ATS LOCK
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4 Units Mariners
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4 Units Pirates
Frank Patron
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10000 Unit Lock
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Baltimore / Chicago Over 9.5
Sam Clayton
30 DIME - NYY/BOS UNDER 9
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Another highly anticipated showdown between the Yankees and Red Sox, but more importantly, another highly anticipated 30 dime play from yours truly. As I did with our big winner on the SF/CIN Under just three days ago, I circled tonight's game as soon as the pitching matchups were announced. And here we are in a perfect position to destroy the books again and the line is even moving in our favor! The first two games of this series were full of offensive explosions from both teams and the average bettor is forecasting a high scoring contest on Sunday night as well. However, I'm not that naive.
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Sunday Night Baseball in Boston features two of baseball's premiere pitchers in C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) and Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.38), both of whom are no strangers to the national spotlight, and both of whom are no strangers to pitching in big time spots. The calender now reads August and it's make-or-break time for postseason contenders. It's the time when experienced pitchers buckle down and contain the opposition. These two AL East rivals are pulling out all the stops and strolling out elite pitchers on the national stage. This spot showcases the epitome of all the huge contracts and the millions of dollars in bonuses, and pitching in games like these brings out the competitive drive in the best players. You know damn well that both Sabathia and Beckett want the ball and they possess the swing-and-miss type arsenals that can keep the opposing hitters at bay. This game is going to be a full scale pitching battle. Expect nothing less.
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Both starters are very familiar with these hitters and they've had great success against each other this season. Against the Sawx in 2009, Sabathia is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA while Beckett is 2-0 with a 4.12 ERA versus the Yankees. It gets better though because these two aces are peaking in the dog days of summer, which is the perfect time because of all the added pressure that comes with pennant races. The last three starts for each pitcher -- Sabathia (3-0, 1.14 ERA, 0.65 WHIP) and Beckett (1-0, 4.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) -- perfectly indicate that these two aces continue to be successful in big spots and that they won't shy away from a challenge tonight. There is going to be so much added pressure on these two offenses to score runs that I think essentially we're going to see so many anxious swings from players that are trying to hit the ball out of the yard. Advantage: Pitchers.
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Those that have been following my picks know that I'm a strong advocate of important intangibles when I see them. And today I've got another one: Boston and New York have squared off 14 times this season with the under hitting eight times and six of the last nine. This matchup has cashed the under four of eight times at Fenway Park and on Sunday Night Baseball just two weeks ago, these two clubs produced an under on national television. An added bonus, eight of the last ten Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts have sailed under the posted total as well. I'm extremely confident that Sabathia and Beckett will bring their 'A' games and make this a pitching duel for the ages. They aren't scared of the bright lights and they are used to the hype. And I fully expect a low scoring contest given the added importance of tonight's game.
Play the UNDER
Kiki Sports
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1* Reds +130
2* Mariners -1.5 -110
1* Giants/Rockies UNDER 8
1* Yankees +105
1* Padres +175
HalfBets
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9* St Louis / San Diego Over 9
Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Play. Take Under 8 between the San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Let's take the Under today in Coors Field. There were 25 runs scored yesterday and I don't expect that type of fireworks today with Lincecum and Jiminez on the mound. Lincecum is competing for the best era in the league as well as for a Cy Young and he comes off a 5 earned run performance at Cincinatti which propelled his era to 2.37. That was one of just 2 non-quality starts for Lincecum over his last 10. To give you some perspective, Lincecum had given up 4 runs over his last 4 games which spanned a total of nearly 35 innings prior to giving up 5 earned runs in six innings in his last start. I expect a strong effort from him today. Not to be outdone, Jiminez has pitched 8 straight quality starts and is 5-0 over his last 7 starts and his last 8 of 10 have gone Under. Considering yesterday was such a display of offense, I look for something to the contrary today as this game will likely be picher's duel.
4 Unit Play. Take the San Antonio Silver Stars PK against the Detroit Shock
Well, we're back at it going against the Shock. Keep in mind this is a must win for the Silver Stars. SA comes off a brutal loss to the Sparks at home and are tied with Minnesota at 11-15 for a playoff birth out west. Detroit comes off a big win over Chicago and I expect them to possibly have a let down at home. Also, note that this game is a pick-em despite Detroit being at home and coming off a big win. That should also be an indicator of Vegas expecting San Antonio to do well. Whenever SA comes off back to back losses, they do well and win the next game SU. This was the case when they lost on the road to Seattle and Sacramento on the road, they came back to beat the Sparks on the road in the next game. Such was the case when they lost back to back games to Sacramento and at Phoenix, only to defeat Phoenix at home in the next game. I look for Sophia Young and Becky Hammon to show the leadership to get this win on the road today. The Silver Stars are 8-3 ATS following a straight up loss and the Shock are 0-5 ATS following an ATS win.
HalfBets
9* St Louis / San Diego Over 9
7* Indians +136
Ben Burns
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10* NYY / Boston Under
JACK JONES
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15* Pittsburgh Pirates -135
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The Pirates just keep on rolling while the Reds seem to have totally given up on the season. Pitt has won 5 games in a row and is scoring over 5 runs per game over the past week. The Reds have lost 6 of their last 7, are 20 games under .500 for the season, and are hitting just .219 as a team and scoring about 3 runs per game over their last 7 contests. The Reds start Homer Bailey, a young prospect they have been trying to work into the rotation for a few years now. Bailey has struggled in the majors this year, going just 2-4 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 11 starts. The way the Pirates are rolling right now they are a solid bet over the Reds on Sunday.
KELSO STURGEON
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15 Units Rangers (+135) over Devilrays
Jim Feist
15* High Roller Total
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MILWAUKEE BREWERS at WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Take: Milw/Wash Over
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The two teams that allow the most runs per game meet here on Sunday. The Nationals are worst in the NL (5.39 rpg) while the Brewers aren't far behind (5.03 rpg). Brewers' pitchers have also allowed the most home runs in the leage (164) while National pitchers are 2nd worst in free passes (463). Manny Parra starts today for the Brewers. Parra is 2-1 his last three starts with a 6.35 ERA and is 8-9 overall with a 6.33 ERA. Craig Stammen will counter for the Nats. Stammen is 3-6 on the season with a 5.13 ERA and in his one game against the M's this season he allowed five earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings. Despite both teams having terrible pitching, both are above the league average in runs scored by their offenses. Today's contest looks like a slug fest as neither team has much pitching, but decent hitting. Take the OVER
5* Sunday Night Baseball
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NEW YORK YANKEES at BOSTON RED SOX
Take: NEW YORK YANKEES
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The scores in this series have been more like the NY Giants and NE Patriots were playing. The Yankees scored over 20 runs on Friday and then the Red Sox come back with 14 on Saturday. The Sox have pretty much resigned themselves to a Wild Card shot as they trail the Yankees by 6 1/2 games in the AL East. It looks as though the CC Sabathia the Yankees thought they had drafted has finally emerged. Sabathia has been dominant his last three starts with a 3-0 record and 1.14 ERA. Moreover, Sabathia has 26 KO's compared to just five BB's. Josh Beckett starts for the Sox here and he's also having a fine season with a 14-4 record and 3.38 ERA. Beckett's lifetime ERA against the Yankees is 5.03 in 16 games while Sabathia has a 3.57 ERA against the Yankees in nine games. Don't expect to see the same offensive output these teams have been displaying the last couple of games here tonight. For us, it's just too hard to pass on Sabathia who is red-hot and the Yankees who want to make up for Saturday's drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox.
Ben Burns
10* NYY / Boston Under
*7 Sunday Afternoon Roast
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (Romero)-130 over Los Angeles Angels(Bell)
Reason: I'm playing on TORONTO. It's tough to go against the Angels, as they're among the best teams in baseball. However, I feel that this will be a favorable situation and matchup to do so. For starters, this is the final game of a long (10 game) Eastern road trip. After this, the Angels return home to LA in preparation for tomorrow's game vs. Detroit. They last played a home game way back on Aug. 12th and it could be easy for them to get caught looking ahead to the return trip. More importantly, I feel that the pitching matchup will favor the Jays. Ricky Romero gets the call and he's been one of Toronto's better pitchers. For the season, he's gone 10-5 with a solid 3.95 ERA, averaging better than six innings per start. When looking closer into Romero's record, we find that he's been much better when pitching during the afternoon, than he has been during the evening. At night, he's just 4-4 with a 4.78 ERA. However, he's an impressive 6-1 with a 2.98 ERA in his eight daytime starts. Trevor Bell has made two starts. While he does have a 1-0 record, he's barely been mediocre. In his first start, which came in the afternoon, he allowed nine hits and four runs in 5 1/3 innings. His second start, which came in the evening, was very similar, as he allowed nine hits and three runs in 5 1/3 innings. That translates to a combined 5.91 ERA and 1.97 WHIP - which isn't very good at all - including a 6.75 ERA in his daytime start. Even with yesterday's setback, the Jays are still 11-7 the last 18 times that they were a host in this series. I expect Romero to be the better of the two young starters and for the Jays to grab the rubber game of this series. *7 Sunday Afternoon Roast
TONY BRUNO WINS
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10x YANKS UNDER
Wunderdog
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Game: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
5 units Pittsburgh -140 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 3.6)
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Both of these teams sit at 51-71, but the outcome of this game shouldn't be as close. The Pirates looks for their sixth straight win here as the young players are starting to gel. They Pirates offense has been stellar, outscoring their opponents 34-12 during this run. At home they are a winning teams at 33-27, averaging 4.7 runs per game. On the road, the Reds are 25-36, averaging just 4.0 runs per game. They've lost seven of their last eight. And, they start a pitcher who has been deficient all season long. Homer Bailey owns a 7.53 ERA in twelve starts and over his last three starts, it's up to 9.25! Over the past two seasons, Cincy is 3-16 with Bailey on the mound. In their last 13 games vs. losing teams, the Reds are just 3-10. Pitt is the easy call here.
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Game: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
3 units Pittsburgh -1.5 runs +150 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.5)
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On the run line this year, Cincinnati is 53-69 for -30.4 units (27-34 for -20.8 units on the road). Pittsburgh is 66-55 against the run line overall and 36-24 for +13.8 units at home. The Reds have been outscored the past eight games by a combined score of 44-21. Homer Bailey has been shelled this season, lasting just 5.0 innings per start, giving up nearly one run per inning pitched! The Pirates offense has been big-time, averaging nearly six runs per game over their past five games. I like the value on Pitt here at +150 odds.
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Game: San Francisco at Colorado
4 units Colorado -110 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
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It's still August but it feels like the September stretch run is here as the Giants and Rockies battle in a series that will likely have playoff implications. The Giants send ace Tim Lincecum and his 12-3 record to the mound. The betting public loves this guy and as such, we get value here on the Rockies. Let's not forget that the Giants are on the road in this game, facing a very good Colorado team. Lincecum is not unbeatable. Two of his three losses have come in his seven road games. And, he's coming off a beating at the hands of the Reds. He's opposed here by Ubaldo Jimenez who has been very impressive in his own right. He's got a 3.41 ERA and is super-hot right now. In his last three starts, he's 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA. So the pitching matchup here is not very lopsided at all. Then we look at offense and that's where we see the lopsidedness of this game. The Giants average 3.8 runs per game on the road while Colorado gets 5.9 per game at home. This season the Rockies have not shriveled when playing good teams. They are 15-4 vs. teams at .540 to .620. I like the Rockies at home here.
Power Play Wins
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Detroit Tigers -128