Free Picks : Premium Service Plays for Sunday August 2, 2009

Dominic Fazzini

Sunday's play 10 Dime -- BRAVES (Jurrjens) over Dodgers (Billingsley)

BRAVES
NOTE: List only Jurrjens as Atlanta's starting pitcher

Braves starter Jair Jurrjens (9-7, 2.69 ERA) has quietly become one of the best right-handers in the National League.Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA over his last four starts, and has allowed one earned run and six hits in his last 20 2/3 innings at Turner Field. The 23-year-old Atlanta ace allowed two runs and seven hits in six innings Tuesday at Florida.Jurrjens hasn't faced the Dodgers yet this year, but he went 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts against them last season, allowing two runs and eight hits in 13 innings.Los Angeles starter Chad Billingsley (10-6, 3.96) won nine games by mid-June, but has triumphed just once with a 6.46 ERA in his last eight starts. The right-hander allowed six runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday at St. Louis.Billingsley has had troubles with Atlanta in the past, going 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA in four appearances (two starts). He allowed nine earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in two outings against the Braves last year.The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last six games in Atlanta, and I don't see that improving today. Go with the Braves in this one.

Hottest Service
Since All Star Break
Record Listed
http://www.thespread.com/forum/index.php?topic=65077.0

Scott Delaney

Sunday ... 15-Dime Red Sox -1' Runs
(I am taking whomever pitches for Boston over Berken) - This should be easy money, as I’m siding against Jason Berken wholeheartedly. After all, the Orioles are 0-3 in his last three starts, he’s sporting a 7.16 ERA in those games, he’s 1-8 with a 6.21 ERA in 2009 and Baltimore has lost 10 of his 12 starts this season.Those are some horrendous numbers to come in with, especially with the Red Sox aiming for a shot to get back into first place in the American League East, with an upcoming series with the Yankees around the corner.Yesterday’s 4-0 win clinched Boston’s ninth straight series win over the O’s, while it improved to 25-10 in Baltimore since 2005. Meanwhile, the Orioles dropped to 4-11 since the All-Star break and looked terrible in going 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position.That offense won’t catch any breaks today, as it’s scheduled to face Clay Buchholz, who comes in after tossing 5-2/3 innings of two-run ball last Tuesday, when he struck out a season-high five in what ended up being a 9-8 loss to Oakland at Fenway Park. He took the no-decision, so after what was a respectable outing, I like my chances in him finishing the job today.

15-Dime Rays -1' Runs
(I am taking whomever pitches for Tampa over whomever is going for Kansas City) - A 15-3 edge over the first two games of this series, and there’s no reason to believe the Rays can’t pull off the blowout win in the series finale.

The Royals come in on a 3-12 slide as an underdog and will be playing their seventh straight road game in as many days. Tampa Bay is in on winning runs of 9-3 versus the American League Central, 91-37 at the Trop and 24-6 in this series, including all eight meetings this season. Meanwhile, the Royals stumble into this one on a plethora of losing streaks, including 15-38 off a loss, 2-7 on the road, 7-21 against winning teams and 6-24 after giving up five or more runs their last time out (last night’s final was 7-1).I said much of the same yesterday, and believe it’s all relevant in this one today. Lay the run line with Tampa Bay, which will crush the road-weary Royals once again.

15-Dime Tigers (WITH Galararraga over Pavano)
Off a solid extra-inning win yesterday, the Tigers will finish up with their American League Central rivals by knocking them off for the ninth time in 12 meetings this season. Though Cleveland won the opener 6-5 on Friday night, these two have gone into extra innings in games one and two, and I don’t believe the Indians will have enough left in the tank for the series finale.Detroit starter Armando Galarraga will be glad to start August after a winless July, and I don’t mind backing the right-hander, knowing his record is far from indicative of how well Galarraga has pitched the past month. Galarraga sported an impressive 3.29 ERA in four July starts, scattering 21 hits over 27-1/3 innings while fanning 18 batters. Durability was a strong point, as three of his last four starts lasted at least seven innings, with the lone exception being a six-inning performance. He’ll be pitching in revenge for a July 11 loss to the Indians and Carl Pavano.The Cleveland right-hander, who is sporting a 5.66 ERA this season, has given up 13 runs total against the Blue Jays and Angels in his last two starts and now faces a Tigers team that is scrapping to maintain its standing atop the Central division. That’s not exactly a good thing for Pavano, who gave up eight home runs in those two games. The long ball could be an issue today, and I’m going to be on the right side of them.

Before You Invest
Look at the Record In Red
http://www.thespread.com/forum/index.php?topic=65077.msg156762#msg156762

Jeff Benton

20 DIME: BRAVES (Jurrjens) over Dodgers ... NOTE: List Jair Jurrjens as Atlanta's starting pitcher. If Jurrjens does NOT start, this play is VOID!

Braves
Ever so quietly, Jair Jurrjens has put together some incredible numbers and emerged as the Braves’ bona fide ace this year. No, his 9-7 record isn’t very attractive, nor is his team’s 11-11 mark when Jurrjens pitches. However, those records don’t come close to reflecting how strong the right-hander has been this season. For a more accurate depiction of Jurrjens’ abilities, get a load of these stats:He has a 2.69 ERA, which is sixth-lowest in the National League; he has a 2.51 ERA in 11 home starts (including giving up just one run in his last three at home); he’s allowing barely a baserunner per inning (159 combined hits and walks allowed in 134 innings); and he has 93 strikeout against 48 walks overall (nearly a 2-to-1 ratio). Also, in Jurrjens’ 22 starts, he’s given up three earned runs or fewer 19 times, two earned or less 17 times and one or no earned runs on nine occasions, and he’s pitched at least six innings in 17 of his last 18 starts that weren’t interrupted by rain.Jurrjens enters this game against the Dodgers on a roll, having given up a total of five runs and 17 hits in his last four starts covering 25 2/3 innings (1.75 ERA). The Braves won the first three of those games – beating Colorado 4-3 on the road and the Mets (11-0) and Giants (4-2 at home) – before suffering a tough 4-3 loss at Florida on Monday.And for good measure, look at what Jurrjens did in two starts against the Dodgers last season: He gave up a run on three hits in seven innings of a 6-1 home win last April, then surrendered just a run on five hits over six innings of a 9-3 road victory last July. Those two runs allowed in 13 innings equates to a 1.39 ERA. By comparison, Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley also faced the Braves twice last season and went 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA – including going opposite Jurrjens in that 9-3 Atlanta win in Los Angeles.Speaking of Billingsley, the Dodgers’ ace has hit a big-time wall. Over his last four starts, he’s gotten tagged for 19 runs (all earned) in just 18 1/3 innings (9.33 ERA). L.A. split those four games, including a 10-0 loss at St. Louis on Monday, and the Dodgers are just 3-5 in his last eight trips to the mound (2-3 on the road). One sure sign that the hard-throwing Billingsley isn’t right: He has 11 walks against 16 strikeouts during his four-start funk after enjoying a 115-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 18 starts.With this game being played at night, it’s also interesting to note that Billingsley’s ERA under the lights (4.40) is nearly twice as high as Jurrjens’ ERA in night games (2.52). Throw in the fact that the Braves have won 11 of their last 14 home games, eight of their last 11 as a favorite, and five straight games against the N.L. West with Jurrjens starting, and I’ll lay this very reasonable price – especially considering this a very tough spot for the Dodgers, who are wrapping up a seven-game road trip with a less-than-desired night game, after which they’ll board a long red-eye flight back to L.A.

Al DeMarco

5 Dime - St. Louis (Wainwright) - 1 1/2 Runs over Houston (Norris)
Houston had re-entered the thick of the N.L. Central race after a three-game home sweep of St. Louis July 20-22. But since a home win against the Mets on July 24, the Astros have slumped badly, losing seven of eight, scoring no more than three runs in any of the setbacks.Since that sweep in Houston, the Cardinals have rebounded nicely, going on a 7-3 tear in their last 10 games, the last nine of which coincided with the arrival of Matt Holliday, who is batting .606 with three homers and 10 RBIs since being acquired from Oakland.St. Louis, already 5-1 on its current seven-game homestand, has won seven of nine against Houston at Busch Stadium the past two seasons combined.The Cardinals' Adam Wainwright has quietly become a 12-game winner (12-6 with a 2.80 ERA) following a tremendous month of July in which he went 4-1 with a 1.17 ERA in six starts. He is 6-0 with a 1.91 ERA in seven career starts versus the Astros, including an April 11 victory against them this season in which pitched five innings of four-hit, shutout ball.With Roy Oswalt injured, Houston is turning to Bud Norris for today's game. He was 4-9 with a 2.63 ERA in 19 starts for Triple-A Round Rock, and just made his major league debut with three innings of one-run relief at Wrigley Field on Wednesday.Despite playing this game on the Run Line, the price of this contest is still hovering around -135 or -140 because of Houston's recent slump and Wainwright's career domination of the Astros. However, with the Astros struggling to put runs on the board, and the Cardinals seeking to complete payback for July's three-game sweep in Houston, I've got the bankroll to make this somewhat higher priced investment.

Chris Jordan

100♦ WHITE SOX (Action) - Sorry Yankees fans, but you’re giving me a home underdog on a three-game winning streak with arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball? Fine with me, I’m rolling with the White Sox in this series finale, as it appears they have New York’s number, while the Bombers are showing that weariness with a suitcase in hand once again.All due respect to C.C. Sabathia, but Mark Buehrle comes into this one after setting a Major League record by retiring 45 straight hitters, dating back to the last out he recorded in a start against Baltimore on July 18. The southpaw, who is 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA this season, followed up his perfect game by retiring the first 17 Minnesota hitters he faced last Tuesday. Though he took the loss, this game today could be his best overall performance, considering the talent he’ll be facing. I know he has a 1-5 record with a 6.11 ERA lifetime against the Yankees, one of only four individual team losing records for the southpaw, but that should be even more motivation for him.This marks Buehrle’s first meeting with the Yankees this season, in which the Pale Hose have won 15 of his 21 starts this season. This is the perfect spot for the suddenly hot Sox, as they’ve won three straight and the Yankees are playing their seventh straight road game in as many days. Let’s take a shot with the home pup tonight.

100♦ BLUE JAYS (LIST Romero/Mazzaro)
This should also be a pitching mismatch, I just don’t know how much I can trust the Blue Jays on the road, so I’m going to be cautious on how much I throw on the boys from north of the border. I do like this young kid Ricky Romero, though. He was sharp in his only start against the Athletics on April 19, giving up four hits with six strikeouts in seven innings of a 1-0 win, so that’ll be motivation to negate his last start, in which he wasn’t as sharp against the Mariners, despite a six-inning performance in an 11-4 win.The southpaw gave up four runs and 10 hits, but I watched part of this game and was enthused the way he was aggressive in the zone and challenged hitters to contact the ball. Romero, who has been reliable all season, has the second-most quality starts (11) in the Majors for a rookie. Romero is 3-0 with a 3.93 ERA in his last five road starts, since allowing one run in 6-1/3 innings of a 1-0 loss at Texas on June 11, while the Jays have won seven of his last nine starts overall.For Oakland, it’s 22-year-old Vin Mazzaro, someone I’ve made money by going against throughout the 2009 campaign. He is winless in nine straight assignments, while the A’s have lost eight of those games. Over those starts, he’s given up 35 earned runs over 47-1/3 innings for a rather high 6.65 ERA, while giving up an average of 7.4 hits per outing. Toronto has won 11 of the last 14 meetings, no reason to fight that today. Lay the road chalk.

100♦ MARLINS (LIST Nolasco/Dempster)
Tough card today, quite honestly, as Sundays have been tremendously weird for me. But I’m going to take a shot with these Fish today, and will do it while banking on Ricky Nolasco to outpitch Chicago’s Ryan Dempster.Let’s start with the Florida right-hander, who was forced to take a no decision his last time out even though he held the Braves to two runs on seven hits over seven innings while striking out five. His durability emerged, however, as he pitched himself out of several jams at home. The Marlins are 2-1 in his last three starts, in which he has a 2.79 ERA – much better than the season number of 5.24. Nolasco is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in three career starts against the Cubs.Starting for Chicago, it’s a very rusty Dempster, who didn’t look like himself in his first outing in 3-1/2 weeks. After being sidelined with a broken right big toe, suffered July 5 in a freak dugout accident, he threw 85 pitches over five innings and gave up six runs on nine hits. He wasn't sharp at all, and consistently had trouble finding his location. Looking inside the numbers, the Cubs are on losing streaks of 16-36 as the road pup, 2-6 on the road against a winning team, 1-6 with Dempster on the hill, 2-12 when he’s listed as the road underdog and 1-11 in his last 12 on the highway overall.With just one win in Dempster’s last seven starts, and now having to face a Marlins team that has won eight of their last 11 and seven of Nolasco’s last nine starts, I’ll side with the home team, lay the low chalk and list both hurlers.

Craig Davis

40 DIME ---- RANGERS (With Feldman) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over MARINERS (With Snell)

Jake Timlin

400♦ Chicago White Sox

List both Buehrle & Sabathia as starting pitchers or this play is void

Take the White Sox as they earn the four game sweep of the Yankees.Having won the last three games by a whopping 27-11 I now expect for the White Sox to continue hot hand as they finish off the Yankees with another easy win today. Helping pave the way will be Buehrle who returns to the same mound where he tossed a perfect game in his last home start and where the lefty is 15-1 with an ERA of 2.32 over his last 21 home starts.Now countering for the Yankees will be Sabathia who let’s face it has not lived up to his lofty contract this season due to his 10-7 record this year and a mark that won’t get any better due to CC’s current struggles verse Chicago going 0-1 mark and a 4.28 ERA in his last four outings.Simple, given the way Chicago has dominated the first three games of this series and now throw the hottest pitcher in the game I more than expect for the White Sox to earn the four game sweep of the Evil Empire.

All Chicago!

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Number 3 Service Now
Jake Timlin
Record since All Star Break
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igz1 sports

3* Kansas City RL +1.5 (+120) (Bannister)
3* Chicago Whitesox +115 (Buehrle)
3* Toronto -130 (Rommero)
3* Over 10 (-105) LA Angels vs Minnesota

Charlie Sports

mlb. wasington @ pittsburgh under 8' runs,
dodgers @ braves under 8 runs
yankees @ white sox under 8' runs( 500* 3 team rd robin).
mlb. pirates-125 (30*)
mlb. mets-115 (20*)
mlb. atlanta-120 (20*)
mlb. yankees-145 (10*)

mlb. florida-115 (10*) free play

Paul Leiner

100* Yankees -140
50* Over 9.5 Det/Cle
25* Pirates -130

Tony Salinas

26* Cardinals {A.Wainwright} (-280) over Astros {B.Norris}
25* Braves {J.Jurrjens} (-120) over Dodgers {C.Billinsgsle}
24* La Angels {Jer.Weaver}/Twins {G.Perkins} OVER 10 Runs

Larry Ness

25 Units Minnesota Twins

Seabass

300* yanks
100* st louis
100 * angels/twins under
50* detriot/clev Over

Alfred Kelley

TAKE BOSTON RED SOX ON THE MONEY LINE.
TAKE LOS ANGELES ANGELS ON THE MONEY LINE.