Matt Fargo
Houston vs San Francisco
Play: Houston
With all due respect to Tim Lincecum, this price is way out of control. The Giants have owned this series so far this season with four straight wins out of the gate and they own a record that is 6.5 games better overall however I believe that we are getting a ton of value here. Roy Oswalt had some struggles last season as he posted career highs in both ERA and WHIP but he has shown signs of the Oswalt we are used to this season. Through seven starts he is only 2-4 but he has a 2.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with all seven of his starts being quality performances. Granted he has only pitched once on the road all season but due to some crazy scheduling but he has been better on the road than at home the last two-plus seasons anyhow. Lincecum has been just as solid as all seven of his starts have been quality efforts as well but surprisingly this is the highest he has been favored by all season. He deserves the big number when called for but when facing another of baseball’s elite starters, he should not be priced this high. The Astros also fall into a solid situation that is very contrarian against Lincecum. Play against teams with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after five or more starts while posting a WHIP of 1.00 or less over that span. This situation is 52-30 (63.4 percent) over the last five seasons with the average moneyline being +122 in those games making the spot even better than the percentages say. 9* Houston Astros
Scott Rickenbach
8* Detroit / Boston Over
We lost (or pushed) a tough one with this play yesterday and we won’t hesitate to come right back with it here. We used the over in Detroit yesterday and there were 6 runs scored in the first inning and yet the game ended up with just a total of 9 runs. Most clients likely got the 9 for a push but some could have lost with a 9.5 but the fact the game never got to 10 runs is ludicrous anyway. Yes, the Tigers pen has been solid this season but the Red Sox pen has struggled and ranks in the lower 25% of the league for bullpen ERA. The key today will be starting pitchers struggling and mild weather conditions at Comerica Park. High temps are expected to be in the mid 60’s with light winds today in Detroit and the evening should be a cool but pleasant one under clear Michigan skies. The Tigers are starting Dontrelle Willis tonight and he shows a respectable 3.99 ERA so far this season. However, he’s already missed a couple of starts this season due to illness and that includes his most recent start. That is not going to help him maintain any sort of rhythm and Willis has walked 8 in his last 12.1 innings on the mound. It looks like the trouble with wildness is a problem that is starting to creep up on the Tigers southpaw once again. Also, he’s been hit 62 points higher by righties than lefties this season and 73 points higher by right-handed sticks in his career. The Red Sox will have very few lefties in the lineup tonight and we expect the Boston lineup to pound Willis as he comes off of a long layoff. Additionally, the Tigers southpaw has been hit 30 points higher in night games compared to day games throughout his career. He’s facing a Red Sox team that has averaged 6.5 runs per game in his last 13 games and Willis is likely to get rocked here.
The Red Sox Jon Lester is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Yes, he’s been impressive recently but the southpaw has made 5 of his 7 starts this season at Fenway Park. Yes, he did have one good road outing this season but he struggled in the other start he made away from home and road games have given him more challenges than home games throughout his career. Lester is a solid 20-12 in career road games but his ERA (4.12) is nearly a full run higher than what he’s produced in starts at Fenway Park. Also, Lester did struggle in his only career start against the Tigers and note that his Red Sox are 5-1 to the over in Saturday games this season. Lester had a 5.86 ERA in the month of May last season and this is his first road start in May of this season. We’re not convinced that all his road woes are behind him and, with this being his first ever outing at Comerica Park, don’t be surprised if Lester struggles some on a new mound. While Lester’s teammates have averaged 10 hits per game in their last 13 games, the Tigers pounded the last southpaw starter they faced. That was C.C. Sabathia on Thursday and the Tigers got to him for 6 earned runs on 9 hits (including two homers) in 6 innings of work. Also, Detroit’s .272 team batting average is tied for 3rd place among all 14 AL teams. After yesterday’s over stalled after a hot, early start for the bats…look for the bats to enjoy a sustained strong outing here as the two southpaw starters each give up their fair share in this one. Play OVER the total in Detroit as an *8* Regular Play selection.
The Duke's Sports
NY Mets Under (9') for 3 Units
Both of these teams are low in run production as of late; as a matter of fact, excluding yesterday's breakout run producing effort (7 runs), the Marlins failed to produce more than 4 runs over their previous 9 games. We'll look for John Maine, who's coming off a few solid outings after a sluggish April, to turn in some solid innings tonight. Maine sports a respectable 3.45 ERA over 11 starts vs the Marlins, and he is 2-7 O/U vs the National League East. On the other hand, the Mets are struggling to produce runs over their 3 game slide and batting just .219 on the road vs lefty starters. Nate Robertson sports a 2.13 ERA in 2 starts vs the Mets. Robertson is 1-5 O/U in his last 6 when the total is set at 9 to 10'. Furthermore, both bullpens have been solid. With the Marlins at 18-63 O/U with the 'total' set at 9 to 10', we will go "under" here.
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
INSIDE LATE STEAM BASEBALL WINNER
Oakland w/Duchsherer +130
Sports Unlimited
1* NY Mets
Steven Budin
The Philadelphia Crew has a 25 Dime Run Line release on San Francisco and Lincecum - 1 1/2 Runs over Houston and Oswalt.
MTi Sports
4* Oakland Athletics