Marc Lawrence
4 Units Cubs
3 Units Seattle
Rocketman
4* Mariners
3* NY Mets
BOB AKMENS
10* Seattle
10* San Francisco
10* Cubs
ASA
Toronto Blue Jays / Colorado Rockies Under 9.5
Jason Hammel did not enjoy a strong April but after a brief absence from the rotation Hammel has rebounded to deliver solid results in his recent starts. Over his last three outings the Rockies are 3-0 and he has allowed just three runs in nearly 20 innings of work. For the season Hammel owns a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio as he has allowed just 14 free passes in nearly 52 innings. Hammel also owns far superior overall numbers in home games and the ‘under’ is 4-1 in his home starts. Colorado also provides reliable relief pitching with a 3.25 bullpen ERA for one of the best marks in the National League.
Brandon Morrow’s talent has never been questioned but he has not often been consistent. A few tough outings have hurt his overall numbers but his strikeout rate is still among the best in baseball. Morrow has 74 strikeouts in just 64 innings of work and while his ERA is an above average 5.38 he has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last ten starts. In his last two starts he has allowed just seven hits and two runs in 14 innings going against two of the best lineups in baseball as he faced Tampa Bay and New York. Morrow has not been as sharp on the road but he will face a slumping Colorado offense.
Coor’s Field has been a high-scoring park but the ‘under’ has had great success as the totals are often inflated based on the reputation of the stadium. The ‘under’ is 17-10-1 this season in Colorado and 11-5-1 in the last 17 home games. Colorado’s offense is in a rut, failing to top four runs scored in nine of the last eleven games while the ‘under’ rides a 9-1-1 run. In the last ten games the Rockies are batting just .236 against right-handed pitching and a facing a pitcher that is quite adept at making bats miss will make it tough for the Rockies to build scoring chances. The Rockies lost three of four to Houston in the previous series and Colorado scored just eleven runs in the four games.
Entering this series Toronto had failed to top three runs scored in five straight games and the Blue Jays had scored six or fewer runs in 15 consecutive games. Toronto is batting just .234 as a team in the last ten games and the Blue Jays have struggled to score on the road, batting just .226 south of the border. The Blue Jays do have home run power throughout the lineup but the team is batting just .242 overall this season. The ‘under’ is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams and 14-3 in the last 17 Colorado Saturday games this season and last.
Bob Valentino
30 Dime New York Yankees -1½
Executive
600% Rockies
Scott Rickenbach
10* Tampa Bay / Florida Over
After yesterday’s 14-9 game (27 hits), some might expect a big drop-off in the next game after everything seemed to fall into place for the hitters in Friday’s match-up. However, we absolutely feel it is justified to expect the hot hitting to continue. The Marlins have averaged 10.4 hits per game in their last 10 games. Their lineup has been “coming to life” to say the least. The Marlins have gone over the total in 6 of their last 10 games. As for the Rays, they’ve averaged 10.3 hits per games in their last 12 games. Tampa Bay has stayed under the total just 3 times in these 12 games. While the Marlins have averaged 7.5 runs per game in their last 4 games, the Rays have amazingly scored 9 runs or more in four of their last five games. Florida is 18-7 to the over this season (and 72-39 to the over the last three seasons) when they play a game with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Also, Florida is 22-11 to the over in interleague games the last three seasons. The Marlins also are 18-11 to the over this season when they are off of a win. The Rays pitching staff has allowed 9 hits or more in 9 of their last 11 games. The Marlins pitching staff has allowed 9 hits or more in 10 of their last 11 games. While this pitching match-up includes a pair of respected starting pitchers today, neither should be expected to enjoy much success in this match-up.
Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins has allowed 17 earned runs on 33 hits in his last 21.2 innings of work. Also, even though Nolasco is 2-1 in his career against Tampa Bay, note that the Rays have pounded him at a .296 clip and handed him an ugly 6.88 ERA. Nolasco has a 4.71 ERA in night games this season. Also, he has a 4.79 ERA indoors in his career. Matt Garza of the Rays has fantastic numbers against the Marlins in his two career starts against them. However, not only does Florida’s lineup come into this game on a hot run, Garza is currently on a cold streak. The Rays right-hander has given up 13 earned runs on 21 hits and 9 walks in his last 17 innings of work. That equates to nearly two baserunners per inning plus an ugly ERA that is nearly a full 7. Garza has a 2.79 ERA on the road this season but a 4.20 ERA at home. Also, Garza has a 2.29 ERA in day games but a 3.63 ERA in night games. Interesting enough, the Rays right-hander who has spent much of his career pitching in domes, is 4-0 outdoors this season but 2-4 indoors with a 3.86 ERA. Garza’s current form entering this start, and the fact that the Marlins bats are red hot, are more important factors than the fact that Garza has had a pair of good starts against Florida in his career. Also, as for the Marlins, their bullpen struggles continue and Nolasco continues his recent struggles as well. The extra value with the very low total posted on this game helps to raise this play to our highest level. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* New York / Houston Over
The Astros are 4-1 to the under in their last five games. The Yankees are 5-1 to the under in their last six games. However, on a warm afternoon in the Bronx, with two starting pitchers likely to struggle, we won’t hesitate to back the over in this one. This is even with knowledge that Alex Rodriguez is expected to miss this afternoon’s game. The key is that Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros has struggled on the road throughout his career and that continues to be the case this season. The Houston southpaw is 1-5 with a 5.49 ERA away from home and he’s been hammered at a .325 clip on the road this season! In his only career start against the Yankees he was rocked for five earned runs in five innings. Also, his career record on the road is 21-36 with a 5.22 ERA and opponents have hit 36 points higher against him when he’s on the road compared to when he’s at home. Rodriguez has been hit at a .324 clip by right-handed batters this season and has an ugly 1.72 WHIP against them as walks have also been an issue against righties. The concern with this for Wandy is that, even with Alex sitting this one out for the Yankees, the Yanks lineup will still be loaded with right-handed lumber. The Yankees have just three left-handed bats among the position players on their roster. Everyone else is a righty or a switch-hitter. As for the Astros bullpen, their ERA ranks them 26th out of the 30 teams in the majors!
Houston won’t be the only team suffering through pitching issues today. Javier Vazquez gets the start for the Yankees and, though he’s coming off of a strong start, he doesn’t have the usual ‘interleague edge’ edge here. That’s because he’s spent much of his career in the National League and, in fact, the Astros roster of position players has a combined 92 at bats against Vazquez. They are familiar enough with him that we feel comfortable expecting their recent surge at the plate to continue. Before struggling some in their last two games, the Astros had averaged 10 hits per game in their last 9 games! Vazquez is getting hit 50 points higher at home than on the road. Also, his ERA in day games is more than a run higher than what he’s compiled in night games. Against lefties he’s been hammered at a .283 clip and has compiled a 1.73 WHIP. The Astros will have two left-handed bats and two switch-hitters in the lineup and there are other right-handed hitters like Pedro Feliz, Jason Michaels and Carlos Lee that have plenty of experience against Vazquez. Also, the Yankees bullpen has only been mediocre this season. The Yanks are 6-3 (67%) to the over in Saturday games this season, 15-10 to the over in home games this season, and 17-11 to the over when facing a team with a losing record on the season. Last night’s game was 3-2 in the top of the 2nd and then died. Don’t look for a repeat of that on a warm afternoon in the Bronx. Yesterday’s game was a tight one-run game and the Yankees are 6-3 (67%) to the over when they are off of a one-run game. Play OVER the total in the New York Yankees game as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Nelly
1* Los Angeles Angels +140 over Los Angeles Dodgers
The Angels dominated Friday night with a 10-1 win and Los Angeles is being undervalued again in this match-up. The Angels are 13-4 in the last 17 games and while this is technically a 13th consecutive road game the travel is obviously simplified in this cross-town rivalry. The Angels are a winning team in road games this season and while the Dodgers have been very strong at home the recent home schedule has provided several favorable match-ups. John Ely has solid numbers for the Dodgers but he is not a strong strikeout pitcher. He allowed his first home runs of the season in his last start and he has also benefited from facing few quality offensive teams. The Angels will present a much greater challenge in this game and Ely has failed to pick up a win in his last three starts. Scott Kazmir has been inconsistent but he has strong numbers over his last six starts. In his last two outings he allowed just five hits and one run in each game and both of those games came on the road. The Dodgers are also a far worse hitting team against left-handed pitching including batting just .235 in the last ten games. That match-up edge should help the Angels and Kazmir and both bullpens have done their job in recent weeks. The Angels have been the hotter offensive team with a .304 team average in the last ten games The Angels are also 6-3 in the last nine games at Dodger Stadium, again catching great dog value after a big win last night.
The Duke's Sports
Kansas City (+160) for 2 Units
The Royals, which are 11-4 in interleague road play vs righties, have given trouble to the Reds. KC is now 4-0 in their last 4 meetings with Cincy and we like them here with Bannister. KC has won 5 straight with Bannister on the hill and they're 4-0 with him as a dog. Last June, Bannister pitched 8 scoreless inning vs Cincy. On ther other hand, the sizzling hot May run for Johnny Cueto came to a screeching halt in June (9.82 ERA in 2 starts). The Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 Saturday games with Cueto, and they're 1-5 as an interleague favorite.
Al Demarco
10 Dime Boston Red Sox -1.5
Freddy Wills
5-Dime POD - Minnesota Twins -120
It's hard not to come and back this team once again. To me they have a nice pitching advantage and you may think I'm crazy looking at Blackburns numbers, but he's pitching at home. That's a career trend that he has enjoyed with a career ERA of 3.53 vs. his 4.98 on the road. This year it has been no different and Blackburn who has a 3.31 ERA at home is primed to have a solid start after 2 poor road starts. In his last 4 home starts vs. solid hitting teams in Yankees, Brewers, Tigers, and Orioles he is 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA. Better yet Atlanta has never faced Blackburn. Derek Lowe goes for the Braves and he has a 6.82 ERA on the road, and he goes against one of the better hitting teams here today. The Twins average 5.58 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home and have a .288 average. IN their last 5 they are at .309 and 6.49 so you could consider them to be hot. Lowe has 5 starts against the Twins in his career between 2003 and 2006 and he's got a 8.51 ERA. The Twins have 46 AB vs. him and a .391 average. So throw in Blackburns dominance at home, the fact that Atlanta has never seen him, and Lowes performance on the road and vs. the Twins and the Twins ability to hit RHP this year and you have the ingredients of a 5-Dime POD. Throw in how well the Twins have played in inter league play? Twins now 57-20 in their last 77 inter league games. They are also 54-18 in their last 72 as a home favorite -110 to -150. While the Braves are just 5-16 in their last 21 as an under dog.
Rob Vinciletti
Angels vs. Dodgers
Pick: Over 8.5
What we want to do is play the over for home teams off a home favored loss of 5 or more runs if the total was 8 or less and they scored 2 or less runs and tonight's opponent is off a road dog win and scored 10 or more runs. These games have gone over every time and average 13 runs per game. The Angels are 4-0 to the over in interleague games and have a horrible road bullpen era at 5.62. The Dodgers have J.Ely going tonight and in his 5 home starts 4 of the 5 have gone over the total. The Angles will counter with lefty S.Kazmir who has a 5.13 road era. Look for this one to go over the total.
Tony Karpinski
10* Seattle Mariners -122
The former Cy Young winner is rounding into form in recent outings. Lee has not lost a start since May 16 and has been stellar in his last three trips to the mound. He’s given up a total of four earned runs on 16 combined hits while striking out 25 batters in those games. This is great value on one of the best pitchers in the AL this year. His WHIP is #1 in the AL at a pretty amazing .92. SD is coming off a 9th inning walk off win and they are not a great hitting team. SEA has been hitting much better lately and they try to keep it up today. Lee will be out to erase a rough start against the Padres earlier this season, when he gave up seven earned runs on 11 hits in just 6.1 innings. Seattle is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against San Diego. Seattle is 35-16 their last 51 Interleague games vs. lefty starters. Its road revenge for a healthy LEE and Seattle gets the win Saturday night.
Wunderdog
Shock vs. Mercury
Pick: Under 187
The Phoenix Mercury are a lot of fun to watch as they like to get up and down the court like the NBA's Golden St. Warriors. The problem is these games, at ten minutes a quarter, don't allow for much margin of error with a substantial total and even the Mercury has trouble topping big numbers. This will be the second highest total they have had to play to in their history and the 21st time they will be playing to a total of 180 or more. The first 20 shows the difficulty getting over the top of a big number as they are 14-6 to the UNDER in the 20 played with a total set at 180 or higher. I'll play this one UNDER the total.
BIG AL
England
Analysis: At 2:30 pm, on Saturday, our Group Stage Game of the Year is on England over the United States. This may well be the most anticipated game of the 1st round of fixtures, and England should definitely defeat the USA in a hard fought contest. England comes into the game as favorites @ -200, and are worthy of laying the price. The USA team,admittedly, is hard working and has some very good players such as Landon Donavan, Clint Dempsey and expert goalkeeper Tim Howard. Having said this, England will be slightly too strong in this opening fixture. The England squad is full of world class talent, none more so than Wayne Rooney, who ranks as my favorite player to watch. Look for this superstar to score at some point in the match. Rooney is England's main striker who provides so many of the goals and will undoubtedly be England's top scorer at the tournament. One of the keys for this game is that Rooney will be fresh, given it's the first game, and he will want to make a good start to the tournament in a possible bid to become the highest scorer at the World Cup. Take England. Also, if your book offers Prop bets, I like Rooney to score the first (or last) goal of the game @ +333, and I also forecast England and USA to finish 1st and 2nd in the group (ahead of Algeria and Slovenia), and that Prop is priced @ +138.
Cubs
Analysis: At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Chicago White Sox. The battle for bragging rights in the Windy City is up for grabs once again and that ceremonial title is likely the only prize these two teams will be shooting for in 2010 as both clubs have been very disappointing with the Sox currently languishing about 8.5 games out in the AL Central and the Cubs in almost exactly the same situation over in the NL. The interesting question today will be if Cubs righthander Carlos Silva - the most surprising starter in baseball through the first 2+ months - is going to regress when he faces American League hitting, something he had a lot of problems with in 2009 when he pitched for Seattle. In his first test against the AL back on May 23, Silva survived and won his sixth game of the season although it was not one of his better starts. But that start was against the Rangers in Arlington and this afternoon figures to be a better spot for him at home against a weaker White Sox lineup. Even in one of his good seasons, lefty Mark Buehrle had trouble facing the Cubs at Wrigley Field as he is just 2-2 with a 5.63 ERA in six career starts there and since this is anything but a good season for Buehrle, it could be even worse for him this afternoon. Plus the Cubs are hitting southpaws very well this season with a .274 team batting average against lefties. Silva is going for incredibly his ninth win without a loss and the Wrigley faithful will no doubt come out to strongly support him. Take the Cubs.