Joel Tyson
40 Dime Chicago White Sox
Michael Cannon
30 Dime Chicago White Sox
2-Minute Warning
Phillies - 1.5
Jay McNeil
30 Dime TB Rays
Joe D'Amico
St Louis Cardinals -1.5
St. Louis is back on top of the N.L. Central at 37-20. Ace Adam Wainwright gets the nod. He is 9-4 with a 2.47 ERA. The right-hander is a perfect 6-0 at home with a 1.96 ERA. The team has a powerful lineup consisting of Albert Pujols, who is batting .310, with 15 HR’s, and 50 RBI’s. The Cardinal’s host an A’s squad that has dropped 3 in a row and 7 of their L10. They have Ben Sheets throwing today. He is 0-4 with a 7.28 ERA on the road TY. The right-hander is 6-14 lifetime vs. St. Louis. The A’s are 1-6 their L7 vs. the Card’s, 0-4 their L4 games played in St. Louis, 1-5 their L6 vs. RH starters, 1-7 their L8 Inter League road games, and 1-6 in Sheets’ L7 road starts. The Cardinal’s are 6-2 their L8 at home, 4-1 their L5 vs. the A.L. West, and 42-19 in Wainwright’s L61 starts. Take St. Louis on the RUN LINE.
EXECUTIVE
600% Rockies
NSA
20* Red Sox
20* A's/Cards Under 7.5
20* Tigers
MIKE LINEBACK
Twins/Phillies Over 9.5
Dodgers/R.Sox Over 11
Seabass
100* Phillies
100* Tex RL
100* TB
50* NY UN - No idea what NY team
50* Angles
200* Steam Play SD RL
Chris Jordan
300♦ Atlanta Braves
Jeff Benton
30 DIME SF Giants
What an enormous pitching advantage San Francisco has in this one, as Matt Cain goes up against Toronto’s Jesse Litsch. Cain is 6-4 with a sick 2.05 ERA, but that only tells part of the story. Over his last five starts, Cain has given up just three runs (two earned) in 41 innings – that’s a 0.44 ERA! And if not for a 1-0 loss at the A’s that started this increaible five-start stretch – Cain allowed just the one run, and it was unearned – the hard-throwing right-hander would be working on a five-game winning streak (he’s won his last four in a row by a composite score of 18-3!).
Cain has been sensational all season on the road, too, allowing just nine earned runs in 42 2/3 innings (1.90 ERA). And with this being an early start in Toronto, it’s interesting to note that Cain is 2-2 with a 1.56 ERA in five day games.
What about Litsch? Well, all you need to know is that he made his first big-league start since April 2009 on Sunday, and he lasted all of 2 1/3 innings at Colorado, alloewing seven runs in a 10-3 loss. Since the start of last season, Litsch has started three games in the majors and given up 16 runs in 11 1/3 innings (12.70 ERA). What’s more, dating to 2007, the Blue Jays have lost seven of Litsch’s last 10 games against winning teams and four of his last five interleague starts.
Three more salient points to make:
1) Both these starting pitohers come from the right side, which is key because the Giants entered this three-game weekend series batting .302 against right-handers in their previous 10 games, while Toronto was hitting .205 in its last 10 against righties.
2) Even though they fell short in a 3-2 loss last night, the Giants are still 7-2 in the last nine meetings with the Blue Jays.
3) San Francisco (5-2 last seven games, all vs. the A.L.) are hotter than the Blue Jays (4-7 last 11 overall, 3-8 last 11 interleague games)
Bottom line: The Blue Jays – who have hit more home runs than any team in baseball this season by a mile – rely way too much on the long ball to score runs. Well, Cain has served up just four long balls all season, including just one in 42 2/3 innings on the road. Now he’s facing a club that’s been held to three runs or less in 10 of its last 12 games.
Nelly
INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE YEAR
3* Twins / Phillies Under 9.5
Citizens Bank Park has generally been a high-scoring stadium in past seasons but this year batters own a .247 batting average and just 8.5 runs per game have been scored on average. Philadelphia still has the reputation and valuation of a high-scoring offense but the Phillies simply have not been scoring runs. Philadelphia owns a .256 batting average for the season and in the last ten games that average slips to .236. Over the last 27 games Philadelphia is averaging just 2.8 runs scored per game and while the Phillies have slipped in the NL East standings they have remained in contention because the pitching staff has performed well.
Cole Hamels struggled early in the season but he has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last eight starts. Hamels owns a nearly 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and his home ERA is just 2.81 for the season. The 'under' is 5-1 in his six home starts this season and while he does allow home runs on occasion he has pitched better than his overall numbers indicate. The 'under' is actually 7-1 in his last eight starts and the Philadelphia bullpen has done a great job with a 3.64 ERA for the season.
Minnesota's bullpen was also a question mark entering the season but the Twins have received outstanding results in the late innings with a 2.94 bullpen ERA for the season. That average falls to 2.10 over the last ten games and the Twins should expect a strong start from Kevin Slowey this afternoon. The Braves hit Slowey hard in his last start but he has allowed just two runs in nearly 21 innings in his prior three outings. Slowey is one of the best control pitchers in the American League as he has allowed just 16 walks this season and he has nearly identical overall numbers whether pitching at home or on the road.
Minnesota has a strong overall team average at .270 but there is a big drop-off on the road where the Twins are right near .500. Minnesota is hitting only .252 in road games this season and the lineup is much better suited to face right-handed pitching, particularly with the recent injuries making the lineup even more lefty-heavy. In the last ten games the Twins are batting just .240 against southpaws and most Twins hitters have never faced Hamels as these teams have not met since 2004. These teams have been two of the strongest 'under' teams in baseball this season as the 'under' is 34-27-5 in Twins games and 36-27-1 in Phillies games.
Friday's game went well 'over' but the Phillies were fortunate to cash in several big hits, scoring nine runs on just eleven hits. All of Minnesota's scoring came after the game was out of hand and the bullpen was looking to simply finish out the game rather than make strikeout pitches. There were very few runners left on base in last night's game and the Twins are also hit into more double plays than any other team in baseball. Look for another low-scoring game in a match-up of two excellent pitchers who rarely allow free passes and two strong bullpens.
Scott Rickenbach
6* Philadelphia Money Line (-) vs Minnesota
As long-time followers know, we play mostly totals in baseball. When we do play sides, we most often play underdogs and small favorites. We do not play big favorites. In fact, we rarely even step into what we call the “moderate price range” which is where the Phillies are price today. The reason we make exception is when we feel the edges are so strong that it warrants laying a moderate price like this. The Phillies are currently in the -150 range and so we drop our rating to our lowest rating, 6*, and we invest in the big edges! Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels has simply been in the zone. The Phillies southpaw has allowed three runs or less in eight consecutive starts. He’s also compiled a 2.81 ERA at home where Hamels has only allowed a .224 BAA. The left-hander has simply dominated opposing left-handed bats as he’s held them to a miniscule .141 BAA. That is bad news for the Twins as Minnesota’s relies on key left-handed bats like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, and Denard Span. In addition, the Twins like to use Jim Thome in certain match-ups and now that doesn’t make sense today as they face a tough southpaw. Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Span are 4 of the Twins top 6 RBI leaders so far this season and they face a stern test today.
Unlike the Twins facing a tough lefty, the Phillies lineup is loaded with left-handed pop that should enjoy facing Minnesota right-hander Kevin Slowey. The Twins righty is coming off of an ugly outing versus the Braves where Atlanta pounded him. Slowey has been pounded on the road this season where he’s been hit at a .319 clip Also, the Twins right-hander is 6-1 at night but note his 1-3 mark in day games where he’s been hammered at a .318 clip and compiled a 5.81 ERA! These numbers are no fluke either as Slowey has been hit 51 points higher on the road compared to at home throughout his career. Also, he’s 26-9 in night games in his career but 7-10 in day games with a 5.95 ERA and a .311 BAA. The Twins have lost four of their last six games while the Phillies are heating up again and seeking their fourth straight win today. Also, the Phils are 16-9 this season when the total is a 9 or 9.5 runs. Play Philadelphia on the money line as a *6* Regular Play selection.
10* Washington / White Sox Over
The Nationals game with the White Sox stayed well under the total yesterday but Washington had previously gone over the total in four straight games. As for Chicago, the ChiSox had gone over the total in three straight games before yesterday’s under. In fact, the White Sox had recorded at least 11 hits in 5 of their last 10 games before being shutdown by the Nationals rookie phenom, Stephen Strasburg, yesterday. As for Washington, note that their team batting average at home this season ranks 2nd in the National League! In day games this season, the Nationals and White Sox each have slugging percentages that rank them in the top twelve out of the 30 MLB teams! The White Sox are 28-18 to the over against right-handed starters this season. The ChiSox are also 5-2 to the over when they are on the road in a price range of -100 to -125 this season. As for the Nationals, it’s true that they have mostly been an “under team” this season but Washington has allowed at least 7 runs in EACH of their last five games not started by Strasburg! Today, the Nationals go from trotting out a rookie phenom for the start to, instead, trotting out J.D. Martin.
No offense to Martin but he’s no Strasburg. In fact, he’s allowed 19 homers in his 18 career MLB starts. This includes a pair of homers in each of his last two starts this season. Martin has only made three starts this season and all have come on the road. However, don’t look for things to improve just because he’s now at home. In fact, in his young career, Martin has a 5.50 ERA and a .312 BAA in home games. On a very warm afternoon in D.C. the ball should be carrying well for both lineups even though this is a pitcher-friendly park. The Nats will be taking their cuts against Jake Peavy who continues to be bothered by shoulder soreness. While it’s true that Peavy has had a couple of better starts recently, they were preceded by the right-hander getting knocked around for at least four earned runs in 7 of his 10 prior starts. Peavy is just not 100% healthy and the Nationals lineup will bounce back after struggling with the offerings of Gavin Floyd yesterday. Note that Peavy has spent most of his career in the National League and that doesn’t help him in an interleague match-up. In fact, Peavy is 2-4 in his nine career starts against the Nationals and they’ve hit .280 against him. Play OVER the total in Washington as a *10* Top Play selection.
8* Florida / Tampa Bay Over
These pitchers just matched up at Tropicana Field in their most recent start. That is bad news for these hurlers today. This is because each starting pitcher is giving their opponent a quick second look and that means the lineup have an extra added edge…not that the Marlins necessarily need any additional edges! Florida pounded Jeff Niemann on Sunday for five earned runs on nine hits and three walks in six innings of work. Having allowed an average of two baserunners per inning in that start is bad news for the hard-throwing right-hander because he’s allowed six homers in his last five starts and the Marlins sticks come into this game hot. Florida has registered at least nine hits in seven of their last ten games. The Marlins have averaged 5.7 runs per game in their last ten games. Florida’s gone over the total in three straight games while the Rays have only stayed under the total four times in their last eleven games. Before struggling some at the plate in their last three games, Tampa Bay had scored at least nine runs in five of their last eight games. The problem for the Rays has been pitching as they’ve allowed an average of nearly 11 hits per game in their last eight games.
We do expect Niemann to struggle again against the Marlins and note that, in his career, the Rays right-hander has a road ERA that is more than full run higher than his home ERA. Additionally, Niemann likes pitching indoors (his home park is a dome, Tropicana Field), but his numbers are not as impressive outdoors. Niemann has been hit 46 points higher outdoors and has a 4.46 ERA outdoors in his career. The only good news for Tampa Bay fans today is that the Rays sticks should join the “hit parade” this evening as well. Florida sends Chris Volstad to the mound this evening. Prior to his solid outing versus the Rays, Volstad had given up 40 hits in his last 33 innings. He’s been far from dominant since early May. He’s also walked 21 in his last 39 innings. In his career, June has not been a good month for Volstad as he’s compiled a 5.86 ERA while being hit at a .305 clip! Also, while he’s 11-8 on the road in his career, he’s an ugly 8-15 in home starts.
The Rays will fare much better against Volstad in a quick second look situation and note that Tampa Bay is 9-5 to the over in the month of June plus 7-4 to the over this season when they are on the road and the total is 9 or 9.5 runs. As for the Marlins, they are 8-5 to the over this season when they are at home and the total is 9 or 9.5 runs. Also as a home dog of +125 to +150, the Marlins are 2-0, 100% perfect, to the over this season. When coming off of a win, Florida is 19-12 to the over this season. Last, but not least, the Marlins are 6-3 to the over in interleague games this season and 26-13 to the over the last three seasons in interleague action! Play OVER the total in Florida as an *8* Regular Play selection.
8* Yankees / Mets Over
In interleague match-ups, one of the big edges that starting pitchers sometimes have over the lineups they face is that the hitters have a lack of familiarity with them because they play in opposite leagues. However, when a pitching match-ups is occurring for the second time in a span of four weeks, that edge is simply not there. Phil Hughes of the Yankees and Mike Pelfrey of the Mets squared off at Shea Stadium four weeks ago. Despite the final score ending up just 5-3, there were 23 hits in the game and we look for more of the same this afternoon. Hughes allowed four earned runs on eight hits in less than six innings of work. The Yankees right-hander also comes into this start having allowed eight earned runs on 16 hits in his last 11.2 innings on the mound. In fact, in his six starts since mid-May, Hughes has been hit hard in four of the six starts.
As for the Mets Pelfrey, he only allowed one earned run on six hits in six innings of work when he matched up with Hughes on May 22nd. However, the Mets right-hander comes into this start off of a very rough outing at Baltimore where he walked three Orioles and struck out just one in his six innings of work where he allowed three earned runs on nine hits. With 12 baserunners allowed in just six innings, the damage to Pelfrey certainly could have been much worse. Today, we expect it will be. Pelfrey will be making his fourth career start against the Yankees so the Bronx Bombers do have experience against him. Also, despite his 2-1 record and a solid 3.94 ERA against the Yankees, Pelfrey has been hit at a .286 clip by the Bronx Bombers and has a rather unsightly 1.75 WHIP versus the Yanks. The Mets had gone over the total in four straight games before yesterday’s 4-0 win. The Yankees were shutout in yesterday’s game as southpaw Hisanori Takahashi got the best of them. However, the Yanks are 24-16 to the over against right-handed pitchers this season and Pelfrey is a right-hander. Also, the Yankees are 7-3 to the over in Saturday games this season. The Mets were 6-3 to the over in interleague games before yesterday’s under and we expect the high-scoring ways to resume on a warm afternoon in the Bronx Saturday. Play OVER the total in New York as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Seabass
50* NY UN - No idea what NY team
Didn't even realize they were playing each other, shows you how much I follow Baseball. 😀
ASA
3* Florida +130 over Tampa Bay
Chris Volstad has fairly average numbers for the season with a 4-6 record and a 4.25 ERA but he has pitched well since the start of May. In nine starts since May 1 Volstad has an ERA of 3.44 and while the wins have not fallen in place, he has allowed three or fewer runs in seven of those starts. In home games Volstad owns a 2.77 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. In this exact pitching match-up in Tampa Bay last week Volstad allowed just one run and four hits over six innings in a Marlins win.
Jeff Niemann has an impressive 6-1 record but the lone loss did come against the Marlins. Niemann?s overall numbers have been padded at home where he owns a 2.64 ERA and his record inflated with the hot start early in the season for the Rays. There are some growing signs of problems for Niemann as he has allowed ten runs and 20 hits over his last three starts and he has surrendered six home runs in his last five starts, including pitching poorly against the Marlins last week.
Both teams are just 4-6 in the last ten games but Florida owns a slightly higher batting average in that span while scoring 5.7 runs per game. Tampa Bay is just 2-6 in the last eight games as the Rays appear to be slipping back to the pack in the American League. Tampa Bay owns a great road record for the season but the statistics do not add up, with just a .253 team average away from home. Tampa Bay is also just 2-5 in the last seven road games.
Tampa Bays bullpen is in tough shape after Matt Garza recorded just four outs in his start on Friday. The Marlins jumped on the Rays early and got great pitching with four relievers locking down the win, none throwing more than 20 pitches. The home team is 8-4 in games that Lance Barksdale has called and the Marlins are catching great underdog value due to the great record for Niemann. Volstad has been sharper than Niemann in recent games including the head-to-head match-up and the Rays have not been playing up to their valuation in recent weeks
Billy Coleman
4* White Sox
3* NY Mets
3* Phillies Under
BIG AL
INTERLEAGUE ROADKILL WINNER
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Los Angeles Dodgers. This series between the Dodgers and Red Sox brings the return of Manny Ramirez to Fenway Park for the first time since the slugging outfielder was traded to Los Angeles at the July deadline during the 2008 season. Manny's performance since then has been a mixed bag, but I guess you'd have to say that the Dodgers have been better off with Manny these past two seasons than they would have been without him. When you're getting your first start off the disabled list after almost two months, one of the scenarios you wouldn't choose is coming into Fenway to face the Red Sox, but that's exactly what righthander Vicente Padilla is faced with today. Padilla's last Major League start was on April 22 and although he's been rehabilitating in the Minors, things have not gone very well at AAA prior to his call-up. Tim Wakefield's normally stellar form at Fenway Park has eluded him this season as he's just 0-4 with a 6.86 ERA in eight games (six starts) there so far but tonight presents a perfect opportunity for Wakefield to turn that around as the Red Sox are just about the hottest home team in baseball right now having gone 9-2 in their last 11 games at Fenway. MLB Roadkill on the Red Sox.
UNDERDOG SOCCER WINNER!
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on Denmark over Cameroon. Neither of these teams scored in their opening match, both falling in losses to Japan and Holland respectively. The big difference is that the two losses were in completely different contexts. Cameroon looked uninspired, and slumped to a 1-0 defeat to Japan, the Japanese being the underdogs in the match. In comparison, Denmark lost 2-0 to a strong Holland team and the Danes were very unlucky not to score the crucial first goal of the match, with Bendtner heading over from close range on 27 minutes. So far in this World Cup only one team that has scored the first goal has gone on to lose the match (Nigeria vs. Greece). Denmark goalkeeper Sorensen was in outstanding form as usual and Holland's two goals came with a huge slice of luck. The first was an unfortunate headed own goal by Poulsen, the second a rebound that came straight off the post into the path of the onrushing Dirk Kuyt. After losing their first game, I can still see Denmark beating Cameroon and then Japan to qualify in second place after Holland in Group E. Our pick is for Denmark to beat Cameroon, sending the African team home with an early exit.
SPORTS UNLIMITED
1* Nationals