Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday July 4,2009

Root
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CC - Cincinnati
Mill - Atlanta
Insiders - LA Dodgers
Perfect Play - Toronto

Tony Weston

35 Dime White Sox
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WHITE SOX - Earlier this season the Chicago White Sox couldn’t buy a win against the Kansas City Royals. But after a two-game set in early May, where the Royals picked up the sweep, the White Sox have owned Kansas City.

Since then, Chicago has gone 5-0 against the Royals and will add another to the win column today.
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Consider that the Sox haven’t just been hot against Kansas City, they’ve just been hot overall. Over their last 18 games the the White Sox are 14-4. In that stretch, and going a little further, Chicago has been impressive on the road, going 15-4 its last 19 away from the Windy City.

On the other side, the Royals have been their typical selves. They’ve lost 4 straight and are just 4-12 their last 16 games.
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Also keep in mind that on the mound Chicago will turn to Gavin Floyd, who has become one of their most reliable pitchers over the last month. Coming into today the White Sox have won 5 of his last 6 starts. In that 6-game stretch Floyd has allowed only 6 earned runs in 42 1/3 innings of work.
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Floyd will continue his brilliance and the White Sox will continue their domination of the Royals. Take Chicago on the road in this one.

Craig Davis

25 Dime ---- BLUE JAYS
10 Dime ---- BRAVES
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TORONTO BLUE JAYS (with Halladay and Wang) --- This one comes down to one simple thing... starting pitching, and I'm telling you right now that Roy Halladay will go at least seven innings and the Blue Jays will win this game by at least two runs.

Halladay is having another solid season, winning 10 games while losing just two with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Halladay has struck out 95 hitters thus far, walking just 14, and even despite coming back from the 15-day DL, Halladay pitched six solid innings in his last outing vs. Tampa Bay. Though he didn't get the win, Halladay still only allowed two earned runs in those six innings but didn't get any run support. Halladay's career numbers against New York look like this: 16-5, a 2.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and an opponents' batting average again of just .236. 5 times in his career he's gone the complete 9 innings out of 31 starts and there's a good chance he could do that again this afternoon. The Blue Jays are also 21-7 in Halladay's last 28 starts vs. the Yankees. Numbers don't lie.
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The Yankees counter with Chien-Ming Wang, and it goes without saying, he hasn't been good this year. Though he was decent in his very last outing (2 ERs in 5.1 innings pitched), his overall ERA (10.19) should tell you the story of how poorly Wang has pitched this year since coming off last year's devastating injury. The Yankees are still trying to find that 5th starter in the rotation, and so far the job belongs to Wang. The Yankees won game one of this series, 4-2, yesterday, which gives the Jays all the more reason to come out fighting today. Top play of the day on the Blue Jays over the Yankees.

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ATLANTA BRAVES (with Hanson) --- Much like the Blue Jays, this play comes down to my man-crush on Tommy Hanson. Hanson has been absolutely untouchable in his last three starts and there's no reason for me to think the Nationals have enough firepower to counter that today.

17.1 innings pitched, no earned runs, and a total of nine hits in those three games. That's pretty masterful even for the most experienced pitcher. We're dealing with a rookie, and I believe that plays right into our hands today. The Nats have not seen Hanson yet this year, so the advantage (at least for this time around) has to fall in the hands of the Braves this afternoon. Atlanta won the first game of this series last night, 9-8, and have won their last four games (after dropping four straight).
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John Lannan counters for the Nationals, and although he's been better lately, I'm not sold on the fact he can get the job done at home today. Lannan has faced the Braves twice already this season, dropping both games... one in Washington and one in Atlanta. Though his ERA is solid againt Atlanta, you can't ignore the fact he just can't figure out how to beat the Braves. My money is on the Braves this afternoon as your top bonus play of the day.

STU FEINER

BLUE JAYS @ YANKEES
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HALLADAY HAS BEEN UNHITTABLE 10-2 ON THE YEAR, 1-0 ALREADY AGAINST THE YANKEES THIS YEAR AND 16-5 LIFETIME. HE IS 4-0 ON THE ROAD AND HIS LAST 18 INNINGS HIS ERA IS 1.50. WANG 1-6 ON THE YEAR, 0-2 AT HOME AND HIS LAST 15 INNINGS HIS ERA 4.80 WILL NOT GET IT DONE HERE.
BLUE JAYS - 135 FOR A 100 DIME SELECTION

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BRAVES @ NATIONALS
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DON'T LOOK NOW BUT THE BRAVES HAVE THE BEST STARTING PITCHING IN THE NL EAST. HANSON IS ONE OF THE REASONS. HE IS 4-0 WITH A 2.48 ERA ON THE YEAR, HE IS 2-0 ON THE ROAD AND HIS LAST 17 INNINGS HE IS 3-0 WITH AN ERA OF 0.00. LANNAN HAS ONLY WON 6 OF HIS 16 STARTS AND HAS LOST TO THE BRAVES ALREADY THIS YEAR. HE WILL GET BEAT IN THIS SPOT.
BRAVES -135 FOR A 100 DIME SELECTION

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CARDS @ REDS
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FIRST PLACE CARDS WILL GET THIS ROAD "W" IN CINCY TODAY. THOMPSON OWNS THE REDS, 3-0 LIFETIME AND HE IS 2-1 ON THE ROAD THIS YEAR. OWINGS HAS ONLY WON 6 OF HIS 14 STARTS AND WILL NOT GET THE JOB DONE AGAINST ST LOUIS.
CARDS -110 FOR A 100 DIME SELECTION

Jake Timlin

400♦ Colorado Rockies -1 ½ Runs
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Fireworks at Coors field, I look for the Rockies to make easy work of Arizona tonight.

With last night’s series opening 5-0 win the Rockies continue to be the hottest team in the league having won 22 of their last 27 games. Well thanks to pitching of Cook tonight I look for the Rockies to continue to dominate.
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Aaron Cook hotter than hot is 5-0 with an ERA of 1.75 in his last five starts as the righty has only allowed 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts.

For Arizona, they counter having lost 12 of their last 14 games and throwing Yusmeiro Petit who is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.03 in five starts on the season.

Flat out, no way do I see tonight’s game being close as Colorado’s pitching and offense is too good for Arizona to match.
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In a blowout, go with the Rockies tonight at home.

Al DeMarco

5 Dime - COLORADO ROCKIES (Cook) - 1 1/2 Runs over Arizona (Petit)
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A lack of better choices has left Arizona in the position of starting Yusmeiro Petit tonight at Colorado. The righthander has been out since May 9 because of an inflamed shoulder and was less than sparkling in his rehab assignment, compiling a 6.89 ERA in five outings, allowing four homers in 15.2 innings. In fact, he was pulled from his most recent start on Tuesday in preparation for his return to the majors after allowing five hits and three runs -- two of which were earned -- in three innings of work.

Prior to landing on the disabled list, Petit had made five starts this season and the Diamondbacks had lost each outing as he allowed 37 baserunners in 22.2 innings with an ERA of 7.55. On of those starts was against the Rockies at home on April 21, a game in which he allowed eight hits and three runs in five innings of work. But the Colorado team Petit faced that day bears little resemblance to the one playing at Coors Field today.
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Friday's 5-0 victory in the series opener raised Colorado's record to 22-5 in its last 27 games. Along the way, the Rockies have won six straight and 11 of 13 at home.

Colorado's Aaron Cook has won each of his last five starts, allowing just 31 hits and seven runs over 36 innings for an earned run average of 1.75. He'll be facing an Arizona club that's lost 11 of its last 13, including three in a row, a stretch in which the Diamondbacks have scored a total of two runs, getting shutout twice, lowering their major league-worst batting average to .242.
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On the moneyline, Colorado is an overwhelming favorite. But on the Run Line, this game is priced at a virtual pick'em, making the Rockies an attractive wagering opportunity considering their recent run of success, Arizona's losing ways and inability to score, and the choice of starting pitchers by the Diamondbacks.

Trace Adams

1000* - St. Louis w/Thompson over Owings
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500* - Pittsburgh w/Duke over Miller

The Cardinals cooled down the Reds a little with the win last night, and I like them to do it once more this afternoon at Great American Ball Park with Brad Thompson on the hill.

Thompson sports 2 wins this year, and both of those wins have come away from home. Sure, he is not the "ace" of the St. Louis staff, but then again can you trust Micah Owings who seems to pitch well every other start?
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Ownings is coming off a 6 inning, 1 run win at Cleveland, but the start before was shellacked for 6 runs in 6 innings in a loss at Toronto.

For the season Owings is 5-7 with a 4.85 ERA.
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I will take my chances with Thompson getting some run support, and the Cards getting the "W".

1000♦ - St. Louis w/Thompson over Owings
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The Marlins are right in the thick of it in the NL East, but the same can be said for the Pirates being right in the thick of it in the NL Central, and Pittsburgh did open the holiday weekend with the 7-4 win last night.
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I will give the Bucs the play tonight in the underdog role, as Florida starter Andrew Miller still hasn't figured it out yet, and Pittsburgh did hang a loss on him back on April 20th, as the southpaw allowed 4 runs over his 5 innings of work that night.

Zach Duke has made 3 straight quality starts for Pittsburgh, and the fact is, the Pirates are now 4-0 in this year's season series against the Marlins.
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Nice value with the Pirates this afternoon in South Florida.
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500♦ - Pittsburgh w/Duke over Miller

ColeLandon

ATL -125

3-1

Tom Stryker's
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4th of July MLB Blowout
TAMPABAY RAYS
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Totals 4 You
Saturday, July 4th

July's National League Total of the Month
Arizona/Colorado under 9 1/2

Bases Best Bets
St. Louis/Cincinnati over 9 1/2
Seattle/Boston over 9 1/2
Detroit/Minnesota over 8 1/2
Tampa Bay/Texas over 11

Erin Rynning

over philly/playmaker

Billy Coleman (Northcoast)

4 1/2 white sox

3* atl under

3* houston

Gamehunter
UNDER ATL/WASH 1ST 5 INNS 4.5 RUNS (+105) (1.5 UNITS)

WASHINGTON +108 (1.5 UNITS)

CINCINNATI -108 (1.75 UNITS)

MILWAUKEE +152 (1.5 UNITS)

METS +137 (1.5 UNITS)

HOUSTON +189 (1.25 UNITS)

UNDER TOR/YANKEES 9 RUNS (-102) (2.5 UNITS)

UNDER WHITE SOX/KC 8.5 RUNS (-112) (1.5 UNITS)

OAKLAND +112 (1.5 UNITS)

TEXAS +122 (1.5 UNITS)

OVER BALT/ANGELS 10.5 RUNS (+102) (1.25 UNITS)

Discreat Cat
Saturday, July 4, 2009

Great day on Friday, going 2-for-2 and picking up over 5 units with winners on Gallant Gent ($9.00) and Strawberry Tart ($6.40). Mission Impazible was scratched.

Belmont - Race 8

#2 Convocation (5/1 ml)

Good-looking maiden winner moved sharply into a fast pace approaching the turn, then simply breezed through the lane with the rider sitting motionless for the entire stretch run. Really seems to have come to hand for Jerkens, and should offer a good price here on the class hike.

Belmont - Race 10

#4 Asiatic Boy (5/2 ml)

Dubai import ran a bang-up race in the Stephen Foster (i gave him out that day as well) after encountering some heavy traffic in the lane and having to shift out late for running room. Should have gotten an awful lot out of that race conditioning-wise, and now moves back to his new home base of Belmont Park, where he reportedly had been training extremely well heading into the Foster. Should like the surface here, and should definitely like the 1 1/4-mile distance. Expecting a strong effort here.

Hollywood - Race 5

#4 Majestic Diamond (3/1 ml)

New Zealand import ran a huge race over this course when coming off a similar layoff last fall, and a repeat of that performance (or even something a bit less) would be good enough here. Seems to be training okay and should give a representative effort. Not expecting him to get bet too hard today, and should offer some value.

Hollywood - Race 6

#5 Temerity (3/1 ml)

Maiden dropper for Ron Ellis came off his most recent layoff to run a strong 3rd behind the super-impressive return winner Supreme Summit, a race that definitely be good enough to win here on the class-drop. Gets first-time Lasix today, and has reportedly been training very sharply for his return.