ASA
4* San Diego +125 over Philadelphia
With Ubaldo Jimenez overshadowing every other pitching in the National League through two months, the strong start from Jon Garland has been overlooked. Garland is with his fifth team in four years but he is off to his best start since the 2005 World Series season. Through eleven starts Garland is 6-2 with a 2.15 ERA and San Diego is 8-1 in his last nine outings. In six of his last nine starts he has allowed one or fewer runs and he has not taken a loss since his second start of the season on April 11. Garland has allowed just two home runs in his last nine starts and he has excelled in night games with a 4-0 record and a 1.75 ERA.
Matching up with the Philadelphia offense is an unenviable task but the recent numbers for the Phillies are atrocious. Philadelphia is 4-11 in the last 15 games, scoring just 26 runs in the process for a 1.7 runs per game average. While the recent road trip took a serious toll the Phillies were not playing much better on the home stand before that and Citizens Bank Park has only provided a modest home field edge. Over the last ten games Philadelphia owns a .210 team batting average and against a stingy pitcher like Garland that fortune will be difficult to reverse, particularly with Jimmy Rollins still on the FL and Placido Polanco also possibly sitting out.
Veteran Jamie Moyer continues to eat innings for the Phillies but he has lost each of his last three starts. Moyer has average numbers for the season as he has been tagged for four or more runs in six of his eleven starts this season. Moyer owns slightly better numbers at home but he has received a total of one run of support in his last three starts. The Philadelphia bullpen has been solid this season but San Diego has even better numbers, including a 2.00 ERA over the last ten games.
The Padres continue to be one of the most profitable teams in baseball and a winning team on the road. Eight of the last eleven games had been won by San Diego entering this series. San Diego has a reputation as a low-scoring team that wins with pitching but the Padres averaged nearly 5.4 runs scored in that eleven-game span and on average the Padres have out-scored opponents by a half run on the road this season. San Diego has won ten of the last 13 road games and seven of the last nine Saturday games and Garland will be an underrated starter in this match-up.
EXECUTIVE
600% PIRATES
Jeff Benton
20 Dime: Red Sox -1½
10 Dime: Yankees-Blue Jays UNDER
Red Sox -1½
The Orioles are a freaking mess, as I’m sure you’re aware. They’re a major-league worst 15-40 on the season, and with last night’s 11-0 loss to Boston, they’ve now dropped nine in a row (all by more than one run) and 16 of 19. The futility cost manager Dave Trembley his job yesterday, but if you’re ranking the top 10 things that are wrong with Baltimore right now, the manager ranks 11th – if that!
While the Orioles have been floundering, Boston has gotten hot, winning 13 of its last 17 games, including six straight on the road. And 10 of the team’s last 11 wins – including all six during its winning streak – have come by multiple runs.
Jon Lester gets the ball for Boston today, and the lefty is now 6-2 with a 2.97 ERA, including 6-0 with a 1.43 ERA in his last eight starts. The Sox are 7-1 in those eight games, with the last six in a row covering the run line. In fact, in his last three outings, Lester has allowed a grand total of three runs (two earned) in 22 innings (0.82 ERA), as Boston beat the Twins (6-2), Rays (2-0) and Royals (8-1). And if you go back to early last year, 24 of Boston’s last 26 wins behind Lester have been by more than one run.
If that’s not enough to absolutely LOVE Lester tonight, this is: He’s 10-0 with a 2.22 ERA in 13 career starts against the Orioles (4-0, 2.13 in six games in Baltimore), and the Red Sox have won 12 of those 13 games, including 10 multi-run victories. And In Lester’s last four starts at Camden Yards, Boston has prevailed by scores of 6-3, 6-3, 4-0 and 11-5.
On the flip side, check out the career numbers of Baltimore right-hander Jeremy Guthrie against the Red Sox: 1-5 with a 4.72 ERA in 13 games (12 starts). Going back exactly two years, Guthrie has faced Boston seven times … and the Orioles lost all seven games, including five by more than one run. And they’re 0-4 the last four times Guthrie has matched up against Lester.
Throw in the fact that the Red Sox are on streaks against Baltimore of 63-21 overall and 68-30 at Camden Yards, and this is as big a no-brainer as it gets.
Yankees-Blue Jays UNDER
Two outstanding left-handers on the mound here, with the Yankees’ Andy Pettitte (7-1, 2.48 ERA) matching up against Toronto’s Ricky Romero (5-2, 3.14 ERA).
Start with Pettitte, who is arguably enjoying the best season of his career. He’s held eight of 10 opponents to two earned runs or fewer; he’s walked just 18 batters in 65 1/3 innings; and he’s been tremendous both on the road (2-0, 1.64 ERA in three games, all staying under the total) and in day games (6-0, 1.12 ERA).
Meanwhile, Romero has been nearly unhittable at home, going 4-1 with a 1.58 ERA in five games. Four of those five stayed under the total (average combined runs of 6.4). And like Pettitte, Romero has been brilliant in daytime action, going 2-1 with a 1.60 ERA in five games (and the under is 4-1 in those contests).
Now, obviously both these offenses are loaded, but they’re very reliant on the home run ball (in fact, Toronto leads the majors in homers with 91). Well, Pettitte and Romero have surrendered a combined eight long balls in 142 2/3 innings. Pettitte hasn’t given up a homer in 22 innings on the road, while Romero has been taken deep just once in 40 innings at the Rogers Center.
What’s more, the Blue Jays have been horrific against left-handed pitching all season (.200 average overall, .190 average at home). And while New York hits .293 against lefties overall, that average dips to .269 away from Yankee Stadium (and it managed just one run last night against Blue Jays southpaw Brett Cecil).
Finally, the under is 37-15-2 in Pettitte’s last 54 road starts and 19-7 in his last 26 as a road favorite, while Toronto is on “under” runs of 6-2 against the A.L. East, 6-2-1 against left-handed starters, 7-3-1 on Saturday, 4-1 when Romero works on Saturday and, again, 4-1 in Romero’s five home outings this season.
JAY MCNEIL
80 DIME Boston Red -1.5
CRAIG DAVIS
50 DIME Boston Red Sox
KELSO
50 Units Red Sox -1.5 -120
15 Units Oakland +115
10 Units Astros -105
3 Units Braves/Dodgers UNDER 7.5
Street Rosenthal
*200 New York Yankees -124
*200 Texas Rangers +122
*200 Cincinnati Reds -128
*200 Pittsburgh Pirates -120
*200 Detroit Tigers -147
Teddy Covers
Giants/Pirates Over
Rockies
Barnstorms -2
John Ryan Sports
Reds @ Nationals
Pick: Over 9
10* graded play OVER Reds/Nats set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that 9 or more runs will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 38-12 for 76% since 1997. Play over all teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 80% and with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 15 games. Reds are hitting well posting a 277 BA, 246 OBP and scoring 5.1 RPG on the season. Versus RH starters they are hitting 275 with a 344 OBP and scoring 5 RPG. Over the past 7 games they are hitting 322 with 375 OBP and scoring 6.1 RPG. As strong as the offense has been this season, the bullpen is just as weak. Over the past 7 games they have posted a 5.01 ERA and a 1.842 WHIP. In 55 games this season they have posted a very weak 1.561 WHIP. Nats are batting 289 with a 358 OBP in 25 home games this season. Offenses will dominate in this game. Take the OVER.
Lenny Del Genio
AL East Total of the Year
Boston/Baltimore Under
The Red Sox shutout the poor O’s 11-0 last night. Wouldn’t be surprised if they get shutout again tonight. The Sox send out Lester and he’s been the best Sox pitcher of late. In this last three starts the Red Sox lefty has a microscopic 0.82 ERA with a .909 WHIP. The Sox lefty owns these O’s with a 12-1 team start record and a remarkable 2.22 ERA. He faced these Orioles once this season and he allowed no runs in 5 2/3 innings of work as the Red Sox went on to win 4-3. For Baltimore they give the ball to Guthrie who has pitched pretty well this season. He’s sporting a 3.84 ERA and 8 of his 11 starts have gone under the number. Against these Red Sox at home, in six starts he’s held Boston to 3 or less runs in five of those outings. Baltimore is scoring less than two runs per game in their last seven games and we don’t anticipate them scoring much today against Lester and a rested Boston pen. With the lack of run production from the O’s and with Guthrie being able to hold Boston in check, we look for a low scoring game tonight in Baltimore.
JOHN RYAN
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Pick: Texas Rangers Play Title:
25* graded play on Texas as the host Tampa Bay set to start at 4:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Texas is a solid 14-3 (+13.9 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons; 14-6 (+9.3 Units) against the money line versus excellent speed teams averaging 1 or more SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Texas skipper Washington is a solid 18-4 (+16.8 Units) against the money line versus AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season. TB offense has not been doing well over the past month. Their season run differential has been stagnant at a plus 93 runs reflecting “average” play. Texas is batting 291 and scoring 5.5 RPG in 27 home games this season. They are a singles hitting team that can produce big innings. This type of hitting is also reflected in the fact that they have grounded into just 42 DP on season spanning 53 games. Just 14 of them in 27 home games. Rays starter Schields is coming off a poor start allowing 7 ER on 11 its with 2 home runs spanning 5.3 IP versus the CWS. in summary, Tampa Bay has lost six of its last seven at Texas and has posted a 10.10 ERA during the last six contests there. Texas, meanwhile, has won 12 of its last 15 at home, averaging 6.1 RPG. Guerrero is back in the lineup and is Guerrero is hitting .415 with five homers and 12 RBIs in his last 14 games versus Tampa Bay. Rangers starter Hunter has MLB experience and went 9-6 with a 4.10 ERA for the Rangers last season. Hunter has faced the Rays twice and has posted a 3.48 ERA. The key here is that the Rangers bullpen and offense are playing strong baseball and this will enable Hunter to simply go out and “pitch to contact”. This is a baseball term for a starter to simply hit his spots; not walk anyone; and allow the opponent to put the ball in play. This is one of the best ways to pitch when you have a strong bullpen and an even stronger offense behind you.
CRAIG TRAPP
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5
Man this is too easy again. Usually we don't go after same play two days in a row but everything points to another blowout. Love playing against teams in turmoil and BALT has fired their manager and are looking for answers. Today will be same as yesterday just different dominating pitcher for BOS. Today best BOS pitcher Lester looks to continue super dominating performance 6-0 in last 8 starts with a 1.88 ERA. Even better he is 11-0 against BAL including winning 7 of last 9 starts against them. Guthrie starts for BALT and is trying to get out of his bad streak against BOS as he has not won in his last 9 starts going 0-7 with a 6 plus ERA. BOS is super hot at the plate verse a really struggling BALT lineup. No way this one is even close.
GOLDEN CONTENDER
Reds vs. Nationals
Pick: Over 8.5
This game has a solid system that applies tonight. What we want to do is play the over for road favorites like the Reds who are off a road favored loss and scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits and left 10 or more men on base, vs an opponent off a home dog win that scored 4 or less. Somewhat complicated I admit. However very effective cashing 90% of the time and averaging over 11 runs per game. The Reds have rookie righty Leake pitching tonight and he has been real good of late with a 0.93 era over his past 3 starts. However I feel he may regress some here as he may not be able to keep up this type of pace. Washington counters with L.Atilano tonight. Atilano has struggled badly over his past few starts and has a terrible 7.43 home era. The Reds have gone over the total 4 of their last 5 as a road favorite in this range and are scoring 7 runs per game over the past week. Washington has been hot at the plate as well averaging 5 runs per game over the past week. Look for this one to play over the total here tonight. BONUS BELMONT BELOW On Saturday in the Belmont Stakes our selection is #11 First Dude. What we did in this race was use a few Belmont Stakes angles to give us a better indicator of what to expect in this mile and a half race. First Dude trained by D.Romans and ridden By R. Dominguez is coming off a solid 2nd place Preakness finish. H earned his career best Beyer speed figure in that race of 101. He has a front running style in a race tha lacks speed. This could be very positive. If he can get some slow fractions he should have plenty left in the stretch. In the Bemont Stakes most of the time the previous winners ran one of the top Beyer numbers and ran first second or third in the Preakness or Peter Pan. While there are no starters from the Peter Pan, the best Preakness horse in here is First Dude. Play him to win. For Exotics Play first Dude in exacta and Triple boxes with Ice box and Fly Down.
DEREK MANCINI
20 DIME Chicago White Sox
STEPHEN NOVER
5 DIME Padres/Phillies Over