Jim Feist
25* Big Bad Baseball Bookie Buster - Colorado Rockies
The last place Diamondbacks' disastrous first two months of the season have prompted the club's ownership to consider all avenues of change, including a drastic retooling of the major league roster. Since jumping to a 20-8 start in the first month of the 2008 season, they are 152-198 (.434), losing 92 games last season. The pitching staff is the worst in the NL and things are so bad they have to start newcomer Dontrelle Willis this game. Willis has completely lost it, with a 4.98 ERA walking 29 in 43 innings, a horrible ratio. He has allowed a whopping 77 base runners in 43 innings! The Tigers were 2-5 in his last 7 starts. Colorado has had a nice run the last two weeks, including 3 wins as a dog in addition to a 5-game win streak. Starter Jhoulys Chacin has been strong all year, with a 3.62 ERA, allowing just 29 hits in 37 innings and 36 Ks. He has faced these D-Backs onec this season with a 2.57 ERA against them (a win). Play the Rockies!
Inner Circle - Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati has been a powerhouse on offense all season, tops in the NL in runs scored, third in homers and third in batting average behind Scott Rolen, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. 22-year old Starter Mike Leake steps in with a 4-0 mark and a 2.45 ERA, with few walks. Through ten starts in his young career, Leake's ERA has dropped to 2.45 and he does well to keep the ball in the park with a good groundball ratio. That will help in a big park like Washington and the grass infield. The same can't be said of Washington starter Luis Atilano. He may be 5-1 on the season, but his ERA of 4.70 is terrible, especially when you factor in half his games in this big park. He has more walks (21) than strikeouts (16) and in 44 innings, that's a lot of free passes. Play the Reds
Roz Juarbe
25* Situational High Heat Dominator - New York Yankees
Promotion: The Yankees have been on a tear, but they are still in second place, so there is plenty of urgency. This offense wears down pitchers, first in batting average, first in hits and first in runs batted in. Veteran Andy Pettitte is quietly having a great year at 7-1. But he's not relying on the great offense to get him wins, as he has a 2.48 ERA. His last three starts: 2 walks, 12 Ks in 20 innings. He is doing everything right. Toronto is a terrific offensive park and Toronto lefty Ricky Romero has struggled in his career against the Bronx Bombers, with a 5.94 ERA against them, with 17 hits and 12 walks in 16 innings. That's a lot of base runners! Meanwhile, Pettitte is 20-12 all time against the Blue Jays. Play the NY Yankees.
MR EAST
MLB SATURDAY WHITEWASH
3 UNITS MARLINS / METS UNDER 9.5
King Creole
3* NY Yankees -120
It's not often that we get Andy Pettitte at such a low and reasonable price. Normally, we have to lay -200 or higher to get behind the Yankee southpaw. In great current form, Petitte also plays into a huge statistical situation in the 'lefty vs lefty' pitching matchup.
The YANKS come in with a .293 team batting average vs left-handers this season.... and in their last 10 games, the numbers are even better at .304. Meanwhile, the host Blue Jays come in with a team batting average of .200 vs left-handers this season... and even WORSE at home (only .190). New York does very well against fellow AL East division opponents, going 48-18 in the last year and a half. The Yanks also are extremely profitable in GAME TWO of a series, going 36-15 in the last 12 months. On the flip side, Toronto is 2-9 in their last 11 home DOG roles... and 1-4 in Game Two of a series. And we saved the best for LAST: The Blue Jays are a PERFECT 0-5 at home this season versus left-handed starters....
Ricky Romero gets the call for the home team. He struggles against division opponents (2-10 L12 vs AL East)... and is a very unprofitable Underdog (3-10 last 13 DOG roles). He's also gone 1-4 on Saturdays and 1-4 pitching on 5 days rest. He faced the Pin-Stripers three times last season and had an ERA of 6.18. He lost BOTH of the starts in August and September.
Andy Pettitte comes into Saturday's start with a 9-1 team record for the season with an ERA of 2.48. His numbers in DAYTIME starts include a 6-0 record and SHARP 1.12 ERA. He's actually done better on the ROAD than in home starts, going 3-0 as a visitor with an ERA of only 1.64. His most recent start was 7 innings in which he allowed only 4 hits and 1 earned run..... and a sharp K/BB ratio of 5-0. Pettitte's previous history 'In THIS Park' also exhibit prime PLAY ON form. He's gone 5-1 in this ballpark in the last 3 seasons (4-0 last 2!)... with an ERA of only 2.91. In his career, he's been a reliable road favorite... going 40-18 in the last 4 seasons. Also 9-1 when pitching on 4 days of rest.... 4-1 on Saturdays... and 5-1 vs winning (>.500) teams.
Rocketman
4* Detroit -145
3* Marlins +115
3* Milwaukee +140
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Florida at N.Y. Mets
Time: 4:10 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) ROBERTSON, N vs. (L) NIESE, J
Play: Florida (ML +115)
Not easy going against the Mets at home, but there are too many good variables involved here to pass up the Marlins as even a small underdog. Florida has a sterling record against lefties this season, and with Jon Niese working his was back from an injury, I believe he will be vulnerable here. The only downer is that I'm relying on Nate Robertson, who can be pretty mediocre at times. But I'd actually rather have Robertson than Niese here, and considering the Mets record at home, this looks like one where the oddsmakers are indicating the road team at the low price. I'll back the Marlins to garner the victory.
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Matchup: Minnesota at Oakland
Time: 9:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) LIRIANO, F vs. (R) CAHILL, T
Play: Oakland (ML +118)
The Twins managed to break their losing streak with the extra inning Friday night win, but this team is not real sharp right now. The A's have been a very good home team, and they're not bad against lefties so far this season. That bodes reasonably well for tonight's game as the A's challenge Francisco Liriano. The southpaw is still doing okay, but he is not dominating like he was in April. Trevor Cahill doesn't blow away the opposition, but he's clearly more savvy on the mound than he was as a rookie, and Cahill is proving very tough at home of late. I see value with Oakland getting a price at home tonight, so I'll take the dog odds and back the A's.
Chris Jordan
600* Boston Red Sox -1.5
Anthony Redd
100 Dime Lakers/Celtics Over
15 Dime Tampa Bay -1.5
Paul Leiner
100* Reds -130
50* Yankees -135
25* Pirates -110
Matt Fargo
Baltimore
Oakland
Al DeMarco
15 Dime Boston Red Sox -1.5
MTi Sports
Padres at Phillies
Pick: Padres +136
The Phillies are 3-12 their last 15 games and the three wins were by margins of 3-2, 1-0 and 3-2 respectively. They have not scored more than 3 runs in each of their last twelve games. In yesterday’s 3-2 win, they were out-hit 10-6 by the Padres, but benefited from five free passes. With Moyer going, the Phillies are going to need a lot more than three runs to win, so we’ll grab the price.
Many will point out that Moyer is off an excellent start, going six innings and allowing one run on four hits. This is true. However, it is also true that the Phillies are 0-7 with Moyer at home when he is off a road start in which he went at least six innings and allowed fewer than six hits. Not surprisingly, the Phillies were favored in six of the seven starts.
The Padres bounce back nicely when they are off a loss in which they allowed a lot of walks. San Diego is a perfect 9-0 off a loss as a dog in which they gave up at least five walks. This season, they are 3-0 under these conditions, winning 17-2 as a 125 home dog to the Braves, winning 4-1 as a 120 road dog in Florida and shutting out the Brewers 8-0 in a pick-em game. That’s outscoring their opponent by a 29-3. Wow.
Garland is off two straight quality starts, in which he went seven innings in each. The Padres won the two starts 1-0 and 3-2 respectively. The Padres are terrific in the role of road dog when their starter is pitching well. In fact, San Diego is 7-1 when they won their starter’s last two starts and they are a road dog. Their only loss in this situation came yesterday, by a 3-2 margin vs Halladay. Jamie Moyer is no Roy Halladay. Finally, Philadelphia is a money-burning 0-5 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit. All five games are from THIS season and Philly lost by an average of 3.8 runs at an average line of minus 178. Grab the price.
MTi’s FORECAST: San Diego 6 PHILADELPHIA 3
Big Al McMordie 3 Play Package
Our 3 selections include the Yankees, Rays and Reds.
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. Andy Pettitte continued his brilliance in the month of May, as he only had one bad start that resulted in a loss (May 20th at home against the Rays) and he won all four of his other outings for the month to bring his record on the season to an incredible 7-1. Could Pettitte actually be on his way to his best season ever, at age 38? It certainly looks like that could be the case, although there is still 2/3 of the season to go. This is a critical series for both teams as Boston is playing the Orioles this weekend and that's almost an automatic 3-0 for the Red Sox. Toronto will start its own lefthander Ricky Romero and although Romero's overall numbers are very good (5-2; 3.14 ERA), he's been very inconsistent and will often sandwich an ugly start in between two good ones and vice-versa. He has also had his problems with the Yankees in his career, winning just one of three starts with an ERA of 5.94 and he's yet to face them this season, so there is an awful lot of pressure on this 25-year-old as Toronto tries to keep pace with the big guns in the AL East. Pressure seems to roll off of Pettitte pretty easily, however, and this will probably just be another day at the office for the veteran southpaw. Take the Yanks.
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Texas Rangers. Historically, Tampa Bay starter James Shields has pitched much better at home in Tropicana Field than he has on the road. In 2008, for example, the righthander had a 9-2 record at the Trop with a 2.59 ERA while he went 5-6 and 4.82 away from home. Last season the bias was less of a factor, but was still there as Shields went 6-6 and 3.75 at home vs. 5-6 and 4.62 on the road -- still almost a full run higher ERA. This season, Shields has all but erased the bias, and in fact he is now a more effective starter away from central Florida than he is in front of the home faithful. Through his first 11 starts, Shields is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA at home, but 4-1 with a 3.34 ERA on the road. So you might see the Rays trying to schedule more road games for Shields for a change. Tonight is a great opportunity to get win #5 as righthander Tommy Hunter will get his first start of the season for the Rangers. Hunter was 9-6 with a 4.10 ERA in 15 starts for Texas last year and was supposed to be in its rotation to start the season but he landed on the DL in Spring Training with a ribcage injury. He was only 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in six starts at Triple A Oklahoma City so facing a tough team like TB in his first start back in the Majors may be a bit too much. Take the Rays.
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Washington Nationals. There's a San Diego-area kid pitcher in his early twenties who is about to make his next start in Washington, DC. No, it's not Stephen Strasburg. Wanna make another guess? It's perhaps the finest rookie Major Leaguer out there right now and most people wouldn't recognize him if they ran into him in the street. His name is Mike Leake and he is a 22-year-old righthander and if Strasburg is taking the fast track to the Majors, then Leake was on the Space Shuttle. Leake is the first rookie starter in 21 years to jump straight from College ball to the Majors without playing a single game at any Minor League level. He is also the first rookie pitcher in Reds history to be undefeated (4-0) after his first 10 starts. Strasburg (who was Leake's teammate when they were 11 years old) can only hope to be this good when he makes his long-awaited debut with the Nats next Tuesday. Tonight's Nationals' starter won't be Strasburg, but instead another rookie named Luis Atilano. The righthander has been pretty good in his own right, going 5-1 so far in his first six starts with the Nats. But he's done almost all of his damage on the road, and his home record of 1-1 with an ugly 7.47 ERA leaves a lot to be desired. Take the Reds behind Leake. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
Tony George
Cincinnati -130
Unreal value here with a smokin hot pitcher in Mike Leake for Cincy. His ERA over his past 3 games is 0.93 and he rarely gives up more than a hit an inning. He averages less than a hit a inning on the year, and is 4-0. The Nats have a decent pitcher on the hill as well but his ERA is over 6 in his last 3, and I doubt he gets the run support needed to win this one, even at home. Also we are catching the Reds off a loss last night to the Nats as well, which I always like when the losing team has a hot pitcher coming off a previous nights loss. Cincy hitting over .300 at the plate against right handers the last 10 games, they have a better starter, better offense in this one, and while their bullpen has not been stellar as of late and the Nats has, I like OFFENSE in this one for the Reds to win it, as they get a lead early. Play 2 Units on the Reds
JR O'Donnell
3* Boston Red Sox -1.5
Red Sox tonight -1.5 runs get the call tonight as the John Lester lead Red Sox pay back the Orioles from last series pasting. Lester is a monster 11-0 in his career against Baltimore and 7-0 in his last 10 times he has toed the rubber. He has also wheeled a 2.22 ERA and this pay back ball game is a huge JR O play. The O's send out Guthrie (3-5, 3.84 ERA) who has not hasn't beaten the Red Sox since May 13, 2008. Let's roll out a run line winner here as the JR O EXPRESS will put up a huge needed W with the Boys from Fenway.