BIG AL
3* Blue Jays -143
3* White Sox -138
Ben Burns
10* White Sox
9* Blue Jays Under
ATS Lock Club
5 Units Twins +125
4 Units Orioles -135
4 Units Red Sox/Tigers Under 9
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Boston -165
1 Unit Cincy +145
1 Unit LA Dodgers -120
NSA
20* White Sox -140
20* Cards -145
20* Nats +145 (GM2)
10* Philly +100
10* Tex +140
10* Twins +135
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Minnesota at N.Y. Yankees
Time: 1:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) LIRIANO, F vs. (L) PETTITTE, A
Play: N.Y. Yankees (ML -128)
With all due respect to Francisco Liriano, this line is absurdly low. Liriano has been dynamite for the Twins, but as is so often the case, the bettors are looking only at the starting pitchers, and forgetting that this is a team game. Look at these numbers. The Yankees have now beaten the Twins in 51 of their last 67 meetings, including a 28-5 record when they're at home. Overall at Yankee Stadium, the champs are on a monster 49-11 run. The Twins could be pitching Sandy Koufax in his prime today and the number would still be too low. I always try and make the point that winning at baseball is all about playing value, and that's clearly the case here. I'll back Andy Pettitte and the Yankees at what I consider bargain basement odds.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Matchup: Cleveland at Baltimore
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) TALBOT, M vs. (L) MATUSZ, B
Play: Baltimore (ML -130)
The Orioles could not have been worse to start the season, but they're actually playing good baseball right now. Still, I'm only going to consider laying a price with them in very few situations. This happens to be one of them. Two callups from the minors have come up huge for the O's and it's transformed the team. First, Alfredo Simon gave them someone the team could have a little confidence in for the ninth inning, and that's absolutely huge for the entire staff, as it allows the pitchers to take the mound not thinking they need to be perfect. More recently, the Orioles sent out struggling Nolan Reimold and recalled veteran OF Corey Patterson. He's obviously thrilled to be back in the bigs and is red hot leading off for the O's. Beyond that, this is a good matchup for the hosts. Brian Matusz has pitched better than his record indicates and he's been good at home. Mitch Talbot has regressed to where I thought he'd be after a very surprising April run, and I have doubt about how long he'll be starting, even for the lowly Indians. Cleveland is awful on the road, sporting a miserable 7-27 record going back to last season. The Orioles are the team with the positive momentum, and I like Matusz and the O's to come away with the win win tonight.
igz1 sports
4* Pittsburgh +1½
Jeff Benton
50 Units Red Sox -1½
Give Dontrelle Willis credit – after struggling for several years with his control, the veteran lefty appears to have finally become a serviceable major league pitcher once again. He’s 1-1 with a 3.99 ERA in five starts with the Tigers, and while he has walked 15 batters in 29 1/3 innings, he hasn’t issued more than three free passes in any start.
All that said, of the two left-handed pitchers on the mound in this game, 100 scouts out of 100 would take Jon Lester in a split-second over the D-Train. And Lester’s last four performances show why: After getaing off to yet another slow starts – he gave up 15 runs in 16 innings while in his first three games (all Boston losses) – Lester has turned things around in a big way in his last four outings, allowing a grand total of three runs, 14 hits and 10 walks while whiffing 30 in 27 2/3 innings (0.96 ERA).
The Red Sox prevailed in all four games by a combined tally of 20-7, including Sunday’s 9-3 victory over the Yankees (a huge win that kept Boston from being swept at home by its hated rivals). By winning Lester’s last four starts, the Sox are now 61-29 in his last 90 starts overall. And of their last 23 wins behind Lester, 21 have been by multiple runs, including 13 of the last 14.
Back to Willis real quick: This truly is a big litmus test to see how far he’s come. Because not only will he be facing a quality and patient Boston lineup (on that’s batting .280 against left-handed pitching this season inclueding .301 in the last 10 games), but he’s also coming off a long break. Willis was scratched from Monday’s start against the Yankees (illness), so he hasn’t been on the mound for 10 days. Will his wildness return after such a lengthy layoff? I wouldn’t be surprised.
Also, while the Red Sox have enjoyed facing lefty pitching this year, Detroit has not. Despite beating CC Sabathia 6-0 on Thursday, the Tigers are still batting just .233 at home against left-handers (and .230 over the past 10 games).
Finally, look at what the Red Sox have done to Detroit recently: With Friday’s 7-2 blowout victory, Boston has now won 39 of the last 55 meetings, including 12 of the last 15 overall and five straight in D-Town. During their recent 12-3 run against the Tigers since the beginning of the 2008 season, 11 of the victories (including all seven in Detroit) have been by multiple runs.
Throw in the fact we’re assured of the Red Sox (as the road team) getting all nine turns at bat, and I’ll confidently ride Lester and Boston to another comfootable Motown win here.
Executive
600% Fla
Bob Balfe
Blue Jays/Rangers Over 9
Feldman has been off to a bad start this year with a 1-3 record and 5.34 ERA. In addition, the Rangers are very hot right now (6-2 last 8 games) and are finding some momentum offensively and doing a good job manufacturing runs. Look for both teams to put up some numbers today. Take the Over.
Street Rosenthal
*300 Boston Red Sox -165
I am going with the Red Sox to take another game from the Tigers tonight. Here are a few trends that say they will. First, I have Red Sox as 16-2 SU since August 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series. Also, the Red Sox are 21-4 SU since September 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series. Next, we have Tigers as a poor 5-25 SU since May 2004 as a dog after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series. I also have a nice starter trend against the Tigers Dontrelle Willis that states he is 1-11 SU in game 2 or more of a series as a Dog and his opponent scored more than 6 runs in their previous game. Take the Red Sox for the win.
*200 Toronto Blue Jays -151
*200 LA Angels -140
*200 Chicago White Sox -140
The Hitman Guaranteed Selections
XXXX-LARGE PRIVATE PLAY BASEBALL WINNER
Florida w/Robertson -115
Seabass
30* Pitt
50* Tor
50* Sd
50* Stl
50* SF/Hou Under
100* CWS (Steam)
Derek Mancini
10 Dime - Orioles
5 Dime - Padres
TEDDY COVERS
Phi/Mil Over 9.5
WS/KC Under 8.5
Cleveland Gladiators
Chicago Rush