ASA
3* LA / Arizona Over 9
ASA
3* LA / Arizona Over 9
Arizona has been one of the strongest ‘over’ teams in baseball this season, but not lately, as the ‘under’ has hit in five of the past six games entering the weekend. In the past 15 games the Diamondbacks have topped five runs just twice, but all but three of those games were on the road. In those three home games Arizona scored 18 runs and the ‘over’ is 13-5 in the last 18 games in Arizona. For the season Chase Field has the highest ballpark OPS in baseball with 103 home runs hit and a .276 overall batting average. The ‘over’ is 23-13 in those games in Arizona.
The Dodgers have also been a strong 'over' the team for the season in thanks to an offense that is batting .268 for the season. The opportunities for runs should be common for the Dodgers on Saturday with Rodrigo Lopez on the mound as the veteran has not pitched well at home. For the season his home ERA is 5.09 accompanied by a 1.47 WHIP. Lopez has allowed three of more runs in seven of his last eight starts and home runs have been a problem with 15 already allowed this season.
Arizona also features the absolute worst bullpen in baseball, holding a 6.98 ERA for the season. Arizona has blown 14 save opportunities and picked up 18 losses among relievers as opponents collectively own a .305 batting average. Typically the Dodgers can be found among the league leaders for bullpen numbers but that has not been the case this season with much higher numbers than the last few seasons. In the last ten games the Dodgers have a 4.24 bullpen ERA and the team has lost several games in the late innings.
Clayton Kershaw has good numbers for the season but he rarely goes deep into games. He has also pitched far worse in night games as he ERA climbs to 4.22. In road games Kershaw has a WHIP of 1.36 and he has been fortunate to escape without significant run damage in several outings. Arizona also gave Kershaw trouble earlier this season as he barely lasted five innings. Four of the last eight meetings between these teams have gone to extra-innings and the Dodgers scored 26 runs in the last three-game set in Arizona. With Kershaw on the mound this total has to be kept in check but the ‘over’ in Arizona continues to make sense.
Oakland / Cleveland Over
The Indians do not appear to be a strong hitting team against left-handed pitching but the ‘over’ has hit in seven of the last nine home games that Cleveland has faced a left-handed starter. In the first series between these teams there were 28 runs scored with the ‘over’ hitting twice and those games came in Oakland where runs are much tougher to come by. Even with the Indians hitting just .248 as a team, 9.1 runs per game are being scored at Progressive Field and it ranks as an above average hitting park according to ballpark OPS.
Jake Westbrook is coming off an excellent start but he faced a cold Blue Jays offense and few outings have been that successful in Westbrook’s comeback season after missing all of 2009 and most of 2008 due to injury. Westbrook’s home ERA is 4.60 with a 1.49 WHIP and the A’s hit him hard earlier this season. Oakland got eight hits and four runs off Westbrook in an eventual 10-0 win as Westbrook lasted just five innings. In four of his last six home starts Westbrook has allowed at least four runs and the ‘over’ is 7-4 in his last eleven starts overall.
Dallas Braden was scratched from his last start with elbow stiffness but he is expected to give it a go Saturday. Braden has not picked up a win since his perfect game in early May and the results have been ugly of late. Over his last five starts Braden has allowed 43 hits in only 30 innings of work, giving foes a .323 batting average in that span. On the road Braden’s ERA is 5.03 this season and he has oddly had far worse results in night games. Braden has not struck out more than five batters in a game in any of his last eight outings and he will face a Cleveland lineup that is starting to put together some positive momentum.
The Indians swept a four-game home set with Toronto to start the week and after fully committing to several young players in the lineup the promise is finally starting to give some real results. The A’s have also been a hot hitting team with a .280 team average in the last ten games and scoring nearly five runs per game. The biggest reason to expect runs in this game will be in the late innings however as both bullpens have really struggled. The Indians have the highest bullpen ERA in the AL at 4.94 and the A’s are surprisingly not far behind with a 4.24 ERA. Oakland’s pen has really struggled on the road with a 5.43 ERA and both teams should get opportunities to cross the plate tonight.
Scott Rickenbach
10* LA Angels / Kansas City Over
Waiting on releasing our Top Play for Saturday has paid off as this line has moved down ever since opening up at a 9.5 yesterday. Now we can take the over 9 runs and lay a very fair price and there is nothing holding us back from giving this one our highest rating. Before getting into the ‘meat and potatoes’ of this write-up we first will take a look at some interesting trends that support this play. First off, the Royals are 8-2 to the over as a road dog of +150 to +175 this season. Secondly, even though the Angels first two games this month have stayed under the total, note that they went 35-15 to the over the prior two Julys combined. With warmer weather at this time of year we do see tendency for totals to jump and we expect to see more of the same this season as we go through the months of July and August. Also, the Angels wrapped up June by seeing just 3 of their last 11 games stay under the total. As for the Royals, yesterday’s game was the 12th straight time that they’ve had at least 9 hits in their game. They’ve struggled to get some timely hits but the fact that they’re averaging nearly 11 hits per game over their last 12 games shows just how well they’ve been seeing the ball.
Look for the Royals to enjoy success against Ervin Santana of the Angels. Even though he has compiled some impressive full season numbers, note that Santana has allowed 16 earned runs in his last 4 starts. During this stretch Santana has gone just 2-2 and he’s allowed 33 hits in 23.2 innings of work. Also, though he’s 4-3 in his 8 career starts against the Royals, note that he’s compiled a 4.50 ERA against Kansas City and they’ve hit him at a .295 clip. Santana has a 4.82 ERA at home this season and he’s allowed six homers in his last four home starts. The good news for the Angels sticks is that their lineup should come to life against the struggling Bruce Chen. The Royals left-hander threw over 100 pitches just to get through five innings in his most recent start. Chen has walked 11 batters in his last 16.2 innings of work. He’s also given up 3 homers in his last 2 road starts. Chen is just 2-5 on the road the last two seasons and he’s struggled much more on the road (5.68 ERA) than at home over his last two seasons. He’s been hit at a .292 clip in his four career appearances against the Angels. Los Angeles has bounced back and averaged nearly 7 runs per game when they are coming off of a game where they were held to 1 run or shutout. The last 7 times this has happened the following game has totaled 47 runs in these 7 occurrences. In other words, look for the Angels offense to bounce back tonight and, with one of the weaker bullpens in baseball supporting Santana, don’t be surprised if the Royals lineup is able to keep them in this game all the way! In other words, it should turn into a back and forth slugfest. Play OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game as a *10* Top Play selection
SEAN MICHAELS
AL GAME OF THE YEAR
25 DIME Detroit Tigers -1.5
Street Rosenthal of Handicappingtrends
*300 Texas Rangers -157
*200 San Diego Padres -160