King Creole
2* Athletics/Giants Under 7.5
Bruce Davidson will be working in the Bay Area, and he's on a VERY similar run as Joe Wolf. He's the #2 UNDER Umpire for the year with a 20-11 O/U record... and only 6.9 runs per game. And his current streak is 0-8 O/U in his last 8 games (since early May) and counting (with only 5.3 runs per game). His historical numbers are as solid as Joe Wolf's too. Davidson has gone 27-52-3 O/U in the last 3 seasons, and his K/BB ratio also fits right in at 2.1 to 1. He'll be aided by another series history with low-scoring results (8-21-2 O/U last 31 meetings IN San Francisco). The host Giants are on a current run of 6-19-3 O/U in their last 28 home games. That includes 4-15-2 O/U at home vs WINNING teams... and 5-14-1 O/U vs righties. The visiting Athletics are 0-6-1 O/U in their last 7 vs Southpaws.
1* Mariners/Padres Under 6.5
Joe West has been one of the most vocal Umpires thus far in the 2010 season. He likes to work a quick game, and comes in with a 4-9 O/U record on the season, which is not bad. But he's gone a perfect 0-4 O/U in his last 4 overall... with an average of 5.4 RPG. Also 1-5 O/U in his last 5 INTERLEAGUE games. We will be playing on a series history which has seen the Under cash at a 75% clip when playing IN San Diego. Four KEY Padre trends ALL indicate a low scoring result: Padres are 1-12 O/U on Saurdays... 0-6-1 O/U vs great pitchers with a WHIP of < 1.15 (Cliff Lee)... 0-4-1 O/U in their last 5 vs Southpaws... and 0-5 O/U in their last 5 roles as a home dog.
2* Marlins/Rays Under 8.5
We'll be getting behind THREE top-notch 'UNDER' Umpires on Saturday. In fact, they're ranked #1, #2, and #3 on the year! They come in on a combined streak run of 0-23 O/U. Jim Wolf (in Tampa) comes in on a unreal run of 0-11 O/U in his last 10 games. He hasn't gone Over since his FIRST game of the year. Vocal Joe West will be working in San Diego on a current 0-4 O/U run in his last 4 games. And in San Francisco, Bob Davidson is on a current streak of EIGHT straight 'Unders".
In the Marlins / Rays game, we note that Joe Wolf's record on the year is 1-11 O/U. Avg runs scored in his games is only 5.3. That's a full 1.5 runs LESS than any other Umpire (#2 is Paul Emmel with 6.8 RPG). When we look for a low-scoring Umpire, we want to se a K / BB ratio of 2 to 1 (or more). And we certainly have that in Wolf, who averages 16.3 K's per game and only 5.3 BB's (3.11 to 1 ratio). His overall strike percentage of 64.7% is also a string indicator of low-scoring results. Other pertinent data for Wolf includes a 1-4 O/U record in his last 4 INTERLEAGUE games... and 0-3 O/U in INDOOR parks (only 4.3 RPG) over the last 3 years. In NL parks, the numbers are average (26-26 O/U L3Y)... but in Amercan League parks, the results are 14-31-1 O/U in the same time frame.
Craig Davis
50 Dime Cubs
FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
100* Play New York Yankees (-220) over Houston
50* Play Detroit (-175) over Pittsburgh
Mike Lineback
Twins
Giants
Jays/Rockies Under 9.5
Phillies +1.5
Celtics -2.5
ATS Lock Club
5 Units Seattle -125
4 Units Atlanta +110
4 Units Texas/Milwaukee Over 10
Spokane -4 over Orlando
Cleveland +6.5 over Milwaukee
Greece +155 over South Korea
USA/England Over 2.5
Argentina/Nigeria Draw +325
Anthony Redd
50 Dime Cardinals
Super Sports Group
Philadelphia v. Boston
PICK: Red Sox RL (-1.5) +130 Game
PICK: UNDER 10 Game -110
Washington v. Cleveland
PICK: Indians RL (-1.5) +160 Game Best bet of the day #1
NY v. Baltimore
PICK: Mets ML ev Best bet of the day #2
Florida v. Tampa Bay
PICK: OVER 8.5 Game ev
PICK: Marlins ML +170
Seattle v. San Diego
PICK: Padres ML +113 Game
PICK: OVER 6.5 Game +110
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units NY Mets -110
1 Unit Arizona -145
1 Unit LA Dodgers -160
Bob Balfe
England -1
The United States team in 1994 was on the brink of breaking out and becoming a major threat in the World Cup. 16 years later and they really have not improved that much due to bad management and players who just are not good enough to complete at this level. England has a great squad and arguably the best offensive attack in the world and I just don't see team USA being able to keep up on the scoreboard and cash in. Don't bet with your heart...take England.
Boston Red Sox -155
Until the Phillies can start scoring runs on a day-to-day basis, you can not like their chances in Boston against a lineup that is beginning to find their groove. Blanton is an average pitcher at best but Dice K can definitely pose problems for the Phils the entire afternoon. Look for similar results today as last nights beatdown. Take Boston.
JR O'Donnell
3* Baltimore -110
Baltimore is favorite for a reason as we will fade the Met's tonight. The Vegas lines makers are setting up the pubic tonight as Hisanori Takahashi (4-2, 3.80 ERA), who toes the rubber the tonight as the Balt O's will scratch out a much needed win as Takahashi is 0-1 with a 10.61 ERA the last 2 ball games. O's counter with Brian Matusz has been sharp the last few games. We will be going ugly and picking spots to fire away on. The O's left 14 men on last night and we will have a nice value winner tonight.
Tony George
Seattle -125
Getting Cliff Lee who leads the AL in WHIP at .92 on the year against a poor hitting Pads team, at this number is a gift. Anytime I get one of the best pitchers in bases at less than -130 against an average team at best is always a take. Leblanc for the Padres has dropped 5 out of his last 6 stars and doubt he will have much run support in this one. From that standpoint the value lies with the small fave today. Play 1 Unit on Seattle
Dwayne Bryant
Minnesota -122
Both Derek Lowe and Nick Blackburn have struggled lately. Lowe gave up 7 runs in just 4 innings in Arizona in his last start. Blackburn allowed a total of 10 runs and 20 hits in his last two starts, spanning just 6 1/3 innings of work. So which pitcher has a better chance to turn it around tonight? I'd say, based on home/road splits and past results vs. the opposing lineup, it should be Blackburn.
It should be noted that Blackburn's last two starts were on the road, where he has pitched MUCH worse this season. But the Twins are home at Target Field today and that is good news for Blackburn. In five home starts this season, Blackburn is 4-0 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The Twins have won all five of Blackburn's home starts this season and have given him an average of 7.8 runs of support. Blackburn also has a nice edge in that only two Braves hitters have ever faced him; Eric Hinske is 1-for-4 and Melky Cabrera is 1-for-6. So Blackburn should roll through the first four or five innings.
Lowe has pitched much better at home this season. Unfortunately for Lowe, he's on the mound in Minnesota tonight. In six road starts this season, Lowe owns a whopping 6.82 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Opponents have a .400 OBP when Lowe pitches away from home! To make matters worse, several Twins have faced Lowe from his AL days and have hit him well. Joe Mauer is 5-for-7 (.714) against him, while Justin Morneau is 4-for-9 (.444, 1 HR) against Lowe. Delmon Young is 2-for-3 with a homer; Michael Cuddyer is 1-for-4 with a homer; Nick Punto is 2-for-4 with a triple; Jason Kubel and Brendan Harris are both 1-for-3 against Lowe. I have to think that at least a few of those guys will get to Lowe again tonight.
Just like I wrote yesterday, we also have the bullpen edge here. Atlanta's pen owns a 3.81 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season, while Minnesota's pen sports a 2.69 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home.
Bottom line: I have to give the edge to Blackburn over Lowe in this one, based on their home/road splits and history (or lack there of) vs. the opposing hitters. We also have the bullpen edge and we know just how tough the Twins are at home (21-10). That's more than enough for me. Take Minnesota/Blackburn over Atlanta/Lowe.
Sportsbook Guru
2 Units St. Louis +127
2 Units San Diego +110
2 Units Boston/Philadelphia Over 10
2 Units Chicago White Sox +125
2 Units Texas +100
Paul Leiner
50* Nationals +110
25* Rangers -110
KELSO
25 Units Red Sox -145
15 Units Cubs -145
10 Units Angels +145
3 Units Royals +165