put it this way: Chicago is closer – MUCH closer – to last-place Pittsburgh (17 games behind) than first place.
Blue Jays-Yankees UNDER
Neither of those teams is hitting a lick right now, and I don’t expect that to change with two solid lefties on the hill in Toronto’s Ricky Romero and New York’s Andy Pettitte.
Romero has a 2.83 ERA overall and a 1.53 ERA in day games, and over his last three outings, Romero has given up just three runs (two earned) in 21 innings (0.86 ERA). Meanwhile, Pettitte has a 2.72 ERA overall and a 1.87 ERA in day games. Prior to his last start at the Dodgers on Sunday – he gave up five runs (four earned) in five innings – the veteran had held six straight opoonents to two earned runs or less while pitching at least seven innings in all six games.
For the season, Romero has given up two earned runs or fewer in 11 of 16 starts and only twice has he surrendered more than four runs in a game. Pettitte has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12 of 15 starts and he hasn’t had back-to-back bad outings once all year.
Back to these two struggling offenses: Prior to Friday’s five-run outburst in the 11th inning, the Blue Jays had scored a total of three runs in 28 innings. And going back to June 18, Toronto has tallied three runs or fewer in eight of 14 games. Then again, aside from leading the majors in home runs, the Blue Jays have been pathetic on offense all season long, batting .237 overall and .225 on the road. Against left-handed pitching, those numbers drop to .205 (overall) and .201 (on the road).
As for the Yankees, they’ve scored just nine runs in their last four games, and despite the likes of Jeter, Swisher, Teixeira, A-Rod, Cano and Posada in the everyday lineup, New York has been held to four runs or fewer in 11 of their last 15 games. The team’s batting average over the past 10 contests? Under .240 overall and less than .200 against left-handed pitching.
Finally, Pettitte and Romero matched up against each other in Toronto almost exactly a month ago (June 5), and they combined to give up four runs in a game that ended 3-2. Pettitte lasted 7 2/3 innings in that one, while Romero went eight. And like today, that contest was a day game. In fact, the start time here is a BIG reason to love the UNDER. Why? Because these teams played a day game yesterday and were likely out of the stadium about the time happy hour started – meaning they had the entire night to roam Manhattan! Don’t be surprised if the early wake-up call for this morning doesn’t result in some real sluggish bats against two very good pitchers. Play this one low!
Mets
Stephen Strasburg has been absolutely as good as advertised since coming up to the big leagues, posting a 2.27 ERA with 48 strikeouts in just 31 2/3 innings. But after winning his first two starts against the lowly Pirates (5-2) and Indians (9-4), the Nationals have lost three in a row behind their phenom, scoring a whopping one run TOTAL in those three defeats.
Strasburg isn’t the only Nationals pitcher who isn’t getting offensive help. Washington has scored six runs in its last three games and 16 runs in its last six (and seven of those 16 runs came in one game at Atlanta on Tuesday). Take it back further and the Nationals are in a 5-15 slump, scoring three runs or fewer in 14 of those 20 games.
Meanwhile, New York’s offense is humming pretty good right now, producing five runs or more in 12 of 18 games, including eight of the last 11. Will the Mets maintain that pace today in their first look at Strasburg? I wouldn’t bet on THAT in particular. But I would bet on the fact they won’t need to score that much because Washington won’t force them to.
That Nats will be facing right-hander R.A. Dickey here. True, Dickey is coming off his worst start of the season (five runs allowed in five innings of 10-3 loss to the Marlins). However, I’m tossing that game in the trash because it was played in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and every single one of the Mets-Marlins games in that bandbox flew over the total (not a single starting pitcher put up good numbers). Prior to that game on Monday, Dickey had delivered six quality starts in his previous seven, going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his previous four.
Finally, while Washington is in 5-15 slump, the Mets have won 18 of 26, including nine of 12 against the N.L. East, 13 of 18 against right-handed starters and seven of nine as an underdog (they’re also 5-0 in Dickey’s five starts as a pup).
Dwayne Bryant
Texas Rangers
Mike Lineback
5* (POD) Parlay - Boston Red Sox & St. Louis Cardinals
Always like backing Lester when he's on his game. Once he's in a groove, it normally lasts for a while. Lester 9 innings, 5 hits, 1 walk, 1 run, 9 strikeouts his last start @ San Francisco. Despite, a brief hiccup in Cleveland (6/10), he has allowed only 6 runs, spanning 7 starts & 50.1 innings, excluding Cleveland game (6 innings, 6 runs). Not to mention, he has dominated Baltimore in his career, winning 10 straight, 13 of 14 , including blanking the O's in two starts this seasons. (12 innings, 0 runs). Meanwhile, Baltimore start Guthrie, has lost 5 of his L6 starts overall, and 8 straight to the Red Sox. Boston have better bullpen, and despite some injuries, have better offense lineup. Looking for St. Louis start Carpenter to duplicate Jamie Garcia's dominating start Lnight (5-0). Carpenter (9-1, 2.70 ERA) has looked sharp his L3 starts. Team have won 13 of his 17 starts this season, including 8 of 9 at home. Plus, expecting Carpenter to be extra motivated after losing @ Milwaukee in April. Not to mention, the Cards need to some wins period. St. Louis 26-14, 65% in Busch Stadium. Milwaukee, 18-22, 45% away from Miller Park this season.
3.5* New York Mets/Washington Nationals UNDER 6.5
Very high probability rookie sensation Stephen Strasburg has another dominating performance on the mound this afternoon, especially since New York bats haven't seen him yet. Also, expecting Strasburg to step it up a notch after team have lost his L3 starts. Albeit, no fault to Strasburg. Washington have scored a grand total of 1 run in his last three starts (0, 0, 1). Nats, only 5 runs scored in first two games of series, only 3 runs or less, in 5 of their L6 overall. Mets start Dickey continues to pitch well (6-1, 2.98 ERA). Although, we bet against him in an Over play his last start, he still looked sharp. Mets have a strong bullpen. With Nats bats struggling, and Strasburg capable of a shutout every outing, like our chances here.