Sam Clayton
30 Dime - Angels
Now that was more like it. Yesterday, I backed the Angels knowing full well that they were going to even the series. And what do you know, Jon Lackey was downright filthy throwing seven innings of one-run baseball. Sure, L.A. scored six runs again (that offense is hot) but the real reason for the winner was that the true Orioles offense showed up, not the one that miraculously plated 16 runs two days ago. The Halos smell the blood in the water and today they are going in for the proverbial kill and series win.
The old adage says that "every dog has its day," well Friday was the Orioles day because there was nobody more shocked than me when the Birds lit up the scoreboard and beat the Angels by 10 runs. Baltimore's offense still doesn't scare me because aside from their offense explosion Friday, the O's have scored 12 runs in their last six games good for an average of 2.0 runs. And honestly, I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Baltimore didn't surpass that average today. Sean O'Sullivan (3-1, 5.12) gets the call for the Halos and he's been exponentially better on the highway this season, posting a 3-1 record with a 3.47 ERA in four road starts. As strange as it may seem, his strikeouts rise, his hits and walks drop and Sully goes deeper into ball games when he's away from Angels Stadium. And L.A. has given the right-hander 6.8 runs of support per start.
Jeremy Guthrie (7-12, 5.43) is on the hill for Baltimore and his season (like the O's) is in a downward spiral with no end in sight. Guthrie is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA his last four starts and he's 1-4 with a 5.67 ERA since the All-Star break. He's the anti-Johan Santana/C.C. Sabathia, meaning he can't win after the break. To make things even worse, Guthrie hasn't won a single start against the American League West this season (0-5, 7.83 vs. ALW) and I do not expect him to tame the Angels, who lead the Majors with a .290 batting average and have plated 36 runs their last five games. It just so happens that Torii Hunter is expected to return to the fray Sunday as well, so that's just another added bonus.
I always talk about how disciplined Mike Scoscia's ball club is and how versatile they are at the plate. Well, the most important attribute of the Angels is the way they're able to kick teams when they're down. Baltimore has no business winning this series and I'm extremely confident that when the dust settles, Los Angeles will come out victorious and win yet another series. L.A. is 6-2 this season against the Orioles and Baltimore hasn't won a series against the Angels since April 2006.
Play the Halos as your Sunday top play and seventh 30 dime winner in as many chances.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Phillies/Braves Under
Marc Lawrence
LA Dodgers
Wayne Root
Billionaire Texas Rangers
Scott Rickenbach
ESPN BLOWOUT 7-0 TV RUN
Philadelphia Phillies
Lee Kostroski
8* MLB ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK
Atlanta Braves
Craig Davis
20 DIME - PHILLIES (With Happ and Vazquez as listed pitchers)
PHILLIES (with Happ and Vazquez) --- This is turning out to be a very exciting series as the Braves continue to chase the Phils while the road team is trying to create a little distance between themselves and Florida and Atlanta. The Phillies should have taken Saturday's game, but closer Brad Lidge blew his 8th save of the year and Atlanta ended up winning 4-3. You know what's funny... I actually contemplated releasing a 10-dime bonus play on the Phillies, but at the last moment I walked away from it basically because I got wet feet. Something didn't feel right. Can you imagine how pissed I'd be had I released that play and lost another game in the 9th inning (Texas blew it in the 9th Friday). I think that blown save by Lidge will light a fire under Philly's butts and they will come out and give Javier Vazquez a whipping like he hasn't had in a while.
There's no doubt Vazquez has pitched well this year as evidenced by his 2.90 ERA, but his 4.41 career ERA vs. Philly along with his last outing against them has me thinking he just doesn't like pitching against Philadephia very much. Granted, his overall W/L record is 11-7, but his other numbers are, at best, average and I'm not sure he's coming into this contest with a lot of confidence. The Phils own the league's best road record (36-20) and, for whatever reason, seem to want to play away from home. Had they won yesterday's affair, the Phillies would be sitting on a 5-game road winning streak and I'm not sure I'd count on them to be able to make it 6 in a row. Having lost the way they did, I'm liking them even more... especially with J.A. Happ on the hill.
Happ (8-2, 2.75 ERA) has been absolutely filthy over his last three starts, allowing just four earned runs over 21 innings of work while posting a 2-1 record. Happ's last start vs. Atlanta resulted in 7 innings, 7 hits and just two earned runs. Though he lost the game, he pitched well enough to win and I don't see the Phillies failing him this time around. Happ's career record vs. Atlanta is 1-0 in three starts and his ERA is a respectable 2.49 including a .203 opponents' batting average. Happ will get the best of Vazquez tonight and the Phillies will win the rubber game of this series.
Kelso
15 units Phillies +120