Indian Cowboy
NFL Preseason GOY. 2 Unit Play. Take Over 38.5 Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos
This game will have a regular season game type atmosphere. Given the off-season hooplah and drama, both teams will get an early look as to how they have fared since the trade. Granted, it is way too early to tell which team has fared better overall. Only time will tell. Nevertheless, this is the only game that is slated for Sunday and certainly emotions will be high as Cutler faces his old team in his old stadium and Orton faces his old team who comes to visit. And, bear in mind that there are many coaches and executives who took part in this deal so emotions will be high and all involved will want to show their best. Someone who was not at their best in their last contest was Kyle Orton. Orton struggled terribly at Seattle throwing 1 touchdown but four interceptions as Denver fell short 13-27. Cutler played well for the most part against the Giants at home throwing for nearly 200 years and one touchdown with one interception. Given that Cutler faces his old team, Orton faces his old team, Orton comes off a miserable performance, and this is the only game on Sunday - a night game at that, I expect there to be plenty of offense on display. More importantly, I expect for all involved to go for the win despite this game meaning nothing in the regular season win count - but it goes a long way for early pride. I look for both teams to top 20 points as this game likely goes over.
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Chi Bears +2.5
Sean Michaels
25 DIME PLAY - Chicago Bears
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Note: I want you to purchase insurance on this play. If you have Chicago at +2 1/2, buy up the half-point to +3 to insure you get a push should the Bears lose by a field goal.
If you have Chicago at +3, buy the additional half-point to move the line to +3 1/2, which would result in you getting the win should the Bears lose by three points.
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If this line happens to drop to +2, there is no need to purchase any insurance, but it still remains Sunday's lone release.
Craig Davis
50 DIME - TIGERS (With Verlander) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over RAYS (With Niemann)
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Despite scoring just one run in yesterday's 3-1 loss to David Price and the Tampa Bay Rays, I still believe the Tigers are the best play on the board today because it's not very often Justin Verlander loses at home... especially during the day. A few untimely errors cost the Tigers a chance to win yesterday's contest, but I'm not sure they were in the right frame of mind to get it done anyhow, scoring just one run late in the game. Today, I can guarantee you those same players who committed the errors are looking to make amends and get this team back on the winning track.
You see, the Tigers play much better at home and must win these types of games if they want to keep their lead in the AL Central. Detroit is 41-21 at home while the Rays are just 27-37 on the road, and it's not often the Tigers lose a game at home when the series is on the line. After winning game one but dropping game two, this is a pivotal rubber match that has a decided pitching advantage for the home team. The aforementioned Verlander is not only 7-2 at home with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, but he's also 6-2 during day game starts with a miniscule 1.54 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, not to mention the fact opponents are hitting just .185 against him.
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Critics will point to his rather "average" August as a reason to stay away, but I believe he's just about to turn it around just as he did in 2007... a similar season to 2009. After struggling much of August, he turned it around in his last start of that month (Aug. 27th) was a major home win over the Yankees... 16-0. He pitched 7 shutout innings in the win and that catapulted him back to the top of his game. That's going to happen again this afternoon, starting with the Rays at home.
Verlander went on to allow just one earned run in each of his next three starts and finished the season with five wins in his last seven starts... and it started with that late August shutout win over the Yankees. We have all the makings of a complete game shutout for Verlander this afternoon, and although I won't go that far, I will say that Verlander is well overdue for one of these types of performances, and the fact that the Rays seem to be in a bit of an offensive slump right now only makes things better for our side. The Tigers have won 10 of their last 13 home games, 6 of their last 7 Sunday starts, and 21 of their last 28 game after the opponent scores two or less runs with Verlander on the hill.
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Tampa counters with Jeff Niemann, and although his season ERA is a respectable 3.87, it's hard to ignore the fact that he appears to be slowing down, showing signs of fatigue. After a stretch of games in which he pitched seven or more innings allowing just one or two runs, he's now on a run of four straight games going less than seven innings while allowing four or more earned runs in three of those four. His fastball has lost a little velocity and he's having some control problems with his breaking stuff, walking three runners in two his last three starts. Seriously, do you trust a guy like Niemann in a situation like this when each game becomes more and more like a playoff atmosphere? Or do you trust Verlander and his proven track record?
This one will be decided by the 7th inning. Tigers roll the Rays today.
Anthony Redd
20 Dime Broncos
Dominic Fazzini
20 Dime - TWINS (Baker) over Rangers (Millwood)
Scott Baker (12-7, 4.47 ERA) easily has been the Twins' top starter over the past two months.
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The right-hander is 10-1 since June 1, and has gone 6-0 with a 3.10 ERA over his last nine outings, with wins in his last three starts. He allowed one run and four hits in seven innings Monday in a 2-1 victory over Baltimore.
Baker also is 2-0 in two outings against the Rangers this season, giving up five runs and 15 hits while striking out 14 in 13 1/3 innings.
Texas starter Kevin Millwood (10-8, 3.63) has faded after a very strong first half of the season. He got his first win since July 20 on Tuesday despite giving up five runs on seven hits and five walks in 5 2/3 innings at Yankee Stadium.
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Millwood has just two wins in his last nine starts, and he is 3-6 with a 4.56 ERA in 12 road starts this year.
The veteran right-hander allowed five runs and seven hits in 5 2/3 innings in a 5-4 loss to Minnesota on Aug. 19. That dropped Millwood's career record against the Twins to 0-7 with a 6.18 ERA in 11 starts.
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With Millwood's miserable track record against Minnesota, and Baker's sharp performances over the past couple of months, I don't see Texas having much of a chance in this one. Take the Twins today.
igz1 sports
3* Chicago +2.5
ATS LOCK
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3 Units Giants
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3 Units Marlins
Red Dog Sports
3* Hou / Ariz Under
Kelso
10 units Bears +2.5
Al DeMarco
5 Dime - Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) - 1 1/2 Runs over New York Mets (Figueroa)
Carlos Zambrano was awful against Washington on Tuesday in his first start since August 1, allowing a season-high eight runs in 4.1 innings. But that was, as noted, his first outing since being sidelined by a back injury, and it came against a good-hitting Washington team.
Today Chicago's less-than-stellar ace faces an injury-riddled New York lineup missing Wright, Reyes, Delgado, Beltran among others. No surprise New York has dropped nine of 11 entering the contest. And injuries haven't only wreaked havoc with the Mets' offense as Nelson Figueroa gets the spot start at Chicago because of injuries to Santana and Perez.
Figueroa is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA in four career starts versus the Cubs.
Zambrano is 4-1 with a 3.76 career ERA in seven starts versus the Mets.
The Cubs, who have won two straight and four of six, are coming off an 11-4 rout of New York on Saturday. They've won four straight and 14 of 19 at Wrigley Field in the series.
Chicago's offense has come to life suddenly, plating 35 runs the past five games after scoring just six times in the previous four. With expectations of Zambrano returning to form, and New York scoring three runs or less in seven of its last 11 games, laying the 1 1/2 runs is worth the investment.
BEN BURNS
FLORIDA MARLINS - SAN DIEGO PADRES UNDER 9
The first two games of this series have both produced double-digits in combined runs. I expect a lower-final score in this afternoon's finale. Both starters will have the advantage of starting against today's opponent for the first time and both were exceptional last time out. West allowed one run through six innings. He earned the "W" in a 2-1 Florida victory. That gives him a 2.81 ERA his last three starts and marks his second straight start which stayed below the total. Meanwhile, Latos tossed seven shutout innings in his last start, a game which also stayed below the total, also with a final score of 2-1. For the season, Latos has seen six of his eight starts stay below the total. That includes a 3-1 UNDER record in his four road starts. With the Padres averaging less than four runs per game vs. southpaws and also when playing during the afternoon, I expect a relatively low-scoring affair. *8 Blue Chip
Kiki Sports
2* SF Giants
Jim Feist
5* Inner Circle High Heat Dominator!
HOUSTON ASTROS at ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Take: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Houston surprised a lot of people this year as they contended for the NL Central lead for a good part of the season. However, they have fallen back now and trail St Louis by 13 games in the division and have too many teams to climb over for the Wild Card. As for the Diamondbacks, well the good news is they are in the same division as the Padres so that means they are not in last place just yet. Both teams will toss their aces today as Wandy Rodriquez starts for the Astros and Dan Haren for the D'backs. Rodriquez is 12-8 on the season with a 2.82 ERA. Rodriguez got bombed for 10 earned runs on August 14th against the Brewers. However, if you toss that game out, he hasn't allowed more than one earned run since June 26th. There is a slight chance here that the Cubs will not start Rodriquez and save him for the Cubs. If that happens, we like our play on the D'backs even more. Still, Rodriquez and the Astros face Haren. Haren has a 2.73 ERA this season. Haren typically struggles in the 2nd half of the season, but is coming off a fine outing at San Francisco where he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings. What we love about Haren is his control and KO to BB ratio. Not only does Haren have 173 K's on the season, but he has walked just 27 batters in 181 innings. Taking Haren you know you are in the game. Take the D'backs.
Jeff Benton
10 Dime: BRAVES (Jurrjens) over Phillies ... NOTE: List Jair Jurrjens as Atlanta's starting pitcher. If Jurrjens does not start, this play is VOID!
5 Dime: A's-Angels UNDER the total ... NOTE: Both John Lackey (Angels) and Brett Anderson (A's) must start this game, or this play is VOID!
Braves
Joe Blanton got the best of Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens two weeks ago in Georgia, beating him 3-2. And as I’ve said a few times recently, Blanton has been pitching his ass off lately, delivering nine straight quality starts and allowing three earned runs or fewer in 11 straight outings and 15 of his last 16. So why fade the beefy right-hander tonight? Well, first and foremost, we’re getting value with Jurrjens.
Despite losing to Philadelphia on Aug 14, Jurrjens has been tremendous himself lately. He’s got a 2.18 ERA in his last three starts (including the loss to the Phillies), and he’s surrendered two earned runs or fewer and pitched at least six innings in seven of his last nine trips to the mound (including three of his last four starts on the road). Also, Jurrjens has been spectacular against this killer Phillies lineup all year, allowing a total of three runs (two earned, both on Aug. 14) in three starts covering 19 2/3 innings, good for a 0.92 ERA. And in three career starts in Philadelphia’s bandbox of a ballpark, Jurrjens has given up just two runs and 12 hits (no home runs) in 20 2/3 innings (0.87 ERA), with the Braves winning two of those games.
Now back to Blanton: Although he’s been dealing lately, the Phillies are just 2-3 in his last five starts. And prior to his strong start in Atlanta two weeks ago, Blanton had faced the Braves three times this year and given up 16 runs in 17 innings (8.47 ERA), with none of those three starts being quality efforts.
Yes, the Phillies have been playing tremendous baseball lately, and they’ve turned around what was once an awful home record. But the Braves aren’t a pushover. They’ve won five straight games as an underdog and six of their last eight on the road, and with last night's upset win over Cliff Lee in Phiadelphia, the Braves are now 11-5 in the last 16 meetings with the Phillies, including 7-3 in Philadelphia. Put it all together and I’ll take the plus money with Jurrjens and the visitors tonight.
A’s-Angels UNDER the total
The last time A’s lefty Brett Anderson matched up against the Angels’ John Lackey was back on July 19 in Oakland, and the two pitchers matched goose eggs for nine innings, with Los Angeles eventually pulling out a 1-0 victory in 10 innings. Anderson and Lackey combined to allow five hits and one walk in 17 shutout innings. Do I expect a duplicate performance from both pitchers today? That would be asking a lot! But I definitely think we’ll get a couple of quality starts from Anderson and Lackey and we’ll see another UNDER today.
For starters, Anderson has been a very underrated pitcher all season. The rookie has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts, lowering his ERA from 5.74 to 4.35 during this stretch. Impressively, Anderson has contained some of the best offenses in the American League during this stretch, including the Red Sox (twice), Yankees (twice), Rays, Angels and Rangers. During this 12-start stretch for Anderson, there have been more than nine combined runs scored just four times, including his last two starts, which the A’s lost by scores of 3-2 and 4-2.
As for Lackey, his dominating July 19 performance in Oakland was hardly stunning. The guy has owned the A’s his entire career, going 15-4 with a 2.66 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and a .226 batting-average against in 27 starts covering 176 innings. The big right-hander has delivered a quality start 11 times in his last 12 outings against Oakland, giving up two earned runs or fewer in eight of those games (including one run or less in four of the last five). In this 12-start stretch for Lackey versus the A’s, the under is 9-2-1.
Some more under trends to consider: For the A’s, the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall, 7-1 on the road, 6-1 when Anderson faces A.L. West rivals and 7-2 when facing right-handed starters, while the under is 6-1 in the Angels’ last seven against left-handed starters, 5-1 in Lackey’s last six starts on Sunday and 12-3-1 when Lackey finishes up a four-game series. Finally, this has been a very low-scoring rivalry the last two-plus years when they meet in Southern California, with the under going 35-16 in the last 51 meetings in Anaheim (2-1 this weekend).
Oh, one more thing: Today’s scheduled home-plate umpire is Ted Barrett. The last 11 times he’s put on the mask, the under has hit 10 times. And the under is 8-1 the last nine times Barrett has worked behind the dish in an Angels game. Throw in two offenses that have cooled up considerably over the past two weeks, and we’ll confidently play this one UNDER the inflated posted price.