Bobby Maxwell
300 Unit OAKLAND A'S
Frank Patron
10000 Unit Washington +115
PHILLY-CONNECTION
3* METS -108
Young Guns
5* Angels
TIM TRUSHEL
20* Baltimore Orioles
POWER PLAY WINS
KC Royals/Cincinnati Reds Over 8.5
Rob Vinciletti
LAA Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers took it on the chin at home last night losing big to the Angels. That loss sets them up in a system that has cashed 90% of the time. What we want to do is play on home favorites off a home favored loss of 5 or more runs if they scored 2 or less runs and the total was 8 or less. These rebounding homers win by nearly 4 runs per game. The Dodgers turn it up a notch when playing off a home loss as they have won 7 of 8 in their next game. The Dodgers are also 15-6 as a home favorite from -125 to -175. In the pitching matchup the Dodgers have J. Ely making the start and he is 5-0 at home with a 2.56 era. The Angels counter with lefty S. Kazmir. Kazmir has a 5.13 road era and the Angels have a 5.62 road bullpen era. Look for the Dodgers to get the win tonight in game 2 of the series.
Mr. East
Angels vs. Dodgers
Pick: Under 8.5
It has become very evident in major league baseball this season that lefthand pitching has become superior, and teams in general are having a lot more difficulty generating runs vs lefthand pitching, than righthand pitching. There are certain teams and game situations, where I have implemented a system that has proven to be highly successful, taking this market inefficiency, and turning it into cash. The system has produced over 100 units of profit in the space of just about one month. I will continue to hand pick these games accordingly, as the winners have been coming at a very high rate of return.
Wunderdog
Mariners vs. Padres
Pick: Under 6.5
It doesn't seem to matter where Cliff Lee pitches, he is an ace on any mound. He has pitched for three different teams in his last five starts, but the results are the same as teams aren't scoring much against him. Lee has allowed three runs or less in 35 of his last 44 starts. Wade LeBlanc of the Padres is certainly up to the task of pitching low scoring games. LeBlanc has made ten starts with three of them resulting in no runs allowed and eight of the ten allowing two or less. The Mariners boast a 39-19-2 mark to the UNDER as a favorite from -110 to -150, while the Pods are 36-15-4 in their last 55 as a dog to the UNDER. I'll play the UNDER in this one.
RJ Robbins
Texas Rangers
Royals / Reds Over 8.5
SPORTS UNLIMITED
3* Milwaukee Brewers
TEDDY COVERS
Detroit Tigers Under 9
TB Rays Over 8.5
JOHN RYAN
25* Reds/Royals Over 8.5
Roz Juarbe
Interleague Game of the Year - NY Mets.
The Orioles have the worst offense in the AL and face a pitcher, Hisanori Takahashi (4-2, 3.80 ERA), they have never seen before. He has 50 strikeouts in 47 innings. The Mets are playing good ball and back in the pennant race with the Braves and Phillies. Lefty Brian Matusz goes for Baltimore and he's 2-6 with a 5.10 ERA, and the Orioles are 1-8 his last nine starts. Play the NY Mets.
Hollywood Sports
25* Interleague Total of the Year
Royals / Reds
Play: Over
Kansas City (26-36) won Game 1 of this series with their 6-5 win in eleven innings last night. We look for the Reds' offense to bounce-back against the Royals' Bannister. While he has a 6-3 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP for the season, Bannister's deeper sabermetrics are troubling. He has a groundball BABIP (Batting Average of Balls put In Play) of .165 as compared to the .219 average all KC pitchers have regarding their GB BABIP. This suggests that Bannister has actually been a bit lucky regarding where the groundballs he is allowing are actually going. As this number regresses back to the Royals' defensive mean, he will then surrender even more base hits than he is already allowing. Additionally, Bannister is giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits as indicated by his .176 ISO** (ISOlated power, slugging pct. minus batting avg). This high ISO is a dangerous combination with that low GB BABIP as it suggests more groundball base-hits will soon accompany these extra-base hits. Furthermore, Bannister has very stark road-home split stats as he performs worse on the road this season where he has a 6.18 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP as opposed to his respectable 3.45 ERA and 1.26 WHIP at home. This is consistent with his '09 split stats: 5.22 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP on the road versus a 4.22 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home. The Reds (35-27) should light up Bannister as they are hitting .297 against right-handers at home. And in Bannister's last 5 games where he was starting with a Total set at 7-8.5, the game went Over 4 times.
We are similarly concerned with Cueto. While he is 5-1 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, he has struggled over his last two starts as he has a 9.82 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP over that stretch. Cueto's .241 GB BABIP is low in relation to the Reds' overall .259 GB BABIP for the season which suggests that, like Bannister, he has been a bit fortunate regarding the balls he is allowing into play. Furthermore, Cueto does not fare well at home in the Great American Ballpark. At first glance, his 3.45 home ERA compares favorably to his 4.89 road ERA. But we take note of the fact that Cueto has a 1.32 WHIP and .273 opponent's batting average at home versus a 1.23 WHIP and .256 opponent's batting average when on the road. Last season, Cueto also struggled at home given his 5.16 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and .294 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 3.83 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .236 opponent's batting average on the road. The Royals should fare well against Cueto as they are hitting .276 against right-handers. Additionally, in Cueto's last 17 home starts where the Reds were favored, the Over is 13-3-1. And in the last four games where the Reds were favored at home, the game went Over all four times. Additionally, the Over is 20-8-1 in the Royals last 29 road games when they were an underdog in the +151 to +200 price range. Furthermore, the Over is 4-1 in the Royals last five games and 7-3 in the Reds last ten games when both of these teams allowed at least five runs in their last game respectively. Together, these team trends produce our specific 52-16-2 combined winning angle for this game. Both of these clubs offense should be on display for this matchup. 25* MLB Interleague Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Royals and the Cincinnati Reds.